Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly very weak. New Zealand and Indonesia did well, but Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan and Malaysia did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and little changed. Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands and Israel are up; the UAE, Russia, Greece, South Africa, Austria and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up slightly. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are unchanged.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The biggest shopping weekend of the year is here and 165.3M Americans are planning to shop or bargain hunt during the holiday, according to the National Retail Federation. Strong numbers could suggest a profitable shopping season ahead amid concerns over the health of the economy. From a market perspective, history suggests this is a very good time for retail stocks. Since 2007, the week before Black Friday to a week after, the sector usually gains 5%.
Holiday-shortened session
While it’s not a Thanksgiving hangover, Wall Street futures are pointing to declines of 0.2% ahead of a half-day trading session. Sentiment that propelled stocks to several rounds of record highs is under pressure from a human rights dispute in Hong Kong that could upend progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks. President Trump has signed into law Congressional legislation supporting the city’s anti-government protesters, prompting Beijing to say it would take “firm counter measures” and attempts to interfere were doomed to fail.
EU approves U.S. beef import increase
The European Parliament voted by 457-140, with 71 abstentions, in favor of a plan to permit U.S. farmers a larger share of an existing 45K ton quota from 2020. It came with a resolution that urges the removal of U.S. tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, and the withdrawal of a threat to raise tariffs on EU cars. “The message of this agreement is clear: we would like to de-escalate trade tensions with the U.S, but we want to see the same efforts of de-escalation on the other side of the Atlantic,” said Bernd Lange, head of parliament’s trade committee.
Signals ahead of OPEC+ meeting
Putting pressure on OPEC+ to avoid a major policy shift, Russian oil companies have proposed not to change their output quotas as part of the current global supply cut deal. Non-OPEC oil producers and OPEC nations are due to discuss the agreement on Dec. 5-6, after curbing output to support prices for the last three years. “We see limited scope for a new round of cuts, in light of uneven compliance and diminishing returns,” Fitch Solutions added in a note.
Ford won’t take on Tesla’s Cybertruck
“Sunny’s tweet was tongue in cheek… nothing more,” a Ford (NYSE:F) spokesman said, shooting down chances of a tug-of-war match between Ford’s F-150 and Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) new Cybertruck. Sunny Madra, Vice President of Ford X, prompted the challenge over Twitter this week, with Elon Musk responding, “Bring it on!” If the battle were to take place, odds put Tesla as 3-to-1 favorite, according to sports betting company BookMaker.eu.
DOJ ends wireless collusion investigation
The Justice Department spent two years looking into whether AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and a trade association known as GSMA colluded over eSIM, which lets people remotely switch wireless providers without having to insert a new SIM card into a device. At the heart of the probe was whether the nation’s largest wireless carriers, working with the standards body, used the technology to unfairly maintain their dominance. The DOJ dropped its investigation after the parties agreed to change how they determine standards for eSIM, while GSMA said the results had turned up no wrongdoing.
Aramco IPO updates
The retail portion of Saudi Aramco’s (ARMCO) IPO has been fully covered, with orders reaching 32.57B Saudi riyals ($8.7B) before the offering closed yesterday at midnight. The state-owned oil giant plans to sell 1.5% of the company, or about 3B shares, at an indicative price range of 30 riyals to 32 riyals. That would value the IPO at as much as 96B riyals ($25.6B) and give Aramco a market value of between $1.6T and $1.7T.
Plastic crackdown
Vancouver will outlaw the use of plastic straws and bags from April next year, making it the first major Canadian city to enact such a far-reaching ban. Earlier efforts saw Montreal issue a narrower plastic bag ban in 2018, while grocery chain Sobeys has said it will eliminate all plastic bags from its stores. Going nationwide… Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced plans in June to prohibit some single-use plastics such as straws, bags and cutlery by early 2021.
Climate change economics
Calling it a “mission critical priority,” Christine Lagarde is pushing for climate change to be part of the ECB’s purpose, in the first comprehensive review of the bank since 2003. Pushback? Some eurozone central bankers argue that climate action should be left to the EU’s national governments to handle through fiscal policy, not monetary policy. Earlier this month, the San Francisco Fed convened the U.S. central bank’s first-ever conference on the “Economics of Climate Change” and discussed the concept of a “green interest rate.”
What else is happening…
Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) kicks off recovery plan.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) ousts traders over concealed loss.
Tory poll lead gives sterling a boost.
Amazon Web Services (NASDAQ:AMZN) pours cash into custom silicon.
Apollo Global (NYSE:APO) raises Tech Data (NASDAQ:TECD) offer to $6B.
PG&E (NYSE:PCG) subject to California’s inverse condemnation.
Today’s Economic Calendar
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
NYSE close at 1:00 PM
SIFMA close 2:00 PM
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. India, New Zealand, Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines all did well. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside but are mostly unchanged. The UK, Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic are leading. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The Santa rally appears to be coming early this year as traders look set to push Wall Street further into record high territory today before taking off for Thanksgiving. The bullish trend has been underpinned by recent trade optimism, leading the DJIA on Tuesday to score its 100th record close under President Trump, while weak figures from China (see below) suggest the world’s second-largest economy may seek to hasten a “Phase One” deal. Due to the holiday-shortened week, a U.S. data feast will also be served during the session, including durable goods for October, a second reading of Q3 GDP and the Fed’s Beige Book.
Signs of a slowdown in China
Under pressure from slowing demand at home and the fallout from the Sino-U.S. trade war, profits at China’s industrial firms slid 9.9% Y/Y in October to 427.56B yuan ($60.7B). That marks the greatest slump since the January-February period and compares with a 5.3% decline in September. “The big drop suggests the real economy is still facing plenty of difficulties… likely prompting authorities to unveil more growth-boosting measures in a gradual and restrained way,” said Nie Wen, economist at Shanghai-based Hwabao Trust.
Thanksgiving retail on watch
Retailers are preparing for one of their biggest weekends of the year, with an estimated 165.3M Americans going shopping Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation. The majority of consumers are planning to make their purchases on Black Friday, though the day is becoming less and less crucial to retailers as sales stretch beyond Thanksgiving week and more shoppers opt to make their purchases online.
Repo operations escalate
Stepping up its actions to prevent another surge in repo rates, the New York Fed added $92.7B in temporary liquidity to the financial system on Tuesday. The previous day, the bank conducted the first operation of its third, longer-term repo loans, which – at 42 days – go beyond year-end. The Fed has been intervening in markets in the current fashion since mid-September and hopes to cut back on interventions at the start of 2020.
NYC bans all flavored e-cigarettes
As federal officials waver on a flavored e-cigarette ban, state and municipal officials are grappling with how to address the resurgence of youth nicotine addiction. The latest to take action is NYC, which becomes the largest city in the U.S. to outlaw all vaping flavors except tobacco. A nationwide public health matter is also spreading, with a mysterious vaping lung disease that has so far sickened more than 2,100 and killed 42 people.
Criminal opioid probe
Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into whether opioid companies violated the Controlled Substances Act in connection with shipping large quantities of the painkillers that contributed to a healthcare crisis. Companies that received subpoenas include Teva (NYSE:TEVA), Mallinckrodt (NYSE:MNK), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Amneal Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:AMRX), AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) and McKesson (NYSE:MCK). The probe is in the early stages, and additional firms could receive subpoenas in the coming months.
Chicago ride-hail congestion tax
Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) shares rose slightly on Tuesday despite the Chicago city council’s approval of a congestion surcharge on ride-hail trips. Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s plan, which increases charges on single-passenger trips and lowers the tax on shared rides, seeks to raise $40M for the fiscal year that begins Jan. 1. It’s another blow to the industry after California passed its “gig-worker rule” and Tfl stripped Uber of its license to operate in London.
Another hurdle for the 737 MAX
The FAA now intends to be sole issuer of airworthiness certificates for all new 737 MAXs (a role it previously shared with Boeing), meaning it will inspect and sign off on every jet individually before delivery to airlines. It’s another public pushback by the agency against company pressure to accelerate the plane’s reinstatement. While Boeing (NYSE:BA) has been angling to start some MAX deliveries by late December, FAA leaders have stressed they don’t have a timeline and won’t sacrifice safety to speed up the process.
What else is happening…
Disney+ (NYSE:DIS) is getting 1M new subs per day – NY Post.
Xerox (NYSE:XRX) goes hostile with HP (NYSE:HPQ) takeover bid.
ByteDance (BDNCE) moves to ringfence TikTok app.
Hong Kong-listed Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) shares advance for second day.
Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) poised to take IPO trophy from NYSE (NYSE:ICE).
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Cybertruck orders reach 250K.
Tuesday’s Key Earnings
Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) +9.9% giving strong guidance.
Box (NYSE:BOX) +2.2% AH following a beat-and-raise.
Dell (NYSE:DELL) -3.9% trimming its full-year sales forecast.
HP Inc. (HPQ) +1.8% AH on Commercial systems strength.
VMware (NYSE:VMW) +0.7% AH amid licensing strength.
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 GDP Q3
8:30 Corporate profits
10:00 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $32B, 7-Year Note Auction
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
3:00 PM Farm Prices
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were quiet. New Zealand and Australia closed up; Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines closed down. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are little changed. The Netherlands is up; Russia, South Africa, Hungary, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.
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The dollar is flat. Oil is up a little; copper is down a little. Gold and silver are flat. Bonds are up slightly.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Shares of Alibaba’s secondary listing in Hong Kong closed at HK$187.60, 6.6% higher than the issue price, marking this year’s largest share sale and a boost for the embattled Hong Kong market. Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) intends to use the funds to diversify and has raised at least $11.3B from the deal (that could reach as much as $12.9B if an over-allotment option is exercised). While the offering was larger than the roughly $8B raised by Uber (NYSE:UBER) in May, it’s still expected to be topped by Saudi Aramco’s (ARMCO) anticipated listing in Riyadh in December.
Data in the mix with stocks at records
Signs of trade progress on Monday helped propel U.S. indices to records as the DJIA tacked on 190 points and returned to the 28,000 level. Dow futures are now ahead by 0.6%, though S&P and Nasdaq futures have pulled back a bit, as leaders of the U.S.-China trade negotiations held another phone call on Tuesday morning. Investors today are also eyeing the U.S. data front, with new home sales expected to jump and consumer confidence figures on tap.
Powell sees ‘glass more than half full’
“Monetary policy is now well positioned to support a strong labor market and return inflation decisively to the Fed’s 2% target,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Monday evening at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. “At this point in the long expansion, I see the glass as much more than half full. With the right policies, we can fill it further, building on the gains so far and spreading the benefits more broadly to all Americans.”
Dwindling opposition to Sprint, T-Mobile merger
T-Mobile’s (NASDAQ:TMUS) efforts to close its deal with Sprint (NYSE:S) are gathering pace before a trial with opposing attorneys general on Dec. 9. Nevada is the next state to drop its opposition to the tie-up in exchange for early deployment of next generation wireless networks and the promise of several hundred jobs. On Monday, Texas attorney general Ken Paxton announced that his office additionally “reached a settlement with T-Mobile resolving the state’s antitrust claims against the proposed merger.” TMUS +1.3% premarket.
Global ticketing giant
eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) agreed to sell its StubHub business on Monday to Viagogo Entertainment, a significant competitor internationally – and particularly in the U.K. and Europe. Already among the largest players in the growing secondary market for sports, music and live-entertainment, the combined company expects to sell hundreds of thousands of tickets each day across more than 70 countries. The $4.05B deal is also a major cash windfall for eBay, which scooped up StubHub for $310M in 2007.
Investors size up Impossible Foods
Impossible Foods is in talks with investors about a new funding round that would more than double the $2B valuation the alternative protein company attained earlier this year. Sources additionally told Reuters that the fundraising could mean an initial public offering may be on tap as early as next year. Rival Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) still trades at 3X the level where the company’s IPO was priced in May and the strong rally has pushed most of the sell-side community to the sidelines.
Timeline for Fiat Chrysler, PSA deal
Giving an estimated date for their proposed tie-up, Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) and Peugeot-owner PSA (OTCPK:PEUGF) told their employees they would sign a binding merger agreement in the coming weeks. Nine working groups were further established to create the world’s fourth-largest carmaker. FCA Chairman John Elkann said last week he was not worried that a shock racketeering lawsuit from GM (NYSE:GM) would derail the merger, which aims to keep the companies ahead of the curve with connected, electrified, shared and autonomous mobility.
What else is happening…
Starboard Value takes stake in CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) – Dow Jones.
Calvin Klein owner (NYSE:PVH) warns on China tariffs.
AIG (NYSE:AIG) sells vast holdings of Fortitude Re for $1.8B.
Canada’s biggest rail strike enters the eighth day.
House Democrats ‘within range’ of USMCA trade deal.
Tuesday’s Key Earnings
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) -4.5% AH as revenue came up short.
Palo Alto Networks (NYSE:PANW) -8.5% AH on downside FY EPS outlook.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
11:30 Results of $18B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $41B, 5-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Fed’s Brainard: “Federal Reserve Framework Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication”
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, India and Thailand posted big gains; Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. The UK, Denmark, the UAE, Greece, Spain, Italy, Israel and Sweden are up are leading while Turkey is weak. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is flat. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Marking the biggest ever deal in the luxury sector, LVMH (OTCPK:LVMHF) is buying Tiffany & Company (NYSE:TIF) for $16.2B, adding an iconic American name to the European giant’s stable of brands. The $135-per share cash deal will boost LVMH’s smallest business, the jewelry and watch division that is already home to Bulgari and Tag Heuer. Separately, Novartis (NYSE:NVS) has agreed to pay $9.7B for cholesterol-drug maker The Medicines Co. (NASDAQ:MDCO) as it continues to build up its heart treatment portfolio. The collection already includes Entresto, a $1B seller for heart failure, as well as an experimental RNA-targeting molecule from Ionis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IONS). TIF +5.8%; MDCO +22.6% premarket.
More M&A news
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) said it will scoop up TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD) in a $26B all-stock deal, which is expected to close in the second half of 2020. The transaction will create “a Goliath in Wealth Management,” Wells Fargo senior analyst Mike Mayo said on Thursday, when talks of the merger were first reported by CNBC. Consolidation in the industry was expected given that all the major brokers dropped trading commissions in recent months, leaving brokerages scrambling to find ways to maintain profits. AMTD +2.4%; SCHW -0.4% premarket.
Futures brighter as China acts on IP
The latest trade headlines are giving U.S. stock index futures a boost to start the week, with the DJIA pointing to a gain of 72 points at the open. China announced it will raise penalties on violations of intellectual property rights and is exploring lower thresholds of criminal punishments for those who steal IP. Assuaging recent concerns, U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien also said on Saturday that an initial trade deal with China was still possible by the end of the year.
Uber stripped of London license
Shares of the ride-hailing giant declined 6.4% in premarket trade after the company lost its license to operate in London for the second time in two years. While its services won’t immediately be blocked, it is a major blow to Uber (NYSE:UBER), which must now appeal the decision and prove its safety record. Uber was previously blocked from the city in September 2017, leading to a protracted legal battle with Transport for London that won it a reprieve.
Cybertruck orders trigger Tesla rebound
In a tweet late Sunday, Elon Musk indicated that Cybertruck orders have reached 200K, marking a milestone for the vehicle only three days after its launch. The news sent Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares up 3.4% premarket, after closing 6.1% lower on Friday as Wall Street analysts assessed the electric pickup truck, and questioned its futuristic design and price point. Musk added that “Cybertruck is our last product unveil for a while, but there will be some (mostly) unexpected technology announcements next year.”
Disney strikes gold with ‘Frozen II’
The movie hauled in $127M domestically and $223M worldwide, resulting in the highest-grossing debut ever for any animated film globally. More records? The motion picture marked a new high in the U.S. and Canada for an animated release outside the summer season and was the largest opening ever for Walt Disney Animation Studios. It’s also likely to be Disney’s (NYSE:DIS) sixth film to net more than $1B at the box office in 2019. DIS +0.8% premarket.
Bitcoin crash
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) euphoria is wearing off fast as the currency plunged another 10% overnight to below $6,600 on concerns about a crackdown on crypto operations by China. That puts it on track for eight straight days of declines, tying a record losing streak from 2014. While bitcoin soared to $10K last month on comments from President Xi, who said Beijing should speed up research into blockchain, the PBOC is now warning investors not to conflate the technology with cryptocurrencies.
JEDI sees Amazon brandish lightsaber
After saying it would protest the award, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has formally filed a lawsuit challenging the Pentagon’s choice of rival Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for a $10B cloud-computing contract called JEDI (Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure). The complaint is sealed, but the company said earlier this month there was “unmistakable bias” on the government’s part. Amazon isn’t alone. Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is also appealing a July ruling from the U.S. Court of Federal Claims that dismissed its legal challenge to the cloud contract.
Landslide victory in Hong Kong
The Hang Seng index rose 1.6% overnight as pro-democracy forces won 86% of the seats on Hong Kong’s local district councils. The pro-government camp only won about 12% of seats versus 65% four years ago, putting pressure on authorities to meet the demands of the city’s protestors. While district councilors typically handle local matters and lack legislative power, they hold close to 10% of the seats on the 1,200-member election committee that chooses the chief executive.
Johnson promises a Merry Brexmas
Comfortably ahead of the opposition Labour Party in the polls, Boris Johnson has laid out the Tory manifesto ahead of the Dec. 12 election. He’s pledging to bring back his Brexit deal to parliament before Christmas and ruled out any further delays, saying, “we will not extend the implementation period beyond December 2020.” Johnson also promised no new taxes in contrast with Jeremy Corbyn, who has proposed the measures to fund a major expansion of the U.K. Sterling +0.4% to $1.2881.
What else is happening…
Icahn seeks control of Occidental’s (NYSE:OXY) board.
Unilever (NYSE:UN) shoots down tea sale report.
U.S. issues another Huawei warning to Canada.
Boeing (NYSE:BA) debuts largest version of embattled 737 MAX.
HP (NYSE:HPQ) dismisses Xerox’s (NYSE:XRX) ‘hostile approach.’
Maurice Lévy prepares for new role at WeWork (WE).
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
1:00 PM Results of $40B, 2-Year Note Auction
7:00 PM Jerome Powell Speech