Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. China, Hong Kong and India did well; South Korea and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean down but are mostly quiet. The Netherlands are up; Greece, Finland, Portugal and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Bargain hunting
Easing interest rates and inflation, the threat of looming tariffs, as well as a heavy dose of holiday spirits, are having Americans going shopping in record numbers this year. According to the National Retail Federation, an estimated 183.4M people across the country are planning to shop in-store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. That’s up from a “previous record of 182M in 2023 and 18.1M more people than five years ago” and comes despite a holiday shopping season that “continues to pull forward.”
Bonanza begins: Black Friday continues to be the most popular day to scout for deals, with 131.7M people planning to shop, and 65% of them even going out to brick-and-mortar locations. Those numbers continue to show the resilience of the American consumer, who is forecast to send winter holiday spending to record levels during November and December. The NRF sees growth of 2.5% and 3.5% Y/Y to total $979.5B-$989B, with retailers expected to hire between 400K-500K seasonal workers to meet demand and support business operations.
The investing side of retail has also been strong this year. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index (SP500-25) has soared 25% YTD, led by names like Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), Deckers Outdoor (NYSE:DECK) and Tapestry (NYSE:TPR), while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index (SP500-30) has logged a return of 18%, boosted by Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and Kellanova (NYSE:K). However, there has been a notable divergence among companies – even within the same sector – with shares of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) recently jumping to new highs after a beat-and-raise quarter and Target (NYSE:TGT) sliding 20% following its Q3 earnings report.
Black Friday schedule: The stock market will shut early at 1 PM today, bond markets will close an hour later, while metals and U.S. crude oil will settle at 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM, respectively. Some history… Back in 1992, the major U.S. exchange operators called for a 2 PM ET close for the Friday after Thanksgiving, two hours earlier than the regular 4 PM. The following year, the NYSE and Nasdaq chose to shutter markets at 1 PM, a schedule that is currently observed.
What else is happening…
It’s official: Australia passes social media ban for kids under 16.
Postponed: OPEC+ delays oil production strategy meeting.
UBER under FTC probe for possible consumer law violations.
New U.S. chip curbs on China could be coming soon.
Google (GOOGL) takes aim at Epic Games app store verdict.
Microsoft (MSFT) slides after FTC launches antitrust investigation.
Trade around the clock: SEC approves the 24X National Exchange.
Thanksgiving travelers see some of this year’s lowest gas prices.
Palantir (PLTR) Vs. Super Micro (SMCI): A tale of two camps.
Thankful for all-time highs and 20%+ returns for the S&P 500.
Today’s Economic Calendar
NYSE Early Close at 1:00 PM
SIFMA Early Close at 2:00 PM
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. China, Hong Kong, India, Australia and New Zealand posted gains; Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines posted losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Denmark, Poland, France, Greece, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Israel and Saudi Arabia are leading to the downside. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
T is for Tariffs
“When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win,” reads a tweet from President Trump in March 2018. That philosophy is still in place, but tariff threats seem to be expanding in areas like border security and policy, on top of the focus surrounding deficits and unfair trade practices during his first term in office.
Plans for Day 1: “As one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States,” unless the nations “stop this Invasion of our Country” with “Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. An “additional 10% Tariff” will be applied to all Chinese imports unless the country resolves the “massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl.” Trump also detailed that, “representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” while “both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem.”
The plans follow the appointment of Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative, who will be tasked with implementing Trump’s economic agenda and conducting negotiations. Complicating the matter is that many of these challenges deal with security as much as they do trade, which is a sensitive topic for nations like Mexico, which hasn’t yet been able to confront the powerful cartels that control a sizable part of the country and shadow economy. It has also called into question the USMCA trade deal brokered under Trump, which can be reopened for review starting in 2026.
“One tariff will be followed by another in response, and so on until we put common companies at risk,” Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum responded, as investors sent down shares of major exporters – from Mexico to the U.S. – like Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA). “No one will win a trade war or a tariff war,” Chinese Embassy Spokesperson Liu Pengyu added in a statement. In contrast, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more conciliatory tone, saying, “this is a relationship that we know takes a certain amount of working on, and that’s what we’ll do.”
Brace for impact? Seeking Alpha subscribers are somewhat divided on Trump’s tariff plans, with 61% seeing them as a tax on the consumer and upending trade, and 39% viewing them as necessary to bring back U.S. manufacturing and protect domestic industries (per 1,414 responses to Wall Street Breakfast’s November Sentiment Survey). Any renewed price spikes could threaten to reignite inflation, though others cite the relatively low rate during Trump’s first term despite tariffs on steel, aluminum, solar panels and washing machines, as well as the broad tariffs placed on goods from China. While the latest threats shook some sectors on Tuesday, it didn’t keep the benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) from reaching new highs, notching its 52nd record close of 2024.
What else is happening…
‘Pack a little patience,’ TSA warns ahead of busiest Thanksgiving ever.
Bank of America (BAC) moves down FSB’s ‘too big to fail’ list of banks.
Fed minutes: FOMC members see further rate cuts, but at gradual pace.
Biden proposes expanded obesity drug coverage under Medicare.
Crude futures little changed despite Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal.
Oil producers won’t ‘drill, baby, drill’ under Trump – Exxon (XOM).
Retail Wrap: Holiday shopping season follows a flurry of earnings.
Bitcoin drifts lower toward $90,000; can it hit $100,000 by year-end?
SoftBank eyes investing $1.5B in OpenAI through new tender offer.
Here are the stocks on Wolfe Research’s most-shorted ‘Hit List.’
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Durable Goods Orders
08:30 AM GDP
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods (Advance)
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Corporate Profits
08:30 AM Retail Inventories (Advance)
08:30 AM Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Survey of Business Uncertainty
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
01:00 PM Results of $44B, 7-Year Note Auction
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines all posted losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. Denmark, the UAE, South Africa, Hungary, Israel and the Czech Republic are up; Turkey, Finland, Norway and Spain are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is unchanged. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Goodbye DEI
Walmart (WMT) has become the latest corporation to back away from diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives amid growing pressure ahead of Black Friday and the holiday shopping season. The latest drive was led (again) by influencer and political activist Robby Starbuck, who called it the “biggest win yet for our movement to end wokeness in corporate America.” The policy decision by the biggest U.S. retailer and private employer is likely to send shockwaves across Corporate America, especially for larger competitors like Amazon (AMZN) and Target (TGT).
Roll them back, roll them out: Walmart will stop using the terms “DEI” and “LatinX” in its communications, as well as curbing racial equity training for staff and diversity hiring guidelines. It will also no longer factor in race and gender when granting supplier contracts, while eligibility for financing will not be based on certain demographic data. Walmart will additionally remove all “sexual and/or transgender products marketed to children,” review all funding for LGBT+ Pride events, and stop participating in the Human Rights Council’s LGBT+ equality index.
“So far you’ve helped me change corporate policy at Tractor Supply (TSCO), John Deere (DE), Harley Davidson (HOG), Polaris (PII), Indian Motorcycle (PII), Lowe’s (LOW), Ford (F), Coors (TAP), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Jack Daniels (BF.B), DeWalt tools (SWK), Craftsman (SWK), Caterpillar (CAT), Boeing (BA), Toyota (TM) and now WALMART!” Starbuck said on X. “I don’t ask companies to take on my political views. I am simply advocating for corporate neutrality and believe that is the future.”
From the SA comments section: “A good company will now become a great company to invest in,” writes wam350. “Corporate America just knows that DEI is a competitive disadvantage and is bad for business,” adds coroscant72. “Hiring people based on race, sex, and sexual orientation, rather than competency is a disadvantage. Contracts and subcontracts that are awarded based on race, sex, and sexual orientation, rather than making a business decision also puts you at a competitive disadvantage.” (20 comments)
Mystery Sector
SA Sentiment: Wall Street Breakfast subscribers were polled last week on the most realistic alternative energy source in the U.S. Choices given were wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal and hydropower, but only one clear winner emerged from the survey.
Hints: This sector recently experienced a wave of investment from Big Tech and might have more staying power this time around due to demand from artificial intelligence and data centers. Three out of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks of 2024 – like Vistra (VST) +300%, GE Vernova (GEV) +151%, Constellation Energy (CEG) +113% – also have a presence in this industry.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Tackle the national debt via these strategies.
As Trump threatens new tariffs; China responds, ‘no one will win.’
For real? Macy’s (M) employee hid up to $154M in delivery expenses.
Qualcomm’s (QCOM) interest in Intel (INTC) takeover is waning.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) buys more bitcoin; Wall Street hikes price targets.
Kohl’s (KSS) hires former Walmart (WMT) executive as next CEO.
California’s Newsom excludes Tesla (TSLA) from ZEV credit proposal.
Rivian (RIVN) gets $6.6B conditional loan approval for Georgia EV plant.
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) rallies on raised guidance, solid earnings.
NBC (CMCSA) willing to pay triple to air Macy’s (M) Thanksgiving Parade.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:00 AM Case-Shiller Home Price Index
09:00 AM FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
11:30 AM Results of $28B, 2-Year FRN Auction
01:00 PM Results of $70B, 5-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Money Supply
02:00 PM FOMC Minutes
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, South Korea, India, New Zealand, Indonesia and the Philippines did well; China and Hong Kong were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. Poland, Turkey, the UAE, Finland, Norway, Hungary and Spain are leading while Saudi Arabia is down. Futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Unsustainable path
The United States is closing out the year with a lot of red ink as the national debt surpassed $36T for the first time. Gloomy fiscal milestones are now happening every several months, according to the Treasury Department, with the deficit hitting $35T in late July and $34T earlier this year. It’s also helping shift the conversation from talk into action, with the next administration making it a priority as it gears up to take the helm at the White House.
The DOGE plan: The hardest area to tackle has been popular entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which have been major contributors to the deficit. With no easy solutions there, President-elect Trump has tasked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head up the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to “cut the federal government down to size.” The new mission will also focus on the “sheer magnitude of waste, fraud and abuse” despite the “onslaught from entrenched interests in Washington.”
“DOGE will help end federal overspending by taking aim at the $500B+ in annual federal expenditures that are unauthorized by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended, from $535M a year to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and $1.5B for grants to international organizations to nearly $300M to progressive groups like Planned Parenthood,” Musk and Ramaswamy wrote in a WSJ op-ed. “Many federal contracts have gone unexamined for years. The Pentagon recently failed its seventh consecutive audit, suggesting that the agency’s leadership has little idea how its annual budget of more than $800B is spent.”
Up next: While interest rates are coming down due to the Fed’s new easing cycle, cutting spending is never easy, with Trump adding $8.4T to the national debt (including $4.8T in COVID relief) during his first term in office. Even if DOGE gets on the case, expect legal battles centering around executive overreach, statutory protections and regulatory reversals. Other factors include how the 119th Republican-controlled Congress will handle the reinstatement of the debt ceiling and the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as well as plans from other ranking officials, such as nominee Russell Vought as White House budget office director and Scott Bessent as head of the U.S. Treasury. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Super Micro (SMCI) comeback: What changed since auditor exit?
Debt deadlock has DirecTV scrap deal for Dish Network (SATS).
Not enough? COP29 ends with $300B climate finance pledge.
Here are the election’s ramifications on the real estate sector.
Big opening: Wicked (CMCSA), Gladiator II (PARA) bring in $270M.
Tesla, Rivian (RIVN) reach ‘conditional’ settlement in tech theft lawsuit.
Biden administration to reduce Intel’s (INTC) $8.5B CHIPS Act grant.
Trump ready to revive Keystone XL pipeline, but it’s a tough road ahead.
Nominee Lutnick’s firm in talks with Tether for $2B bitcoin lending program.
SEC collects record $8.2B in fines in 2024, mostly from Terraform Labs.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
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