Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned down. India and Thailand did well; China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Finland, Portugal and Sweden are down the most. Index futures in the States point to a gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down slightly. Oil and copper are down small amounts. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Who will emerge victorious?
The contract for the U.S. Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter jet will reportedly be decided this morning. President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will deliver remarks at 11 AM ET, and rumor is that it will include the next-generation warplane to replace the F-22 Raptor. The winner of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program will likely be awarded an initial $20B for the engineering and manufacturing development phase, with hundreds of billions of dollars more in orders as the fighters hit production lines by the end of the decade.
It’s a big deal: The new fighter won’t just be a jet, but an entire connected family of systems. It will feature armed drone wingmen known as collaborative combat aircraft (CCA), which will be controlled by the pilot (and AI!) for counterair missions, air-to-air strikes, and attacking ground-based targets. The stealth design remains under wraps, but is thought to include composite materials vs. metal alloys for advanced cooling (thermal cloaking?), as well as a new adaptive cycle engine from either Pratt & Whitney (RTX) or GE Aerospace (GE), which can automatically switch between high-thrust and performance mode for extended range.
The design for unmanned wingmen comes as some, like presidential adviser Elon Musk, question the effectiveness of crewed high-end fighters in the age of drones. “We are not going to go from a fleet of F-35s, B-21s, B-52s [and] F-15EXs to tomorrow, everything unmanned,” Representative Rob Wittman (R-VA), Vice Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said in December. “[Going] completely from crewed to uncrewed, I think, is still years in the future. But the learning curve is going to be, how do we incorporate uncrewed aircraft.”
The contenders: Defense industry stalwarts Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) have been going head-to-head in the competition. A win for Boeing, maker of the FA-18 Super Hornet and F15-EX Eagle, could mark a turn in its fortunes. The company has been plagued by operational issues and safety failures, and might be able to offer better prices for the cost-conscious Trump administration. For Lockheed, it can add to its extensive track record of 5th-generation fighters like the F-35 and F-22, and further bolster its future. Northrop Grumman (NOC) was also once a contestant, but bowed out due to its focus on the sixth-generation B-21 Raider bomber, as well as the Navy’s version of NGAD, known as F/A-XX.
What else is happening…
Triple-witching event: About $4.5T in options contracts set to expire.
Nike (NKE) slides on weak guidance amid tariffs, macro headwinds.
Boston Celtics sold for $6.1B, the highest ever for a U.S. sports team.
Commerce Secretary Lutnick touts Tesla (TSLA) as shares struggle.
Trump signs executive order to boost U.S. critical mineral production.
Heathrow Airport closed after substation fire causes power outage.
IT contractors decline on Accenture’s (ACN) warning, Pentagon cuts.
FedEx (FDX) lowers guidance on continued economic weakness.
GM (GM), Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF) look to deepen their partnership.
Florida lawmakers weigh property tax reforms, including ending them.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:05 AM Fed’s Williams Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia and Singapore did well; China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Turkey is up, but Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Finland, Norway, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Breadth is Slightly Improving —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Embodied AI
A new “iPhone moment” is being hailed by the robotics industry, with a powerful era underway for manufacturing and domestic assistance. “When, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, is not five years away, this is a few years away,” Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang said this week at the GTC conference. The company, along with others, already has a lot of skin in the game, with its RTX GPUs powering bots and the firm’s coming Isaac GR00T N1 serving as a generalist foundation model.
Next generation: As the staple of any sci-fi movie in the past, humanoid robots are now moving closer to reality due to advances in artificial general intelligence. It’s part of what is being called “embodied AI,” which harnesses AI technology inside of hardware – in this case a robot that can carry out real-world functions. Up until recently, most bots relied on code to perform their tasks, which limited their applications. The promise of AI will allow them to learn new jobs by reasoning and imitation, or eventually identifying and solving situations like a human by “generalizing across common tasks.”
“We know very clearly that the world has severe shortages of human laborers, human workers,” Huang continued. Humanoid robots never need to take a day off, can work around the clock, and are able to be used in multiple settings. That includes the workforce, like in factory environments or the assembly line, as well as the home, for tasks such as vacuuming, folding laundry, doing dishes, and even companionship.
In the race: One of the biggest known players is Tesla’s (TSLA) Optimus, which Elon Musk has called the “biggest product in history” with plans to produce up to 1M units by 2027 (could it help reignite the stock?). Another U.S.-based player is Brett Adcock’s Figure AI, which is backed by Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI. The company’s bots are geared toward manual labor tasks like logistics and warehousing, and have already been deployed in BMW factories. Others out there include Atlas by Boston Dynamics and Phoenix by Sanctuary AI, as well as Chinese bots like Unitree’s G1, CyberOne by Xiaomi and UBTECH’s Walker S1, so be on the lookout for more industry partnerships and innovation.
What else is happening…
Post-FOMC: Stocks close higher, SA analysts weigh in on meeting.
Trump calls on Fed to cut rates as tariffs ‘ease’ into the economy.
SA Asks: Which cybersecurity firms could be takeover targets?
Boeing (BA) takes off on CFO’s upbeat remarks about cash flow.
Chevron (CVX) CEO seeks more time to wind down in Venezuela.
Dakota Access: Greenpeace on the hook for hundreds of millions.
General Mills (GIS) falls on snacking slowdown, food peers dip.
Here are the reports on AI hyperscaler CoreWeave’s (CRWV) IPO.
NCAA March Madness tip-off: Watch these sports betting stocks.
Trump to sign order directing Department of Education shutdown.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Philly Fed Business Outlook
08:30 AM Current Account
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy FOMC Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. South Korea, India, Indonesia and Thailand did well; Taiwan, Australia and Malaysia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. South Africa is up. Turkey is down 7%; Germany, the UAE, Greece, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are also down. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Breadth is Slightly Improving —————
The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
FOMC meeting
If the Fed Chair is not in a rush to tinker with monetary policy, you probably shouldn’t be in a rush to tinker with your portfolio. There has been a lot of panic in recent weeks due to the market correction on Wall Street, but it’s important to stay rooted to what the numbers say for themselves as opposed to the latest fearful or worrisome projections. There’s no better way to see that than what Powell said the day before the current Fed blackout period, with the message likely to be reiterated this afternoon as the central bank captain takes the stage at 2:30 PM ET.
Quote: “Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to be in a good place. The labor market is solid, and inflation has moved closer to our 2% longer-run goal,” Powell told the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum on Mar. 7. “Sentiment readings have not been a good predictor of consumption growth in recent years. We continue to carefully monitor a variety of indicators of household and business spending.”
“Looking ahead, the new Administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy. While there have been recent developments in some of these areas, especially trade policy, uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high. As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves. We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
Thought bubble: Despite some turbulent stock trading, all of the indicators that the Federal Reserve is watching appear to be holding up just fine. The unemployment rate remains low, wages are growing faster than inflation, the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, and the quits rate has moved below pre-pandemic levels. At the end of the day, those are the factors that will determine the trajectory of monetary policy, as well as the central bank’s updated dot plot and economic projections.
What else is happening…
General Motors (GM) deepens partnership with Nvidia (NVDA).
Tesla (TSLA) removed from the 2025 Vancouver Auto Show.
Starliner astronauts splash down, ending nine-month space saga.
SA Asks: How will the $32B Wiz deal impact Google (GOOGL)?
Trump dismisses two Democratic commissioners at the FTC.
Trade war: Italy’s Meloni warns EU against retaliatory tariffs.
Nasdaq plans regional HQ in Dallas amid financial shift to Texas.
Activist Starboard preparing for proxy fight at Autodesk (ADSK).
Turkish stock market plunges, lira falls as Erdogan rival arrested.
What the White House, Kremlin said about the Trump-Putin call.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM FOMC Announcement
02:30 PM Fed Chair Press Conference
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did great. Japan, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand led while New Zealand and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are leading; Israel and Saudi Arabia are weak. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Breadth is Slightly Improving —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Gold rush
Just five weeks ago, Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast ran a poll on whether gold was a buy at current levels as the shiny metal neared $2,900/oz. Bullishness won out in the survey, and bullishness was delivered. Gold (XAUUSD:CUR) closed above the $3K level for the first time on Friday, and continues to extend its historic rally, up another 1% overnight to $3,026/oz.
Note: The WSB polls continue each week, so stay on top of the latest results, like yesterday’s question on the future trajectory of Nvidia (NVDA) following the recent stock selloff.
What’s driving the gold rally? Only one quarter into the year, the yellow metal is up 15% YTD. It’s prompting Wall Street to continue increasing its price targets on bullion, with UBS becoming the latest to raise projections as investors seek safety amid geopolitical and tariff risks. Those aren’t the only factors, with global central banks ramping up purchases to diversify their reserves amid concerns over growth, inflation and deficit expansion.
Where to gain exposure? “What about the miners? HUI, the Gold Bugs Index, is +29% since Jan. 1!,” Miners to the Moon writes in the newest gold article on Seeking Alpha. “Stick to the underlying!” small supernova responds. “The miners have a) operating costs going up in tandem with the metal, and b) all the operational and political risks; and specific company risk, and c) they’ve historically been terrible stewards of capital. Just play the metal. Use leverage and/or derivatives on the metal (easy, cheap and liquid) if you want extra juice akin to the miners.”
What else is happening…
Investing and gambling? Robinhood (HOOD) expands trading offerings.
BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) hits record after unveiling ultra-fast EV chargers.
Israel launches strikes in Gaza after hostage negotiations collapse.
SA Maps: Tracking benchmark interest rates around the world.
PepsiCo’s (PEP) Poppi deal is on-brand with its aggressive M&A strategy.
Tesla (TSLA) slides as questions about Cybertruck quality crop up again.
Alphabet (GOOGL) in talks to buy Wiz, spins off laser-based internet firm.
Bombardier (OTCQX:BDRBF) CEO warns Canada about F-35 review.
Dutch politician warns of debt crisis risk from EU’s defense spending plan.
Wholesale egg prices drop, but grocery bills could take time to catch up.
Which beaten down stocks have the best chance for a quick rebound?
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits
08:30 AM Import/Export Prices
09:15 AM Industrial Production
01:00 PM Results of $13B, 20-Year Bond Auction
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did great. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia and Singapore led while New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Denmark, Poland, the UAE, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Portugal and Austria are leading. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
New baseline
It has been difficult tracking all of the latest tariff threats and where trade policy is currently standing, but somewhat of a clearer direction is now being dictated by the Trump administration. It’s a twofold goal, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on CBS’s Face the Nation, stating recent actions are not aimed specifically at Canada, Mexico and the EU, but at “everybody.”
1) “There are critical industries like aluminum, steel, semiconductors and automobile manufacturing that [President Trump] rightfully believes the U.S. needs to have a domestic capability, and the way you protect those industries and build that capability is by ensuring there are economic incentives to produce in the U.S. We have de-industrialized the United States of America. There are things we can no longer make to be safe as a country and in order to have jobs. That’s why we had a Rust Belt and suffered the loss of all these important jobs that once sustained entire communities – wiped out by trade that basically sent these factories, jobs and industrial capability to other places. That cannot and will not continue. This is going to happen now.”
2) “President [Trump] rightfully believes the balance of global trade is completely off-kilter. For 30 or 40 years we have allowed countries to treat us unfairly in global trade, much of it during the Cold War, because we wanted them to be rich and prosperous because they were our allies, but now that has to change… I understand why these countries don’t like it. The status quo of trade benefits them, they like the status quo. We don’t like the status quo. We are going to put tariffs on countries reciprocal to what they put on us. And then, from that new baseline of fairness and reciprocity, we will engage – potentially – in bilateral negotiations with countries around the world on new trade arrangements that make sense for both sides.”
No doubt there has been a hollowing out of America’s industrial base toward manufacturing that has moved overseas. The question has been explored by successive U.S. administrations, though it hasn’t been at the top of the economic platform due to stances like transitioning to more of a service-based economy, prioritizing environmental regulations, billions of dollars in subsidies, and the tangible benefits of cheaper goods from globalization. That all changed following the disruptions seen during the pandemic and sanctions related to the war in Ukraine, giving Trump the opportunity to apply his principles stronger and harder than during his first term in office.
The Art of the Deal: While there are big disagreements over how to shore up American industry and manufacturing, much of Trump’s strategy playbook has been transplanted from the world of real estate to international trade. That includes his negotiating style of “aiming very high, and then pushing and pushing to get what I’m after” and “sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition.” It also involves getting press by doing things that are a “little outrageous, or bold or controversial,” but most importantly, making sure that there is leverage. “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.” Take the WSB survey
What else is happening…
‘Corrections are healthy’ and ‘not worried about the markets’ – Bessent.
French PM: EU may have mistakenly targeted American bourbon.
Fast-fashion retailer Forever 21 files for bankruptcy for second time.
SA Asks: Which chipmakers would be impacted by CHIPS repeal?
Joby (JOBY), Virgin Atlantic partner to bring flying taxis to the U.K.
Canada eyes alternatives for Lockheed’s (LMT) F-35 fighter jets.
White House looking closely at Oracle (ORCL) deal to operate TikTok.
SpaceX capsule docks to rescue stranded Starliner astronauts.
Gold reaches new record settlement, but meets resistance at $3,000.
Red Sea: U.S. strikes Yemen, Trump warns Iran on Houthi support.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Retail Sales
08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
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