Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines did well while India and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are doing moderately well. Denmark, France, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Italy and Saudi Arabia are up; Turkey and Hungary are down. Index futures in the States point to a flat open for the S&P and a moderate up open for the Nasdaq.
————— VIDEO: The Market Has Mixed Signals —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Going abroad
There has been a lot of pessimism about Europe, given stalling growth, rising costs, tariff threats and the war in Ukraine. Former economic engine Germany has stagnated for two consecutive years and things don’t look much better in France, Italy, or elsewhere. Interestingly, European stock markets have performed well as of late, even beating the U.S. since the beginning of the year.
Snapshot: Increased military spending pushed the region’s defense stocks to all-time highs on Monday, while the STOXX Europe 600 Index (STOXX) has already climbed 8.6% in 2025, more than double the 4% return of the S&P 500 (SP500). Things look even better for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E), which is up more than 14% YTD, and even for France and Germany, where the CAC 40 (CAC:IND) and DAX (DAX:IND) are ahead by 10.4% and 12.4% YTD. This bullishness has surprised many, especially when many nations in Europe are mired in political volatility.
What’s going on? European central banks are expected to continue easing as the Federal Reserve stays on pause, while Ukraine ceasefire talks are underway, as well as a push toward stimulus in prior fiscally disciplined countries. European markets are also way smaller than the U.S., so even a little bit of diversification money being transferred there will show an outsized impact. At the recent World Economic Forum, BlackRock’s (BLK) Larry Fink called investment in Europe a counter-trade, saying, “Always go against Davos and you’ll make a lot of money.”
Elsewhere: Germans are going to the polls this weekend, with the CDU’s Friedrich Merz poised to be the next chancellor, though he may face a difficult time forming a governing majority due to the rise of Alternative for Germany (AfD). On the ballot are stances over migration, as well as economic malaise prompted by the loss of industry and cheap Russian energy. For investors, there also might be more of a spotlight on reforms to the Schuldenbremse, or debt brake, to finance structural investments for the economy. In terms of foreign markets, Seeking Alpha subscribers actually see more opportunity in India compared to other regions for investment, according to the latest SA Sentiment Survey, though Europe came in second place. Will the gains last?
What else is happening…
007 takeover: Amazon (AMZN) to make future James Bond films.
Citigroup (C) drops diversity goals, ‘DEI’ term after Trump order.
Beverage jolt: Celsius (CELH) skyrockets on Alani Nu deal.
Rivian (RIVN) posts first gross profit, but expects fewer EV deliveries.
Nissan turns to Tesla (TSLA) after Honda fallout; rating cut to junk.
GameStop’s (GME) Ryan Cohen ups Alibaba (BABA) stake to $1B.
Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI roll out its AI agent Operator.
Walmart’s (WMT) executives downplay deflated guidance.
Cruise operators face rough waters under Trump administration.
Disney’s (DIS) ESPN, Major League Baseball decide to part ways.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:45 AM PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM Quarterly Services Report
11:30 AM Fed’s Jefferson Speech
11:30 AM Fed’s Daly Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were very weak. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines suffered big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. Turkey, South Africa, Finland, Spain, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are up; Hungary is down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Market Has Mixed Signals —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Direct payments
Remember the “stimmy” checks sent during the pandemic? They might be making a comeback… in a different form. The idea of a “DOGE dividend” first surfaced on social media by Azoria CEO James Fishback and was later pitched to the White House by Elon Musk. President Trump likes the idea, referring to the recent numbers coming from DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts as “incredible.”
The proposal: Should DOGE be able to cut $2T from the federal budget, the government could use 20% of those savings to send 79M American households (that pay federal income tax) a check for $5,000. Another “20% would go towards paying down debt” as the “top DOGE priority remains reducing the deficit to stop inflation and lower interest rates.” The new scheme would also “incentivize Americans to report ‘waste, fraud and abuse’ to DOGE” to hit the $2T savings target.
Musk has already acknowledged that $2T will be hard to hit, and it appears that the value of some contracts and real estate entries posted to DOGE’s “Wall Of Receipts” are not necessarily savings. The total amount saved thus far is listed as $55B, though some of those contracts stipulate the maximum price tag that can be awarded and are not necessarily indicative of the amount spent. Savings listed on things like “fraud detection/deletion” and “workforce reductions” are also estimated and may not denote final numbers.
Fine print: DOGE dividends would be funded by the money that’s cut or defunded from prior funds allocated by Congress, setting up a situation that would likely involve wrangling over the Impoundment Control Act of 1974. It restricts a president from withholding funds that were appropriated on Capitol Hill, but its constitutionality could be appealed to the Supreme Court. The law may also be amended by Congress, or rescissions (canceled funds) could return to the Republican-controlled Congress, which would then have 45 days to decide on their fate.
What else is happening…
FOMC minutes: Officials considered trade, immigration impacts.
Pulling the plug: EV maker Nikola (NKLA) goes bankrupt.
Apple (AAPL) unveils a new ‘more affordable’ iPhone 16e.
Hegseth spending memo dings shares of Palantir (PLTR).
Beyond Meat (BYND) in talks to help shore up liquidity.
Top Medicare job? Dr. Oz to divest interests in these stocks.
Outpacing Boeing (BA), Airbus eyes more deliveries in 2025.
NYC congestion pricing fight after Trump pulls approval.
Carvana’s (CVNA) rally stalls following news of share sale.
NFL’s 49ers said to explore 10% stake sale at $9B valuation.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
09:35 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:05 PM Fed’s Musalem Speech
02:30 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
05:00 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. China and South Korea did well; Australia and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are down big. Denmark is up, but the UK, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— Audio Course: Guidelines to Successful Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The ETF crown
Products tracking the S&P 500 (SP500) make up a good percentage of investor portfolios – and for good reason. The benchmark index just closed at a fresh record high and has returned more than 20% annually over the past two years. While there are many ways to gain exposure to the S&P 500, many have been focusing on the cheapest ways to do so, especially with popular ETFs.
Case in point: The first-ever U.S.-listed ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), was just topped by its arch-rival in terms of assets under management. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had nearly $632B in AUM, compared to the $630B of SPY, according to calculations as of Tuesday. Not far behind is the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), which has $609B of assets under management based on its share count.
What happened? Investors and financial advisors are getting more price-conscious, especially in the era of DIY investing. The low-cost Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and BlackRock’s iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) feature an expense ratio of just 0.03%, compared with the 0.095% expense ratio of State Street’s SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). The first two have also recorded inflows of $115B and $87B, respectively, in 2024, compared with the $17B in inflows for SPY. State Street does offer the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPLG), with an expense ratio of just 0.02%, which is more catered to buy-and-hold investors and can also be helpful for those who have a smaller portfolio.
Why would one opt for SPY? Name-brand and founder status have been associated with the ETF, as well as better liquidity and spreads for trading and options. But times are indeed changing. The S&P 500 ETF crown now belongs to Vanguard, which has been cutting its fees across the board. Earlier this month, the investment company announced the “largest ever expense ratio reduction,” which will impact 87 open-end mutual and exchange-traded funds and “save Vanguard’s investors more than $350M in 2025 alone.”
What else is happening…
Trump plans 25% tariffs targeting cars, chips and pharma imports.
Ukraine talks: Second summit in France, U.S.-Russia diplomatic reset.
Nike (NKE) rallies on new brand with Kim Kardashian’s SKIMS.
A new Berkshire? Bill Ackman announces a transformational deal.
J&J (JNJ) bankruptcy hearing for talc lawsuits kicks off in Texas.
Childhood vaccine schedules, psychiatric drugs on RFK Jr.’s radar.
Intel split? Chip stocks gain as TSM, Broadcom (AVGO) mull deals.
Chevron’s (CVX) Venezuela oil exports are under U.S. review.
Elon Musk, DOGE score win against states seeking to block access.
Down 6%… then up 6%: Roller coaster ride for Argentine stocks.
New Zealand gets another 50-bp rate cut, more easing expected.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM E-Commerce Retail Sales
01:00 PM Results of $16B, 20-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM FOMC Minutes
05:00 PM Fed’s Jefferson Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines posted gains; China and Australia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. Denmark, Poland, South Africa, Spain, Italy, Israel and Saudi Arabia are leading. Index futures in the States point to a moderate up open for the cash market.
————— Audio Course: Guidelines to Successful Trading —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Prices and production
It’s not easy to decide oil strategy in the current climate. Fresh reports over the weekend suggested that OPEC+ delegates were considering a delay in restoring output, before they were denied by major producer Russia. While OPEC+ members meet monthly to set quotas for crude production, there will be more on the table next time around with oil (CL1:COM) recently giving up all its gains seen since the beginning of the year.
Crude reality: A promise by President Trump to “drill, baby, drill” will continue to see America produce more crude than any country on record, while the threat of tariffs on global growth has also weighed on prices. It’s despite new sanctions on nations like Iran and commitments by the U.S. to cut the oil exports of the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, many big countries like China and India are still getting their crude from shadow fleets, and members within OPEC+ have pumped more than their official quotas in a test that can challenge the cartel’s unity.
OPEC+ is currently cutting 5.85M barrels per day, which is about 5.7% of global supply, and in December, the group extended its latest cuts through the first quarter of 2025. It marked the latest delay due to weaker demand and increasing outside supply, but some members are getting antsy, like the United Arab Emirates. It feels that it has done more of the heavy lifting amid a campaign for higher quotas, and any new delays could be met with resistance.
SA commentary: “There’s a lot of spare capacity that can be deployed into this market,” TD Wealth writes in Will Trump’s Calls For OPEC To Lower Oil Prices Work? “I think OPEC doesn’t really want to do that because they know a 10%, let’s say, increase in supply would cause more than a percent reduction in price. And that would not necessarily be accretive for the revenue side for them. So, I think they’re going to play it by ear, see how things go, and keep the market as balanced as they possibly can.”
What else is happening…
Australia’s central bank cuts rates for the first time since 2020.
Delta (DAL) plane crashes at Toronto airport, injuring at least 15.
Trump’s top economic advisor plans to regularly meet Fed’s Powell.
Beyond Sci-Fi: What investors need to know about humanoid robots.
Board autonomy? OpenAI mulls special voting rights to block hostile bids.
Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) soars on DeepSeek integration in WeChat.
Paid content: Reddit (RDDT) confirms plan to launch paywall this year.
Amazon (AMZN) workers in North Carolina vote against joining union.
AppLovin (APP) post-earnings rally fuels sky-high valuation debate.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy wants a European army, defense stocks rise.
Honda (HMC) open to reviving merger talks if Nissan CEO exits.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
10:20 AM Fed’s Daly Speech
01:00 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
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