Good morning. Happy Friday. Happy last day of the month and quarter.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Hong Kong, India and New Zealand did well; Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are leading. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Breadth Hints at a Reversal Soon —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The final countdown
The path towards avoiding a federal government shutdown is getting slimmer with a pending deadline of 12:01 AM ET on Sunday. Millions of federal employees and military service members will be furloughed in the event that additional funding cannot be approved, the SEC will operate with minimal market oversight, and economic data releases will be delayed at a sensitive time for the U.S. economy. Americans who also rely on federal assistance could face service disruptions, there will be delays on small business loans and clinical trials for medical treatments, exporters won’t be able to get licenses, while a prolonged shutdown could impact air travel or other industries that rely heavily on federal workers.
Where things stand: The Senate currently has bipartisan support for a stopgap measure that would extend funding until Nov. 17, but hardline Republicans in the House have rejected it. The group wants deeper spending cuts and to tie the bill to immigration and border enforcement. The holdouts are triggering a dilemma for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and some have even vowed to oust him if they don’t meet their demands. Overnight, the Republican-led House passed a series of partisan bills, including a defense bill that removed funding for Ukraine, but that has little chance of getting through the Democrat-led Senate.
Credit ratings agencies are also taking notice, with Moody’s warning that a shutdown would be credit negative for the U.S. Fitch downgraded America’s credit rating following the debt ceiling drama back in the summer, while S&P was the first to downgrade U.S. government debt in 2011. While budget deadlocks are not unusual in Congress, with shutdowns occurring 21 times over the past five decades, the latest one would “demonstrate the significant constraints that intensifying political polarization puts on fiscal policymaking at a time of declining fiscal strength, driven by widening fiscal deficits and deteriorating debt affordability.”
SA commentary: “Despite potential economic consequences, the S&P 500 and sectors dependent on government funding have historically been unaffected during the duration of the shutdowns,” writes Investing Group Leader Manika Premsingh, author of Green Growth Giants. “The impact of a shutdown depends on its nature and duration, with longer shutdowns having had a notable economic impact in the recent past.”
Just do it.
Nike (NKE) jumped 7.9% after the close on Thursday as quarterly profits beat expectations. While margins continued to decline, hurt by higher product costs and unfavorable foreign exchange rates, strategic pricing actions offset the impact, and margins are expected to improve further in Q2. China sales missed estimates due to forex headwinds, which are expected to continue for the next couple of quarters. Even so, CEO John Donahoe touted Nike’s market share gains in China. “We feel good about the opportunities in China in the coming quarters and into the medium to long term,” he said. See Nike’s results in charts here. (23 comments)
Treasury trouble
U.S. Treasury returns are on track for the worst month this year, as the bond market selloff continued after the Fed signaled that interest rates would remain higher for longer. The recent selloff has pushed the 30-year yield (US30Y) and the 10-year yield (US10Y) to their highest levels in over a decade. Traders are also closely eyeing the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – this morning, with a tame reading likely to assuage some market concerns. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Bill Ackman’s bet against 30-year Treasurys has paid off, and he expects long-term Treasury yields to rise even further amid stubbornly high inflation. (2 comments)
$125.98
Amazon (AMZN) traded flat to end at $125.98 a share on Thursday, notching the same closing price for the third straight session. The trading oddity comes as Amazon has been in the spotlight for a variety of reasons. The FTC this week filed its highly-anticipated lawsuit against the e-commerce giant, and while SA analyst Tradevestor expects the FTC ride to be bumpy, they remain a buyer of the stock. The success of Amazon’s Prime Day event is also at risk, with retail giants Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) setting early holiday sales promotions. Furthermore, Amazon is just four weeks away from reporting Q3 earnings and giving its guidance for the crucial holiday quarter. Will Amazon manage to close at $125.98 yet again today? (31 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
12:45 PM Fed’s Williams’ Speech
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Farm Prices
What else is happening…
Nvidia offices in France raided over suspected anti-competition practices.
China’s trade council requests U.S. to reconsider tech investment ban.
Microsoft considered Apple investment to gain Bing share, exec says.
NextEra Partners (NEP) continues plunge after slashing outlook.
CarMax (KMX) slides after flagging vehicle affordability headwinds.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT can now search the internet in real-time.
Hawaiian Electric (HE) defends actions taken prior to Maui fire.
Schumer may tie in criminal justice to marijuana banking bill.
BlackBerry (BB) in charts: Cybersecurity revenue tumbles.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) signs NDA in U.S. Steel (X) bid.
Is GameStop’s (GME) demise assured with new CEO?
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were weak. Japan, Hong Kong, India, New Zealand and Thailand posted big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. France, Turkey, Russia, Spain and Portugal are up; Poland and Hungary are down. Futures in the States point towards a mixed open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Breadth Hints at a Reversal Soon —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Limited supply
The latest data out of Cushing, Oklahoma, the nation’s major oil storage hub, has commodity traders on edge again, with a steep drop in inventories compounding worries about tight global supply. Last night, WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) even touched $95/bbl at 9 PM ET, continuing a big rally that began at the beginning of the summer. In fact, crude has soared about 40% over the past three months, with West Texas Intermediate jumping another 3.6% on Wednesday, marking its biggest gain since early May.
Inflation watch: Further drawdowns at Cushing would spell more trouble for an already tight oil market due to the deepening supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Inventory levels in Cushing have been cut in half since June, and now stand at just below 23M barrels, or a level that’s close to the operational minimum. If tank storage falls below 20M barrels, the oil can become sludgy and difficult to remove, potentially adding to upward pressure on prices and renewing fears of inflation.
“The U.S. has, in essence, bailed out the rest of the world from an oil supply shortage, but that is about to come to an end,” writes Investing Group Leader HFI Research. “U.S. crude storage will not build during refinery maintenance season [in October]… and one of the bear factors was demand, but demand is holding up well.” Oil stocks have also reflected similar sentiment since the summer, with big gains seen for companies like Chevron (CVX), Conoco (COP), EOG Resources (EOG), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Hess Corporation (HES), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Schlumberger (SLB) and Valero (VLO).
What else to watch: Bond yields are climbing along with oil prices, with the 10-year Treasury yield topping 4.6% on Wednesday. If things keep going, it can rekindle some fears and lead to the third consecutive year of losses for the bond market – a development that last happened in the early 1970s. That will have broad implications for other asset classes and currencies, with higher bond yields making the greenback more attractive. The next catalyst investors are also eyeing is tomorrow’s key inflation data, with a reading on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. (2 comments)
Another strike?
Two labor unions in Nevada, the Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and Bartenders Union Local 165, overwhelmingly voted to authorize a strike on the Las Vegas Strip, although a deadline hasn’t been fixed yet. The contracts for about 40,000 workers at 22 casino resorts owned by MGM Resorts (MGM), Caesars Entertainment (CZR), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) expired on Sept. 15. Workers’ demands include “the largest wage increases ever negotiated” in the Culinary Union’s history and better working conditions. This strike would be the latest in a series of walkouts the U.S. has seen in recent months, including the now-ended Hollywood writers’ strike and the Detroit strike, which may be expanded soon.
Exercise shocker
Battling over the connected fitness market for years, Lululemon (LULU) and Peloton (PTON) have inked a five-year global partnership that could change the exercise equipment and services landscape dramatically. Peloton will become Lululemon’s exclusive digital fitness content provider and Lululemon will become Peloton’s primary athletic apparel partner. Apart from initiatives to step up brand awareness and reach, a select number of Peloton Instructors will become Lululemon Ambassadors, while Lululemon will also discontinue its Studio Mirror device. The news sent Peloton soaring 15.7% after hours on Wednesday, while Lululemon ticked up slightly. (13 comments)
Soft landing
Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank’s strategists still expect the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing instead of a recession, on account of continued strength in consumer spending. He noted that the Federal Reserve is winning the battle against inflation, but flagged the risk of going too far in policy tightening. As for the ‘Basel III endgame’ proposal, Moynihan joined his counterparts in saying they would make U.S. banks less competitive. SA Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller also believes overall incoming economic data indicates a soft landing in 2024, but Bret Jensen feels the odds of a significant economic storm seem more than plausible. (2 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate Profits
9:00 Fed’s Goolsbee’s Speech
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Fed’s Cook’s Speech
1:00 PM Results of $37B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:00 PM Jerome Powell: “Conversation with the Chair: A Teacher Town Hall Meeting”
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
7:00 PM Fed’s Barkin: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
What else is happening…
Why does this shutdown selloff look different?
Meta (META) shows off Quest 3 headset, AI updates.
GameStop (GME) pops after naming Ryan Cohen as CEO.
Morgan Stanley lists high dividend-paying stock picks.
Johnson Controls (JCI) hit by ‘massive’ ransomware attack.
Judge rejects Exxon’s plan to restart offshore oil platforms.
Micron (MU) slips as mixed outlook overshadows results.
UBS, Credit Suisse face wider scrutiny over Russia sanctions.
Elizabeth Warren asks JetBlue CEO if Spirit deal will raise fares.
Uber (UBER) ropes in Analog Devices (ADI) exec as new CFO.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, China, Hong Kong and the Philippines led, while Singapore posted a loss. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mixed. Russia, Norway, Israel and Saudi Arabia are up; Poland, Turkey and Greece are down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Grab a pen
Hollywood writers are poised to return to work this morning after the governing boards of their unions approved a new contract with major studios. The strike, which lasted nearly five months, will still need to be endorsed by the writers themselves in early October, but the new deal will allow them to work during that process. Late-night talk shows will be the first to resume production, but scripted episodes and films will take longer to return, with the Screen Actors Guild still on strike and similar negotiations likely taking place after the Writers Guild of America ratifies its agreement.
What’s in the new contract? Writers were able to secure some wins, including salary increases, bonuses for high-performing shows and guarantees for a minimum number of staffers. Among the bigger provisions is the ability to share in the success of content that performs well on streaming services like Netflix (NFLX), or a residual payment based on viewership, which will be calculated by hours streamed and runtime. The cost of the strike is said to be in the billions of dollars, with the market values of Disney (DIS), Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) plunging by 20%-45% since early May (NBCUniversal (CMCSA) was the only major studio to buck the trend).
Another big reason behind the strike was to secure protections against the use of artificial intelligence. Under the new contract that runs until May 2026, writers have the right to use AI with consent from their production partners, but they can’t be forced into using or incorporating AI-generated content (which must come along with disclaimers). AI-generated storylines will also not be regarded as “literary material,” meaning computers cannot get screen credits or associated rights, though the language surrounding the usage of writers’ material to train AI was more controversial.
Will it be enough? “They spent months trying to craft words to protect writers from AI and they ended up with a paragraph that protected nothing from no one,” according to media mogul Barry Diller, former CEO of Paramount Pictures and founder of the Fox Broadcasting Company. “Fair use needs to be redefined, because what they have done is sucked up everything and that violates the basis of the copyright law. All we want to do is establish that there is no such thing as fair use for AI, which gives us standing.”
In the crosshairs
Amazon (AMZN) fell 4% on Tuesday after it was formally sued by the FTC and 17 states on charges that it used anticompetitive strategies to maintain its monopoly power. As widely expected, the lawsuit claimed the e-commerce giant’s actions blocked competitors and sellers from lowering prices, overcharged sellers, and prevented rivals from fairly competing. “The lawsuit is wrong on the facts and the law, and we look forward to making that case in court,” Amazon responded in a statement. This is a landmark antitrust suit, as Amazon controls about 40% of the e-commerce market, with SA analyst Bradley Guichard seeing three potential outcomes to the case. (243 comments)
Rising theft
Target (TGT) will shutter nine underperforming stores in the U.S. on Oct. 21 due to increased violence and organized retail crime at the locations. The store closures are expected to have a positive impact on margins. Retail theft has been on the rise in the U.S., climbing nearly 20% last year, according to the National Retail Federation. The top five areas that were affected were Los Angeles, San Francisco/Oakland, Houston, New York and Seattle. Other retailers such as Dick’s Sporting (DKS), Lowe’s (LOW) and Macy’s (M) have also pointed to a rise in crime as a factor in reduced earnings and expect the trend to continue. (140 comments)
ChatCIA
The Central Intelligence Agency is slated to roll out a new software tool to help it sift through the mountain of publicly available data, akin to ChatGPT – the popular chatbot created by Microsoft (MSFT)-backed OpenAI. The CIA did not say what model will be used to train the tool or how it will protect data from getting onto the internet, but the model will be available to 18 different government agencies, including the FBI and NSA. ChatGPT has taken the world by storm ever since its launch, resulting in an explosion of investment in generative AI. Riding the AI wave, OpenAI has reportedly held talks with investors about an existing share sale that could value it at $80B-$90B. (19 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $24B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $49B, 7-Year Note Auction
What else is happening…
President Biden joins United Auto Workers on the picket line.
Fed’s Kashkari sees 40% chance of ‘significantly’ higher rates.
JPMorgan (JPM) to pay $75M to settle lawsuit over Epstein ties.
Samsung SDI to invest $2B in EV battery plant with Stellantis (STLA).
UPS (UPS) plans to hire 100K seasonal workers for holiday rush.
China Evergrande (OTC:EGRNF) chairman under police watch.
Costco in charts: Adjusted comp sales growth continues to slow.
VMware/Broadcom deal spread narrows on China review update.
Liberty Media (LSXMK) proposes combination with Sirius XM.
Peloton (PTON) cofounder, product chief Cortese to step down.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were weak. The Philippines did great, but Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Indonesia and Thailand posted moderate or big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Denmark and Hungary are up, but France, Germany, the UAE, Russia, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Israel, Austria and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
AI in translation
New strides are being made on the AI front as many of the revolution’s promising technologies start to become commercialized. Spotify (SPOT) is the latest company to utilize OpenAI’s newly released voice generation technology, in the hope of attracting new users, audiences and revenue. Prior artificial intelligence efforts at Spotify centered more around personalization technology, like AI DJ, but the new voice cloning feature can go on to impact many industries and bring down the barriers of the spoken word on an international scale.
How it works: Podcasts originally recorded in English will now be available in other languages, while keeping the speaker’s “distinctive speech characteristics.” While the project is still in the pilot phase, the new tech is capable of crafting realistic synthetic voices from just a few seconds of real speech. Episodes are currently available for podcasters including Kristen Bell, Lex Fridman and Steven Bartlett, with AI-powered voice translations into Spanish. French and German will be added soon, as well as more episodes with podcasters Bill Simmons, Dax Shepard, Monica Padman and Trevor Noah.
“By matching the creator’s own voice, Voice Translation gives listeners around the world the power to discover and be inspired by new podcasters in a more authentic way than ever before,” noted Ziad Sultan, Spotify VP of Personalization. “We believe that a thoughtful approach to AI can help build deeper connections between listeners and creators, a key component of Spotify’s mission to unlock the potential of human creativity.”
What to watch: The announcement coincided with several big developments, including Amazon (AMZN) investing up to $4B in AI startup Anthropic, Getty (GETY) launching a generative AI tool for images, and Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI outlining that ChatGPT can now “see, hear, and speak.” The latter even referenced the collaboration with Spotify (SPOT), saying it opened the door to many creative and accessibility-focused applications. There are fresh risks, however, with the new capabilities granting access for “malicious actors to impersonate public figures or commit fraud.”
Credit negative
Ratings agency Moody’s has weighed in on the standoff in the U.S. over federal spending, saying a government shutdown would be “credit negative” for the country’s sovereign rating. “While a short-lived shutdown would be unlikely to disrupt the economy, it would underscore the weakness of U.S. governance strength,” Moody’s cautioned, highlighting the risk of intensifying political polarization. Recall that Fitch had cut its rating on the U.S. to reflect its growing debt burden and governance issues. A majority of WSB subscribers also feel that a shutdown is likely with Republicans divided on a stopgap spending bill. Take the WSB survey here. (14 comments)
Pressing pause
As the United Auto Workers’ strike against Detroit automakers continues, Ford (F) has halted construction of its $3.5B electric vehicle battery plant in Marshall, Michigan. “We’re pausing work and limiting spending on construction on the Marshall project until we’re confident about our ability to competitively operate the plant,” said spokesperson T.R. Reid. Over the weekend, Ford warned that there were still significant gaps in its talks with the UAW. “We believe the UAW strike and ensuing pay raise is capable of driving Ford’s stock down as much as 10%,” said Investing Group Leader Livy Investment Research, adding that wage hikes could drive a $6B wipeout from Ford’s market cap. (91 comments)
How high?
The world may not be prepared for the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate rising to 7%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned, adding that could be the worst case with stagflation. “If they’re going to have lower volumes and higher rates, there will be stress in the system,” he declared. Dimon also called on clients to be prepared, saying “Warren Buffet says you find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. That will be the tide going out.” His comments contrast with the wider consensus that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, with the FOMC’s dot plot only projecting one more rate hike in the cards. (27 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
1:00 PM Results of $48B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
1:30 PM Fed’s Bowman’s speech
What else is happening…
Goldman: Expensive oil a ‘manageable headwind,’ won’t derail economy.
IEA: Delaying emission cuts will make net zero target impossible.
3M (MMM) weighs restarting PFAS manufacturing at Belgium plant.
Citi lists 20 stocks on pullback to consider for long-term investing.
Morgan Stanley: Pratt engine uncertainties merit caution over RTX.
Sizzling nuclear stocks rally to 52-week highs across the board.
Pfizer (PFE) resumes production at North Carolina plant hit by tornado.
Deutsche Bank’s (DB) DWS to pay $25M to settle SEC probes.
Alcoa (AA) names operating chief William Oplinger as new CEO.
Is Nvidia’s (NVDA) decline over GPU concerns a buying opportunity?
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines did well; China, Hong Kong South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down big. Turkey and Greece are up, but the UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Finland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point towards a negative open for the cash market.
————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil is flat; copper is down. Gold and silver down slightly. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Deadlock continues
The budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn’t look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019, as hardline Republicans continue to hold off on agreeing to a stopgap spending bill. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1. If Congress fails to reach a spending deal by then, thousands of federal workers will be furloughed without pay.
Republicans divided: House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy is expected to push an ambitious plan this week, seeking approval of four large bills that include military and homeland security funding. The aim is to convince far-right Republicans to support a stopgap spending bill, also called a continuing resolution. Hardline Republicans want much deeper spending cuts than what was previously agreed upon, calling for about $120B in additional cuts for the new fiscal year alone. But U.S. President Joe Biden said the deal reached in June would’ve cut the budget deficit by $1T over the next 10 years. “Now a small group of extreme Republicans don’t want to live up to the deal,” he said. Meanwhile, Republican Representative Tony Gonzalez pushed back on McCarthy’s stopgap proposal, saying it doesn’t solve the problem.
Wider impact: Most experts believe the government shutdown will be temporary, and its wider impact will likely be limited. According to Morgan Stanley, the last 20 government shutdowns that occurred since 1976 “appear to have had limited impact on the economy.” As for bond prices, a shutdown may cause some “temporary instability”, but this is not a given.
Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, expects the spending bills to pass without incident, given that past shutdowns tended to resolve quickly with minimal impact. SA analyst Justin Purohit also expects a last-minute deal, although the process will likely be messy. “Though contentious, past standoffs have always proved temporary, with little lasting impact on U.S. equity markets,” he concluded. Take the WSB survey. (5 comments)
Win for writers
The Writers Guild of America and Hollywood studios reached a tentative agreement Sunday night that sets the stage to end a strike that has been going on since May. The writers’ union said in a letter to its members that an agreement in principle had been reached on all key points. The final contract language still needs to be firmed up with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents major studios including Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), Netflix (NFLX) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). After that, the Guild’s leadership and members need to vote on the deal. The tentative deal doesn’t directly impact the ongoing actors’ strike. (13 comments)
Over to Detroit
While progress has been made in Hollywood, Detroit automakers are still at loggerheads with union workers. The United Auto Workers walkout ratcheted up a level after the union added 38 General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA) locations. UAW President Shawn Fain said talks with Ford (F) saw “real progress”, but negotiations with Stellantis and GM remain problematic. Ford noted that there were “significant gaps to close.” S&P Global Mobility believes the UAW is ensuring it still has leverage by holding off striking at vehicle, engine and components facilities. The White House is widely expected to step in, with President Joe Biden arriving in Detroit tomorrow to “stand in solidarity with the UAW,” he said. (164 comments)
Dodging sanctions
Russia appears to have succeeded in avoiding G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports, as Russia’s oil revenues may total at least $15B more in 2023 than they would’ve previously. This is a result of higher crude prices and a lower discount on Russia’s own oil. Nearly 75% of all seaborne Russian crude flows traveled without western insurance in August, implying that Russia has become adept at circumventing the G7’s $60/bbl oil price cap. Enforcement concerns have been mounting in the West over the price cap, with Russian Urals crude (URDB:COM) trading above $60 since July. While Russia’s oil sector still faces issues including a tight diesel supply, the latest trading figures suggest more oil revenues will be flowing into Vladimir Putin’s war chest. (16 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
What else is happening…
Apple (AAPL) to boost India production over five times to $40B.
Thinking of buying a used electric vehicle? Think very carefully.
Bill Ackman sees 30-year bond rising to 5.5%, remains short bonds.
Are updated COVID boosters really needed? Americans are divided.
FTC lawsuit against Amazon may be filed as soon as Tuesday.
Madison Square (MSGS) has no plans to sell Knicks, Rangers.
GLP-1 drugs likely impacting demand for aesthetics procedures.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel Securities charged for short sale rule violation.
Once-hyped NFTs are now largely worthless, demand at a standstill.
These analysts see industrial real estate picking up steam in 2024.
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