Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines did well; China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Norway, Spain, Portugal and Austria are up; Denmark, Poland, Greece, Switzerland and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Market is Well Supported Under the Hood —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds lean up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Next appointment
After dropping off the campaign trail to join Team Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has now been selected by the president-elect to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. The agency is the country’s top health bureau, overseeing the Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. With a background in environmentalism, Kennedy is a Big Pharma skeptic and has promised to “end the corruption at the federal agencies.”
MAHA: “He’s going to help ‘Make America Healthy Again,'” Trump declared in a victory speech on election night. “He wants to do some things and we’re going to let him go to it.” RFK’s views on health and medicine really span the spectrum, and he will likely be given more of a free hand under the new administration to “go wild on health.” However, one area that Trump has said would be off-limits is fossil fuels, referencing that again recently by saying, “Bobby, leave the oil to me.”
RFK’s first priority after taking the health helm will be to declare a national emergency over the “chronic disease epidemic.” That’ll include conditions like obesity, diabetes and autism, as well as reducing chemicals, additives and processed ingredients in food. Some of his other comments and positions have been more controversial, like recommending fluoride be removed from public water supplies, “sexual dysphoria” as a result of herbicides, damaging effects stemming from Wi-Fi, and a COVID pandemic that may have been engineered to target specific ethnicities.
Under the microscope: Markets have been focused on RFK’s views of immunizations, sending down shares of vaccine makers like BioNTech (BNTX) -7% and Novavax (NVAX) -7% following news of his HHS appointment. While RFK maintains he is “fully compliant with the vaccine schedule myself, except for COVID,” he has weighed into the topic with a heavy dose of skepticism. RFK has promised not to “take away anybody’s vaccines,” but his past comments suggesting links to autism, dangerous ingredients, safety risks, and efficacy of certain shots has the sector on watch. On the flip side, he has lambasted the FDA’s “aggressive suppression of psychedelics,” sending stocks like Atai Life Sciences (ATAI) +14%, Incannex Healthcare (IXHL) +5%, and Compass Pathways (CMPS) +4%, up in early trading on Friday.
What else is happening…
Fed not in a ‘hurry’ to lower interest rates – Jerome Powell.
Credit card debt hits a record $1.17T in Q3 – New York Fed.
Palantir (PLTR) to transfer stock exchange listing to Nasdaq.
Q3 trades by Buffett’s Berkshire: New stake in Domino’s (DPZ).
Disney’s (DIS) guidance drives best post-earnings gain in years.
Satirical news outlet The Onion wins bid for Alex Jones’ InfoWars.
These automakers will likely benefit if EV tax credit is pulled.
Commercial space licenses hit record despite red tape critics.
IEA raises 2024 oil demand forecast, sees surplus in 2025.
Biden, Xi to meet for the last time before Trump takes office.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Retail Sales
08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
08:30 AM Import/Export Prices
09:00 AM Fed’s Collins Speech
09:15 AM Industrial Production
10:00 AM Business Inventories
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
01:15 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
—————
Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. Singapore did well, but Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing very well. The UK, Denmark, France, Turkey, Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are up; Poland, Israel and Saudi Arabia are down. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Market is Well Supported Under the Hood —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Falling short
Led by the U.S. and the EU, the collective West has imposed thousands of sanctions against Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. It has led Russia to become the most sanctioned country in the world, and while that has caused considerable damage to parts of its economy, it has overall been resilient, with GDP growth expanding this past quarter by 3.1% Y/Y. The restrictions cover thousands of individuals and regime-linked people, but the ones that make headlines have been leveled against key entities or sectors, or roping off Russia from supply chains and financial systems.
Clashing with reality: There had been expectations that sanctions would expose key vulnerabilities in the Russian economy, but it has proven hard for a country that is self-reliant on its food and energy. Stopping the outflow of capital has also boosted domestic investment and prompted the nation to expand its circle of friends, especially with the world’s factory and economic powerhouse – China. Russia has additionally found big consumers to whom it can export commodities like oil, such as India, which is key for a country that has abundant natural resources.
Don’t forget the shadow economy, which envelops entire industries and sectors. Western goods and replacement parts have been flowing into Russia from third countries, as documented by the exponential increases in imports to Moscow’s immediate neighbors. Add to that smuggling routes, transit points, dark fleets, the reflagging of tankers, doctored documents and money laundering, which can all keep goods and trade flowing, especially through third-party markets.
The latest: One of the earliest threats leveled against Russia in the early days of the war was aimed at severing its financial ties, including the SWIFT payment system. However, alternatives have surfaced with a plan towards de-dollarization, as well as boosting cooperation among the BRICS economic organization and the New Development Bank to counter Western institutions. This week, Russia and Iran even formally linked their Mir and Shetab banking systems, which will make it easier to facilitate trade and conduct transactions.
What else is happening…
Reaction Roundup: SA analysts, experts weigh in on CPI report.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) blasts past $90K as Trump-fueled rally rages on.
Fed’s Kashkari, once a bitcoin skeptic, will now ‘have an open mind.’
Buy Now, Pay Later: Klarna (KLAR) confidentially files for U.S. IPO.
Greenlight’s Einhorn pitches an industrial stock as a new long.
Amazon (AMZN) rolls out new ‘Haul’ store to rival Temu, Shein.
7-Eleven considers going private to fend off foreign takeover.
Frontier (FYBR) gains as investors clear deal with Verizon (VZ).
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) continues to slide after delaying 10-Q.
Republicans secure government trifecta after retaining House majority.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM Fed’s Kugler Speech
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
09:00 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
03:00 PM Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:45 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
—————
Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. China did well, but Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Turkey and Hungary are up; Poland, Germany, Greece, Austria, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are down. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market, thanks to the latest CPI reading.
————— BLOG: This Might be the Next Big Move for Bitcoin —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up; Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Software-defined vehicles
The numbers don’t lie. Serious difficulties with finances and software architecture are pairing together one of Europe’s storied carmakers and a loss-making EV startup across the pond. Their new joint venture will be called “Rivian and Volkswagen Group Technologies” and will strive to keep both groups competitive in a new era for the auto world. That includes fending off threats from dominant rivals like Tesla (TSLA), as well as Chinese competitors that are driving into markets across the globe.
New shocks: Rivian (RIVN) is losing over $1B per quarter, or $30K-$40K on each truck it sells, with current volumes not enough to sustain its spend rate. Unless it acted quickly, bankruptcy could have been in the cards, especially given high borrowing costs and trends pointing to an EV slowdown. Meanwhile, Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) is facing challenges of its own, including in-house innovation and breaking into the “software-defined vehicle” market. Problems with its software subsidiary called CARIAD (Car, I Am Digital) have delayed multiple car launches from brands like Audi and Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY), which are crucial for VW due to their high profit margins.
The issues previously led to a shakeup at Volkswagen, leading to the ouster of CEO Herbert Diess. He was replaced with Porsche brand leader Oliver Blume, who overhauled CARIAD’s leadership last year with a new chief software officer from Rivian. It also triggered a rethink of how VW should approach underlying vehicle architecture. Eventually, the carmaker turned to an industry startup (i.e. Rivian) that was having success with its design and ownership of its electronics on board, but needed a cash lifeline and favorable supply chain pricing to grow in “meaningful scale.”
In-house control: Volkswagen now plans to invest $5.8B in Rivian and the joint venture by 2027, up from an earlier commitment of $5B outlined in June. The funding will be tied to specific milestones, including successes and combinations in software, hardware, data, and network architecture. It will also give VW better access to the North American truck market, and might even lead to a bigger investment or a total acquisition in the future, especially if its new Scout Motors bet doesn’t pay off.
Long way to go? In premarket movement, Rivian (RIVN) shares are up 14.7% to $12.13. The EV stock still trades well below its $78 IPO pricing level in 2021 and its all-time closing high of $172.01.
What else is happening…
CPI preview: Pace of inflation expected to hold steady in October.
Musk, Ramaswamy to lead Trump’s government efficiency efforts.
Restaurant breakout: CAVA soars as comparable sales sizzle again.
Trump should keep U.S. in Paris climate deal – Exxon (XOM) CEO.
SoftBank to build supercomputer with Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell.
OpenAI co-founder Brockman returns to startup after hiatus.
Amazon’s Zoox begins testing robotaxis in San Fran and Vegas.
Mexico signals retaliation if Trump imposes 25% tariffs.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) soars to new high on strong earnings, guidance.
Honeywell (HON) jumps as Elliott takes $5B stake, pushes for breakup.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
09:45 AM Fed’s Logan Speech
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
01:00 PM Fed’s Musalem Speech
01:30 PM Fed’s Schmid Speech
02:00 PM Treasury Statement
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
—————
Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. New Zealand and Indonesia did well, but China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Israel is doing well, but the UK, Denmark, France, Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— Podcast with StockMarket TV: Learning to Grind —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is flat; silver is up; Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Going green
The latest round of U.N. climate talks, known as COP29, is getting underway this week in Azerbaijan. Ironically, the country is one of the top ten most fossil fuel-dependent economies in the world, with oil and gas making up 90% of its export revenue and 60% of its finances. Even more ironically, the largest share of Azerbaijani fossil fuel exports goes to the European Union via pipelines that run to Greece, Albania and Italy (Southern Gas Corridor), while those levels have been increasing in recent years due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Quote: “We are on a road to ruin,” COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said in his opening remarks. “These are not future problems – climate change is already here. The top priority is to agree to fair and ambitious ‘New Collective Quantified Goals’ on climate finance.” In line with those objectives, progress was made on Article 6 of the 2015 Paris Agreement. Delegates approved new standards for a global carbon market that would allow richer countries to buy the emissions of poorer countries by investing in their clean energy projects or carbon-capturing forests.
However, despite commitments made in the past, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to reach record highs, while increasing temperatures, a loss of biodiversity and extreme weather events are said to be growing in intensity. Not helping the situation are questions of fairness and trust, as well as accountability and enforcement mechanisms. Notable world leaders were also absent from the summit, including President Biden and China’s Xi Jinping, along with the heads of India, Brazil, France, Germany and the European Union.
Investing angle: During his last term in office, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and the President-elect is likely to do so again. Interestingly, oil and gas stocks have performed much better under Biden than Trump, while clean energy shares boomed under the latter. The movement can highlight the actual dynamics of the economy, along with supply/demand levels, profits and prices. In fact, U.S. oil production hit new records for much of the past four years despite a policy platform by the Biden administration to transition away from fossil fuels and towards green energy. (5 comments)
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: See the latest crypto trends and forecasts.
To the moon! Bitcoin nears $90,000, spot ETFs see record inflows.
Boeing (BA) appoints new head of quality for commercial planes.
23andMe (ME) cuts workforce by 40%, ends therapeutics programs.
Hard landing: Spirit Airlines (SAVE) flight struck by gunfire in Haiti.
Gold sinks the most in over three years as Trump win roils markets.
Needham: CHIPS Act likely safe as White House changes hands.
Chipotle (CMG) names interim chief Boatwright as new CEO.
Tesla (TSLA) extends post-election rally, Wedbush boosts price target.
North Korea and Russia ratify defense treaty after troops sent to Kursk.
Today’s Economic Calendar
06:00 AM NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
02:00 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
05:00 PM Fed’s Harker Speech
—————
Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. China did well, but Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines posted losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. The UK, Denmark, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Sweden are all participating. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— Podcast with StockMarket TV: Learning to Grind —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up big.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Crypto First
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) topped the $80,000 level over the weekend, becoming one of the most prominent “Trump trades” in the aftermath of the 2024 election. Back on the campaign trail, now President-elect Donald Trump jumped on the crypto bandwagon, with promises to create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, fight CBDCs, and defend the right to self-custody. However, the biggest catalyst seems to be his commitment to a favorable regulatory environment and vowing to eliminate “unclear” or “tough” laws that stifle the sector.
Next steps: Plans are underway to appoint a presidential advisory council to let the crypto industry “thrive,” and while there might be some legal tussling, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler may soon find himself out of the position (along with Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown). Trump’s sweep in the seven battleground states and the coming “red wave” that’s set to descend on Capitol Hill will mean that plans can be carried out, with many pro-crypto lawmakers soon to be found in the halls of Congress. The bullish sentiment has even propelled altcoins Cardano (ADA-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD), as well as meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) and Shiba Inu (SHIB-USD), in a broad boost to the entire crypto sector.
It’ll all translate into better policy certainty, especially for Tier-1 banks, which will be more inclined to integrate crypto services and platforms into their businesses. That should also help more institutional investors come aboard, which can push prices even further via direct buying and a broader range of crypto ETFs. Remember, volatility is always going to be present in the cryptosphere, but history has shown the need for diamond hands to really win in the asset class.
Flashback: Trump wasn’t always that friendly to Bitcoin and was far from being an advocate. During his first term in office, he said crypto value was based on thin air, while connecting the digital assets to crime-riddled scams and threats to the U.S. dollar. Fast forward to the campaign cycle, and Trump was able to distinguish himself from the “anti-crypto crusade of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.” At the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in July, he laid out a plan to “ensure that the United States will be the crypto capital of the planet and bitcoin superpower of the world.”
What else is happening…
U.S. orders TSMC (TSM) to stop some chip shipments to China.
Are deportations likely to cause big disruptions for U.S. business?
TSLA at $1T: Bigger than next ten biggest auto stocks combined.
Musk joined call between Trump and Ukraine’s Zelenskyy – Axios.
Firefox turns 20: Can Mozilla return to its previous heights?
DOJ is investigating possible price-fixing in the PVC market.
Nvidia (NVDA) dominates the AI accelerator market. Anyone else?
Russia mulls mega oil merger between Rosneft, Gazprom & Lukoil.
Taiwan aims for massive defense contract of American weapons.
Biden and Trump to meet at the White House on Wednesday.
Today’s Economic Calendar
No events scheduled
—————