Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines did well; Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and little changed. France, Turkey and Italy are up; Norway, Hungary and Portugal are down. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Watching closely
U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to return to a more normal level in November, economists predict, after hurricanes and the strike at Boeing (BA) torpedoed October’s numbers. The U.S. economy is projected to have added 200K jobs last month, according to consensus estimates, rebounding from the paltry 12K reported in the Labor Department’s initial quote for October payrolls. Expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to revise those prior numbers as well.
Job market trends: According to the Beige Book released on Wednesday, “employment levels were flat or up only slightly across districts.” Hiring activity was also “subdued as worker turnover remained low and few firms reported increasing their headcount,” while “the level of layoffs was reportedly low.” Today’s report is expected to show the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the previous month, while hourly wages are expected to moderate slightly to a 0.3% M/M increase from +0.4% in October.
Most importantly, the job numbers will be the last big macro look at the economy before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on Dec. 17-18. The central bank now sees the risks to its dual mandate of full employment and price stability as roughly balanced, but outsized numbers could sway any policy decisions. While Fed officials have said they can be patient in adjusting their benchmark rate, if the labor market deteriorates more sharply than they expect, they’ll take action to ease policy quickly.
SA commentary: Mott Capital Management, SA Investing Group Leader of Reading The Markets, points out that a strong jobs report could lower the likelihood of a December cut, providing as evidence the Fed’s recent Beige Book, where regional Fed surveys saw employment gains. Chris Lau, Investing Group Leader of DIY Value Investing, expects a more muted response to the NFP figures, with markets and policymakers shifting more attention to the incoming Trump administration’s policies. “Despite the market’s confidence in an easing monetary policy, they will need to pivot their attention to the trade war of 2025.” (3 comments)
The Next Stop
What else is happening…
Taking a breather: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) retreats from $100K.
OPEC+ delay buys time, but similar dilemma seen ahead.
Trump names ex-PayPal COO David Sacks as AI and crypto czar.
Buy the post-election healthcare dip with these stocks.
Boeing (BA) plea deal rejected; 737 Max production yet to restart.
Airline stocks soar as these carriers forecast strong holiday travel.
Dividend watch? Chevron (CVX) is cutting back on capex budget.
Lululemon (LULU) delivers solid results, hikes guidance and buyback.
Tractor Supply (TSCO) unveils long-term targets, 5-for-1 stock split.
Goldman: 11 buy-rated shares with at least 10% upside to price targets.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Non-farm payrolls
09:15 AM Fed’s Bowman Speech
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:30 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
12:00 PM Fed’s Hammack Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
01:00 PM Fed’s Daly Speech
03:00 PM Consumer Credit
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia did well; Japan, China and South Korea were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly doing well. Poland, Greece, South Africa, Hungary, the Netherlands and Italy are up; Denmark is down. Index futures in the States point to a slight down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is flat; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Going, going, gone!
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading above $100,000 for the first time, as a bumper rally continues in the aftermath of the U.S. election (+48% since Nov. 5). The ride has been a wild one for Bitcoin and the crypto markets, with the most recent catalyst stemming from President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly former regulator, to take the helm of the SEC. Here’s what Seeking Alpha analysts have said in the lead-up to the latest milestone.
Political support
“If Donald Trump’s plan to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve is implemented and other countries quickly follow suit, it would significantly increase overall demand for Bitcoin. This could make Bitcoin worth $400,000 per coin within the next 5 years. Just like gold, Bitcoin is a decentralized and inflation-resistant asset that might retain value better than USD in some cases.” – Kennan Mell
Wasn’t DeFi the goal?
“We personally are of the opinion that Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general are most likely to be assigned to the ‘greater fool theory.’ One can question whether Bitcoin is actually ‘decentralized,’ as studies suggest that 75% of cryptocurrency volume is on exchanges, while at the same time there is a large concentration/centralization among miners and developers… We believe they are particularly problematic as they are highly volatile… Bitcoin is not widely used in everyday life… Even as a ‘safe haven’ during a panic like 2020, Bitcoin plunged during the depths of the ongoing financial panic.” – Wright’s Research
Store of value
“The potential for widespread corporate [balance sheet] adoption is especially compelling given the current macroeconomics environment, where inflation concerns remain persistent, and fixed-income yields remain unattractive. MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) success is providing a tantalizing blueprint for other corporations to replicate its strategy in order to protect and even grow their treasury reserves in an era of monetary uncertainty.” – Simple Investment Ideas
Last chance
“We are in the midst of one of those periodic eruptions of irrationality that brings forth all manner of con men, flimflam artists and fraudsters, determined to separate fools from their money as quickly as possible lest reality close the window of opportunity. In today’s wild west of finance, even conservative investors can get taken.” – Joseph Calhoun
Mainstream adoption
“This is a great entry point. The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is much more favorable with the current composition of the Presidency, Senate, and House, but there are other facts that make me even more confident. Bitcoin ETFs already exceed $104B in assets and are expected to surpass gold soon, which seems to suggest an influx of institutional investors.” – Multiplo Invest
Ultimate speculative asset
“The unusual convergence of politics and cryptocurrencies that we have observed lately has created what can best be described as a perfect storm of sentiment-driven market dynamics. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise is driven largely by sentiment rather than fundamentals, a fact acknowledged even by its staunchest proponents. The enthusiasm surrounding Dogecoin, a meme-based cryptocurrency with little intrinsic value, exemplifies this speculative excess.” – TMC Research
What else is happening…
Another milestone! Dow (DJI) ends above 45,000 for the first time.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Thompson killed in ‘premeditated’ shooting.
Analyst: Chipotle (CMG) price hikes come from ‘point of strength.’
Amazon sued over alleged Prime exclusion of these D.C. areas.
GM (GM) to record over $5B in charges on China operations.
French government has been toppled. What’s next for markets?
Robinhood (HOOD) CEO Tenev ‘keenly looking’ into sports betting.
Why you should be checking Reddit (RDDT) ahead of trading.
Shell, Equinor to form U.K.’s biggest independent oil and gas firm.
Cuba power grid collapses, millions plunged into darkness… again.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods and Services
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
12:15 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia did well; Japan, China and South Korea were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly doing well. Poland, Turkey, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are leading. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Takeover target
Another hat may soon be thrown in the Slurpee chiller. The Ito family of Japan, the founders of the 7-Eleven chain in the country, is set to propose a ¥9T ($60B) management buyout of Seven & i Holdings (OTCPK:SVNDF), according to sources at Bloomberg. The bid would go up against a ¥7.1T ($47B) offer by Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard (OTCPK:ANCTF), a multinational convenience store operator that owns rival Circle K in the U.S.
Backdrop: Long under pressure from activist shareholders, Seven & i quickly rejected an initial bid from Couche-Tard in September, saying it undervalued its business and didn’t take regulatory concerns into account. A higher offer was eventually made, but fresh efforts are in the works to keep the brand from falling into hands overseas. A bid by the founding Ito family would stave off the largest takeover in Japan and result in Seven & i splitting into three distinct entities.
The first would raise more than ¥1T in cash ($6.6B) via the IPO of North American 7-Eleven stores (as well as its Speedway and Sunoco gas station subsidiaries). Those establishments generated $70.3B in revenue during the most recent fiscal year, showing the power and reach of the business. Another planned unit would include 7-Eleven convenience stores in Japan, while the last division was already announced in October and would be created by spinning off Seven & i’s non-core Japanese businesses like supermarkets, specialty stores, and retail outlets. Undervalued With Good Overseas Growth Potential?
7-Eleven history: Starting out in 1927 as a convenience store attached to Southland Ice Company shops (this was before mainstream refrigeration), the locations eventually gained in popularity by staying open on weekends and for notable branding efforts that made them known as Tote’m Stores. The name was changed to 7-Eleven in 1946 to reflect expanded business hours, while U.S. franchising began in 1961, and in 1973, Ito-Yokado signed an agreement to develop 7-Eleven convenience stores in Japan. In 1991, Ito-Yokado acquired a 70% stake in Southland Corporation, which the conglomerate later expanded to 100% in 2005, when its collective businesses were reorganized into the holding company known as Seven & i Holdings.
What else is happening…
JOLTS report: Job openings rise more than expected in October.
South Korea president may be impeached after martial law chaos.
Oil rises by most in two weeks as OPEC seen extending output cuts.
Trade war: China halts exports of chipmaking metals to U.S.
Campbell (CPB) CEO is joining NFL’s Washington Commanders.
Why is Constellation Brands (STZ) divesting SVEDKA?
CRM in charts: Subscription and support revenue climbs 9.1% Y/Y.
Foes to friends? Zuckerberg wants ‘active role’ in Trump’s tech policies.
Apple (AAPL) touts Amazon’s (AMZN) AI chips in rare endorsement.
Taking the Intel helm: Former board member or Marvell leadership?
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 AM ADP Jobs Report
08:45 AM Fed’s Musalem Speech
09:45 AM PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:00 AM ISM Service Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
01:45 PM Jerome Powell Speech
02:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
—————
Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did great. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand all posted solid gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly doing well. The UK, Denmark, Turkey, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Spain, Italy, Israel, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are posting solid gains. Index futures in the States point to a flat open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Ask Why
It’s likely a parody, but is it also a sign of a frothy market as investors close out 2024?
Enron, the energy firm behind one of the largest corporate scandals in America, has been brought back to life, with a fresh website, newspaper ads, and billboard displays in its prior hometown of Houston. An account with the name Enron subsequently released a video on X that announced the infamous company’s comeback, as well as a countdown clock with a promise to introduce something special next week. It’s got all the successful signs of every modern company, with monikers like “shaping the future of sustainable energy,” “decentralized technology” and around 20 trademark filings related to “non-fungible tokens” and “cryptocurrency services.”
Sound familiar? It’s somewhat of a flashback to the environment that saw many companies change their identity to cash in on the dot-com boom of the late 1990s and the first major crypto wave in 2017. Remember when AuctionWeb became eBay (EBAY)? Bioptix became Riot Blockchain (RIOT)? And don’t forget the AI suffixes of the last several years. There might be some similarities this time around, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) recently skyrocketing to near the $100K-level, while the Nasdaq (COMP:IND) continues to post near-daily record closing highs amid excitement over the artificial intelligence revolution.
“Given historically elevated equity market valuations, prudent investors must remain highly selective and continue to manage risk proactively,” wrote Seeking Alpha’s Ahan Vashi, Investing Group Leader of The Quantamental Investor.
The Crooked E: Upon further investigation, the new holder of the Enron trademark is Arkansas-based The College Company, which is owned by the co-creator of satirical group “Birds Aren’t Real.” The new Enron website, which launched on its bankruptcy anniversary, further notes that “THE INFORMATION ON THE WEBSITE IS FIRST AMENDMENT PROTECTED PARODY, REPRESENTS PERFORMANCE ART, AND IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.” A now-deleted video on X also teased a crypto offering, declaring that “we do not have any token or coin (yet). Stay tuned, we are excited to show you more soon.”
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: The round-the-clock trading casino.
Art Cashin, Wall Street icon and NYSE fixture, dies at 83.
Analysts want ‘radical change’ at Intel (INTC) after CEO exit.
Judge rejects $56B payday for Tesla’s Musk; SpaceX worth $350B?
Fed’s Waller leans toward supporting rate cut in December.
OpenAI CFO: Startup eyes introducing advertising to AI products.
NATO chief warns Trump of ‘dire threat’ from bad Ukraine deal.
No confidence: French government set to collapse over budget.
Super Micro (SMCI) jumps as internal review finds no misconduct.
Black Friday winners and losers: Sell-side analysts weigh in.
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
12:35 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
01:30 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
—————
Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets did great. Japan, China, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains; Indonesia was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly doing well. Denmark, Poland, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Spain, Sweden and the Czech Republic are up more than 1%. Index futures in the States point to a flat-to-up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
New markets
Many are weighing in on developments that may herald a new era of trading after the SEC approved the first U.S. stock exchange that would operate during most hours of every weekday. Watching closely are established rivals like the New York Stock Exchange (ICE), which has already considered a similar proposal on its Arca electronic platform (where it offers extended trading outside traditional market hours).
Snapshot: The operating window of the 24X National Exchange, started by hedge-fund billionaire Steve Cohen, has the potential to shake up market dynamics. The newly approved exchange intends to launch in stages, starting in the second half of 2025, but would eventually operate 23 hours daily (including a break from 7 PM to 8 PM), and five full days a week (from Sunday evening to Friday evening). “We look forward to bringing a superior trading experience to global customers,” 24X CEO Dmitri Galinov declared, adding that “we will deliver the cost efficiency, speed, resilience, and adaptability.”
Many brokers have already switched to overnight trading of select stocks, like Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR). This takes place on an ATS, or alternative trading system (like Blue Ocean), where limit orders seek to counter the lack of liquidity and prevent excessive volatility. In the past, most traders who wanted an extra edge used the premarket or after-hours sessions, especially during earnings season, but this might be the next step in the evolution of the financial markets.
Follow the money: While crypto has always traded around the clock, as well as many futures and forex, things have always been different when it comes to the U.S. stock market. Many felt that better price discovery happens when most Americans are awake, and market makers and financial professionals previously didn’t see any opportunity in an area that would make their lives more complicated. Others see advantages for U.S. traders based in different time zones or investors across the globe, and might be ready to hear a new kind of opening bell. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
SA Asks: Which retail stocks will win or lose this holiday season?
Trump to BRICS: Drop de-dollarization plans or face 100% tariff.
Sudden exit: Stellantis (STLA) CEO Tavares abruptly resigns.
Next OPEC meeting: ‘Stuck between a rock and a hard place.’
Baidu (BIDU) receives license to test its robotaxis in Hong Kong.
Moana 2 (DIS) earns record $221M during Thanksgiving weekend.
BlackRock (BLK) nears deal to buy this private credit firm for $12B.
Musk doesn’t want OpenAI to turn for-profit; Fidelity’s X stake marked up.
Crypto laws to pass ‘fairly quickly’ after Trump takes office – Coinbase.
Arms sales are up and the trend ‘is likely to continue in 2024.’
No UN plastic treaty as oil producers oppose production caps.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
03:15 PM Fed’s Waller: Economic Outlook
04:30 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
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