Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were an odd mix, with both big winners and big losers. Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia posted big gains, but China, Hong Kong and the Philippines posted big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly doing well. The UK, Denmark, Poland, Turkey, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Portugal are leading. Index futures in the States point to a slight down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Golden age of crypto
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is within a whisker of touching the $100,000 threshold, in a development that has shocked Wall Street’s old guard, but has not surprised the most dedicated HODLers. It’s an investing moment to appreciate, no matter what side one takes in the crypto debate, and will surely be one of the topics discussed around tables this Thanksgiving.
Crypto catalysts: It’s not only Bitcoin. The crypto market as a whole has grown from about $2.5T to a $3.5T capitalization since Donald Trump’s election win on Nov. 5. Trump has committed to fostering a favorable crypto environment and vowed to eliminate “tough” laws that stifle the industry, while promising to fight CBDCs and create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. In yet another win for crypto bulls, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler just announced his coming resignation, building on the ouster of Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who was no friend of the sector as Chair of the Senate Banking Committee.
That’s not all. Crypto backer and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick has been nominated as Commerce Secretary, while reports suggest that Trump Media (DJT) is in talks to buy crypto trading platform Bakkt (BKKT). There has also been heavy buying from major Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy (MSTR), as well as the debut of options on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds like the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). It has all helped more institutional and retail investors come aboard the crypto ship, pushing up prices via direct buying and a broader range of ETFs.
Crypto First: How much does politics play into crypto markets? Whether and how movement is correlated is always open to debate, with many investors (and voters) touting market performance under different administrations. Some may be surprised that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is up a whopping 350% from the time Biden got elected in 2020 until the vote in 2024. Here’s the level Bitcoin would have to reach under Trump’s second term to match that return (it may also come as a surprise how much Bitcoin advanced during Trump’s first term, when he was far from being a crypto advocate). See the full chart on Seeking Alpha.
What else is happening…
SA Sentiment: Should the U.S. create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve?
MicroStrategy (MSTR) sinks after Citron shorts ‘overheated’ stock.
OpenAI mulls releasing web browser to challenge Google (GOOGL).
Retail cheer: Gap (GAP) soars as holiday season starts strong.
DirecTV scraps Dish (SATS) acquisition on debt swap deadlock.
India’s Adani Group plunges 20% after U.S. bribery, fraud indictments.
PepsiCo (PEP) to acquire full ownership of two successful brands.
Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt files for bankruptcy in U.S.
Trump picks Pam Bondi as attorney general after Gaetz withdraws.
Will ‘Glicked’ rival Barbenheimer? Maybe not, but watch these stocks.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
06:15 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly down.Japan, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and little changed. Poland, Turkey, Norway and Greece are up; Denmark and the UAE are down. Index futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Down Under
Australia is taking aim at the dangers social media poses for kids, introducing legislation that would ban children younger than 16 from accessing platforms like TikTok (BDNCE), Facebook and Instagram (META), Snapchat (SNAP), Reddit (RDDT) and X. The law, which is expected to be passed by the end of the year, will make platforms responsible for not taking “reasonable steps” in preventing kids from holding social media accounts. Any “systematic failures” can result in fines of up to A$50M ($32.5M), and exemptions would not be granted for pre-existing accounts or cases of parental consent.
Quote: “This bill seeks to set a new normative value in society,” Australia Communications Minister Michelle Rowland told Parliament. “There is wide acknowledgement that something must be done in the immediate term to help prevent young teens and children from being exposed to streams of content unfiltered and infinite.”
Some areas won’t fall under the new restrictions, like online gaming platforms and standalone messaging services like WhatsApp and Messenger. While risks exist there too and users could still be exposed to harmful material, “they do not face the same algorithmic curation of content and psychological manipulation to encourage near-endless engagement.” The ban also excludes YouTube (GOOGL), which is widely used in schools and has already rolled out safeguards for children.
How will it work? The Australian government is trialing an age verification system to determine how best to enforce the social media ban, along with a “digital duty of care” by providers. Under consideration are biometrics and government identification, as well as other technologies like age inference and estimation. “We know some kids will find workarounds, but we’re sending a message to social media companies to clean up their act,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declared, stating that it was a “landmark reform.” Will it happen in the U.S.?
What else is happening…
Nvidia (NVDA) reports guidance: Wall Street wanted a touch higher.
Boeing (BA) can’t afford another mistake, CEO tells employees.
Comcast (CMCSA) to spin off NBCUniversal cable TV channels.
Holiday blues: Retail sector jolted by update from Target (TGT).
Archegos founder Bill Hwang sentenced to 18 years in prison.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) monopoly: DOJ is seeking a spinoff.
Biden administration moves to cancel billions in Ukraine debt.
Musk’s Neuralink cleared for first international brain chip trial.
COP29: OPEC Secretary General declares oil a ‘gift of God.’
American Airlines (AAL) rolls out software to call out gate lice.
Bitcoin tops the $97,000 level: A closer look at financial conditions.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Philly Fed Mfg Index
08:45 AM Fed’s Hammack Speech
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Quarterly Services Survey
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
12:25 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
12:30 PM Fed’s Schmid Speech
01:00 PM Results of $17B, 10-Year TIPS Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:40 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. China and the Philippines did well; Japan, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. Denmark, Poland, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary and the Czech Republic are leading. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
It’s showtime!
The grand finale of earnings season is here, with a lot riding on Nvidia’s (NVDA) Q3 results after the bell. Expect impressive numbers due to explosive AI and data center demand, though the level of growth and guidance should be of more importance to the Nvidia story. Margins are also on watch as the company ramps up its Blackwell GPUs, as well as whether overheating issues related to the coveted processors are real or fake news. Note that options trading should lead to big price swings no matter what is said or reported, so zooming out to see the overall picture may be necessary instead of hurrah post-earnings.
Up, up and away: Nvidia really took off following the release of ChatGPT in late 2022, which brought on the “Generative AI” revolution. The market darling tripled in 2023, and while there were some initial worries whether there could be an AI bubble, Seeking Alpha subscribers were correct in their assessment as things kept rolling. Nvidia tripled in price again in 2024, showing the staying power of the AI rally.
Putting it in perspective, an investor who bought $10,000 worth of Nvidia (NVDA) in January 2022 would be sitting on over $100,000 worth of shares today. For all the recent rage enveloping the crypto world, a comparable investment in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) at the start of 2022 would only be worth $20,000 today. While one can play around with positions and time frames, the movement conveys how strong of a force Nvidia has been for the markets and its status as one of the heaviest lifters of the S&P 500.
Commentary: SA analysts have weighed in ahead of the earnings, including an article from Millennial Dividends on how large Nvidia can grow realistically and some technical analysis from Michael James McDonald. There have additionally been some bullish notes from the Street, including “smooth Blackwell progress” at Wells Fargo and a price target boost at Truist and Stifel. Don’t forget to also explore the latest Nvidia ratings, estimates, financials, transcripts, filings, charts, and virtual analyst reports (new feature) on Seeking Alpha.
What else is happening…
More cord cutting? Comcast (CMCSA) set to spin off cable TV channels.
Walmart (WMT) hits new high with outperformance expected to continue.
Trump picks Cantor Fitzgerald’s Lutnick to lead Commerce Department.
Intuit, H&R Block (HRB) sink as Musk’s DOGE eyes free tax-filing app.
EV struggles: Stellantis (STLA) delays Ram electric pickup truck.
Fresh highs for Vertiv (VRT) after outlining strong growth trajectory.
Delta Air Lines (DAL), Shake Shack (SHAK) beef up in-flight meals.
SpaceX launches giant Starship rocket, but aborts booster catch.
JPMorgan’s Analyst Focus List: Growth, income, value, short ideas.
U.S. clears land mines for Ukraine as Kyiv strikes Russia with ATACMS.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM Fed’s Barr Speech
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
11:00 AM Fed’s Cook Speech
12:15 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
01:00 PM Results of $16B, 20-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
04:00 PM Fed’s Collins Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines led the way. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are down more than 1%. Index futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is flat. Oil is unchanged; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Seismic shift
AI models are only as good as the data that powers them. That’s sparked somewhat of a “content rush” over the past year as tech companies look to avoid copyright infringement by acquiring material from online publishers. High-quality content is the key here, so those with better and more valuable data are able to command higher price tags.
Backdrop: In the early innings of the AI revolution, firms banded together to stave off any threats to their bottom line. Hollywood went on strike in part over fear that the industry might lose or share revenue with machines, while news and media firms started talks to establish a united front against Big Tech over content scraping. That hasn’t stopped the transformation of the media sector, but what companies did realize is that they could obtain a lucrative revenue stream in the new era of monetization, while others worried about what it might mean for their subscription-based models.
Meanwhile, tech giants that wield tremendous power over distribution and visibility are continuing to ink AI content deals with big and small outlets alike. Have you recently noticed more Reddit (RDDT) results when conducting a search on Google (GOOGL)? A $60M deal with the publisher is behind that one. Other seismic content agreements have also been reached, such as OpenAI’s $250M deal with News Corp. (NWS) that gave it access to The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and MarketWatch. Others are smaller in size, like OpenAI’s $16M deal with Investopedia-owner Dotdash Meredith (IAC), and reports suggest that even smaller publishers are being offered less in the range of $1M-$5M per year.
Looking ahead: There are still many unanswered questions about who will own or be held responsible for AI-generated content. Is it the company that owns the algorithm? The media outlet(s) whose data helped produce the article? The reader or subscriber who entered the query? The public domain? New legal frameworks will have to be hashed out for industry, with notable past events like the ethical revolt at OpenAI and the series of lawsuits (I, II) filed by the New York Times (NYT).
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Responses are in for the latest monthly poll.
Will Google (GOOG) have to sell Chrome? Things are getting rocky.
All in! MicroStrategy (MSTR) buys another $4.6B in Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
Airline industry jolted after Spirit Airlines (SAVE) files for bankruptcy.
Nordic nations tell residents to prepare for war; Putin going nuclear?
Tesla soars as traders bet on an easy ride for self-driving approvals.
No soup for you: Campbell (CPB) may officially change its name today.
Super Micro (SMCI) hires new auditor, files Nasdaq compliance plan.
Guess who is nearing an acquisition of Jersey Mike’s Subs chain?
Goldman now agrees with Morgan Stanley on the S&P 500 target for 2025.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits
10:00 AM E-Commerce Retail Sales
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
01:10 PM Fed’s Schmid Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines did well; Japan, China and South Korea were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Hungary is up, but Poland, Germany, the UAE, Greece, Finland, Norway, Italy, Israel and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is flat.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fears of WW3
With economic sanctions against Russia not doing their intended job, the Biden administration is upping the ante by turning to more conventional warfare. Authorization has been granted to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles inside Russia, which includes the use of the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs. It’s part of a tit-for-tat escalation that the U.S. has directed to prevent NATO members from being drawn into conflict, but only time will tell if the moves on the chessboard will play out.
Background: The situation in Ukraine has continued to deteriorate in recent months, moving into a deeper war of attrition. Ukraine surprised Russia with a counteroffensive that saw it seize hundreds of miles of territory in the Kursk region. In response, Vladimir Putin turned to North Korea for fresh troops, and has included them in the 50,000 soldiers it has positioned in the area to reclaim lost land. Meanwhile, drone attacks and missile barrages have continued to fly over the border, knocking out electricity in some Ukrainian regions this weekend and prompting the powering down of atomic reactors.
It’s not the first U-turn the U.S. has made in supplying more advanced weapons to Kyiv. Other reversals have included heavy artillery, M1 Abrams tanks, the Patriot missile defense system and eventually F-16 fighter jets. Since Feb. 2022, America has provided Ukraine with more than $175B in aid to avoid explicit participation in the conflict, but Vladimir Putin has warned that the use of long-range missiles would mean the “direct involvement” of NATO countries.
Peace talks? The latest maneuvering comes as President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with a promise to “have the war settled within 24 hours.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also spoke to Putin on Friday for the first time in two years despite backlash from Ukraine and Poland, while Turkey’s Recep Erdogan will reportedly propose a peace deal today at the G20 summit. The framework would prohibit Ukraine from joining NATO for at least 10 years, freeze the conflict on current battle lines, station international troops in a demilitarized eastern Donbas, and guarantee military supplies to Ukraine. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Will Super Micro (SMCI) file compliance plan to maintain Nasdaq listing?
Xi Jinping-Biden discuss Trump 2.0, ‘red lines,’ AI and nukes.
FTC says spam call complaints are down more than 50% since 2021.
First mpox case linked to African outbreak reported in the U.S.
Oil executive Chris Wright chosen to be Trump’s energy secretary.
In Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight, it’s Netflix (NFLX) that went down.
Nvidia (NVDA) said to face key risk from Trump’s global tariff plans.
Gold sees biggest weekly drop since 2021 as Fed in no rush to cut rates.
BOJ signals hikes ahead, but uncertainty over timing weighs on yen.
Trump team eyes easing self-driving rules in boost for Tesla (TSLA).
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
10:00 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
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