Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines led while Japan and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are up big. The UK, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are posting solid gains; Denmark is down. Index futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
An arm and a leg
Insurance is shaping up to be one of the big themes of 2025. The California wildfires have put a spotlight on the property side of the business, while the recent murder of Brian Thompson, one of the top executives at UnitedHealth (UNH), tragically put healthcare insurance on the front page. UnitedHealth’s stock still hasn’t recovered since the fatal shooting in early December, with shares tumbling nearly 20% and erasing $100B in market capitalization.
State of the industry: Another spotlight was recently placed on the sector by President-elect Donald Trump, who promised to “knock out the [drug industry] middleman” – such as UnitedHealth’s OptumRx unit. Also not helping the situation was the healthcare giant’s disappointing medical loss ratio and Q4 revenue miss on Thursday, which prompted some questions on these concerns.
“Could you talk a little bit about one of the things I think is hanging over long-term investors out there, which is levels of customer satisfaction?” Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes asked UnitedHealth (UNH) CEO Andrew Witty, in a session that saw the stock slump another 6%.
The transcript: “It means not just reducing the cost, making it more affordable, but it’s also about trying to make it easier to access, less complex, less confusing,” he replied. “As I said in my opening comments, we recognize there’s still a lot of work to be done in that regard… Fundamentally, healthcare costs more in the U.S. because the price of a single procedure, visit or prescription is higher here than it is in other countries. Another example is the persistently high cost of drugs in the U.S., leaving American consumers, employers and public agencies to pay disproportionately more than people in other countries… Tackling that problem will require all parts of the system and policymakers to come together.”
What to do about it? It’s not an easy equation, where private insurance companies negotiate rates and prices with everyone from hospitals and doctors to drug manufacturers and medical device makers. Expectations about the level of service (i.e. quality) is also the biggest barometer in the U.S. equation, compared to access and cost, while the money offered in the system has been the driver behind top quality talent and influential power. While prices aren’t likely to come down, some of the complexities may be ironed out, so expect to see more consumer offerings like UnitedHealthcare’s Gold Card Program (which allows qualified physicians to waive prior authorizations) and Value-Based Care (proactive and custom-tailored models).
Does that mean UnitedHealth (UNH) is a Buy at current levels? Check out the latest analysis and ratings on Seeking Alpha.
What else is happening…
California regulator approves update to SoCal Edison’s wildfire plan.
TSMC’s (TSM) U.S. chip plant unlikely to see latest tech before Taiwan.
TikTok (BDNCE) ban: Biden said to leave fate of app to Trump.
Growth from Morgan Stanley (MS); BofA (BAC) issues strong guidance.
Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin (BORGN) launches rocket in first test flight.
SpaceX’s (SPACE) Starship explosion: Airlines divert to avoid debris.
FTC refers complaint on Snapchat’s (SNAP) AI chatbot to DOJ.
Trump plans to make crypto a national priority via executive order.
BlackRock (BLK) ETF chief expects more clarity on bitcoin regulation.
Treasury pick Bessent pledges to fix ‘significant spending problem.’
Nintendo teases ‘Switch 2’ console set to come out later this year.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits
09:15 AM Industrial Production
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia and Singapore did great; the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. The UK, France, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy and Sweden are up; Denmark, Poland, Norway and Spain are down. Index futures in the States point to a flat open for the S&P and a positive open for the Nasdaq.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Shutting down
One of Wall Street’s most famous short sellers is calling it quits. Hindenburg Research attributed the decision to a career that “has come at the cost of missing a lot of the rest of the world and the people I care about,” though it has been increasingly difficult to be a short seller in the current environment. One doesn’t have to look far to Jim Chanos and Citron Capital’s Andrew Left, who have hung up their boots or been targeted by regulatory probes and lawsuits in recent years (don’t forget Bill Ackman).
Resume: Hindenburg has been behind some notable calls during its seven years in the business. The firm’s reports have covered companies from Nikola (NKLA) and Icahn Enterprises (IEP) to Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Roblox (RBLX) – which have seen the departures of executives and fines – and even bankruptcies at Lordstown Motors (OTCPK:NRDE) and SmileDirectClub. Hindenburg also didn’t limit its research to the U.S., going after global targets, like India’s powerful Adani Group in 2023.
The art of short-selling research seeks to identify market manipulation, unethical practices, and accounting fraud. “Boy did we have an impact,” Hindenburg founder Nate Anderson wrote in a letter. “Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators at least in part through our work, including billionaires and oligarchs.” Many companies that are targeted see huge drops in their stock, though others are dismissed and see share price recoveries, like the campaign against Carvana (CVNA) earlier this month.
Some of Anderson’s beginnings in short selling started on Seeking Alpha, where he would post his research and first used the name Hindenburg. It was a reference to the 1937 disaster and “similar man-made disasters floating around in the market.” Anderson now plans to release material and videos on how to conduct investigations, which can cater to the next generation of analysts who want to learn the craft and embrace the same passion.
From the SA comments section: “It is very disturbing to see short sellers being pressured out of business by gov’t as they bring a necessary and useful element of accountability to the markets,” writes Guiley. “Really hope some other firms step up and play the role that Hindenburg did,” adds Zen345, though Austin Craig feels, “they can receive good tips at times, but they also write blatant hit pieces too.” (53 comments)
What else is happening…
Check out CPI in charts; Nasdaq ends with 2% rally.
Bank stocks drive up as first set of earnings prove strong.
Last-minute crisis after Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal reached.
FDA moves to limit nicotine in cigarettes, bans red dye No. 3.
Biden warns of ‘tech-industrial complex’; Trump mulls TikTok order.
Cannabis supporters in Florida launch fresh legalization effort.
U.S. must reconsider Chevron’s (CVX) Venezuela waiver – Rubio.
U.S. emissions fraud: Toyota (TM) unit reaches $1.6B settlement.
Southwest (LUV) sued by DOT for chronically delayed flights.
Canada eyes $105B in retaliatory tariffs if Trump sets levies.
Against the tide: Costco (COST) stands firm on DEI initiatives.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Retail Sales
08:30 AM Philly Fed Business Outlook
08:30 AM Import/Export Prices
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines did well; China, Malaysia and Taiwan were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are leading. Index futures in the States point to an enormous gap up open for the stock market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Earnings kickoff
Get ready for the coming flood of corporate earnings, with the top banks on Wall Street ready to kick off the festivities. For investors in the sector, guidance may be as important as the results, with markets now factoring in less rate cuts (if any) for 2025. Interest rates remain relatively elevated despite the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis point over the past quarter, which could help drive banks’ closely watched net interest income, along with loan growth and a strong economy.
Mark your calendar: Coming up this morning are Q4 earnings from JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC). They’ll be followed tomorrow by the quarterly numbers from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC). There’s also a whole host of regional players, asset managers, credit card companies and other financial institutions reporting over the next week. See the full list on Seeking Alpha’s earnings calendar.
Big bank stocks have significantly outperformed the market over the past year, climbing around 46% on average, or over double the 22% return of the S&P 500 (see the chart below). The Fed pivot helped bolster the sector, as well as the election of Donald Trump to the White House. Investors are now banking on a lighter regulatory environment and business-friendly agenda, which can result in a pickup in loan originations, an IPO comeback, and more investment banking revenue amid strong M&A.
What to watch: Even those not invested in the banking industry will be closely watching the upcoming results. Non-interest revenue will detail the state of capital markets activity, while provisions for credit losses can provide a window into how well banks expect the economy to hold up. Consumer spending will also be in the spotlight, and don’t forget comments on the macro situation – or recent trends like rising bond yields – from some of the biggest CEOs on Wall Street.
What else is happening…
CPI on deck: Will the Fed’s inflation progress stall again?
New landscape: MSNBC president to quit after four-year stint.
Trump to create External Revenue Service with deficit on watch.
FTC finds PBMs excessively marked up prices on specialty drugs.
Restructuring continues at Intel (INTC) with venture capital spinoff.
Biden to lift Cuba’s terrorism designation during final days in office.
New supply chain: Aramco (ARMCO) to boost lithium investments.
Elon Musk sued for delayed disclosures of Twitter stock purchases.
Job cuts: Zuckerberg is targeting ‘low-performers’ at Meta (META).
South Korea arrests impeached president over martial law chaos.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:00 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 AM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Fed’s Williams Speech
11:00 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
02:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. China, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan did well; Japan, Indonesia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. Poland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Israel and Sweden are leading. Index futures in the States point to relatively big up open for the stock market.
————— VIDEO: Trading Themes from 2024 —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is flat. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
TikTokX
The owners behind TikTok and other Chinese officials are debating what to do in the event that the U.S. Supreme Court upholds a law that would force a sale or ban TikTok in the U.S. Things are looking like they might be ruled that way, as signaled by the justices during opening arguments last week. Whatever happens will be complicated for Bytedance (BDNCE), and contingency plans appear to be in the making ahead of a Jan. 19 deadline.
Who would buy it? A new report from Bloomberg suggests that Chinese officials are evaluating a potential option that would involve Elon Musk’s X taking control of the U.S. operations of TikTok. That could help boost advertising efforts of the platforms, as well as potentially harnessing large amounts of TikTok data to boost Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI. One of the keys to any deal might be buying the short-form video app without the algorithm, especially amid pressure from other contenders like Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), or a joint bid led by billionaire Frank McCourt and Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary (via Project Liberty).
“In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform,” Elon Musk wrote on X in April. “Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for.” To note, a TikTok spokesperson told the BBC that the Bloomberg report was “pure fiction.”
What are the boundaries of the First Amendment? That’s a question that continues to be asked in the 21st century, as the tech revolution evolves from the dot-com era to social media and generative AI. TikTok is the latest to be targeted in the debate, and the effects will be seismic due to its popularity and 170M users in the U.S. The app is owned by Chinese parent ByteDance, prompting serious concerns that it can be used for espionage or algorithmic propaganda manipulation, though others call the worries overblown, even likening them to a new Red Scare. (13 comments)
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Nvidia might have more room to fall amid export rules.
Robinhood (HOOD) broker-dealers to pay $45M to settle SEC claims.
Moderna (MRNA) shares slide after slashing sales outlook for 2025.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) CEO reiterates he wants to buy U.S. Steel (X).
Edison (EIX) utility blamed in lawsuit over role of equipment in LA fire.
Trump team discusses gradual tariff hikes for leverage, inflation control.
Bill Ackman (OTCPK:PSHZF) offers to take over Howard Hughes (HHH).
Private credit rush? Goldman Sachs (GS) is merging three of its units.
Bonds are ‘toxic,’ buy bitcoin instead – MicroStrategy’s (MSTR) Saylor.
Policy watch: Bank of Japan to discuss interest rate hike next week.
Today’s Economic Calendar
06:00 AM NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
08:30 AM PPI-Final Demand
10:00 AM Fed’s Schmid Speech
03:05 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted big losses. Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines dropped more than 1%. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. Portugal is doing well, but Denmark, Poland, Turkey, South Africa, Switzerland, the Netherlands and Italy are down more than 1%. Index futures in the States point to relatively big down open for the stock market.
————— VIDEO: Trading Themes from 2024 —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Tariff talk
It’s just a week away before President-elect Trump takes office, and many investors are talking about the policies that will be enacted under the new administration. The most controversial economic approach has clearly been tariffs, which may be leveled against China, Canada, Mexico, the EU, or other blocs and nations. Here’s a rundown of what Team Trump is looking to get out of tariffs, and why they might be the best tool or bargaining chip to deal with everything from manufacturing and trade to the fiscal deficit. Agree? Disagree? Comment here.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “The truth is that tariffs have a long and storied history as both a revenue-raising tool and a way of protecting strategically important industries in the U.S. President-elect Trump has added a third leg to the stool: tariffs as a negotiating tool with our trading partners. Our size gives us market power and the ability to dictate terms – other countries need us more than we need them. We have but to use that power.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: “When you’re running for office, you make broad statements so that people will understand you. Tariffs are an amazing tool for President Trump to use, and he understands ‘don’t tariff stuff we don’t make’ and ‘Build In America.’ We can’t sell a Ford (F) or GM (GM) in Europe because there are 100% tariffs. In Japan, [also] 100% tariffs [stemming from the Marshall plan]. How about we say, ‘we are going to tariff you like you are going to tariff us.’ Of course, they’re going to come in and negotiate, and their tariffs are going to come down.”
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer: “Tariffs can help support U.S. manufacturing jobs in particular, especially to the extent that they’re remediating an unfair trade practice. If you level out that playing field, it makes it so that Americans don’t have to compete unfairly.”
National Economic Council Chair Kevin Hassett: “If you look at the Republican platform, the first listed trade policy is the Reciprocal Trade Act, which takes U.S. tariffs to the levels that our trading partners charge us… What happens to inflation? Well, what’s the next best supplier? What’s the cost ratio between them? And if we bring new stuff to the U.S., what’s the marginal effect of the marginal cost? Don’t forget that the tariff affects the price level when it goes in, not the long-run inflation rate… Basically, it’s a level adjustment.”
Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran: “In the real world, we have a one-sided free-trade policy in which America isn’t nearly as protectionist as other countries. Trump’s proposed tariffs could generate some $450B in revenue a year for the U.S. Isn’t it better to tax foreign entities for entering the American market than impose new taxes on American families? We [also] need targeted tariffs to lift such critical industries as defense. The U.S. relies heavily on imports to make the weapons and other material our military needs. This doesn’t make sense.”
White House Senior Trade Counselor Peter Navarro: “We put on significant tariffs on China, steel, aluminum, dishwashers, solar, a lot of increased countervailing duties to stop the dumping [in Trump’s first administration]. We had zero inflation from any of that. It never happened, and it’s the same movie this time. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, where we run a Federal Reserve that prints too much money, and they do that to accommodate fiscal irresponsibility.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Los Angeles wildfires blaze on, strong winds to intensify this week.
Enforceable? Crude oil spikes on ‘more serious’ Russia sanctions.
Biden criticizes Meta (META); Zuckerberg slams Apple (AAPL).
Medical Properties (MPW) tenant files for bankruptcy protection.
SA Asks: Is Honda Motor (HMC) too late to the EV party?
White House delays order for Nippon to end U.S. Steel (X) bid.
Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin (BORGN) calls off rocket launch debut.
C-3PO dreams: Tesla (TSLA) aims to sell humanoid robots next year.
The next big biotech deal? J&J (JNJ) is working on a $10B bid.
Amazon (AMZN) ends DEI programs; Apple (AAPL) might be next.
TikTok ban: Supreme Court skeptical of free speech arguments.
Today’s Economic Calendar
No events scheduled
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