Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia did well; South Korea was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. Denmark, France, Turkey, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are leading. Futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Second half
The pivot: The Federal Reserve finally began its new easing cycle, with a jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut geared towards a soft landing and the eyes of the FOMC firmly trained on the labor market. U.S. stock market indices hit fresh records, though later in the year, the central bank pared its rate cut forecasts after taking its benchmark rate down a full percentage point. Return of the Bond Vigilantes?
Better for sellers: Seismic changes hit the real estate world as the National Association of Realtors formally dropped its standard commissions to agents as part of a deal to end antitrust lawsuits. While the changes could save sellers money, they may also force buyers to come up with more to pay for the fees or incentivize agents to focus on higher-priced homes.
Military spending: 75 years after NATO was created to counter threats from the Soviet Union, the group gathered in Washington to mark its second diamond anniversary. The expanded alliance welcomed Finland and Sweden into the fold this year, and now consists of 32 countries covering much of Europe, as well as Turkey, Canada, and the U.S. Economic alliances like BRICS also took on increased importance.
Flip the switch: Showing just how interconnected our modern world is, a major tech outage across the globe impacted everything from airports and health providers to banks and stock exchanges. There was some initial confusion over the origin of the “blue screen of death,” but CrowdStrike (CRWD) admitted guilt in the ensuing hours, tracing the issue to “a defect found in a single content update for Windows hosts.”
Goodbye, DEI? Companies from Harley-Davidson (HOG) to Walmart (WMT) stepped away from diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives amid growing industry pressure. The backlash was kickstarted by political commentator Robby Starbuck, who declared during the campaigns, “I don’t ask companies to take on my political views. I am simply advocating for corporate neutrality and believe that is the future.”
New ticket: Following overwhelming pressure from senior Democrats, President Biden abandoned his re-election bid after a disastrous debate performance and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the party’s new presidential nominee. It only took her days to cement the support of all major Democrats, including former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, as well as party leaders in Congress.
Historic comeback: The changes didn’t provide any last-minute help, with Donald Trump winning the November election to become the 47th President of the United States. Trade comes first in Trump’s economic playbook, which will introduce a series of broader and higher tariffs to spur a wave of reshoring and economic growth. Don’t forget the “Trump Trade,” which turned into the “Trump Bump,” as well as two assassination attempts.
Auto consolidation: Rivian (RIVN) and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY) are going at it together. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) are going at it together. It’s all about the new era for automobiles, with margins, electrification, and software-defined vehicles at the forefront of any strategic success. There were also plenty of headlines on self-driving cars and GM dropping out of the robotaxi race.
More security: UnitedHealthcare (UNH) CEO Brian Thompson was shot and killed outside a midtown Manhattan hotel where he was scheduled to speak at the company’s annual investor conference. The words “deny,” “defend,” and “depose,” were found on the shell casings used in the murder, while suspect Luigi Mangione was later arrested at a McDonald’s (MCD) in Pennsylvania. UNH has slumped 16% since the shooting.
Round-the-clock: Potentially shaking up market dynamics, the SEC approved the first U.S. stock exchange that would operate during most hours of every weekday. The schedule of the 24X National Exchange, started by hedge-fund billionaire Steve Cohen, could challenge established rivals like the NYSE (ICE), which is considering a similar proposal on its Arca electronic platform.
What else is happening…
Take a look back at Wall Street’s Santa rallies since 2000.
Netflix (NFLX) dazzles with record ratings for Christmas NFL games.
NY governor approves plan to bill polluters billions for climate costs.
Starbucks (SBUX) gains after barista strike comes to an end.
Palantir, Salesforce lead charge in monetizing AI in 2025 – Wedbush.
Next impeachment: Moving on to South Korea’s acting President Han.
Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) mulls revamp of packaging supply chain.
Bitcoin erases Xmas gains even as MicroStrategy (MSTR) beefs up buying.
Meme revival? Gains for GameStop (GME) after cryptic Roaring Kitty post.
Top dividend picks for 2025, according to Seeking Alpha’s Quant metrics.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 AM International Trade in Goods (Advance)
8:30 AM Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 AM Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
—————
Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, China and Malaysia did well; South Korea was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are closed or minimally changed. Israel is a standout to the downside. Futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down slightly. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Top 10 (Part 1)
2024 was another action-packed year, and hopefully, one that was good for your portfolio. The next week will feature some special editions of Wall Street Breakfast, starting with the hottest newsletter stories from the past year. Enjoy the recaps and don’t forget to add your own memories in the comments section!
Record debt: The United States rang in the new year with a lot of red ink as the national debt surpassed $34T for the first time. The debt has since passed the $36T mark and shows no sign of stopping, especially after the latest funding battle in Congress. Will the DOGE help fix it?
Fasten your seat belt: A plane accident that could have ended in tragedy put a spotlight on the aerospace industry as a door plug on Alaska Airlines (ALK) Flight 1282 blew out and caused the cabin aboard the 737 Max 9 to rapidly depressurize. It was bad news for Boeing (BA) shareholders, who saw shares plummet 31% over the course of the year amid production problems, quality issues, a Starliner debacle and the need for a new direction. Is a comeback in store for 2025?
Supply disruption: Cargo is still being rerouted near the port of Baltimore, one of the busiest ports on the U.S. East Coast. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge killed six people and severed an interstate highway, and it will be some time before the structure is rebuilt (targeted for the end of 2028). The bridge collapsed in the middle of the night after the 95K-ton container ship Dali, chartered by Maersk (OTCPK:AMKBY), collided with one of its support columns following a last-minute distress call.
Coming of crypto age: A decades-long wait ended as the SEC finally approved 11 spot bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETFs after years of rejecting the applications. Next up were spot ethereum ETFs, as well as the Trump Bump, with crypto being incorporated into his election campaign. The developments definitely gave a big boost to the industry after Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of FTX, was sentenced to 25 years behind bars.
Cuckoo for cocoa: Traders couldn’t get enough chocolatey goodness, with supply shortages sending cocoa futures (CC1:COM) past $5,000 per ton, and then $6K, $7K, $8K, $9K, $10K, $11K and eventually topping the $12K level. Production was dented by severe weather and crop disease, but the big run-up has also been attributed to speculation, and made cocoa beans more expensive than other popular commodities like copper.
Against the clock: Efforts to outlaw TikTok came in strong and fast as the social media app tries to prevent a ban in the United States. Fears centered around national security risks surrounding data and software, especially if information can be shared with the Chinese government, as well as worries that parent firm ByteDance (BDNCE) could use the TikTok algorithm to track and influence users with selective content promoted by Beijing.
Content rush: The way publishers approached generative AI evolved as the media industry changed its outlook on the technologies of the future. In the early innings of the AI revolution, firms banded together to stave off any threats to their bottom line, but companies later saw lucrative revenue streams in the new era of monetization, though others worried about what it might mean for their subscription-based models. See a broad list of deals inked this year.
Private credit boom: 2024 was all about the private credit market, which consists of private loans made by funds to privately owned companies. Fueling the surge were big banks pulling back on the riskier areas of lending due to increased regulation, and higher capital and liquidity rules. The emerging asset class has grown from around $250B in 2010 to about $2T today, and is set to expand by double-digit percentages in the coming years.
Top of the world: Nvidia (NVDA) surpassed Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) to become the world’s most valuable company. The chip giant’s shares are up 183% YTD, driven by surging demand for its popular GPUs and the generative AI revolution. It’s part of a broader story of the Magnificent 7 group of stocks, whose strength has powered indices like the Nasdaq (COMP:IND) and S&P 500 (SP500) to countless record highs throughout the year.
Social trouble: Blaming social media for a youth mental health crisis, U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy pushed for a warning label on social media platforms, similar to the disclaimers placed on cigarettes 60 years ago. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also signed a bill banning kids under 14 from joining social media platforms, and required those aged 14-15 to get parental consent before creating an account, while Australia made headlines with its “world leading” social media ban for children.
Stay tuned for Part 2 tomorrow…
What else is happening…
Sanctions? Russia is now using bitcoin (BTC-USD) for international trade.
Toy story: Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT) may be holiday season winners.
American Airlines (AAL) says a technical glitch with vendor caused delays.
Major banks sue Federal Reserve over stress testing framework.
Apple (AAPL) wants to testify in Google’s upcoming U.S. antitrust trial.
Air taxi startup Lilium (OTC:LILMF) finds a buyer, stock skyrockets 268%.
LYFT sues San Francisco for allegedly overcharging $100M in taxes.
Shot down by Russia? Azerbaijani airliner crashes in Kazakhstan.
Bain Capital and KKR bid on non-core assets of 7-Eleven parent firm.
Moving past Jan. 6: Here are the companies funding Trump’s inauguration.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
1:00 PM Results of $44B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
—————
Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were quiet. China, Malaysia and Thailand did well; Indonesia was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are closed or minimally changed. The UK, the UAE, the Netherlands and Israel are up; Turkey is down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Season’s Greetings!
After some difficult sessions last week, traders are keeping their eyes on the chimney to see if the so-called Santa Claus rally will take shape this year. The seasonally bullish trend typically sees equities rise over the last five trading sessions of December and the first two trading days of January. A holiday-shortened schedule is on tap for today, with the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq closing at 1 PM ET for Christmas Eve.
Bigger picture: The “Trump Bump” in the aftermath of the presidential election took a downward turn last week as the Fed confirmed what many investors were expecting regarding the monetary policy outlook for 2025. Market indices fell under some pressure, but have shown signs of a comeback over the past two sessions. However, Treasury yields continued to climb following the latest consumer confidence data, with the rate on the benchmark 10-year note approaching 4.6% for the first time since April.
Should investors believe in Santa this year? The indicator was first recorded in 1972 by Wall Street legend Yale Hirsch, the creator of Stock Trader’s Almanac. He famously declared, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” While Yale passed away in 2021, the Stock Trader’s Almanac is now produced by his son Jeff, who noted the importance of taking the “Santa Claus Rally” into consideration along with the “First Five Days” early warning system (how stocks perform in the first five sessions of the year) and the “January Barometer” (S&P 500 performance in the first month of the year) to know what to expect in 2025.
The January Trifecta: “When all three [indicators] hit, all are positive, the market is up 90.6% of the time, or 29 out of 34 years, for a 17.7% average gain for the S&P 500. What derails that could be something systemic with the economy or politically, or disappointment out of the market leading companies like the Mag7. Years when the Santa Claus Rally fails to materialize, markets are either flat, bear markets, or at least a time when you can buy stocks cheaper during the year.”
What else is happening…
MicroStrategy (MSTR) adds to bitcoin stash for seventh straight week.
Biden to decide on US Steel (X) takeover after CFIUS deadlock.
The Container Store (OTC:TCSG) files for bankruptcy after 46 years.
Google (GOOG) says selling Chrome is ‘extreme,’ pitches other remedies.
Nasdaq 100 rebalance: These stocks’ index weights have shrunk.
Walmart, fintech Branch sued for allegedly exploiting delivery drivers.
All eyes on Netflix (NFLX) as Christmas NFL games take the spotlight.
Fed mulls changes to bank stress tests due to ‘evolving legal landscape.’
What you need to know about Nordstrom’s (JWN) landmark buyout.
This year’s ‘biggest losers’ could see a bullish reversal in 2025.
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
11:30 AM Results of $28B, 2-Year FRN Auction
11:30 AM Results of $70B, 5-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Money Supply
—————
Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted big gains. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines all participated. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. Denmark, Poland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Portugal, Austria and the Czech Republic are up; Turkey and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a flat open for the S&P 500 and a positive open for the Nasdaq.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is up big. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Incoming!
Drones have been all the rage in recent weeks, with sightings reported across New Jersey and the U.S. East Coast. It’s not yet clear where they are coming from and why, but what seems pretty clear is that drones will be playing a big part of life in the foreseeable future. UAVs have been moving fast out of the hobbyist and techie world into the commercial and military sectors, and that trend might be a big one for 2025 and beyond.
The latest: DoorDash (DASH) is partnering with Alphabet-owned Wing (GOOGL) to deliver food orders from two malls in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area, including Hulen and Stonebriar Centre (BN). Orders can be placed from more than 50 merchants, with meals arriving “in as little as 15 minutes.” The delivery drones fly up to 65 mph and reach a cruising height of around 150 feet before lowering their contents to the ground via a winch system.
The service was made possible by the Federal Aviation Administration recently approving Wing (and rival Zipline) to conduct beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights over Dallas. Wing has completed over 400,000 commercial deliveries worldwide since its first U.S. pilot began in 2019. Its last partnership with DoorDash in March gave consumers the ability to order flying burgers from Wendy’s (WEN), but Wing is now looking to transform the industry by converting open areas of shopping malls into drone delivery hubs.
“We are proud to be the first landlord to provide drone delivery as another avenue to help our tenants serve our communities,” said Katie Kurtz, Senior Vice President of Business Development at Brookfield Properties. “We’re committed to meeting the changing needs of the ways people shop. Brookfield Properties has a strong track record of evolving our assets and leading ahead of the curve in retail.”
What else to watch: While drone capabilities are expanding in food delivery after successful tests with consumer products (with Walmart) and medicine (with Walgreens), advancements in the military are being eyed as the next big theme. In several controversial posts over the past month, Elon Musk took aim at the costly Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 program and “manned fighter jets [that] are becoming obsolete in the era of drones.” According to the DOGE appointee, drones can be networked to fly in swarms, are exponentially cheaper, and will never “get [any] pilots killed.” Take the new WSB survey.
What else is happening…
U.S. government shutdown averted as Senate clears spending bill.
SA Asks: Which Big Pharmas are likely to announce big M&A deals?
Remember MoviePass? It is back again and this time it is profitable.
Labor unrest: Starbucks union workers are now on strike in nine states.
U.K. weighs facial recognition tech to keep kids away from social media.
Palantir (PLTR), Anduril may form consortium to take on defense firms.
Honda (HMC), Nissan confirm merger talks; this carmaker may join too.
Did the White House have undue influence over U.S. Steel (X) review?
Trump threatens to retake Panama Canal, wants U.S. to own Greenland.
Apple (AAPL) rethinks home strategy, said to be working on smart doorbell.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
01:00 PM Results of $69B, 2-Year Note Auction
—————