Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, China, South Korea, India and Australia led; the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed, with a lean to the upside. France, Germany, Greece, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Portugal, Sweden and the Czech Republic are up; Turkey, the UAE, Russia, South Africa and Austria are down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
————— Chart With Traders Podcast —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Storm’s a brewin’
A Manhattan grand jury has voted to indict former President Donald Trump on felony charges, launching the first criminal case against a former president. The precise charges are unknown and the felony indictment has been filed under seal, but Trump will now face surrender and arrest in the coming days. Trump’s lawyers have confirmed he’s been indicted, according to the Associated Press, referring to payments made during his 2016 campaign to silence claims of an extramarital sexual encounter.
Quote: “This is political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history,” Trump said in response to the indictment. “The American people realize exactly what the Radical Left Democrats are doing here. Everyone can see it. So our Movement, and our Party – united and strong – will first defeat Alvin Bragg, and then we will defeat Joe Biden, and we are going to throw every last one of these Crooked Democrats out of office so we can MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Digital World Acquisition (DWAC), the blank-check company taking Trump’s social media company public, rose 11% AH on Thursday following the news (conservative video network Rumble (RUM) is also up in premarket trade). The case will likely provide a boost for Trump’s media coverage, but is unlikely to have any legal bearing on his candidacy, even if he is convicted. The developments will also impact the messaging around the 2024 election season, which could cut different ways politically, and ultimately determine what administration will head to the White House and govern the U.S. economy.
Outlook: It appears that the case is being built on the falsification of business records, which has been made into a felony – due to an intersection with campaign finance law – like the payoff of porn star Stormy Daniels to protect the 2016 election campaign. It would be a novel approach to combine state charges with federal crimes, though a tax angle could change the legal theory behind the case, or possibly another hush money payment made to Playboy model Karen McDougal. The Manhattan case is just one that Trump is facing: There’s a federal probe of his actions around his 2020 presidential loss, and a Georgia investigation into his attempts to reverse the election result there. (583 comments)
Chip war
Economic fallout is being seen across many industries as China seeks to promote a new world order. Japan is now restricting exports of 23 types of equipment used to make semiconductors in a move that will likely impact companies like Nikon (OTCPK:NINOY) and Tokyo Electron (OTCPK:TOELY). The battle over silicon has erupted as the U.S. looks to isolate China from one of the most important technologies of the future, lobbying its allies abroad to take measures, as well as the passing of the CHIPS ACT on the domestic front and implementing serious export controls of its own. The Netherlands also previously agreed to an American request to impose export restrictions on China – limiting powerful chips and deep lithography tools of Dutch company ASML (ASML) – while Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen this week is visiting the U.S., where she’ll surely talk about TSMC (TSM) and other local fabs (that account for 92% of the world’s advanced chipmaking capacity). (23 comments)
NATO expansion
Finland is one step closer to becoming a NATO member after Turkey’s parliament approved a bill to expand the military alliance. It was the last vote the country needed to join the 30-nation group after Hungary’s legislature gave its approval earlier this week. “Soon both Finland and Sweden will be members, meaning that President Putin is getting the exact opposite of what he wanted,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared. “He wanted less NATO. He is getting more NATO.” Stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) have risen about 20% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but many other defense players haven’t held on to their gains. Wells Fargo explores how cuts in federal spending could hit defense stocks (37 comments)
Final Four
The bracket-busting nature of the NCAA college basketball tournament this year may be helping the house with its edge. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon and team calculated an above-average hold rate of 8% after a rash of upsets during the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games. That includes mid-major Florida Atlantic beating the Big 12’s Kansas State, a team that was a heavy betting favorite of the public and had created some risk for sportsbooks that do not always have perfectly balanced betting action. The push for profitability is the biggest theme in the sports betting sector for 2023 with investors focused on bottom lines and valuations. Check out related stocks and iGaming plays, with sports betting revenue in the U.S. forecast to top $10B this year. (4 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Farm Prices
3:05 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
What else is happening…
U.S. economy: Q4 GDP revised down again in final estimate.
Virgin Orbit (VORB) ceases operations and axes most of workforce.
Fed, Treasury fine Wells Fargo (WFC) over sanctions violations.
Scrambling for minerals, Ford (F) inks big nickel deal in Indonesia.
Tesla (TSLA) reportedly eyes American battery plant alongside CATL.
Nikola (NKLA) shares at nearly $1 after new stock offering.
Royal clause: DeSantis’ board says Disney (DIS) stripped them of power.
Apple (AAPL) buying Disney? Needham says ‘worth more together.’
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) slumps on latest bankruptcy hint.
More layoffs: Roku (ROKU) to cut around 6% of its workforce.
After Alibaba (BABA) breakup, JD.com (JD) files for Hong Kong IPOs.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly with gains. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand did well; Japan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently posting big gains. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic are leading. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— Leavitt Brothers Overview –>> here —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Bull riding
Another bull is awakening from its 2022 slumber as investors continue to pile back into tech stocks that have been shunned for much of the past year. It’s an interesting turn for the market, with worries over interest rates and a looming recession, but perhaps that is what is getting cash off the sidelines. Rates will soon peak – as telegraphed by the Fed’s dot plot – or easing may even ensue, while a lower growth environment can see a premium return to the old beloved tech names. Many are also nervous about missing out on the market ride-up, especially when weighing alternatives like high-yielding money market funds and inflation-linked bonds.
The latest: The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has surged into a new bull market for the first time in nearly three years, with the tech-heavy benchmark now up more than 20% from its closing low on Dec. 28. The latest leg was powered by earnings from Micron Technology (MU), which stressed confidence in industry fundamentals, as well as broader rallies for megacaps Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). Speaking of chips and tech, Nvidia (NVDA) has exploded with an advance of more than 80% so far this year, taking these ETFs higher.
“Some stocks, especially the severely oversold high-quality technology names I discussed in many articles around their lows last fall, probably made long-term bottoms but should continue providing buying opportunities on pullbacks and dips,” wrote Victor Dergunov, SA Investing Group author of The Financial Prophet. Check out the article, The ‘Fed Pivot’ Is Coming – The Bottom Is Close. His “All-Weather Portfolio” is up by 17% YTD, with its technology segment boosting returns, advancing about 25% since the beginning of the year.
Go deeper: With no fresh news about a banking contagion, market participants have appeared to have regained a risk-on mood. The tech bull market also hasn’t been limited to growth stocks, with recent gains over the past week in financials and energy. Meanwhile, bigger concerns for the housing sector haven’t materialized, with pending home sales rising for a third straight month in February and mortgage applications increasing over the past week. (5 comments)
AI development
Is it possible that there could be too much going on too quickly and too soon with artificial intelligence right now? That seems to be the opinion of Tesla (TSLA) and Twitter CEO Elon Musk, Apple (AAPL) co-founder and computer-industry legend Steve Wozniak, as well as a handful of other tech officials. They have penned an open letter to call for a six-month pause in the development of many AI tools in order to develop new safety standards for the technology. AI has become one of the hottest topics in the tech sector, with OpenAI claiming earlier this month that its GPT-4 could do better on the SAT exam than 90% of all test takers. (121 comments)
More transparency?
In hindsight, it’s clear that the overall regulatory system, supervisors and bank management all failed with respect to overseeing Silicon Valley Bank (OTC:SIVBQ), Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr said before the House Financial Services panel. In the summer of 2022, Barr noted that SVB had a composite rating of three (i.e., not well-managed), though its liquidity rating was a two, which is satisfactory. Now the Fed is “looking at whether those standards were sufficiently stringent, whether the firm should’ve been downgraded further and whether further supervisory steps should’ve been taken.” His opening statement was identical to that of Tuesday’s Senate hearing, where he blamed the downfall of SVB on the lender’s poor management of interest rate and liquidity risk and inadequate internal controls. (11 comments)
Hypersonic trouble
The Pentagon had hoped to declare the first combat-capable U.S. hypersonic weapon by mid-2022, but its test programs are running into trouble. Reports suggest that the Air Force isn’t going to pursue a follow-on procurement of Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon, also known as ARRW, after the transmission failure and loss of data in a recent exercise (this defense company might gain from the development). The objective of hypersonics, like boost-glide missiles and air-breathing missiles, is to evade defense systems while flying at speeds higher than Mach 5, while they can maneuver in-flight compared to the fixed sub-orbital trajectories of ballistic missiles. The U.S. has sought to rush their development after Russia claimed the use of its Kinzhal in Ukraine last year, which marked the first time hypersonic missiles were used in combat. (30 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate profits
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
12:45 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
What else is happening…
Shadows of Peltz controversy? Disney (DIS) fires Marvel chair.
More layoffs: Warner Music (WMG) and Electronic Arts (EA) are next.
World’s largest ESG ETF saw $5B exit in March, leading all ETFs.
Electric stuff: EV makers may jolt sector with deliveries report.
Bowing out of race, J&J (JNJ) drops RSV vaccine program.
UnitedHealthcare (UNH) to cut use of prior authorizations by 20%.
Apple (AAPL) sets date for its annual developer conference.
China threatens countermeasures if McCarthy meets Taiwan leader.
Did crypto exchange Binance just suffer $2B in outflows?
Best long-term stocks: Morgan Stanley picks 30 for 2025.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly with gains. Japan, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia and Indonesia led. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. The UK, France, Germany, Russia, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are leading; Israel is down. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Breaking up
“Come on, baby, let’s start anew,” Alibaba (BABA) sang in a new hit-single released on Tuesday, with most believing it won’t be hard to pull off for the company. Investors were certainly “down dooby doo down down” for the move, sending shares of the Chinese tech giant soaring 14% during the session. Chinese tech stocks rose in tandem, including JD.com (JD), NetEase (NTES) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), as well as Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBY), which was one of Alibaba’s key early investors.
The plan: Alibaba will split into six different units covering e-commerce, media and the cloud, with the goal of boosting each group’s individual business value. They include: 1) Cloud Intelligence, 2) Taobao Tmall Business, 3) Local Services, 4) Global Digital Business, 5) Cainiao Smart Logistics, and 6) Digital Media and Entertainment. “Under this plan, we will have six major business groups and other investments, each to be independently managed by its own chief executive officer and board of directors,” according to a regulatory filing. Aside from Taobao Tmall Business, which will remain fully owned by Alibaba (BABA), each of the other business groups “will also have the flexibility to raise outside capital and potentially to seek its own IPO.”
“With such an obvious and unexpected catalyst on our hands, it pays to explore what exactly this new development could do for BABA shareholders,” wrote SA contributor Growth at a Good Price. He explores how to play the restructuring, while other SA authors are also bullish on the announcement. See Alibaba Drops A Bombshell by Investing Group author Jonathan Weber, as well as Alibaba Group: A Great Move Aimed At Boosting Shareholder Value by Daniel Jones.
Go deeper: The reorganization follows years-long headwinds for Alibaba shares, including a slowing economy in China and geopolitical tensions, as well as a broad tech selloff and sweeping crackdown on Chinese internet companies. In fact, the announcement came a day after the company’s legendary founder, Jack Ma, made his first appearance in mainland China after several months overseas, and has generally been out of the public eye since he gave a speech in 2020 that criticized Beijing’s financial and business regulators. It also raises questions about what may happen with the suspended record IPO of Ant Group, which operates one of China’s biggest mobile pay apps called Alipay (Alibaba owns 33% of Ant). (108 comments)
iBank?
Apple (AAPL) has officially released its “Buy Now, Pay Later” service in the U.S., permitting purchase payments over time with no fees and no interest. Select users can apply for Apple Pay Later loans of $50 to $1,000, which can be managed in Apple Wallet and used for both online and in-app merchants that accept Apple Pay. The solution was initially planned to be released in September 2022 as part of iOS 16, before technical challenges delayed the launch, though Apple now hopes to offer it to all eligible users in the months ahead. Mastercard (MA) and Goldman Sachs (GS) will be helping out Apple with payment credentials, while rival BNPL provider Affirm (AFRM) tumbled on the latest news. Is a bank charter for Apple in the cards? (49 comments)
Going after the apes
AMC Entertainment (AMC) was up 10% shortly before Tuesday’s market close on a report that Amazon (AMZN) was exploring an acquisition of the beleaguered movie-theater chain. Jeff Bezos has been said to organize his entertainment lieutenants and investment advisers to consider such an acquisition, where hundreds of theaters would be used for a number of purposes like promoting Amazon Prime’s original films, cross-selling grocery delivery and even serving as product distribution hubs. AMC had a market capitalization of about $2.6B after Tuesday’s jump, though it has slid nearly 72% over the past year. Bezos might also want to wait and see if the stock continues to erode, or jump on a potential bankruptcy. (110 comments)
#Bankcrisis
“In light of the new challenges and priorities,” UBS (UBS) is bringing back Sergio Ermotti, who rebuilt and led the bank (from 2011 to 2020) in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The move will help UBS figure out how to integrate Credit Suisse (CS) into its operations after conducting an emergency rescue of the troubled lender for $3.25B in stock. Ermotti’s first challenges will include laying off thousands of staff, rethinking its business divisions and shoring up the confidence of investors, clients and the overall banking sector. Fearful of the bank crisis? SA contributor Jim Sloan discusses the worst potential outcome and where you should put your money now. (137 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 Fed’s Barr Speech
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $22B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 7-Year Note Auction
What else is happening…
Lululemon (LULU) legs higher on earnings beat, strong sales forecast.
On the gas: Carl Icahn spent over $220M in March buying this stock.
Pepsi (PEP) unveils new logo and talks digital investments.
FTX founder Bankman-Fried charged with paying $40M bribe.
More layoffs: Lucid (LCID) plans to slash nearly fifth of workforce.
Judge rules Google (GOOGL) should be sanctioned in Epic Games case.
Micron (MU) gets slight lift amid confidence in long-term outlook.
Spicing it up: McCormick (MKC) jumps 10% on latest earnings.
New strategy from the FDA aims to avoid another baby formula shortage.
Here are the top 10 dividend stocks, according to SA’s Quant Ratings.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand did well; China and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. The UAE, South Africa, Hungary and Portugal are up; Turkey, Greece, the Netherlands and Israel are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil is flat; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Taking a timeout
Israel has been rocked by weekly protests since a series of judicial reforms were unveiled in January, but the situation came to a head on Monday, as coalition divisions became apparent and the nation’s largest labor union threatened to shut down the country. Flights were grounded at Ben Gurion International Airport, ports, banks and schools began to close, while a strike by the medical association left hospitals with skeleton crews. Earlier, military reservists from key units had refused to serve, triggering national security threats, and while Israel’s defense minister flagged the concerns, he was fired for calling for a pause to the legislation.
Quote: “When it is possible to prevent a civil war through dialogue, I, as the prime minister, will take the time for dialogue,” Bibi Netanyahu said in a televised address from Jerusalem. “Out of national responsibility, and to prevent a rift in the nation, I decided to postpone the legislative process in order to reach a wider agreement and broad consensus. In one way or another, we are going to bring a reform that will restore the balance of power.”
The crisis has unnerved investors, with fluctuations in the country’s currency, the shekel, but it’s now back to where it started the year (check out currency and other market data on Seeking Alpha). One of the big worries is that the reforms could hinder Israel’s ability to attract capital inflows and maintain investment, making waves in the country’s tech sector, which is responsible for over half of its total exports. Credit rating agencies have also flagged longer-term risks associated with the weakening of institutions that could hurt the broader economy.
Big players in the Israeli tech scene include Amdocs (DOX), Check Point (CHKP), Elbit Systems (ESLT), Fiverr (FVRR), NICE (NICE), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) and Wix.com (WIX), while tech funds include the ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (IZRL) and the BlueStar Israel Technology ETF (ITEQ).
What are the reforms about? Both sides maintain that they are defending the soul of Israel’s democracy, but disagree on the appropriate balance of power between the branches of government. Arguments center around the process of appointing judges, jurisdiction of the Supreme Court, as well as standing and override mechanisms. Complicating the situation is that Israel does not have a written constitution, but rather a series of basic laws, meaning policy and value judgments play an outsized role, while there are also fewer checks on executive and legislative functions, with no second chamber or the concept of a presidential veto. (7 comments)
Binance up next
The ongoing regulatory crackdown in the crypto industry is continuing, with the latest target being the biggest cryptocurrency exchange – Binance. The exchange, along with its co-founder and CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, was sued by the CFTC on allegations that it violated certain trading and derivatives rules. It alleged that Binance solicited U.S. users via unregistered crypto derivatives offerings, and directed its employees and customers to hide their true location by using VPNs to evade compliance controls. Other crypto exchanges were also hit by the news. On Monday, Coinbase (COIN) and Bakkt (BKKT) closed down 8% and 5%, respectively, and are sliding again in the premarket session. (9 comments)
Critical minerals
Big investments in electric cars will require big purchases of critical minerals, with batteries making up anywhere from 25% to 50% of an EV’s cost. That means it’s even more crucial to secure supplies of lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel and graphite, especially as the Biden administration pursues a goal of phasing out the internal combustion engine with the climate-focused Inflation Reduction Act. A new deal announced in Washington is looking to change that, while negotiations are underway for a similar trade agreement. Also see Lithium Miners News For The Month Of March 2023 by SA Investing Group author Trend Investing. (9 comments)
Most shorted stocks
As Wall Street approaches the end of the first quarter, the major U.S. equity averages are trading higher for 2023 so far, despite the turmoil caused by the bank crisis. Still, many traders have made large bets against a handful of well-known names, including Silvergate Capital (SI), which has already lost nearly 90% of its value since the close of last year. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and WeWork (WE) also made the list of the top 10 stocks with the current highest short interest stakes on Wall Street (here is the full list). (13 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
9:00 Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Fed’s Barr Testify on Bank Oversight
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $43B, 5-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: More subscribers than not see financial system in order.
First Republic (FRC) rallies on rebound from bank turmoil slump.
First Citizens (FCNCA) ends Monday up 50% after SVB (SIVB) purchase.
Biden renews call for assault-weapons ban after Nashville school shooting.
Activist Elliott will not nominate directors for Salesforce (CRM) board.
Berkshire (BRK.B) hikes Occidental (OXY) stake after new purchases.
Lyft (LYFT) picks board member David Risher to be new CEO.
Disney (DIS) launches first of three job-cutting rounds this week.
Alphabet (GOOGL) pushes for dismissal of DOJ antitrust suit over ad tech.
Alibaba (BABA) to break into six units which may pursue individual IPOs.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Singapore did well; China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Russia, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel and Austria are up notably. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down slightly. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
March madness
First Citizens Bank (NASDAQ:FCNCA) has agreed to buy Silicon Valley Bank’s (NASDAQ:SIVB) deposits and loans, confirming an earlier report that surfaced on Sunday night. The purchase of $72B in assets will come with a 23% discount of $16.5B, while approximately $90B in securities and other assets will remain in receivership for disposition by the FDIC. Equity appreciation rights in First Citizens BancShares common stock – with a potential value of up to $500M – will also be received by the FDIC, which entered into a “loss-share transaction” with the lender to absorb commercial loan losses and minimize disruptions to the sector. In premarket trade, FCNCA is up 22% to $714/share.
Press release: “The 17 former branches of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association, will open as First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company on Monday, March 27, 2023. Customers of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank, National Association, should continue to use their current branch until they receive notice from First–Citizens Bank & Trust Company that systems conversions have been completed to allow full-service banking at all of its other branch locations. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $20B… The exact cost will be determined when the FDIC terminates the receivership.”
The deal marks the latest chapter of the current global banking crisis, which began on March 10, when SVB became the biggest U.S. bank failure since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Shortly thereafter, Signature Bank (SBNY) failed, Credit Suisse (CS) was rescued by UBS (UBS), and things are looking rocky for First Republic (FRC) and possibly Deutsche Bank (DB), as investors and analysts alike assess if something deeper is brewing. Bond traders have radically shifted expectations for monetary policy, deposits have been drained from smaller banks and transferred to big institutions, while policymakers from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chair Jerome Powell have sought to assure the public about the resilience of the U.S. financial system.
SA commentary: “The actual market and/or counterparty risks are very limited and strictly managed… however, loss of confidence may trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy,” wrote IP Banking Research with regards to Deutsche Bank, though the sentiment could apply to large swathes of the banking system. CashFlow Hunter is also back with his latest picks on where to pick up value amid the global banking crisis. The Seeking Alpha contributor correctly predicted big problems for Silicon Valley Bank parent SVB Financial Group (SIVB) three months before the firm collapsed in an article that stunned the financial world. (21 comments)
‘Symbiotic’ relationship
A weekend visit to China by Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook is sparking some investor discussion, especially following his comments at the high-profile China Development Forum. “Apple and China… grew together and so this has been a symbiotic kind of relationship that we have both enjoyed. I am thrilled to be back in China. It means the world to me and I feel really privileged to be here.” Only several days ago, TikTok was grilled over its relationship with China, while Apple has been reportedly looking to diversify its assembly operations, with an estimated 95% of total iPhone supply still coming from the country. Hardware tech may also be a reason for Warren Buffett to love Apple, but one analyst dives deeper into another answer to why AAPL is Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) largest position by far despite historically eschewing technology stocks. (10 comments)
Nukes in Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, comparing the plans to the storage of U.S. warheads in bases across Europe. Construction of a storage facility in Belarus will be completed by July, expanding Russia’s strike ability along NATO’s eastern border that includes Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. “U.S. officials are aware of the reported Russian announcement and will monitor the implications,” said Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the National Security Council. “We remain committed to the collective defense of the NATO alliance.” On Friday, Chicago wheat futures surged on short covering as well as market talk that Russia could halt exports following a sharp drop in global prices in recent weeks.
AI and your job
How will advanced chatbots impact the U.S. workforce? Pretty significantly, according to researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI, the group behind the creation of ChatGPT. “Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs (large language models), while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted.” The projections span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software (check out some of the most exposed professions here). Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI recently added support for ChatGPT plugins, including ones for Expedia (EXPE), Kayak.com (BKNG), Slack (CRM) and Shopify (SHOP).
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
1:00 PM Results of $42B, 2-Year Note Auction
5:00 PM Fed’s Jefferson Speech
What else is happening…
Bank stresses bring economy closer to recession – Fed’s Kashkari.
Aurora Cannabis (ACB) receives non-compliance notice from Nasdaq.
Twitter’s valuation down to $20B, while source code is leaked online.
Do gasoline stock lows signal a return to high U.S. pump prices?
WWE (WWE) receives millions from McMahon for investigation costs.
Outer Banks, Murdaugh Murders lead Netflix (NFLX) to top streaming ratings.
Ethereum (ETH-USD) is at risk of losing its dominant status in DeFi.
Microsoft’s (MSFT) chances of closing Activision (ATVI) deal raised at Citi.
EV buyers may be pulling back, but Tesla (TSLA) is still running hot.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) takes aim at SpaceX with Neutron launch plans.
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