Good morning. Happy Friday. Happy Employment Numbers Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets got hit hard. Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines suffered the biggest losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently getting hit. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are down big. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down big. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Ticking down
The bloodbath in the markets yesterday hit companies far and wide, though one popular tech firm is still getting a lot of love. The bidders for Chinese-owned TikTok (BDNCE) are piling up ahead of a Saturday deadline to reach a deal for the short-form video app or risk being banned in the U.S. Even if a full deal is not announced, a framework for one will likely be put in place, and Trump could direct the DOJ not to enforce a ban so the app stores of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOGL) wouldn’t be punished for downloads.
Flashback: In his first term, it was Trump who sought to ban TikTok and force a sale of its U.S. business to an American company, and while a transaction with Oracle (ORCL) almost went through in 2020, the lawsuits piled up and an injunction was granted to prevent the app from being outlawed. The Biden administration later revoked the planned ban, but their positions on the matter subsequently reversed following a national security review. President Biden signed the PAFACA Act last April, which effectively banned TikTok in the U.S. by 2025 (unless it was divested), while Trump later vowed to “save TikTok in America” on the campaign trail and extended the deadline when he took office.
Meet the bidders for TikTok, which has 170M users in the United States:
Larry Ellison’s Oracle
Andreessen Horowitz and Blackstone
Amazon / Microsoft / AppLovin
Frank McCourt, Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary and Reddit’s Alexis Ohanian
OnlyFans founder Tim Stokely’s startup
AI search startup Perplexity AI
Former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin
Video platform Rumble
Tech group led by YouTuber MrBeast and Roblox CEO
What’s at stake? In terms of fair competition, China does not allow any U.S. social media companies to operate in the country, though there are additional forces at play. They revolve around the significant policy shift in how to deal with Beijing and the evaluation of what capabilities should be ascribed to the CCP. What started as a crusade against intellectual property theft has morphed into accusations of mass surveillance and algorithmic propaganda manipulation to influence an entire generation of American youth. Unfair practices and trade are also center stage, with Trump stating he could relax hefty tariff rates on China in order to get a TikTok deal done.
What else is happening…
Trump open to tariff negotiations if offered something ‘phenomenal.’
Nonfarm payrolls to provide hard data in sea of uncertainty.
Flight to safety: US10Y falls below 4%; eyes on Fed’s Powell.
Russell 2000 is first major U.S. stock index to enter bear market.
Top 10: These Nasdaq 100 holdings have fallen the hardest.
Stock market crash: Ed Yardeni sees ‘great buying opportunities.’
Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) halts U.S. orders for Mexican-built SUVs.
Soybeans seen as most affected among U.S. grains by tariffs.
Elon Musk’s X could be fined $1B+ for breaching EU’s DSA law.
Canadian PM Carney hits U.S. auto sector with retaliatory tariffs.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Employment Situation
11:25 AM Jerome Powell Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
12:45 PM Fed’s Waller Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets got hit hard. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines suffered the biggest losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently getting hit. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, the UAE, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic are all down. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is down huge. Oil and copper are down big. Gold and silver are down big. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Trade at the top
Tariff news continues to dominate the headlines after President Trump unveiled the largest set of tariff increases seen in a century or more. There have been plenty of references to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, but the presidential era that Trump has seemingly modeled his economic platform after occurred in the 1890s. At the time, William McKinley was making waves from the White House, and the 25th president continues to be referenced in many of Trump’s speeches, media interviews and even his inaugural address.
The similarities: “I am a tariff man, standing on a tariff platform,” McKinley declared on the presidential campaign trail in 1896, appealing to America’s core manufacturing base and dominant industrial states. It followed decades of his work in Congress that culminated in the McKinley Tariff of 1890, which raised the tariffs on most imported manufactured goods to around 50%, as well as the 1897 Dingley Tariff when he assumed the presidency.
Mckinley also oversaw a period of American expansionism, from the annexation of Hawaii to territories like Puerto Rico and Guam, aligning with Trump’s current view of taking Greenland, the Panama Canal, and making Canada the 51st U.S. state. A crackdown on illegal immigration further mirrors McKinley’s stance of “securing the United States from invasion by the debased and criminal classes of the old world… against all such our gates must be tightly closed.”
Economically speaking, Trump has pointed to the 1890s as an era when the U.S. ran a massive surplus and “didn’t know what to do with all of the money we were making.” As they did then, and still do today, economists debate the impact of tariffs, especially in different periods for the economy, such as rapid industrialization or integrated globalized supply chains, and their relation to federal government spending as a share of GDP. Before McKinley was assassinated in 1901, he also discussed the value of “reciprocity treaties” and opening more trade with the outside world once the U.S. had “produce[d] beyond our domestic consumption… under the domestic policy now firmly established” (i.e. no deficits).
Outlook: Whether McKinley’s stances helped the markets, or whether they align with Trump in the modern age, might be just as controversial as they were then. One thing that’s certain is that Trump is out to remake the U.S. economy and the world trading system. “In the coming days, there will be complaints from the globalists, the outsourcers, and special interests, and the fake news,” he declared from the Rose Garden. “Never forget every prediction our opponents made about trade over the last thirty years has been totally wrong. They were wrong about NAFTA, they were wrong about China, they were wrong about the Trans-Pacific Partnership. In my first term, they said tariffs would crash the economy, instead, we build the greatest economy in the history of the world.”
What else is happening…
Treasury Secretary Bessent advises countries not to retaliate.
Amazon (AMZN) prepares to launch initial Kuiper satellites.
Boeing (BA) CEO tells Senate: Focus is on safety, not speed.
Four EV charging firms to create Europe’s largest network.
Fed rate-cut odds for May jump amid trade war.
Chip stocks tumble despite dodging latest tariffs.
Meta’s (META) Zuckerberg lobbying to escape FTC trial.
Trump Media (DJT) registers shares for potential sale.
Amazon (AMZN), AppLovin (APP) join race for TikTok.
… while White House nears endorsing this investor group.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods and Services
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
09:45 AM PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM ISM Service Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
12:30 PM Fed’s Jefferson Speech
02:30 PM Fed’s Cook Speech
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. India, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines did well; India and South Korea were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently weak. The UK, Denmark, France, Turkey, Germany, South Africa, France, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are down the most. Only Israel is up much. Futures in the States point towards a relatively big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Tariff time
It’s finally here. President Trump’s “Make America Wealthy Again Event” will take place in the Rose Garden at 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, which will be closely watched by investors and the business community. Uncertainty has plagued markets over the past month and a half, so even if things are drastic, the clarity might provide some relief. The event will allow companies to begin planning for the new tariff regime and factor the duties into their supply chains or models.
‘Liberation Day’: There has been a whole slew of reports of what will and won’t be included in today’s announcement. So far, the Trump administration has revealed that tariffs will “start with all countries” and will be “effective immediately.” There might also be a range of rates that are dependent on trade barriers or taxation levels, with the caps applied to either specific or groups of countries. Besides the new tariffs, “25% levies on cars not made in the U.S.” and “secondary tariffs on nations that purchase crude oil from Venezuela” are set to go into effect this week, and there might be more details on those fronts as well.
While around half of the 3,000 respondents to the latest Wall Street Breakfast survey think the current setup of international trade is unfair, only a quarter feel that tariffs represent the right strategy to put it back on track. On the corporate side, companies have been planning to respond to the tariffs in five different ways, or a combination of the following approaches.
1) Reshoring or boosting U.S. production activity ==> Johnson & Johnson’s recent $55B investment
2) Pushing suppliers to reduce prices ==> Walmart with Chinese manufacturers
3) Raising prices to preserve profit margins ==> Target’s warning for shoppers
4) Absorbing the tariffs with lower margins ==> Latest guidance from Nike and FedEx
5) Lobbying for certain exemptions to limit their impact ==> Pursued by U.S. automakers
Market reaction? Watch futures and after-hours trading activity as Trump’s announcement will take place after the market close, though the White House has referred to the recent selloff as only a “snapshot in time.” “There has been a lot of talk about the market, and it was up yesterday,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declared at her latest briefing. “The President wants to make sure all Americans make out well, particularly Main Street. That’s the focus of these tariffs, but like I’ve said repeatedly, just like they were in his first term, Wall Street will be just fine.”
What else is happening…
Tepid IPO? CoreWeave (CRWV) soars on third day of trading.
Princeton considers $320M bond sale amid funding freeze.
Visa, Amex vie to swipe Apple credit card from Mastercard.
TikTok’s (BDNCE) fate hangs in the balance as deadline nears.
Tesla (TSLA) deliveries on watch amid ‘Tesla Takedown’ protests.
ChatGPT usage said to hit record after rollout of Ghibli effect.
Moody’s goes big! Recession odds now at 40% for 2025.
Report: Republicans are eyeing a $25,000 SALT cap.
USDC-USD stablecoin issuer Circle files for long-awaited IPO.
Germany deploys first permanent brigade abroad since WW2.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 AM ADP Jobs Report
10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
04:30 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Thailand led while India was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria are leading. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A lot of growling
The S&P 500 (SP500) turned slightly higher to close Monday in the green, but overall, it was a tough month for stocks and a bruising quarter. President Trump has finally settled on a “country-based” tariff plan, which will be announced as part of “Liberation Day” festivities in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. It’s not the only excitement this week, with macro investors keeping an eye on the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, along with a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that morning.
Bigger picture: Even before the latest tariff drama heated up, some popular trades were beginning to be unwound. That was especially true for Big Tech and the artificial intelligence boom, which showed no sign of slowing down over the past two years. The rally really got ahead of itself in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, when many asset classes turned on their nitrous burners, so it may not come as such a surprise that a pullback was in the cards.
It also hit the Magnificent 7, whose heavy weighting represents about a third of the benchmark S&P 500 Index. Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) began faltering in December, while Tesla (TSLA) joined the downtrend that month as well. Nvidia’s (NVDA) last all-time high also came on Jan. 6, which was several weeks before the DeepSeek selloff. Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) would later experience a blowout in early February, but before the broader market began a descent into correction territory and terms like “recession” and “stagflation” were making their rounds in the headlines. See movement since the last highs
Outlook: The jury is still out over the timing of a recovery, but other asset classes are doing well in the meantime. Gold and other metals are notching new records, while sectors like healthcare, utilities, financials, and consumer staples also inked gains during the first quarter of the year. Still worried about direction and volatility? Check out the SWAN (Sleep Well At Night) strategy from SA Investing Group Leader Financially Free Investor.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Split on trade, less on tariffs.
Gold notches new record on more safe-haven buying.
M&A Snapshot: Rocket to buy Mr. Cooper (COOP) for $9.4B.
Political chaos in France as Le Pen banned from election.
King of all media? Google’s YouTube may be worth $550B.
Newsmax (NMAX) soars 723% in volatile market debut.
Trump Media (DJT) is first company to join NYSE Texas.
Intel CEO outlines vision, seeks ‘brutally honest’ feedback.
J&J’s (JNJ) talc bankruptcy plan fails for a third time.
Amazon (AMZN) restarts Prime Air drone deliveries.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:00 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets got hit hard. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Thailand posted big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are down the most. Index futures in the States point to a relatively big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: What is Gold Trying to Tell Us —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Taxes and duties
Investors will close out a disappointing March later today, with all major stock indexes tumbling this month on unpredictable trade policy and growing tariff uncertainty. Markets don’t like unpredictability and uncertainty, especially ahead of “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when large-scale tariffs are supposed to go into effect. If a narrower stance is taken, or the policies represent final plans before trade negotiations, stocks could rally in April, especially with the S&P 500 (SP500) and tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP:IND) down 9% and 14%, respectively, from recent all-time highs.
Snapshot: Taxation, which can be divided into what is “earned,” “bought,” and “owned,” has been a point of contention between the U.S. and its trading partner. While the Biden administration put a bigger focus on what is “earned,” like the global minimum corporation tax and digital services tax, the Trump administration has its eyes set on the “bought” part of the equation. This can be further divided into two separate categories: 1) “duties” – which involve fees on goods shipped across borders, and 2) “consumption taxes” – which are usually collected as a sales tax or value-added tax depending on the locale.
While there is a lot of confusion surrounding the second grouping, sales tax and VAT serve the same purpose despite being calculated differently. Sales tax is only paid by the final consumer, with businesses along the supply chain typically receiving exemption certificates, while VAT is calculated at each step of the production cycle, with the final burden also falling on the end consumer as they cannot deduct the inputs like businesses. What makes things sticky is if the percentage of VAT/sales tax is more expensive or cheaper in one region over another, which can result in different final price tags on imported/exported items, along with a slew of other labor inputs and market conditions.
Go deeper: In the U.S., sales tax is collected by the states and not the federal government, making it an ineffective mechanism to govern international trade policy. Instead, President Trump is trying to leverage the use of tariffs, whose power is also consolidated in the executive branch. It makes them an immediate and effective tool that can be utilized at a moment’s notice, and can result in direct discussions as opposed to slower trade deals, domestic subsidies, or other things that have to make their long way through Congress. The goal here is to protect American industries, reshore manufacturing, and serve as a source of government revenue, though only time will tell how tariffs will play out for U.S. businesses and the economy. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Report: Apple (AAPL) preparing its largest push into health.
CoreWeave (CRWV) IPO flop: What went wrong?
CK Hutchison not signing Panama ports deal this week.
Gold crosses $3,100 for best quarterly gain in 38 years.
Trump says TikTok (BDNCE) deal to close before deadline.
Elon Musk’s xAI buys X. Tesla (TSLA) shorts make $10B YTD.
Chinese tech stocks slip into correction territory.
An end to Norway’s wealth fund ban on defense stocks?
Trump expresses strong frustration with Russia.
Crude oil: OPEC+ gets ready for a production boost.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
03:00 PM Farm Prices
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