Before the Open (Dec 30 – Jan 3)

Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines posted gains; Hong Kong, India and Singapore closed down. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Russia is up, but Denmark, Poland, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A shot of Chinese stimulus triggered global stock markets to leap at the start of 2020, but the New Year’s party has come to an end. A 400-point opening decline is in store for the DJIA after the U.S. took out one of the most senior and revered generals in Iran, Qassem Soleimani (top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes was also killed). Oil is moving in the opposite direction amid supply disruption fears, with crude futures ahead by 4% to $63.61/bbl, while safe haven gold is up 1.5% to $1551/oz to its highest level in almost four months. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed that “severe retaliation” awaits Soleimani’s killers, while the U.S. embassy in Baghdad urged all citizens to depart Iraq immediately.
Oil at $80?
Crude prices “will likely hold” around $70 a barrel, “but could make a run at $80 if the conflict spreads to the oil fields of southern Iraq or if Iranian harassment of commercial shipping intensifies,” analysts at Eurasia Group wrote in a research note. “We expect moderate to low-level clashes to last for at least a month… Iranian-backed militias will attack U.S. bases and some U.S. soldiers will be killed; the U.S. will retaliate with strikes inside of Iraq.” Iraq is the second largest producer in OPEC and exports about 3.4M barrels per day of crude mostly from southern Basra port.
Repos and rates in focus
This afternoon, the Fed will publish the minutes from its December meeting, when it held interest rates after three cuts earlier in the year. The release may shine some light on what central bankers are thinking about the repo market, where the Fed has been active over the last several months in an effort to control overnight interest rates. Investors will also look for hints on what it would take to shift the consensus view among officials that interest rates will remain on hold for all of 2020.
New all-time high for Apple
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is looking to continue its outsized gains after skyrocketing 86% in 2019 for its best year in a decade. Shares of the iPhone maker rose 2.3% on Thursday to close above $300 for the first time (on a split-adjusted basis), amid predictions for a robust holiday quarter, demand for wearables and planned services including streaming TV. The advance contrasts sharply with Apple’s dismal start last year after the company cut its sales forecast for the first time in almost two decades.
Illumina, Pacific Biosciences nix merger
vFacing persistent and potentially insurmountable headwinds from regulators, Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN) and Pacific Biosciences of California (NASDAQ:PACB) have mutually agreed to terminate their merger agreement announced on November 1, 2018. The FTC had said it would block the deal, alleging that Illumina was unlawfully seeking to maintain its monopoly in the U.S. market for next-generation DNA sequencing systems. Illumina will pay Pacific Bio a $98M termination fee under the terms of the contract. PACB +4.5% premarket.
E-cigarette restrictions
The FDA has officially banned the sale of flavors (except menthol and tobacco) in pod-based e-cigarettes, though the restriction won’t apply to open-tank vaping devices, which allow users to mix their own nicotine liquids. Companies that do not comply within 30 days risk enforcement action. The policy, intended to curb a surge in underage vaping, deals a severe blow to an industry estimated to have $9B in annual revenue and places more pressure on manufacturers already facing a May 12 deadline for federal review of their products.
Airline employees get in on MAX compensation
American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) plans to share with employees part of the compensation it receives from Boeing (NYSE:BA) for the nearly 10-month grounding of the 737 MAX, a disruption that carriers have said cost them more than $1B in revenue. Several other MAX customers, including Icelandair, Turkish Airlines and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), have recently reached compensation agreements with Boeing, but the final amounts aren’t yet clear because the grounding is ongoing. Boeing already took a $4.9B aftertax charge in Q2 to compensate airlines for the situation.
EV revolution
Fully electric cars made up 42.4% of sales in Norway last year, a global record, rising from a 31.2% market share in 2018 and just 5.5% in 2013, according to the Norwegian Road Federation. The Nordic nation currently exempts battery-powered vehicles from the taxes imposed on petrol and diesel engines as it seeks to become the first country to end the sale of fossil-fueled cars by 2025. The country’s best-selling car in 2019 was Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Model 3 sedan (with an 11% market share), though competition is expected to accelerate from rival automakers in 2020.
Brussels pushes for plastic waste tax
Efforts are again underway for an EU-wide tax on plastic waste. Officials and diplomats have told the FT that members are ready to agree to duties on non-recyclable plastic, though tough negotiations still lie ahead. The proceeds would go directly into the common budget, rather than the government that collected the tax, and may go a long way in plugging a €15B hole that will be left once the U.K. leaves the EU.
Goldman U-turns on U.S. economic forecast
It was only months ago that most on Wall Street worried that a recession was around the corner, but those fears are fading fast. “Overall, the changes underlying the Great Moderation appear intact, and we see the economy as structurally less recession-prone today,” Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle wrote. “While new risks could emerge, none of the main sources of recent recessions – oil shocks, inflationary overheating, and financial imbalances – seem too concerning for now. As a result, the prospects for a soft landing look better than widely thought.”
What else is happening…
Judge likely to block T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS)/Sprint (NYSE:S) – Cowen.
Exxon (NYSE:XOM) wins reprieve from U.S. Treasury sanctions fine.
Big cleanup… Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) details closure of coal ash basins.
McClatchy (NYSEMKT:MNI) -7% after freezing some retirement payments.
Avon Products (NYSE:AVP) CEO Zijderveld steps down.
China not likely to change inflation target in 2020.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Auto Sales
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:05 Fed’s Barkin: ”Is a Recession Around the Corner?”
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:15 PM Fed’s Evans: “Women in Central Banking”
1:15 PM Fed’s Brainard: “Women in Central Banking”
2:00 PM FOMC minutes
3:30 PM Fed’s Kaplan: “Navigating the Crosscurrents: the Outlook for the Global Economy”
1:15 PM Fed’s Williams Speech on Sunday
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up with big gains. China, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand were up; South Korea and the Philippines were down. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently posting big gains. The UK, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Turkey, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Austria and Sweden are up. Futures in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is flat; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
With the first trading session of the year on deck, investors are sketching their market predictions for 2020. Will the decade-long bull run continue? What’s next in the Fed’s rate cycle? Will the labor market remain strong? An earnings lift? How about upcoming phases of the U.S.-China trade deal? Robotics, wearable AR, space tourism? Will shale producers tap the brakes? How will the 2020 presidential election affect the market? Any other stock-related tea leaves?
Traders return to work
Equities are starting the new year on the right foot, with Dow futures pointing to a 150-point advance at the open following a market boom in 2019. The festivities kicked off in Asia overnight, where the PBOC slashed its required cash reserve ratio for commercial lenders by 50 basis points, unleashing about 800B yuan ($115B) of liquidity into the financial system. The move to shore up the local economy saw the Shanghai Composite Index end the session up 1.2%, adding to the overall positive sentiment ahead of the signing of a ‘Phase One’ U.S.-China trade deal on Jan. 15.
Airbus seizes planemaker crown from Boeing
Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) has become the world’s largest planemaker for the first time since 2011 after delivering a forecast-beating 863 aircraft in 2019, according to airport and tracking sources. The race was overshadowed by Boeing’s (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX crisis and underscores the distance the U.S. company must travel to recoup its market position in 2020. Boeing delivered 345 jets between January and November, less than half the number of 704 achieved in the same period of 2018, when the MAX was being delivered.
Recreational marijuana legal in Illinois
Illinois is ringing in the new decade by becoming the 11th state in the country, as well as the District of Columbia, to allow the legal sale and purchase of marijuana. Under the new state law, adults over the age of 21 may own 30 grams of cannabis flower, 500 milligrams of THC in pot products and 5 grams of cannabis concentrate. Consulting firm Freedman and Koski expects the weed industry to bring the state $440M-676M in annual tax revenue.
Vaping crackdown
The FDA plans to ban the sale of flavors (except menthol and tobacco) in pod-based e-cigarettes, though the restriction won’t apply to open-tank vaping devices, which allow users to mix their own nicotine liquids, WSJ reports. The policy, intended to curb a surge in underage vaping, will likely be announced tomorrow and deal a blow to an industry estimated to have $9B in annual revenue. A deadly vaping lung illness has now taken the lives of 55 people across 27 states, according to the latest data from the CDC.
Healthcare breakthrough for artificial intelligence
In a study published Jan. 1 in Nature, researchers showed that Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) DeepMind AI unit could match or outperform radiologists at detecting breast cancer, though doctors still beat the machines in some cases. The model reduced false positive rates by 5.7% in the U.S. and by 1.2% in the U.K., while also lowering false negatives by 9.4% in the U.S. and by 2.7% in the U.K. While the algorithm isn’t yet ready for clinical use, it marks the latest step in Google’s push into healthcare.
Soaring prescription drug prices
The drug price hike of 2020 has commenced, with costs rising for more than 250 medications, according to data analyzed by 3 Axis Advisors. Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) hiked U.S. list prices on more than 50 drugs on New Year’s Day, adding to the couple hundred increases from drugmakers including Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) and Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY). While nearly all of the price increases are below 10% and the median price increase is around 5%, more early year price increases could still be announced.
HSBC tangled in Hong Kong protests
Two HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) branches and seven indoor ATM clusters were closed today, the first working day of the year, after protesters attacked some of the bank’s offices and graffiti was sprayed on the famous pair of lions that guard its city-center headquarters. Some demonstrators accuse the lender of being complicit against activists that are trying to raise money to support their campaign. Upcoming financial hit? More than 90% of the $4.4B generated by HSBC’s retail banking and wealth management unit in the six months to last June came from the territory.
High rollers stay away from Macau
Gambling revenue in the Chinese territory of Macau tumbled 13.7% in December from a year earlier, marking the steepest decline in close to four years. Overall revenues in 2019 fell 3.4%, following two years of gains, due to the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war and protests in neighboring Hong Kong. The decline may come to an end in 2020 as President Xi Jinping looks to diversify the city into a financial center and boost its economy.
TikTok banned from U.S. Army devices
Following the lead of the Navy and guidance from the Pentagon, the U.S. Army has banned ByteDance’s (BDNCE) social media app TikTok from all government-owned phones. “It is considered a cyber threat,” said Lt. Col. Robin Ochoa, a spokeswoman for the Army. The military had been using TikTok as a recruitment tool and as a way to reach young people, but it began dissuading personnel from using the app in mid-December.
What else is happening…
List of U.S. stock leaders and laggards from 2019.
Buffett’s worst year in decade marked by cash hoard.
vProminent Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) user, Josh Brown, dumps the stock.
‘Friends’ bids farewell to Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).
First customers to receive China-made Model 3s (NASDAQ:TSLA).
Carlos Ghosn will hold press conference on Jan. 8.
Politics prompt China to suspend British stock link.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
Several markets in Asia/Pacific were closed today. China did well; India, Taiwan and Malaysia were weak. Many markets in Europe, Africa and the Middle East were also closed. Saudi Arabia is up; the UK, South Africa and Spain are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
It was another exciting year for investors in 2019 amid a stock market rally that saw the S&P 500 surge 28%, for the biggest gain since 2013. Easing trade tensions with China, a shift in monetary policy at the Fed, and improving economic outlook all renewed investors’ faith, while safer assets like gold and bonds also soared. Other notable highlights: Tech domination, M&A activity, streaming wars, vaping crackdown, American energy independence, hot IPO market, the EV revolution, 737 MAX crisis, record holiday shopping and getting Brexit over the line.
Final trading day of 2019
U.S. stock futures turned green overnight before the final trading session of the year after Wall Street slipped from record highs on Monday as investors booked profits. While there’s little to drive the market with trading desks lightly staffed, the South China Morning Post reported on some trade news. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will head to Washington in the next few days to complete the highly anticipated Phase One trade deal, though the actual signing ceremony may take place next week.
California sued over gig worker law
The battle over the gig economy is escalating in California, where a recently passed bill that reclassifies contractors as employees goes into effect on Jan. 1. Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Postmates have filed suit against the state, alleging that the legislation violates constitutional guarantees of equal protection and due process because of how it targets some workers and companies. An injunction is now being sought against the new law, known as Assembly Bill 5, which will transform the operations of on-demand services.
Ghosn turns celebrity fugitive
How did he do it? Ousted Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) and Renault (OTCPK:RNLSY) boss Carlos Ghosn has fled to Lebanon, saying he wouldn’t be “held hostage by a rigged Japanese justice system where guilt is presumed.” It’s the latest dramatic twist in a year-old saga that has shaken the global auto industry and jeopardized the Nissan-Renault alliance. Ghosn is accused of misconduct ranging from understating his salary to misdirecting Nissan funds.
Tesla Shanghai
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has delivered its first batch of made-in-China Model 3s to 15 of its Chinese employees. The Shanghai plant now produces 28 or more Model 3s every hour and works about 10 hours each day, meaning that it produces more than 1,000 cars each week (output of 3,000/week is expected “in the near future”). About 30% of the Model 3 parts are currently sourced in China and the car will be totally localized by the end of next year.
MAX compensation
The 737 MAX crisis is costing Boeing (NYSE:BA) another pretty penny as the planemaker reached a compensation agreement with Turkish Airlines. The statement to the Istanbul stock exchange did not specify the deal’s value, but Hurriyet newspaper said it was worth $225M: $150M in compensation and $75M covering things such as spare parts and training. Following two fatal crashes, the 737 MAX has been grounded since March, costing Boeing more than $9B so far.
McDermott in bankruptcy talks
McDermott (NYSE:MDR) closed down 50% on Monday to $0.75/share in reaction to a WSJ report that the engineering firm is in talks with its lenders to file for bankruptcy within weeks. The group may provide an approximately $2B loan to keep the company’s operations running during bankruptcy, while the financing would afford McDermott the ability to provide letters of credit, most of which expire within a year and need to be renewed for the firm to continue its work on projects.
Leviathan goes online
Following numerous regulatory delays and court petitions, Israel’s offshore Leviathan natural gas field, controlled by Noble Energy (NYSE:NBL), Delek Drilling (OTCPK:DGRLY) and Ratio Oil, has finally begun production. “Israel is now an energy powerhouse, able to supply all its energy needs and gaining energy independence,” said Delek Drilling CEO Yossi Abu. The project’s partners have also signed multi-billion-dollar export deals with Egypt and Jordan. The gas will start flowing in the coming weeks.
Huawei brushes off U.S. sanctions
Despite a U.S. campaign to curtail its global business, Huawei’s revenue grew roughly 18% in 2019 to more than 850B yuan, or about $122B. In the past year, American authorities have handed down a pair of criminal indictments of the company, added Huawei to the Commerce Department’s trade blacklist, and placed new restrictions on its ability to sell to small U.S. carriers. The Trump administration also pressured allies to exclude the Chinese telecom equipment supplier from 5G network rollouts.
U.S. population growth slowest in century
The U.S. grew from 2018 to 2019 by almost a half percent, or about 1.5M people, with the population standing at 328.2M, according to U.S. Census Bureau. That ranks as the slowest in 100 years as the number of births declined, the number of deaths increased, and international migration slowed. The trends are important to watch on a macro basis because population growth and productivity improvements are key to economic growth.
What else is happening…
Chinese manufacturing activity expands for second straight month.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) hits F-35 delivery target for 2019.
Ford (NYSE:F) reports strong demand for Mustang Mach-E.
FedEx (NYSE:FDX), UPS (NYSE:UPS) add new fees for bulky items.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) original content is watched more than other titles.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) takes down domains of N.Korean hackers.
Today’s Economic Calendar
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. China and Hong Kong closed up; Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and India lost ground. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently are little changed. Turkey is up; Germany, Greece, Switzerland, Austria and Switzerland are down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
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FREE Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Mini Masterclass in Trading
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The dollar is flat. Oil is up; copper is flat. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The NY Post reports that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is considering instituting a requirement that ride-share service providers use electric vehicles as part of the city’s mandate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutral status by 2050. The rule, if enacted, could be a major blow to Uber (NYSE:UBER) since LA is one of its top five markets. The company has already endured a setback in the state when lawmakers passed legislation classifying drivers as employees rather than independent contractors. Last month, it lost its license in London, a market representing ~4% of its business, over its failure to ensure passenger safety.
NBA TV ratings slip 15%
Sports fans are tuning out pro basketball in the U.S., down 15% this season thus far. Through week 8, average viewers on nationally televised games was 885K compared to ~1M a year ago and ~1.2M two years ago. One reason for the diminished enthusiasm is the rash of injuries to star players that have relegated them to the sidelines (Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Zion Williamson). The bigger issue, though, is the secular shift from cable TV bundles to internet-based alternatives. Lightshed Partners media and telecom analyst Rich Greenfield says, “There is no doubt that the talent in any season can push ratings up or down, but everyone is fighting a very, very difficult underlying trend, which is less people subscribing to TV. And of the people who are subscribing to TV, they’re watching less and less every day.”
Auto/truck makers scramble to meet stricter emission rules
Auto and light truck industry investors won’t have much to cheer about in the near/medium term as more stringent emissions standards take effect in Europe this week (phase-in period extends into 2021), a development long known, though. In order to meet the new rules, manufacturers will have to sell many more hybrid and electric vehicles there or pay costly fines, a situation similar to China, the world’s largest car market. The problem for investors is the lack of profitability since manufacturers are stuck between a rock and a hard place; environmentally friendly products will not sell if priced above gas-users but offer little or no margins if priced competitively. The issue will eventually ensnare heavy-duty trucks, albeit with a longer timeline, although new fuel-efficiency rules will be implemented in the U.S. in 2021. In Europe, big trucks will have to emit 30% less greenhouse gases by 2030.
Shale output deficit widening
A WSJ analysis shows that shale wells are not producing as much oil and gas as producers forecasted when they were raising capital. Earlier this year, the WSJ reported that recently drilled wells in the four largest U.S. oil regions are expected to produce 10% less oil and gas over their lifetimes as claimed by fracking companies. Now the gap is closer to 15% per a comparison of productivity forecasts from 29 of the largest shale producers between 2014 and 2017 to estimates from analytics shop Rystad Energy. The potential shortfall represents ~1.4B barrels over 30 years or more than $60B at current prices. Excluding new wells that began producing this year, output in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico would have declined by ~40% according to IHS Markit.
U.S. eyes customs deal with Mexico
Aimed at corralling the inflow of illicit drugs, arms and money into the U.S., the Trump administration is exploring a cooperative agreement with Mexico on customs. Ambassador Christopher Landau and U.S. Attorney General William Barr will travel south of the border next month to discuss a plan.
What else is happening…
JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Goldman (NYSE:GS) tweak repo ops.
Civil rights leader Lewis faces late-stage pancreatic cancer.
Nio (NYSE:NIO) pledges improved finances as sales ramp and costs cut.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 International Trade in Goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey