Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were very weak. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan suffered enormous losses; China, Hong Kong, India, Australia, Singapore and the Philippine also did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are down more than 1%. Futures in the States point towards gigantic gap down open for the cash market.
————— July Archives —————
The dollar is down big. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Take a bearing
August has begun with a bang, with the Dow ending the first session of the month down almost 500 points. Note that’s only a 1.2% decline (the Dow crossed 40K points for the first time in May), but the selloff yesterday also hit the S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.3%) and Russell 2000 (-3%, so much for the rotation). Volatility is making an appearance as markets try to size up the economic landscape, while the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) slid below 4.00% for the first time since February.
What happened? Things seemed to be celebratory on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jay Powell announced that a September rate cut was on the table, but that message took on a different tone as new economic data was published. Initial jobless claims advanced the most since August 2023, while the PMI and ISM manufacturing indexes signaled an economic contraction. The weak data is now triggering some worries that the Fed may fall behind the curve, with the U.S. becoming the last major central bank in the West to embark on an easing cycle.
That’s at least one of the narratives, which is even bringing back a word that hasn’t been heard for a while – “recession.” The other is that the soft landing is going according to schedule, but a healthy summer pullback or even a correction is due following stretched valuations, especially for megacaps and tech sectors like semiconductors. “The economy shows resilience with 2.8% GDP growth in the second quarter,” wrote SA Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller. “Most importantly, consumer spending rose 2.3% and was the largest contributor to growth. Despite some signs of fatigue, the consumer is alive and well.”
Next up: The July nonfarm payrolls report is due out at 8:30 AM ET as Fed policymakers shift more attention to the maximum employment part of the central bank’s mandate compared to inflation and wages. Economists are not expecting a huge shift in the jobs number from May (the consensus estimate is for 176K), but recently, revisions have been shifting downward. The employment rate is also expected to stay at 4.1%, but anything higher than that can trigger concerns, especially with the figure climbing from a low of 3.4% over the past year.
Latest earnings
It looks like tech is leading another selloff today following disappointing guidance that dragged shares of Intel (INTC) down 21% and Amazon (AMZN) 8% lower in early trading on Friday. Intel is also laying off 15% of its workforce and suspending its dividend to cut costs as the company struggles to keep up in the AI chip race. Meanwhile, Amazon warned of cautious consumer spending weighing on sales and expects to spend even more on AI, sparking concerns about the returns of those investments. A small bright spot was Apple (AAPL), which ticked up 0.6% AH as its results were not as bad as feared, even as iPhone sales continued to decline. (326 comments)
Election outcome
The U.S. has officially recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election, citing “overwhelming evidence” and rejecting the electoral authority’s declaration that President Nicolas Maduro won 51% of the vote. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken added that the National Electoral Council’s quick declaration came without “disaggregated data or any of the vote tally sheets.” Meanwhile, Venezuela’s opposition said it published more than 80% of receipts received from polling stations, which it claimed showed Gonzalez (whose team has since gone into hiding) winning two-thirds of the vote.
SA Sentiment
There have been many headlines in recent weeks coming out of the crypto sector, like the launch of spot ether ETFs and the first major-party presidential candidate to fully embrace the industry. Seeking Alpha polled over 1,000 subscribers in the run-up to the latest cycle in early June, and again in late July, with more investors seeing crypto as a store of value. The most significant change saw a nearly 10 percentage point increase from 15% to 24% for new holders of crypto in their portfolio, bolstered by new spot ETFs that were seen as the most popular form of crypto investment. See the other results here.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Motor Vehicle Sales
08:30 AM Employment Situation
10:00 AM Factory Orders
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
What else is happening…
NFL’s $4.7B verdict in Sunday Ticket case tossed out by judge.
Snap (SNAP) shares plunge 23% on light earnings guidance.
Coinbase in charts: Subscription revenue continues to grow.
Eli Lilly (LLY) CEO says weight loss drug shortage is ending.
FTC to investigate soaring grocery prices and retailer profits.
Roblox (RBLX) falls as CFO exit overshadows raised forecast.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire (BRK.B) sells more BofA (BAC) stock.
AB InBev (BUD) profit soars as key brands show momentum.
DoorDash (DASH) rallies on double-digit gains in revenue, orders.
Earnings Summary: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) results, outlook disappoint.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upsid. China, Taiwan, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines did well; Japan and Singapore were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Turkey is doing well, but France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, Israel and Sweden are weak. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Jetsons Law
Minnesota has become the second U.S. state where flying car regulations have gone into effect, following the lead of New Hampshire which passed similar legislation back in 2020. The new law will give private citizens the right to own “roadable aircraft,” granting drivers the ability to become pilots of the same vehicle. No more traffic in everyday transportation might come with a big price tag for now, but it’s still several decades before a regular family navigates life in the year 2062.
Orbit City: The so-called “Jetsons Law” allows airplane-to-car hybrids to register as motor vehicles, but instead of a traditional license plate, they will be permitted to use their tail number. Flying cars will also have to “take off and land from a suitable airfield,” meaning no descents onto roadways or public highways (barring an emergency). While taking to the sky, the dual-purpose vehicles will have to abide by all FAA rules, which will become more important as more states adopt similar legislation.
“I think we’re close to regulation at the federal level,” said Jim Dukhovny, CEO of flying car company Alef Aeronautics. “Healthy market competition is good for the industry. Governments are starting to realize the economic and environmental advantages of flying cars.” Doron Merdinger, CEO of a similar startup called Doroni Aerospace, also feels that it is “smart to get ahead of the curve and start planning how to integrate these vehicles into our daily lives.”
The big leagues: Traditional planemakers, like Airbus (OTCPK:EADSY) and Boeing (BA), as well as commercial carriers like American Airlines (AAL), Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), are pouring millions into flying taxis, eVTOL prototypes and transportation partnerships. Other air mobility firms with skin in the game include Archer Aviation (ACHR), Eve Air Mobility (EVEX), Joby Aviation (JOBY), Lilium (LILM) and Vertical Aerospace (EVTL). Interestingly, most carmakers are sitting this one out, instead focusing most of their R&D on self-driving and autonomous features, as well as electric and hybrid technology.
Time to celebrate
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed that an interest rate cut “could be on the table as soon as September” if inflation and jobs continue to improve. Translation: Keep an eye on the incoming data. The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut also climbed after the comments, underscoring the market’s confidence that the monetary policy easing cycle was imminent. Powell’s shift in tone was enough for the Nasdaq (COMP:IND) and S&P 500 (SP500) to see their best day in over five months, while Treasury yields moved lower as traders snapped up bonds. (80 comments)
Tech is back
Following the rally, Meta (META) soared 7.2% AH to $509/share after its Q2 results easily beat expectations. More importantly, the tech giant reassured investors about underlying growth, especially in its core advertising business, despite massive spending on artificial intelligence. A major area of focus is “figuring out the right level of infra capacity to support training more and more advanced [AI] models,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on an earnings call. “At this point, I’d rather risk building capacity before it is needed rather than too late, given the long lead times for spinning up new infra projects.” (21 comments)
Oil on watch
U.S. crude futures (CL1:COM) jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran. It came just hours after Israel struck a senior Hezbollah military leader in Beirut, ratcheting up fears of a regional war across the Middle East. Lending additional support for oil prices, U.S. crude stockpiles posted their fifth straight weekly decline, marking the longest string of crude drawdowns since a seven-week streak at the end of 2021. Crude still tallied losses in July, with WTI and Brent falling 4.4% and 6.6%, respectively. (21 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Challenger Job Cut Report
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Final
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
What else is happening…
Union check: UAW endorses Kamala Harris for president.
Nvidia (NVDA) re-added to Morgan Stanley’s top picks list.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square USA (PSUS) drops IPO plan.
23andMe (ME) CEO offers to take the company private.
Boeing (BA) names Kelly Ortberg as next chief executive.
Delta Air (DAL) CEO sees $500M hit from global IT outage.
AI drive-thru: Taco Bell (YUM) expands initiative across U.S.
UBER to bring BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) EVs in global markets.
Carvana (CVNA) rallies on unexpected profit, upbeat outlook.
Russell 2000 rise: Top 5 best, worst performers during July rally.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy FOMC Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted solid gains. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia and Thailand rallied more than 1%. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Greece, South Africa, Norway, the Netherlands and Portugal are up more than 1%; Spain is down 1%. Futures in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Changing tunes
For about a year, the refrain has remained the same: Don’t expect Federal Reserve policymakers to adjust their benchmark interest rate when they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. This may be the last time that chorus is heard, with today’s gathering likely to be the final meeting of the current cycle that the FOMC leaves rates on hold. A plurality of Wall Street Breakfast subscribers see the central bank cutting rates for the first time in September, compared to any of the other coming meetings or no policy changes for 2024.
Snapshot: If there’s one big character trait of Fed Chair Jay Powell, it’s that he doesn’t like to surprise. Unlike at today’s press conference, he’s only likely to telegraph his views in the coming weeks after feeling fully comfortable with the economic data (like CPI, PCE, non-farm payrolls, etc.). “We believe Powell will wait until Jackson Hole end August to deliver the explicit September cut signal,” Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha wrote in a research note. “The Fed leadership is proceeding methodically to build the case for a cut and internal consensus as to the game plan for subsequent moves.”
While Q2 GDP came in stronger than expected last week, labor market trends will likely remain key. As Powell emphasized in recent comments, the risks to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability (i.e., 2% inflation) and maximum employment are coming into better balance. Some even think the Fed Chair will say that the two sides are now balanced, which is a big change from the start of the year (when the risks were mainly focused on price stability vs. labor). Easing labor market conditions also means there’s a reduced chance of large wage hikes that can re-ignite inflation.
Commentary: SA analyst Damir Tokic writes that if the Fed doesn’t signal for a rate cut in September, “the market will be left disappointed” and “the reaction could be negative.” David Lerner, SA Investing Group Leader of Group Mind Investing, even brings up the potential for a rare inter-meeting rate cut. “Cutting rates in August is less disruptive politically and could benefit the economy, particularly in the housing market,” he explains, while also discussing a contrarian view centered around a decrease of 50 basis points. (4 comments)
Central bank divergence
While the Fed is inching toward a rate cut cycle, the Bank of Japan is moving in the opposite direction. Overnight, the BOJ raised its key short-term interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since December 2008, and announced plans to halve its bond purchases until March 2026 to ensure market stability. The moves underscored efforts to normalize monetary policy after years of its negative interest rate policy that ended in March. While economists expect one more rate hike this year, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said this depends on whether the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts.
The AI landscape
Speaking of divergence, another round was seen in the latest earnings influx on Tuesday. Microsoft’s (MSFT) AI-fueled cloud division grew less than expected despite the tech giant beating revenue and EPS estimates. While there was a lot of talk about the AI product suite, there were comments highlighting “constrained AI capacity” and assets that “will be monetized over 15 years and beyond,” prompting shares to fall 2.8% AH. All that big capex spending will still boost data center suppliers, and indeed those benefits were on display in other earnings during the post-market session. AMD (AMD) soared 7.7% AH following its impressive quarterly numbers, and the results even boosted Nvidia (NVDA) and pushed up Nasdaq 100 futures in the premarket trading. (11 comments)
No more time
U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has written to CEOs of the top 10 U.S. airlines to ensure refunds for canceled or delayed flights in accordance with a law passed in May. The FAA Reauthorization Act “did not provide for extensions or delays and we will be taking all appropriate steps to enforce these provisions,” he affirmed, stressing the importance of the law in the wake of the global tech outage this month and the busy summer travel season. Airlines for America, a trade group representing carriers including American Airlines (AAL) and Delta Air (DAL), had sought more time to thoroughly test tech solutions required for complying with the new law. (3 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 AM ADP Jobs Report
08:30 AM Treasury Refunding Announcement
08:30 AM Employment Cost Index
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Fed Chair Press Conference
03:00 PM Farm Prices
What else is happening…
Starbucks (SBUX) rallies amid new partnerships, green shoots in U.S.
Josh Shapiro against Nippon deal for U.S. Steel (X) in current form.
Amazon (AMZN) eyes cutting reliance on postal service in rural U.S.
U.S. said to equip F-16s sent to Ukraine with advanced weapons.
Hamas leader killed in Tehran after strike on Hezbollah commander.
PayPal (PYPL) boosts earnings, buyback guidance after Q2 beat.
Procter & Gamble (PG) falls after organic sales miss expectations.
Air New Zealand becomes first major airline to pull emission goals.
DOJ accuses Norfolk Southern (NSC) of delaying passenger service.
Report: Intel (INTC) to eliminate thousands of jobs in cost-cutting effort.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. New Zealand did well, but Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently lean to the upside. Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy and Austria are leading; Turkey, Portugal, Israel and Saudi Arabia are weak. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The AI roadmap
The next big test for the markets comes this week as Big Tech reports Q2 results. OpenAI-backer Microsoft (MSFT) is on tap after today’s closing bell, while Meta (META) will publish quarterly numbers tomorrow, followed by Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday. As in past quarters, the group of Mag7 stocks is estimated to account for the majority of earnings for the entire S&P 500 Index, but this time around, the accompanying commentary should be more of an important indicator of sentiment due to the recent rotation.
Early innings: Optimism over AI has undoubtedly been one of the biggest drivers that has propelled market indices to continuous record highs. The biggest tech players in the industry are flush with cash, so it makes sense to deploy capital to areas they see as the next engine for growth. Their core businesses are also doing extremely well, so it makes sense to keep one eye on the long term and build out the infrastructure necessary for the anticipated revolution.
However… Investors also now want to hear how all that spending will lead to profits, and understand artificial intelligence use cases and productivity models. The Big Tech giants don’t necessarily have to show off revenues related to AI just yet, but painting that picture should be enough to keep shareholders in gear until that materializes. Successful conference calls and earnings commentary should separate capex spending from actual operating results, while outlining the need to go big at first and following up with more cost discipline (similar to the internet buildout in the 1990s and the cloud buildout that followed).
Cases in point: A stock can immediately benefit when following that prescription, especially for tech leaders that clearly outline their vision. A great example of this happened last month at WWDC 2024, when Apple (AAPL) portrayed how its new suite of products would lead to a consumer AI revolution, with the stock soaring by 13% since the conference. Contrast that to Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), whose shares fell 7% over the past week following an earnings call that largely steered clear of AI specifics and centered more on its legacy businesses (Search, Ads, YouTube, Cloud, etc.).
Robotaxi jolts
Tesla (TSLA) advanced nearly 6% on Monday after being named a top auto pick at Morgan Stanley amid powerful emerging drivers of firm value. Not everyone is on board. Tesla’s updated version of its autonomous driving software is impressive, but does not solve autonomy, Truist Securities wrote after a recent test drive. “The shortcomings that we observed make it challenging to imagine what Tesla will reveal in its RoboTaxi event in October,” noted analyst William Stein, detailing a few times he had to intervene to avoid collisions. (141 comments)
Higher and higher
“The borrowing just keeps marching along, reckless and unyielding,” said Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, as the U.S. national debt crossed $35T for the first time. Recall that the deficit hit $34T earlier this year and passed $33T just three months before that. The tide of red ink is swelling at a much faster pace than expected amid increased interest costs and mandatory spending on federal programs. The Congressional Budget Office last month even projected that the national debt would rise to a record 122% of GDP in 2034. (10 comments)
Strategic reserve
The Biden administration is buying over 40M barrels of oil to replenish the U.S. emergency stockpile, but needs more money from Congress for additional purchases. Following a record drawdown to tame crude prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now holds 375M barrels, compared to 600M barrels at the start of 2022. While the government plans to continue SPR purchases into next year, it only has around $1.2B left to spend in its oil purchase account (enough for about 15M barrels). “We would like to, of course, do more than that,” said Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk. “But we do need additional funds.” (4 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
FOMC meeting begins
09:00 AM S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
09:00 AM FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Broader look at current crypto sentiment.
McDonald’s (MCD) shares gain as $5 Meal Deal sees traction.
Soaring rents: Starbucks closes iconic Greenwich Village store.
Delta (DAL) hires law firm to seek damages for global tech outage.
Abbott (ABT) may settle baby formula cases for up to $300M.
RSV vaccine market to decline 64% following CDC decision.
Most American pharma companies don’t pay any income tax.
Uranium contracts are soaring on uncertain supply, power demand.
BHP, Lundin to buy copper miner Filo (OTCQX:FLMMF) for $3B.
Biden unveils SCOTUS plan: Ethics code, immunity and term limits.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia and Malaysia did well; China and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. The UK, Denmark, the UAE, Finland, Norway, Portugal and Sweden are up; Turkey is down. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Crypto First
In a big boost to the crypto community, former President Donald Trump made an appearance at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville over the weekend. Note that it is election season, when contenders shore up needed support from swathes of the population, but Trump also described his newfound love from a strategic and geopolitical standpoint. “If we don’t embrace it [crypto and bitcoin technology], China and others are going to be doing it. My vision is for an America that dominates the future.”
Backdrop: Trump wasn’t always that friendly to bitcoin and was far from being an advocate. During his time in office, he said cryptos were a disaster waiting to happen and whose value was based on thin air, while connecting the digital assets to crime-riddled scams and threats to the U.S. dollar. Things started to change after the launch of his NFT collections, and Trump became the first major-party presidential candidate to start accepting crypto campaign contributions in May. There was also an opening to distinguish his platform from the current administration, which has been largely seen as taking an unfriendly stance toward the cryptocurrency industry.
“I am laying out my plan to ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world,” Trump declared at the event featuring Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy), Cathie Wood (Ark Invest) and the Winklevoss twins (Gemini). “There’s never been anything like it, and most people have no idea what the hell it is. Bitcoin is not just a marvel of technology, as you know; it’s a miracle of cooperation and human achievement. Bitcoin stands for freedom, sovereignty and independence from government coercion and control. If crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted and made in the USA.”
Taking action: There were several promises made at the conference, including a pledge to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and appointing a presidential advisory council to issue regulatory clarity that will let the crypto industry “thrive.” Other commitments included shutting down Operation Choke Point 2.0, which refers to the extensive procedures imposed on crypto businesses, as well as eliminating “unclear” or “tough” laws that stifle the sector. He also vowed to create a strategic national bitcoin stockpile, fight CBDCs, defend the right to self-custody, and institute the “responsible expansion of stablecoins to extend the dominance of the U.S. dollar to new frontiers.” Take the WSB survey.
Treasury vs. Fed
By modifying the maturity profile of its debt issuance, the Treasury Department is steering financial conditions and, by extension, the broader economy. That can encroach on the fundamental roles held by the Federal Reserve, according to a new study by Hudson Bay Capital, due to outsized issuances of Treasury bills meddling with the central bank’s ability to contain inflation. The novel tool – dubbed “activist Treasury issuance” – has been a “major market driver over the past year” and is also expected to “continue to play a significant role in the year ahead.” (43 comments)
Next CEO?
Former Rockwell Collins chief Kelly Ortberg is reportedly being considered for the CEO role at Boeing (BA) to succeed Dave Calhoun. The latter will step down by the end of the year amid operational challenges and safety concerns. Ortberg, an aerospace veteran, served as an advisor to RTX’s (RTX) CEO, and led Rockwell Collins and its successor entities for about eight years as it went through mergers and restructuring. Other potential candidates for the top job at Boeing include insiders Stephanie Pope and Steve Mollenkopf, as well as Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) CEO Pat Shanahan. (1 comment)
Over in Caracas
Venezuela is set for more political turmoil as both the ruling party and the opposition claimed victory in the latest presidential election. It comes amid a crippling economic crisis and sanctions that have led to millions of people leaving the country in recent years. “We have serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. “It’s critical that election officials immediately share information with the opposition and electoral observers without delay and that the electoral authorities publish detailed tabulation of votes.” (2 comments)
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
What else is happening…
Paris Olympics expected to provide sportsbooks with a major boost.
Yellen: $3T needed yearly for shift to low-carbon global economy.
SA Asks: Which chip stocks are undervalued right now?
Deadpool & Wolverine sets box-office record for R-rated debut.
Forgery check: Boeing (BA) asks suppliers for titanium paper trail.
Six banks agree to settle European bond price rigging charges.
Mideast escalates: Hezbollah rocket hits soccer field in Golan Heights.
U.S. starts first military command in Tokyo to oppose China.
Mitsubishi to join Honda-Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) EV alliance.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square closed-end fund faces IPO delay.
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