Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. Japan did well, but China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Thailand posted losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently quiet and void of many big movers. Denmark, Spain, Italy, and Austria are up. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Earnings are Wrecking Havoc on the Charts —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Guidance needed
A new executive order has been signed that would make it easier for 401K account holders to invest in private equity, cryptocurrency, and other alternative assets. Most current defined contribution plans are concentrated in stocks and bonds, but the latest directive could ease corporate plan administrators’ concerns about offering illiquid and complex financial products to plan participants.
Going mainstream: There has already been a shift to expand types of products that were typically not available in the past or were not popular among investors. BlackRock (BLK) recently unveiled plans to include private equity and credit in its retirement funds, which was followed by a similar announcement by Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and Voya Financial (VOYA). Related programs have also been outlined by Great-West Lifeco’s (GWO:CA) Empower unit, as well as Target Retirement IndexPlus by State Street (STT) and the launch of two interval funds by Capital Group and KKR (KKR).
Asset managers are likely to see the developments as a source of growth, as many institutional investors, such as U.S. pension funds, have reached their internally set limits of how much they’ll put into private equity. The new executive order will re-evaluate guidance regarding alternative asset investments in retirement plans that are subject to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974. It will also clarify the government’s stance on the fiduciary responsibilities and seek coordination across executive departments and the SEC.
Excerpt: “Burdensome lawsuits that seek to challenge reasonable decisions by loyal, regulated fiduciaries, and stifling Department of Labor guidance issued since my first term, however, have denied millions of Americans opportunities to benefit from investment in alternative assets,” President Trump detailed in the order. “Such assets are an increasingly large portion of the portfolios of public pension and defined-benefit retirement plans and offer competitive returns along with diversification opportunities.”
What else is happening…
A new era: Paramount (PSKY) to be tech-forward and efficient.
Trade Desk (TTD) gets battered after lackluster results, CFO exit.
Intel (INTC) CEO reaffirms commitment after Trump calls for ouster.
Chevron (CVX)-chartered tankers begin returning to Venezuela.
Senators to probe UnitedHealth’s (UNH) nursing home practices.
Trump nominates adviser Miran for 4-month Fed governor term.
OpenAI launches GPT-5 model – its smartest AI system yet.
American diplomats directed to lobby against EU digital law.
Union Pacific (UNP) to launch train service from LA to Chicago.
Oil adds to losses on report of planned Trump-Putin meeting.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore did well. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently posting big gains. Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Findland, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are up big; the UK is down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
New trade regime
“RECIPROCAL TARIFFS TAKE EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!,” President Trump touted on Truth Social before the Aug. 7 cutoff went into effect. “BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, LARGELY FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE UNITED STATES FOR MANY YEARS, LAUGHING ALL THE WAY, WILL START FLOWING INTO THE USA. THE ONLY THING THAT CAN STOP AMERICA’S GREATNESS WOULD BE A RADICAL LEFT COURT THAT WANTS TO SEE OUR COUNTRY FAIL!”
Everything from countries and industries to corporations has been caught in the crossfire since Trump came into office in January, vowing to upend the global trading system by way of tariffs and the reduction of trade deficits. His three-fold goal: reshore American manufacturing, protect U.S. industries, and reclaim a key source of government revenue. However, the speed at which he is willing to pursue this triad has sent many scrambling, and their responses might be best understood through a popular framework first described by American physiologist Walter Cannon more than a century ago.
Fight: As the U.S. ratcheted up tariffs on China, the latter responded in kind until things spiraled out of control. The U.S. rate eventually reached 145%, while China raised its levies to 125%, effectively halting trade between the world’s two largest economies. Beijing then pulled out its rare earth wild card, prompting Trump to negotiate an end to the battle, but also kicking off a warp-speed mineral project to close the U.S. vulnerability.
Flight: Some of the BRICS nations, like Brazil and India, are looking at alternative markets. The two countries now face steep U.S. tariff rates of 50%, prompting them to look for new export opportunities in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. “What bargaining power does a small Latin American country have against the United States? None,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced he “will never compromise on the interests of farmers, livestock owners and fishermen.”
Freeze: It took a while for the European Union to formulate its strategy on how to respond to Trump. The bloc initially held out, hoping for better trade terms, and was hesitant to fight back due to the possibility of things backfiring. While it did prepare a series of countermeasures, they were never implemented as it sought a diplomatic solution and an off-ramp to the conflict. A deal was ultimately agreed to, with EU President Ursula von der Leyen noting that a “15% [tariff rate] is not to be underestimated, but it is the best we could get.” Switzerland was also caught off guard and rushed to the U.S. after an initial freeze.
Fawn: While many countries have sought to appease Trump and offer concessions, the latest entities engaged in this response have been corporations. Shares of Apple (AAPL) advanced 5% on Wednesday, and another 3% in premarket trade, after announcing a $100B investment in the U.S. at a White House event (bringing its total to $600B over the next four years). “We’re going to be putting a very large [approximately 100%] tariff on chips and semiconductors,” Trump told reporters, “but the good news for companies like Apple is, if you’re building in the United States, or have committed to build without question in the United States, there will be no charge.”
What else is happening…
Restaurant check: Latest comp sales from McDonald’s (MCD).
M&M maker turns to CRISPR tech to improve cocoa supply.
United Airlines (UAL) resumes operations after technical glitch.
Fed’s Cook raises concerns over big revisions to jobs data.
GM, Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF) to develop vehicles together.
Amazon-backed (AMZN) Zoox gets some robotaxi exemptions.
Profit beat, but streaming fails to impress at Disney (DIS).
NYT sees Amazon AI deal boosting affiliate licensing revenue.
Trump hints at more tariffs over Russian oil purchases.
Apple taps Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) chip supply in Texas.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, China, Australia, and Thailand did well; India and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside but are mostly quiet. Poland, Turkey, Spain, and the Czech Republic are up; Denmark and Switzerland are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is flat.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Atomic reaction
A modern-day space race is taking shape as the U.S. tries to upend plans by Russia and China to establish the first base on the Moon. The difference this time is that the race is going nuclear. In order to have a permanent presence, America is looking at the best way to get power up there by 2030, five years ahead of rival nations, and has settled on a nuclear fission microreactor that would have an output of 100 kW.
Snapshot: Other power sources like solar are not a good option, as the Moon is dark for two weeks straight each month, with extreme temperatures that can challenge arrays and equipment. “There’s a certain part of the moon that everyone knows is the best; we have ice and sunlight there, and we want to get there first and claim that for America,” NASA’s Acting Administrator Sean Duffy declared. It’s all part of the agency’s Artemis program, which is aimed at sustaining life on the Moon to enable space exploration to expand to Mars.
Artemis II will launch in the first half of 2026, which will take four astronauts on a mission around the Moon before returning to Earth. In 2027, Artemis III hopes to pull off the first crewed Moon landing since 1972. If those are both successful, the U.S. will then begin shipping assets to the Moon’s South Pole region via unmanned missions, which would later be assembled by astronauts to establish the first human lunar base.
Stock watch: The NASA program, called Fission Surface Power, is helping energize some nuclear names back on Earth. BWX Technologies (BWXT) soared nearly 18% on Tuesday to hit fresh record highs, and earnings momentum is also helping extend the gains in the premarket session. Following closely behind are Oklo (OKLO) and Nuscale Power (SMR), which were called out by SA Sentiment last month as top nuclear energy stock picks. Some of the technology being developed for Artemis could bring about more recognition for the sector and help with commercialized deployment to satisfy growing power needs.
What else is happening…
Latest earnings: AMD dips as data center growth slows.
OpenAI exploring secondary stock sale at $500B valuation.
Trump threatens up to 250% tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
Nvidia (NVDA) says its AI chips don’t have kill switches.
Bessent removes himself from the running for Fed Chair.
Super Micro (SMCI) sinks as results and outlook fall short.
SEC clarifies stance on crypto liquidity staking activities.
Seven & i CEO: 7-Eleven IPO to fund aggressive growth.
Disney’s (DIS) ESPN to acquire NFL media assets.
Swiss president rushes to U.S. to negotiate lower tariffs.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did great. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand posted solid gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. Germany, the UAE, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia are leading. Israel is weak. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
To the moon!
Is the AI revolution slowing down? Not anytime soon, according to the latest quarterly numbers from Palantir (PLTR). The software analytics company has been identified by Seeking Alpha subscribers multiple times over the past year, with recommendations for outsized returns and even as the best AI stock to watch in 2025. Those who invested at those junctures would be up 345% and 140%, respectively, so stay tuned for future SA Sentiment-based picks and outlooks in Wall Street Breakfast.
Coming in hot: Palantir just logged its first quarter with revenue that topped $1B, sending shares up another 5.2% to $169 in the premarket session on Tuesday. Astounding revenue growth of 93% Y/Y was seen in its U.S. commercial unit, and U.S. government revenue growth was also up 53% Y/Y. Adjusted operating income and free cash flow were equally impressive, while revenue guidance was hiked well above projections, with $4.14B-$4.15B expected for FY25.
“Maybe stop talking to all the haters. They’re suffering. Don’t tell them about how important the ride has been, how exciting it’s been, how much fun it is to write little e-mails to analysts that spend 20 years learning about software and have been wrong about every quarter,” Palantir (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp said on the conference call. “This is an America story. We’re growing faster than we’re even able to grow, like we’re going to have to be turning away people… I believe we will 10x U.S. commercial revenue in the next, in my view, five years.”
Ever heard of the “Rule of 40”? The financial equation is commonly used in the Software as a Service (SaaS) industry to size up the health and sustainability of a company. The formula is calculated by adding the combined revenue growth rate to profit margin, which should equal or be at least 40%. “If that number is somewhere in the 50, 60, 70 [range] that’s pretty baller,” added Karp. “Our Rule of 40 score was 94%, once again obliterating the metric… We continue to see the astonishing impact of AI leverage.” See the full transcript here
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Trust levels in U.S. government data.
Harley-Davidson (HOG) names Topgolf’s Starrs as new CEO.
Figma (FIG) slides 27% days after meteoric market debut.
U.S. said to fast-track plan for nuclear reactor on the moon.
San Francisco Fed’s Daly sees interest rate cut nearing.
White House drafts order targeting discriminatory debanking.
The California Post (NWS) (NWSA) is coming early next year.
Morgan Stanley’s Wilson: Not time for a bull market pause.
96M shares! Tesla (TSLA) approves restricted award for Elon Musk.
SA Asks: Which stocks could be impacted by higher India tariffs?
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines posted solid wins; Japan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. Denmark, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, and the Czech Republic are leading; Israel is down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Data credibility
You’re fired! President Trump has terminated the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, following sharp downward revisions to jobs numbers on Friday. The situation, which came alongside Governor Adriana Kugler’s resignation at the Fed, is making more waves in Washington following escalating threats toward Chair Jay Powell. It’s a pretty wild ride, to say the least, with Trump declaring that the jobs data was “rigged” to make him and the Republican party “look bad.” Dangerous precedent or banana republic?
Quote: “Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics did the same thing just before the Presidential Election, when she lifted the numbers for jobs to an all time high,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I then won the Election, anyway, and she readjusted the numbers downward, calling it a mistake, of almost one million jobs. A SCAM! She did it again, with another massive “correction,” and got FIRED! She had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years.” Hassett defends Trump’s firing of BLS chief
Outsized revisions to economic numbers are somewhat commonplace, though there has been no shortage of skepticism in terms of statistics published by the federal government. Things have grown increasingly political in recent years, while a drop-off in business participation and declining consumer respondents threaten to dampen the effectiveness of sample sizes. It’s a pretty big deal given that many business decisions are based on those numbers and form the foundation of the U.S. economy.
Remember the fraudulent jobless claims in 2023 that made government numbers “literally unbelievable”? How about Powell’s infamous “transitory” call from 2021 that pointed to temporary supply shocks, which were even touted as a sign of a rebounding economy? There’s also the 818K nonfarm payroll wipeout – mentioned by Trump – that happened last year. It’s not only that many reports have to be sourced from surveys and industry sources, but numerous figures are calculated based on past assumptions or derivatives of data. Agencies seek to adjust for imbalances by applying different weights to respondents, adjusting their components, or including third-party information, which some say makes things better reflect the general population and others say erodes trust in institutions.
A better system? The Bureau of Labor Statistics usually surveys 100K-150K businesses each month, but the department then extrapolates from those surveys to get an estimate of how many jobs were created in the entire economy. Later on, the quarterly re-estimation process looks at 60M business records, many of which were not available at the time of the initial monthly payroll releases. Initial estimates are generally in line with trends, but new records can include unemployment benefits, seasonal hiring for the holidays, and unavoidable lags, such as delayed payroll data. Technically, the BLS could publish the data once it has all the reports to avoid revisions; however, many participants need access to the earliest possible read on labor market developments, like policymakers and lawmakers, as well as business owners and investors. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Delta Air Lines (DAL) faces scrutiny over AI-powered pricing tool.
UBS: Kugler’s exit from Fed could accelerate Powell succession.
Boeing’s (BA) defense workers strike for the first time since 1996.
Zuckerberg targets post-iPhone era with AI-powered glasses.
Tesla (TSLA) to appeal verdict of partial liability in Autopilot crash.
Berkshire (BRK.B) takes $3.8B Kraft Heinz (KHC) impairment hit.
OPEC+ to complete supply revival with September output boost.
Amphenol (APH) eyes CommScope (COMM) unit for $10.5B.
Brazil set to export more coffee to China amid U.S. tensions.
SA Roundtable: What’s the best AI stock play right now?
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