{"id":9282,"date":"2016-01-06T08:47:13","date_gmt":"2016-01-06T13:47:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/leavittbrothers.com\/blog\/?p=9282"},"modified":"2016-01-06T08:47:13","modified_gmt":"2016-01-06T13:47:13","slug":"before-the-open-jan-6-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/?p=9282","title":{"rendered":"Before the Open (Jan 6)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Good morning. Happy Wednesday.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> The Asian\/Pacific markets closed mostly down. China rallied better than 2%, and Indonesia did better than 1%. Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Taiwan fell more than 1%. Europe is currently pretty much down across-the-board. The Netherlands and Italy are down more than 2%; London, Germany, France, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Spain, Belgium and Portugal are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a huge gap down open for the cash market. <\/span><br \/>\n<!--more-->&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><strong>VIDEO: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/3QLy03CWLbg\"><strong>Leavitt Brothers Overview<\/strong><\/a> <\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The dollar is flat. Oil and copper are down. Gold is up, silver is flat. Bonds are up. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Today&#8217;s gap down will pretty much destroy the consolidation patterns the Dow, Nas and S&amp;P 500 have been forming. The Russell small caps and S&amp;P 400 have been in downtrends for several months, but the three former have enabled the bulls to cling to something. Not any more. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Oil is going to gap down and immediately test its low from a couple weeks ago. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> I started putting together a list of things I don&#8217;t like about the market. It&#8217;s too long to put into one report, so I&#8217;m going to break it up in little bit size pieces and post a little each day. My reasons, which I&#8217;ll get into include:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><\/p>\n<li>Lagging small caps &#8211; this has been the case since last June. The small caps don&#8217;t have to lead, but they do need to keep up. It&#8217;s not a good sign when money flow into larger, safe-havens.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Weak breadth &#8211; I&#8217;ve talked about this weekly for many months. The AD line, AD volume line, new highs, bullish percent charts, percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages. Absent improvement, the market&#8217;s upside will be limited.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Deflationary pressures &#8211; declining oil is nice for a while, but eventually it causes problems. Copper is very weak. So is gold, although I&#8217;m not sure gold matters. A little inflation is ideal. Lots of inflation is bad. Deflation is very bad too.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Falling junk bonds &#8211; a sign investors are losing confidence.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Higher rates &#8211; companies will have to refinance their debt at higher rates, and if it&#8217;s true that much of the market&#8217;s gains are due to M&amp;A activity and stock buybacks, higher rates will make future gains much harder to come by.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>High margin debt &#8211; this has been the case for a very long time, so it&#8217;s not a &#8220;tipping point&#8221; issue, but if the ball gets rolling, unwinding the leverage could get ugly.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Defensive leadership &#8211; last year&#8217;s leaders are starting to sputter while some defensive groups have perked up recently.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>High percentage of unprofitable IPOs &#8211; you&#8217;ve heard about unicorns, start-ups valued at $1 billion. Right now we have the highest percentage of unprofitable unicorns since 2007&#8230;reminiscences of the dot com bubble days.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>High percentage of stock ownership as a percentage of assets &#8211; despite the rebound in housing, the general public is heavily invested in the stock market, as a percentage of their assets. It&#8217;s not that people aren&#8217;t diversified, it&#8217;s that they&#8217;re much less diversified than historical norms.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Strong dollar &#8211; the dollar is in consolidation mode. If it breaks out and runs, the market will fall.<\/li>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<li>Bonds could break out &#8211; a breakout of TLT, signalling a preference for bonds over stocks, would be another tough hurdle for the market to overcome.<\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> From a trading standpoint, weak breadth is what bothers me most. The market can&#8217;t move up much when a small percentage of stocks participate. Absent improvement, the market will move sideways and down. More after the open. <\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><strong>Stock headlines<\/strong> from barchart.com&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Apple (AAPL -2.51%) fell nearly 3% in pe-market trading after the Nikkei Asian Review reported that Apple would reduce Q1 output of its latest iPhones by about 30%.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Freeport-McMoRan (FCX +2.44%) tumbled over 4% in pre-market trading after Moody&#8217;s Investors Service placed the company&#8217;s debt under review for possible downgrade.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Oracle (ORCL -0.31%) was upgraded to &#8216;Buy&#8217; from &#8216;Hold&#8217; at Evercore ISI.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Landec Corp. (LNDC -0.34%) reported Q2 EPS of 7 cents, higher than consensus of 6 cents, although Q2 revenue of $140.4 million was below consensus of $143.2 million.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD +0.66%) fell over 2% in after-hours trading after it announced an offering of $10.5 million of common stock.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Gilead (GILD +1.28%) said it terminated a Phase 2 study of its Simtuzumab in patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis saying the study showed no evidence of a treatment benefit.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Sonic Corp. (SONC -0.10%) climbed over 1% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 24 cents, better than consensus of 23 cents.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> NuVasive (NUVA +2.28%) said it will acquire Ellipse Technologies MGEC in a transaction valued at $410 million.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Acadia (ACAD -0.46%) slid 4% in after-hours trading after it proposed a $300 million secondary offering of stock.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI -1.27%) rose 1% in after-hours trading after the company said it added 2.3 million new subscriptions in 2015, more than expectations of 2.0 million.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Epizyme (EPZM -1.05%) slumped 10% in after-hours trading after it proposed an offering of $120 million in stock.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT -2.05%) surged over 15% in after-hours trading after it said its Emricasan drug in a Phase 2 liver cirrhosis study showed significant reductions in liver biomarkers versus a placebo after 3 months of treatment.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><strong>Earnings and Economic Numbers<\/strong> from seekingalpha.com&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Today&#8217;s Economic Calendar<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 8:15 ADP Jobs Report<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 8:30 Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 8:30 International Trade<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 9:45 PMI Services Index<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 10:00 Factory Orders<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories<br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> 2:00 PM FOMC minutes<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Today&#8217;s Earnings <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/earnings_center\/upcoming\">here<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><strong>Other<\/strong>&#8230;<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\">today&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.briefing.com\/investor\/calendars\/upgrades-downgrades\/\">upgrades\/downgrades<\/a> from briefing.com<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\">this week&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.briefing.com\/investor\/calendars\/earnings\/2016\/01\/04-8\/\">Earnings<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: medium;\">this week&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/briefing.com\/investor\/calendars\/economic\/2016\/01\/04-08\">Economic Numbers<\/a><\/span><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n    var gaJsHost = ((\"https:\" == document.location.protocol) ? \"https:\/\/ssl.\" : \"http:\/\/www.\"); document.write(unescape(\"%3Cscript src='\" + gaJsHost + \"google-analytics.com\/ga.js' type='text\/javascript'%3E%3C\/script%3E\"));\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\n    var pageTracker = _gat._getTracker(\"UA-6273151-1\"); pageTracker._initData(); pageTracker._trackPageview();\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good morning. Happy Wednesday. The Asian\/Pacific markets closed mostly down. China rallied better than 2%, and Indonesia did better than 1%. Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and Taiwan fell more than 1%. Europe is currently pretty much down across-the-board. The Netherlands and Italy are down more than 2%; London, Germany, France, Norway, Switzerland, Denmark, Spain, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9282"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.leavittbrothers.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}