{"id":15362,"date":"2022-06-12T15:15:58","date_gmt":"2022-06-12T15:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/?p=15362"},"modified":"2022-06-12T15:16:42","modified_gmt":"2022-06-12T15:16:42","slug":"thoughts-on-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/?p=15362","title":{"rendered":"Thoughts on Housing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Let&#8217;s talk housing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>30-year mortgage rates are now 5.2% (or thereabouts). This is a double off the low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Coupled with significantly higher prices, this has caused mortgage payments to shoot up. From <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/charliebilello\">Charlie Bilello<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>In Jan 2021, the 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.65% and average new home price in the US was $401,700.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, the 30-yr mortgage rate is 5.23%, and average new home price is $570,300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Assuming a 20% down payment, that&#8217;s a 94% increase in the monthly payment (from $1,294 to $2,514).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Applications for a mortgage fell 7% for the week and are 21% lower than the same week a year ago. This stat is at a 22-year low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Refinance demand dropped 6% for the week and is down 75% year-over-year. Those looking to pull money out of their house are doing it with a second mortgage, not a refi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are some comments\/quotes from builders around the country, via <a>Rick Palacios<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Austin builder: \u201cSome parts of town where finished homes are now taking a month to sell versus hours. Market is definitely correcting. Incentives are back and seeing some builders cutting prices on inventory.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baltimore builder: \u201cCustomers now mentioning potential reduction in prices and\/or increase in incentives.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bend builder: \u201cMarket drastically changed in last month. Traffic slowed significantly. Sellers of both new and used homes are dropping prices.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Birmingham builder: \u201cSteep decline in sales over past 2 weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boston builder: \u201cRecently started seeing drop off in buyers wanting to get on interest list. A release of 4 new homes this past weekend may be the first one in quite some time that is not fully sold out from buyers on our waiting list.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Charlotte builder: \u201cStill not meeting [sales] goal and seeing less traffic, with people taking longer to make decisions. Some close-out communities are not getting traffic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Columbus builder: \u201cMay traffic down 25% from April and don\u2019t expect June to compare well to May.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dallas builder: \u201cLower priced, outlying communities have slowed. Interest lists are nearly half of what they were.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denver builder: \u201cHigher rates are definitely bringing a chill to the market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greenville builder: \u201cLowest traffic in many months.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Harrisburg builder: \u201cMarket is soft, inventory is building. Missed May projected sales by 50%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston builder: \u201cHome prices hit a ceiling and incentives are starting to show up.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jacksonville builder: \u201cReleased 4 inventory homes in a HOT community and only sold 1 (first time haven\u2019t sold them in under 48 hours in more than a year).&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>LosAngeles builder: \u201cSeeing more cancellations due to payment shock for those in backlog that didn&#8217;t lock rates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nashville builder: \u201cMost builders are cutting speculative housing starts by 15%.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Philadelphia builder: \u201cForced to reduce some pricing and become more competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Phoenix builder: \u201cAs interest rates rise and pricing continues to escalate, there\u2019s no way we can sustain the type of sales rates we are used to.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Portland builder: \u201cIncentives are back in the market.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RiversideSanBernardino builder: \u201cPricing in this market will correct by 5-10%. If this administration lets the housing market slide because of inflation, we\u2019ll probably take some more hits to pricing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SaltLakeCity builder: \u201cHad a rough May.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SanAntonio builder: \u201cBuilders are requiring higher earnest money deposits. Rates are impacting buyers due to debt-to-income ratios.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tampa builder: \u201cWebsite and phone traffic slowed dramatically in the past 45-60 days. Longer-term pause in buyer traffic would cause alarm for our 2023\/2024 business plans.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The housing boom is over. I&#8217;m not predicting a repeat of 2007-2008, but lower prices and the negative wealth effect that comes with it seem inevitable, if the market didn&#8217;t have enough to worry about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s talk housing. 30-year mortgage rates are now 5.2% (or thereabouts). This is a double off the low. Coupled with significantly higher prices, this has caused mortgage payments to shoot up. From Charlie Bilello\u2026 In Jan 2021, the 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.65% and average new home price in the US was $401,700. Today, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15362"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15362"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15362\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15365,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15362\/revisions\/15365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}