Before the Open (Oct 23-27)

Good morning. Happy Friday.

The Asian/Pacific markets mostly posted solid gains. New Zealand and the Philippines were weak, but Japan, China, Hong Kong, India and Thailand were strong. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mixed and little changed. Norway and the Czech Republic are up; France, Turkey and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point towards an up open for the cash market.

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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…

Crypto crime

Scrutiny is rising on the role of cryptocurrency in financing terror in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. In a speech set to be given in London this morning, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo will warn crypto firms against allowing their platforms to be used to finance or support terrorist organizations, as geopolitical tensions heat up across the globe. Cryptocurrencies have also gone on a rip in recent weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) soaring a total of 30% to as high as $35,000, though many have attributed the big run-up to short squeezes and growing optimism for the approval of a spot ETF.

Quote: “There are those in the digital asset space who wish to innovate without regard to consequences instead of doing so responsibly, including protecting against illicit financing,” Adeyemo will say in his prepared remarks. “Let me be clear: We will use every tool available to go after any person or platform that is facilitating the movement of resources for terrorists. Our expectation is that financial institutions, digital asset companies and others in the virtual currency ecosystem will take steps to prevent terrorists from being able to access resources. If they do not act to prevent illicit financial flows, the United States and our partners will.”

Crypto research firms Elliptic and BitOK estimate that Gaza-based terror groups have raised over $130M in crypto since May 2021, including $41M by Hamas and $93M by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, though at times they have paused campaigns due to “hostile efforts” against donors. Over the past few weeks, the cyber branch of the Israeli Police also froze several crypto accounts belonging to Hamas, which sought to garner more funds on social media following its brutal assault. Decentralized finance ((DeFi)) had once touted the ability to send or receive funds without relying on intermediaries, but enforcement authorities might see a silver lining in being able to pinpoint transactions, addresses and wallets on a ledger that creates permanent public records.

Elsewhere: More U.S. Treasury officials are in Qatar this week to explore ways to crack down on international financial support for terrorist groups. U.S. forces have repeatedly come under fire in Iraq and Syria over the past two weeks, resulting in 19 troops being diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries, as well as the death of an American contractor who died of a heart attack while trying to shelter during a drone strike. In response, the U.S. launched airstrikes last night on two weapons and ammunition facilities in eastern Syria that were being used by Iranian-linked groups. (4 comments)

GDP reaction

The first reading of U.S. GDP for Q3 blew every analyst estimate out of the water, especially when most economists had expected the country to be mired in a recession by this time in 2023. The American economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.9% to reflect the strongest quarter since Q4 2021, exceeding the +4.2% expected and powering up from the 2.1% advance in Q2. The increase was driven by strong consumer spending, among other variables, with SA users quick to comment on what the fresh data might mean for the Federal Reserve: “Based on this strong growth, another interest rate hike by year-end is a sure thing,” wrote Investing Group and Premium subscriber Value Digger. “I think you’re getting ahead of yourself,” countered 2MuchDebt. “November Fed meeting is currently a 100% chance of no hike and December Fed meeting is currently a 75.5% chance of no hike according to Fed Fund futures.” (152 comments)

Speed bumps

After suspending operations in San Francisco, General Motors’ (GM) Cruise self-driving vehicle unit is pausing the operations of its entire autonomous vehicle network. Things started to spiral after the California DMV froze Cruise’s permits after an Oct. 2 incident in which one of the company’s AVs was involved in a hit-and-run. “The most important thing for us right now is to take steps to rebuild public trust,” Cruise said in a statement. “In that spirit, we have decided to proactively pause driverless operations while we take time to examine our processes, systems, and tools.” Besides San Fran, Cruise has operations in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Miami. (3 comments)

Prime earnings

Stock index futures were higher Friday as the broader market faces a second-straight down week, but the direction could change as the September core PCE price index arrives along with income and outlays. Helping boost sentiment following a mixed bag of tech earnings was Amazon (AMZN), which reported quarterly profits that tripled to nearly $10B. AMZN shares rose 5.3% AH on Thursday to $126 with cost cuts and strong sales brushing aside any concerns. Generative AI is also being seen as worth tens of billions of dollars in revenue, according to CEO Andy Jassy, who is “very optimistic about it.” (90 comments)

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:00 Consumer Sentiment
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

What else is happening…

Ford (F) follows GM (GM) in withdrawing outlook for 2023.

PC rebound at Intel (INTC) helps Q3 results blow past expectations.

Mastercard’s (MA) quarterly gross dollar volume misses consensus.

Federal Reserve ends enforcement action against Citigroup (C).

Enphase Energy (ENPH) plunges on revenue miss, weak guidance.

UFC (TKO) taps AB InBev (BUD) in largest-ever sponsorship deal.

Trouble for Marlboro maker Altria’s (MO) smokeable products segment.

Global economic uncertainty is weighing on this shipping giant.

Higher prices help Chipotle (CMG) top earnings estimates.

Google (GOOGL) doesn’t want to follow Yahoo down the path to ‘roadkill.’


Good morning. Happy Thursday.

The Asian/Pacific markets suffered some big losses. China did well, but Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Indonesia and Thailand were down big. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. Turkey and Portugal are up, but the UK, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, the UAE, Russia, South Africa, Norway, Spain, Israel and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.

————— VIDEO: Going Short with Technical Indicators —————

The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are up.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…

Tech power

Tesla down, Netflix up, Google down, Microsoft up… Meta down. Traders are judging the tech earnings season as a mixed bag of results, sending shares of each company in opposite directions after they report quarterly results. One more tech giant, Amazon (AMZN), is set to report this afternoon to round out the week, but markets are still digesting the latest update from the firm once known as Facebook, which is weighing on tech shares and the broader market.

On the move: Meta Platforms (META) initially rose 4% in AH trading on Wednesday, with strong revenues, profits and users all topping forecasts, but the sentiment didn’t last long. It reversed course to fall nearly 4% by the end of its conference call, which made several references to “greater uncertainty” and “volatility,” especially with regard to the advertising market that still represents most of the company’s revenue. Doubts over the macro landscape also led Meta to hold off on a 2024 revenue outlook, while its capex plans for the coming year increased meaningfully, as well as costs associated with infrastructure, payroll expenses, and AR/VR investments as it further scales the metaverse. Meta in charts

“We recognize that we have very ambitious investments on the horizon, including over a long-time horizon with our Reality Labs work and newer, equally ambitious investments we’ve added in the gen AI road map more recently,” CFO Susan Li declared. “And we recognize that we have to earn the ability to invest in all of those things by delivering consolidated operating income growth over time. So that’s something we’re very much focused on.” Reality Labs, the AR/VR division of Meta, posted an operating loss of $3.7B in the latest quarter and has lost $11.5B so far this year. Is Meta the best AI company you didn’t know about?

What to watch: The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP.IND) fell into correction territory on Wednesday following the latest tech earnings. Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) plunged nearly 10% for its worst day since the start of the COVID pandemic in March 2020, while the 10-year Treasury yield moving back to the 5% level didn’t help the situation. The Nasdaq had a bumper year until the middle of the summer, when the Fed began messaging that interest rates could stay higher for longer, but investors can still ring the register with a gain of 23% YTD.

New speaker

The odds of a government shutdown next month may be lower with the election of new U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, which comes more than three weeks after the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Johnson is expected to back a stopgap measure that funds the government at current levels till either Jan. 15 or April 15 while Congress works on reaching a consensus on 12 spending bills. Note that Johnson voted against the temporary bill that previously averted a shutdown. The “shutdown risk is still probably 20%-30%, but it’s much less than it was a couple of weeks ago,” said Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines. (2 comments)

Tentative deal

It looks like the devastating auto strike may be nearing its end, as Ford Motor (F) and the UAW union reached a tentative agreement to end a six-week-long walkout. The deal includes a 25% general wage hike over four years, and may become the template to resolve negotiations with other Detroit automakers including General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA). The next step is for UAW National-Ford Council leadership to meet on Oct. 29 on whether to send it to members for final approval. Investing Group Leader David Alton Clark believes Ford is stuck in a lose/lose situation, given the strike’s impact on its profit and rising costs if it agreed to the UAW’s “unrealistic” demands. (70 comments)

Economic landing

Driven by resilient consumer spending, the U.S. economy likely grew sharply during Q3, although economists expect a slowdown ahead given “higher-for-longer” interest rates. U.S. gross domestic product is expected to have risen 4.3% in Q3, more than double from the 2.1% pace seen in Q2. The sharp growth expectation was cemented by the latest retail sales report, which came in much stronger than expected, though upcoming risks include cooling consumer spending, a looming government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical turmoil. “While investors seem to be pricing a soft landing, history is not on their side,” cautioned Investing Group Leader Fear & Greed Trader. (10 comments)

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 GDP Q3
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
9:00 Fed’s Waller’s Speech
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $38B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

What else is happening…

Bill Ackman made $200M from his bet against 30-year Treasuries.

Cruise losing its California license could have big ramifications.

Morgan Stanley (MS) veteran Ted Pick named as CEO successor.

Honda (HMC) calls off affordable EV development with GM (GM).

IBM (IBM) gains after strong results, free cash flow outlook boost.

Mattel slides as Barbie boom fails to meaningfully raise outlook.

Boeing (BA) trades sideways as planemaker posts mixed results.

Endeavor (EDR) soars as Silver Lake weighs take-private offer.

UPS to buy reverse logistics firm Happy Returns from PayPal.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) bags FAA authorization to resume launches.


Good morning. Happy Wednesday.

The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, China and Thailand did well, while South Korea, India and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and little changed. Poland, the UAE, Hungary and Saudi Arabia are up; Turkey and Italy are down. Futures in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.

————— VIDEO: Going Short with Technical Indicators —————

The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is flat; silver is down. Bonds are down.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…

Beat and a miss

Tech earnings are beginning to pour in and the market is watching. That’s because the largest tech companies in the S&P 500 (SP500), like the Magnificent 7, have been responsible for the majority of the index’s 11% YTD advance, which stalled in September and is still looking for its next catalyst. Meta Platforms (META) and Amazon (AMZN) are also set to report results this week, but the festivities kicked off in AH trading on Tuesday with two of the biggest players in the industry.

The beat: Microsoft (MSFT) climbed 3.9% to $343/share after posting fiscal first-quarter results that topped expectations, aided by strong growth in its Azure cloud business. Enthusiasm also continues to build for the company’s new artificial intelligence products, like the coming AI-powered assistant for Microsoft 365 called “Copilot.” Opening the books a bit deeper, heavy investment in AI was seen in capital expenditures, which soared 70% Y/Y to a record $11.2B, while Microsoft’s cloud computing services may further benefit from the coming revolution. Microsoft in charts

The miss? Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL) fell 6.1% AH to $130/share despite the company handily topping earnings expectations with its best revenue growth in five quarters. One big area traders focused on, especially in the wake of Microsoft’s earnings, was the expansion of Google’s cloud division, whose servers power the firm’s AI programs. Sales growth there slowed to 22% last quarter, coming in below expectations of 26%, which is troublesome for a company looking to get a bigger slice of the AI pie as its Search and Advertising businesses mature. Alphabet in charts

SA commentary: “Robust performances in the Search and YouTube businesses are likely being overshadowed by a sharp deceleration in Google Cloud and management’s guidance for capex spending,” wrote Investing Group Leader Ahan Vashi, who added that in light of the post-Q3 selloff, GOOGL stock now looks fairly valued. “Assuming a base case P/FCF (exit) multiple of ~20x for 2027-28, Alphabet’s stock could rise from $130 to $252.6 per share at a CAGR rate of 14.21% over the next five years.” (9 comments)


Apple (AAPL) has backed the Biden administration’s push for a U.S. right-to-repair bill, as the iPhone giant shifts its stance after years of complaints over the high costs of fixing its devices. It has also committed to make the components, tools and documentation needed for fixing its hardware available to independent repair shops and consumers nationwide. Apple is already required to do so in California, which passed its Right to Repair Act earlier this month, but a national right-to-repair law, in which Apple sees “real value,” will likely push other companies to follow suit. The bill is expected to help American consumers save $49.6B annually. (6 comments)

Addictive algorithms

Meta Platforms (META) has been sued by California and more than two dozen U.S. states, which allege that Instagram and Facebook exploit young people for profit and feed them addictive content. “In seeking to maximize financial gains, Meta has repeatedly misled the public about the substantial dangers of its social media platforms,” the lawsuit claimed. New York Attorney General Letitia James blamed Meta and other social media firms for children and teenagers suffering from “record levels of poor mental health.” Meta, Snap (SNAP), TikTok and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) are all facing hundreds of similar lawsuits. Note that Meta will post its Q3 results after the bell today. (119 comments)

Drivers needed

General Motors’ (GM) Cruise is pausing its self-driving operations in San Francisco, after California ordered it to remove such cars from state roads, citing safety concerns. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles, which previously directed Cruise to cut its robotaxi fleet by 50%, also suspended the firm’s driverless testing permits. The development follows a series of accidents involving Cruise cars, which had already prompted an investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The heightened scrutiny will likely add pressure on GM, which is also facing roadblocks in its electric-vehicle plans due to the UAW strike that was just expanded to its Texas assembly plant. (24 comments)

Today’s Economic Calendar
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 Results of $26B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $52B, 5-Year Note Auction
4:35 PM Jerome Powell’s Speech

What else is happening…

Earnings misses are being punished more than beats are being rewarded.

SunPower (SPWR) plunges on plan to restate certain financial results.

Visa (V) earnings beat consensus on resilient spending and volumes.

China unveils fresh stimulus, although economic growth fears linger.

Coca-Cola (KO) rallies as strong pricing drives Q3 organic sales beat.

Best day in 15 years: Verizon (VZ) boosts guidance for free cash flow.

General Electric (GE) soars after strong results, higher guidance.

Snap (SNAP) fluctuates after jumping postmarket on earnings beat.

Teladoc Health (TDOC) slides on soft outlook; plans operational review.

Arm (ARM), Nvidia among possible winners in new chip development.


Good morning. Happy Tuesday.

The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. China, South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore didi well; Hong Kong, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Poland, Turkey, Greece, Finland and Portugal are leading. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.

————— VIDEO: Going Short with Technical Indicators —————

The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up small amounts. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…

Bonds and Bills

Wild swings continue to envelop the bond market, with two notable names in the industry making fresh calls on the sector. The pairs’ statements also continue to come hours apart from each other, as they did on Aug. 3, when they both became growling bond bears and added to the pressure on long-term Treasuries. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) jumped nearly an entire percentage point, climbing from 4.07% to top 5% yesterday, while the 30-year Treasury (US30Y) went from 4.16% to a high of 5.15% in just under two months.

Old tweets

Bill Ackman: “If long-term inflation is 3% instead of 2% and history holds, then we could see the 30-year T yield = 3% + 0.5% (the real rate) + 2% (term premium) or 5.5%, and it can happen soon. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times.”

Bill Gross: “10 yr yields? Overall bearish”

New outlook

Bill Ackman: “We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests.”

Bill Gross: “Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). ‘Higher for longer’ is yesterday’s mantra.”

Remember, the last time rates were this high was pre-2008, and it seems like the Bills now feel that the rout in Treasuries seen in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic has gone too far. Markets appeared to have adopted that view on Monday, with the yield on the US10Y sinking 20 bps to a low of 4.80%, but it is too soon to tell if that sentiment will hold. Term premium is the word on Wall Street, as well as regular investors that are looking at related bond ETFs, but there are many factors at play that can have impacts on benchmark yields. Among them are forecasts and actual economic data, debt sustainability, and geopolitical developments, with eyes tightly kept on the Federal Reserve and words from the officials on financial conditions.

SA commentary: “The important question is, what is driving rates and yields at different maturity,” writes analyst Adam Vincze in Inversion Analytics Suggest Bottom In Long-Term Treasuries, Points To Fed Cuts In 6 Months. “The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted since 2022, signaling a potential economic downturn, and analytics suggest the ballooning budget deficit is hiding weakness in the economy.” (70 comments)

Cuckoo for cocoa

As Halloween approaches, it looks like candies could become more expensive as hotter and drier weather caused by El Niño is tightening the global cocoa supply. Cocoa futures (CC1:COM) in New York jumped as much as 2.5% to $3,786 per metric ton on Monday, marking the highest level in over 44 years. The 2022/23 season has already seen a deficit of about 100K tons of cocoa, while hoarding of cocoa beans has been on the rise due to expectations of higher prices. SA analyst Weather Wealth previously forecast that higher cocoa prices can benefit large chocolate brand owners but strain retailers, restaurants, and ingredient suppliers. (2 comments)

Live traffic

Ahead of a potential ground invasion into Gaza, Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Google has temporarily disabled local real-time traffic updates on its apps Google Maps and Waze. Apple (AAPL) Maps also disabled such updates in Israel, with the move reportedly implemented at the request of the Israel Defense Forces. “As we have done previously in conflict situations, we have temporarily disabled live traffic conditions and busyness information out of consideration for the safety of local communities,” a Google Maps spokesperson said. Google had made a similar move last year, when it disabled real-time vehicle and foot traffic data in Ukraine after Russia invaded the country. (6 comments)

Crypto rally

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) bulls are back, with the top cryptocurrency briefly touching $35K today, as traders continued to wager on the potential approval of what would be the first U.S. exchange-traded fund that invests directly in the token. “Over the past month, growing investor confidence in the imminent approval of BTC Spot ETFs has driven considerable momentum toward BTC,” said Matteo Greco, analyst at Fineqia. “This, combined with the scheduled BTC halving in the latter part of April 2024 has prompted investors to favor BTC over other digital assets.” The bullish price action buoyed crypto-related stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). (26 comments)

Today’s Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
1:00 PM Results of $51B, 2-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply

What else is happening…

WSB survey results: See what stock is the top ‘Magnificent 7’ holding.

Nvidia (NVDA), AMD making ARM-based chips to rival Intel (INTC).

Chevron (CVX) sees no antitrust issues with Hess (HES) takeover.

Tesla (TSLA): DOJ is still asking questions on Autopilot features.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) drops out of U.S. Air Force tanker bidding.

Li-Cycle (LICY) collapse seen as a potential warning for EV sector.

AGNC Investment (AGNC) sees lower Q3 earnings; stock slides.

IEA sticks to fossil fuel forecast; undercuts calls for more investment.

Redfin: New home listings tick up in September, but cancellations rise.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) falls as megadeals remove potential buyers.


Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.

The Asian/Pacific markets suffered big losses. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines all posted moderate or big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Turkey is up, but the UK, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Israel, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are down moderately. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.

————— Online Course: Jason Leavitt’s Masterclass in Trading —————

The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.

Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…

Opening the books

There’s a lot on the plate for investors this week as they continue to work their way through earnings season. Headlines are now shifting from the big banks to mega-cap tech, with Tesla (TSLA) already kicking things off last week for the “Magnificent 7.” The major tech players have already witnessed big gains in 2023 from the artificial intelligence frenzy and their quarterly results could spark outsized impacts on the broader market.

Putting it in perspective: The five biggest companies in the S&P 500 – Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) – represent about a quarter of the benchmark index’s market cap (three of them will report this week). Many hope that bumper results and a significant jump in year-over-year numbers will put their hefty weightings to work, helping make up for other industries that might be going through an earnings slump. In fact, one of the only reasons that earnings expectations for the S&P 500 are forecast to be flat this quarter is because of the Big 5. Without the mega-cap tech group, earnings on average for S&P 500 companies would be down 5%.

Meta Platforms (META) will also report this week, while Apple (AAPL) is waiting until the beginning of November, followed by Nvidia (NVDA). Trading individual earnings can be difficult to predict, with perhaps some of the numbers already baked-in or resulting in sell-the-news events, so it’s more important to pay attention to the overall sector. This year’s returns of the tech majors have also been a big surprise based on the sentiment going into 2023, but the heavyweights have held their ground and then some.

What to watch: Will Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) see accelerated growth in Search and YouTube, as well as progress in the commercialization of Gen AI products? What about the user base and new offerings at Meta (META)? Will Personal Computing weigh on Microsoft (MSFT) and can Amazon (AMZN) reassure investors that AWS is still the cloud computing leader? Artificial intelligence will also be a buzzword on all of the earnings calls, but pay attention to margins given all the AI investment, R&D and IT spending. Take the WSB survey.

Merger Monday

Merger Monday rang in with two major multibillion-dollar deals. Chevron (CVX) will acquire Hess Corp. (HES) in a $53B all-stock deal to expand its DJ and Permian Basin operations. The news comes less than two weeks after Exxon Mobil (XOM) announced its $60B acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). The deal pushed Chevron’s stock 3% lower, while Hess rose over 2%. Separately, Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) will buy Telavant Holdings from Roivant Sciences (ROIV) and Pfizer (PFE) for $7.1B upfront. The deal includes the development and commercialization rights in the U.S. and Japan for RVT-3101, the new therapy that is being tested to treat inflammatory bowel disease. The news sent Roivant soaring 15% before the bell. (32 comments)

To the polls

The ruling Peronist coalition in Argentina led the general election on Sunday, smashing expectations and setting the stage for a polarized run-off vote next month. Argentinian traders are bracing for a stock market selloff on Monday, as Economy Minister Sergio Massa’s lead in the election dashed hopes for a win by a more market-friendly candidate – libertarian radical Javier Milei. Note that Argentina is headed for its sixth recession in a decade in the backdrop of triple-digit inflation and a currency (ARS:USD) that’s lost around 90% of its value in the past five years. SA analyst Calafia Beach Pundit said Milei’s plans to ditch the peso “is the only sensible thing to do, though it might prove tricky to implement.” (3 comments)

Negotiations resume

SAG-AFTRA, the labor union representing Hollywood actors, and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) will resume negotiations on Tuesday, nearly two weeks after talks broke down over actors’ demand for a cut of streaming services’ revenue. “As we mark the 100th day of our strike, company executives have asked us to return to the table,” SAG-AFTRA said. Hollywood actors have been on strike since July over demands for higher pay, better working conditions, and guardrails for AI use, among others. Writers in the industry had also been on strike, but it ended last month after the negotiating parties reached a deal. (7 comments)

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

What else is happening…

Stonepeak to buy shipping-container firm Textainer (TGH) for $50/share.

Japan to investigate Google (GOOG, GOOGL) over search dominance.

IEA: Global spending on power grids must double to meet climate goals.

Foxconn (OTCPK:FXCOF) faces tax investigation in China, stock falls 2%.

Midwest CO2 pipeline project canceled in blow to Biden climate plans.

Headcounts come into focus in banks’ Q3 earnings calls.

P10 (PX) appoints Goldman (GS) veteran Luke Sarsfield as CEO.

New titles drive 10% jump in U.S. videogame sales for September.

Alphabet, META ‘well positioned’ to benefit from digital ad growth.

Earnings week ahead: Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and more.


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