Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Hong Kong, Thailand and the Philippines did well while India and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and little changed. France, Norway, Hungary, Austria and the Czech Repblic are up; Denmark, Germany and Finland are down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down, Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The Gemini Project
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is rounding up the old guard as it looks to respond to recent developments that could threaten its market dominance and $150B per year Search business. The pressure centers around artificial intelligence and the need to put the technology at the center of its product strategy. The November release of ChatGPT by the Microsoft-backed (MSFT) research company OpenAI was a big wake-up call, but since then there have been many other offerings, and the disruptive force has even seen Meta Platforms (META) pivot away from the metaverse.
Race is on: Co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have not spent much time at Google since they left their daily roles in 2019, but they have upped their visits to headquarters in Mountain View, California, to ensure that AI is front and center in the company’s plans. In fact, Brin is now in the office three to four days a week to develop the next large artificial intelligence system called Gemini that hopes to challenge GPT-4. Reports suggest that he’s even taken it upon himself to hire the most sought-after researchers in the field, building his own pool of intelligence as the competition intensifies.
To note, Brin is Alphabet’s second-largest individual shareholder after Page, with a stake valued at around $90B. They also control the majority of voting power at Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and sit on an executive committee with current CEO Sundar Pichai, who declared a “code red” about emerging AI back in February. Since then, Google has released its own chatbot called Bard that’s powered by LaMDA (Language Model for Dialogue Applications), put AI reinvention at the center of its I/O developer conference in May, and is even said to be testing an AI tool to write news stories and assist journalists.
SA commentary: “Google’s opportunity for AI goes way beyond just integration into its Search business… AI-supported applications will likely be used in Google’s Cloud platform as well as in its suite of productivity tools such as Google Docs,” writes SA analyst The Asian Investor. “Investors are [also] missing the AI-driven opportunities of the powerful YouTube platform,” noted Nexus Research. “Google also combined its two AI research groups, Brain and DeepMind, into one dubbed Google DeepMind,” added Bradley Guichard, outlining two ways to generate yield from the growth stock.
Rotation underway?
Major market averages ended mixed on Thursday as disappointing Q2 results from Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) dented the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND), which posted its worst session since March. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones (DJI) celebrated its longest rally since 2017, with a ninth day of gains, buoyed by Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) earnings beat. “While this doesn’t necessarily mean the market is about to tank, it does indicate that high-growth segments could see significant weakness, benefiting higher-value investments,” BN Capital’s Leo Nelissen told Seeking Alpha. Market participants will see whether that forecast will continue to hold true next week, when three Big Tech firms – Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) – are slated to report results. (76 comments)
No more limits
Two months after the U.S. neared its first-ever debt default, President Biden has created a team to assess ways to avert future standoffs over the country’s debt ceiling. The working group, consisting of administration officials and no Republican members, will be led by White House Counsel Stuart Delery and National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard. Recall that at the start of June, Biden signed a bill that suspended the government’s statutory debt limit through January 1, 2025. A deadline for the working group to finish its work has not yet been set and there’s no date for its first gathering. (43 comments)
Rice ban
Traders are already watching wheat costs following Russia’s exit from the Black Sea grain deal, but now, rice prices are in focus. India has banned exports of non-basmati white rice, effective immediately, to ensure adequate availability in the country and rein in soaring domestic prices. India’s export ban is expected to push food inflation even higher as it accounts for more than 40% of global rice exports. While the ban may ease domestic prices, international rates are expected to scale higher, as the onset of the El Niño weather pattern threatens to tighten supplies. Rice futures (RR1:COM) are nearing $16 per hundredweight count in July, the highest level since the end of May. (2 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
What else is happening…
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) outlook sends shivers across chip sector.
Apple (AAPL) faces issues with larger screens for higher-end iPhones.
Exxon (XOM) plans one of world’s largest lithium processing facilities.
Tornado-ravaged plant’s financial impact on Pfizer (PFE) likely minimal.
Heavily-shorted Sirius XM (SIRI) jumps 27% and triggers volatility halts.
Abbott (ABT) results top consensus as base business offsets COVID hit.
J&J (JNJ) posts Q2 beat; Kenvue (KVUE) exchange offer may come soon.
Cathie Wood’s ETFs see net outflows in 2023 despite stellar performances.
Altria (MO) unexpectedly hikes cigarette prices for the third time this year.
American Express (AXP) results on tap: Are consumers still revenge traveling?
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. India and the Philippines did well, but Japan, China and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. The UK, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Austria are up; Turkey, Finland, Israel and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up small amounts. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
In an instant
Modernizing an antiquated U.S. banking system, the Federal Reserve is about to launch a new instant-payments system that’ll be available 24/7/365. “FedNow” will be initially supported by 57 organizations like Bank of New York Mellon (BK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and U.S. Bancorp (USB), but there are plans to onboard more lenders and credit unions in the near future. FedNow, which has been in the works since 2019, will also bring the U.S. in line with other countries that have had a similar service in place for years, such as Brazil, the EU, India and the U.K.
Explainer: Currently, it can take anywhere from a day to many days for cash payments to settle – in order to verify a transaction, account amounts, and clearing of the funds. Under FedNow, all these steps would happen instantaneously, complementing similar private-sector real-time payments systems like The Clearing House’s RTP network. The central bank previously rolled out a “Fedwire” service, but that is mainly reserved for big corporate payments and is only operational during business hours. FedNow will help everyone from consumers to small businesses settle directly via central bank accounts, unlike closed peer-to-peer networks like Zelle (JPM) or Venmo (PYPL).
“PayPal is about to face serious competition at an infrastructure level it can’t compete with,” wrote SA analyst PropNotes in FedNow Makes PayPal A Value Trap. Meanwhile, John Mason forecasts the U.S. banking system will become smaller with fewer small and mid-sized banks due to technological advancements and new systems like FedNow. “Investment will be centered upon who is managing the transition the best,” he declared in The New Era For Commercial Banking.
Concerns about overreach? FedNow does not give the central bank outright access to consumer bank accounts or the ability to control transactions. In theory, it could make it easier to do that, but the U.S. government already has the ability to turn on and off accounts or freeze assets. FedNow is also not intended to eliminate any form of payment, including cash, and there would probably be easier ways to go about that, such as the issuance of central bank digital currencies.
Lights, camera, disappointment
Netflix (NFLX) dropped over 8% AH on Wednesday on mixed earnings report and soft revenue guidance despite a ramp-up in new subscribers and a company pivot going according to plan. At the same time, Netflix may be in a better position than traditional studios in terms of the disruptive double strike in Hollywood, given different production timelines and a long content pipeline. With regards to its account-sharing plans, Netflix said the cancel reaction was low and it’s seeing “healthy” conversion of borrower households into full-paying memberships. SA analyst Johnny Zhang also noted Netflix’s long-term growth outlook and free cash flow profile are encouraging, and the stock’s pullback can present a potential buying opportunity. (53 comments)
Heard on the call
Traders were also disenchanted with Tesla (TSLA) following Q2 results, though it took some time to drive in a specific direction. Shares were initially unchanged after the EV maker’s numbers topped estimates, but the stock fell 4% after CEO Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts if market conditions become unstable. He also referenced a slight decrease in Q3 production and did not give a specific timeline on Cybertruck’s launch, though Tesla is in early talks with other automakers to license full self-driving software, which could boost its margins. Investing Group Leader Jonathan Weber turned bearish on Tesla after the results due to the underlying margin picture, but many subscribers are hashing it out in the comments section. (124 comments)
Bargaining table
Ending a two-week standstill, the Teamsters Union will resume contract talks with UPS (UPS) next week to prevent a strike when the current contract expires at the end of the month. While the company has agreed to meet certain demands, the call for wage hikes for part-time workers remains contentious. The Teamsters represent more than half of the UPS workforce in the largest private-sector contract in North America. If a strike does happen, it would be felt broadly across the economy, with the shipping giant handling about 20M packages a day, or about a quarter of total parcel shipments in the U.S.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
What else is happening…
Bill banning stock trading by U.S. government officials introduced.
Microsoft (MSFT), Activision (ATVI) ask FTC to drop lawsuit.
Goldman Sachs’ (GS) big Q2 miss clouded by writedowns.
Pfizer’s (PFE) North Carolina plant damaged by tornado.
Discover Financial (DFS) slides after Q2 earnings miss.
Nasdaq (NDAQ) aborts launch of crypto custody service in U.S.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) stock dips as FY outlook dimmed.
Apple (AAPL) gains after building ChatGPT-style bot for staff.
IBM (IBM) rises despite mixed Q2 results; FY outlook reaffirmed.
United Air (UAL) takes off after upping forecast; Q2 results top estimates.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned up. Japan, India, Australia and Singapore did well; Hong Kong and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. The UK, Turkey, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, Israel and Sweden are up; the UAE and Russia are down. Futures in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Scorching summer
Extreme temperatures are being notched across the globe as a series of intense heat waves and domes refuse to let up. Phoenix just recorded 110 degrees Fahrenheit for the 19th straight day, Rome witnessed its hottest temperature ever, as well as other records across parts of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Weather alerts continue to remain in place, while health warnings encourage people to stay in cool indoor areas and to drink water regularly even if they do not feel thirsty.
Blazing hot: In total, some 58M people across the U.S. are expected to experience triple-digit temperatures this week and around 100M people are under heat advisories. Parts of Northern states have also broken daily temperature records, but things are way worse across the Southwest and Deep South. “Take the heat seriously and avoid time outdoors,” the National Weather Service warned in a bulletin. “Temperatures will reach levels that pose a health risk and are potentially deadly to anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the U.S.”
With power grid demand approaching record levels, industry leaders are talking about the energy market and the potential for new incentives surrounding additional power generation. There are also concerns about agriculture and farming, with water use going up to cool livestock and hydrate parched land and crops. Tourism is another economic worry in some parts of the country, with businesses forced to change their hours, while hot temperatures can jumpstart the wildfire season and prolong its devastating effects.
Stock watch: Shares of companies in the A/C space have been doing quite well, with Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) soaring 17% over the past month, compared to the 4% gain of the benchmark S&P 500. Related stocks that also aren’t cooling down include AAON (AAON), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Lennox International (LII) and Watsco (WSO). Potential blackouts have additionally driven up demand for backup power, with generator stocks like Generac (NYSE:GNRC) seeing a 15% gain over the last month alone. When zooming out over a longer timeframe, generator providers like Caterpillar (CAT) and Cummins (CMI) are also up 30% and 50%, respectively, since last summer.
Trading activity
Retail investors are turning bullish, according to Schwab (SCHW) CEO Walt Bettinger, as investor optimism returns to the stock market. The brokerage’s clients have been adding equity exposure over the past few months, with the volume of buy orders coming in 20% higher than sell orders in Q2. Meanwhile, Schwab’s earnings topped estimates, pushing its stock 13% higher on Tuesday, as it added 1M new brokerage accounts. Other rivals in the industry, like E-Trade from Morgan Stanley (MS), Merrill Edge from Bank of America (BAC), and Interactive Brokers (IBKR), also reported quarterly numbers during the same session. (3 comments)
Seizing assets
While Moscow’s takeover of Danone (OTCQX:DANOY) and Carlsberg’s (OTCPK:CABGY) Russian units was said to be temporary, Vladimir Putin is now handing over control of these assets to his closest allies. Chechen Agriculture Minister Yakub Zakriev, nephew of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, was appointed head of Danone Russia, while Putin allies Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchuk have signaled interest in Baltika. The Kremlin can “take assets away from foreigners and give them to regime-friendly owners. This is a signal that anything goes,” warned Alexandra Prokopenko, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. What other Western companies might be next?
Home turnover
As high mortgage rates in the U.S. keep homeowners on the sidelines, the home turnover rate in the first half of 2023 dropped to the lowest level in at least a decade, according to real estate brokerage Redfin (RDFN). About 14 of every 1K U.S. homes changed hands during the first six months of the year, down from 19 in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic. In order to change the dynamics, Redfin’s Taylor Marr said mortgage rates had to drop closer to 5%, which would help free up some inventory and bring monthly payments down. Other factors that could boost turnover include building more housing, zoning reforms, and subsidies via tax breaks. (14 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Housing Starts and Permits
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
1:00 PM Results of $12B, 20-Year Bond Auction
What else is happening…
Tesla (TSLA) earnings preview: All eyes on pricing, margin developments.
Streaming industry: What to expect from Netflix’s (NFLX) Q2 results?
Microsoft (MSFT) hits all-time high after unveiling pricing for AI tool.
ASML (ASML) beats top and bottom line estimates, raises FY outlook.
Carvana (CVNA) skyrockets after results and deal to restructure debt.
J&J (JNJ) is latest Big Pharma to sue over Medicare drug pricing.
Novartis (NVS) raises FY outlook, board endorses Sandoz spinoff.
Defense spending: Lockheed Martin (LMT) beats estimates as sales rise.
Gamers’ plea to block Activision (ATVI)-Microsoft (MSFT) deal is denied.
Broadcom’s (AVGO) VMware (VMW) purchase gets U.K. provisional nod.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. Japan and Thailand did well, but Hong Kong, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East did great. Turkey was weak, but the UK, Poland, Russia, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Israel, Sweden and the Czech Republic did well. Futures in the States point towards a slight positive open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Catching up
Ford Motor (F) is playing catch-up with Tesla (TSLA) as the battle for market share in the electric vehicle space escalates. Ford slashed the prices of its F-150 Lightning electric truck as it takes advantage of increased plant capacity, improved battery raw material costs, and continued work on scaling production. The Detroit automaker has been working on improving accessibility to help lower prices and shorten the wait times for the F-150 Lightning.
Dig deeper: Ford has been upgrading its Michigan plant to triple its annual run rate to a targeted 150K F-150 Lightning trucks starting this fall. The upgrades will lead to greater availability of a built-to-order truck as early as October. The updated F-150 Lightning prices are: Pro MSRP to $49,995 from $59,974; XLT 312A Extended Range MSRP to $69,995 from $78,874; Platinum Extended Range MSRP to $91,995 from $98,074.
Backdrop: CFRA noted that the ramp-up of F-150 Lightning has been sluggish and impacted by battery-related issues (only ~4.5K units delivered in Q2). Ford’s latest price cuts come just a couple of days after Tesla said the first Cybertruck rolled off the assembly line. “Ford hears footsteps of Cybertruck and Rivian (RIVN),” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Tesla previously made aggressive price cuts across its portfolio amid growing competition. In response, Ford had slashed the price of its Mustang Mach-E electric SUV by as much as $6K.
SA commentary: SA analyst Jordan Sauer believes investing in Ford is risky, given high leverage, while Tesla’s valuation decouples from its underlying growth prospects. But he’d pick Ford over Tesla, as “Ford is generating excitement with its new offerings, and I have it handily outperforming Tesla from here.” Pearl Gray Equity and Research believes Ford is undervalued due to growing consumer appetite and government support. (199 comments)
Lead woes
AT&T (T), Frontier Communications (FYBR), and Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) continued last week’s slide after a recent investigation revealed that telecom companies have left behind lead sheathed cables. TDS Telecommunications has located about 10 miles of lead cables in its network. Citi believes the concerns will likely be an overhang for at least a few months and potentially longer, echoing concerns by other Wall Street analysts. However, SA analysts do not seem fazed. Tradevestor expects AT&T to bounce back into high-teens once the panic is over. Investing Group Leader JR Research said while there is near-term downside for Verizon, its June lows should remain well-supported. (300 comments)
Grain deal
U.S. wheat and corn futures settled lower, reversing early gains after news of Russia’s decision to end participation in the deal that lets Ukraine export crops through the Black Sea. Analysts think the deal could still be renewed, as Russia has threatened to exit the agreement many times in the past. Russia said it would consider rejoining the pact if it saw “concrete results” on its demands. Wheat prices lost steam as “cooler heads” prevailed to tame the initial rally, RCM’s Doug Bergman said. “It’s the market saying we are not surprised by this,” he said, but warned that the prospect of tighter supplies remains real. (3 comments)
More rejection
More Americans are getting rejected for loans, while fewer are applying for any kind of credit, as banks tighten credit conditions amid rising borrowing costs. The rejection rate for U.S. credit applicants climbed to 21.8% in the twelve months through June, a Federal Reserve survey showed, marking the highest level since June 2018. The increase has been broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores under 680. The rejection rate for auto loans exceeded the application rate for the first time since the Fed’s SCE Credit Access Survey started in 2013, notching a new series high. (9 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Retail Sales
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Market uncertainty to reign this earnings season.
Senator Warren calls for probe into Tesla’s (TSLA) corporate governance.
Microsoft (MSFT), Activision (ATVI) planning later close to $69B deal.
Chip trade group asks Biden to ‘refrain’ from further curbs on China.
Eli Lilly (LLY) confirms Alzheimer’s drug slows cognitive decline.
Petrobras (PBR) maintains spending plan, will adjust dividend policy.
Summer letdown: New ‘Mission: Impossible’ draws $235M in opening.
Lithium Americas (LAC) gains as appeal of Thacker Pass mine denied.
China slowdown won’t tip U.S. economy into recession, says Yellen.
Cathie Wood writes down Twitter stake, but claims to remain bullish.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Hong Kong, India and Thailand did well; China, New Zealand and the Philippines posted losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the downside. Turkey and Israel are up, but France, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point mixed and flat open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Kicking into gear
This week will see some of the biggest companies report their second-quarter earnings, and expectations are quite low. Traders are hoping companies clear this low bar, which could in turn help the stock market defend this year’s rally. The biggest name on this week’s calendar is Tesla (TSLA), which already reported record Q2 deliveries. The remaining Big 6 banks will also report this week, apart from Netflix (NFLX) and IBM (IBM).
Expectations: Wall Street expects earnings for S&P 500 (SP500) companies to decline for the third straight quarter and see the steepest drop since Q2 2020. Consumer-discretionary companies are forecast to post the highest earnings growth, while the energy sector will likely see the biggest decline. “Leading into Q2 reporting, estimates have been revised down more than normal,” said 22V’s Dennis DeBusschere, adding that there’s a growing risk of negative revisions to 2024 estimates.
YTD rally: U.S. stocks have rallied this year despite stubbornly high inflation, weak consumer demand and the Federal Reserve’s drawn-out tightening cycle. All major indices gained YTD, with S&P 500 (SP500) up ~18%, Nasdaq Composite (COMP.IND) up ~36% and Dow Jones (DJI) 4% higher. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index’s rally was spurred by the recent AI wave, and investors will be on the lookout for more updates on the new technology.
SA commentary: “Earnings will need to be significantly better than expected… guidance must be good enough to turn earnings estimates from trending lower to higher,” said Mott Capital Management’s Michael Kramer. “If not, the recent rally will likely have been nothing more than a head fake.” Investing Group Leader Fear & Greed Trader said the earnings season will be just fine, but expects the market to stall. But Jean Boivin believes earnings will come under more pressure.
Chip talks
As China continues to retaliate with its own chip restrictions, the CEOs of Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM) are expected to visit Washington this week to discuss China policy. The chief executives will meet U.S. officials to discuss market conditions, export controls, and other matters that impact their businesses. The talks come in the wake of the U.S. planning fresh restrictions on chip exports to China, while China imposed its own set of export controls. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger’s meeting in Washington may be especially crucial as the company works to get its $5.2B purchase of Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) across the finish line. (58 comments)
Debt relief
The Biden administration will forgive $39B in student debt for 804K borrowers, in an effort to fix the federal student loan system’s income-driven repayment plans. According to the Education Department, payments that should have brought a borrower closer to paying off their debt hadn’t been properly accounted for. The move came after the Supreme Court struck down President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive up to $20K of student loans per borrower, saying it was unconstitutional. The ruling has pushed his administration to approach the student debt relief issue through a different route. (125 comments)
Gaming truce
Microsoft (MSFT) inked a binding deal with rival Sony (SONY) to keep the videogame Call of Duty on PlayStation once its acquisition of Activision (ATVI) is complete. The truce marks the end of a prolonged battle in which the Japanese conglomerate raised antitrust concerns over the $69B deal. The deal is similar to the 10-year pact with Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY). While the U.S. has approved the Activision deal, the U.K. is yet to clear it. U.K.’s antitrust regulator is expected to make a final decision by the end of August. Investing Group Leader Bram de Haas believes Microsoft is in a strong position in the U.K. “The odds for this deal to close have never before looked this good to me.” (22 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
What else is happening…
China’s economy grows less than expected in Q2.
Russia out of Black Sea grain deal, wheat prices surge.
First Tesla (TSLA) Cybertruck rolls off the production line.
Moscow takes control of Danone Russia, Carlsberg’s Baltika.
United Airlines (UAL), pilots reach deal with solid pay raises.
Ripple ruling bodes well for Coinbase Global (COIN) and altcoins.
Solar, wind to produce a third of global energy by end of decade.
Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) among Barclays’ top pharma picks.
Is saving this year’s summer box office an impossible mission?
For Q2, it’s Spotify (SPOT) over Netflix (NFLX) for KeyBanc.
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