Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted were split. China, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan did well; Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Singappore did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are partly closed and partly leaning to the downside. Denmark and Portugal are up; Germany, Italy, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down big. Oil and copper up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Buckle up?
Get ready for the coming flood of corporate earnings, with the big banks ready to kick off the festivities. It comes as the trade war is at the top of mind for investors, with many a portfolio seeing volatile moves in recent weeks. Just how much influence this earnings season will have on markets is up for debate, with half of Wall Street Breakfast subscribers saying it won’t have much of an impact.
Snapshot: For Q1 itself, after two “beat and raise” quarters in a row for large-cap banks, Morgan Stanley now expects a “meet and keep” quarter. Given the volatility in markets, “many investors wonder what will even matter this EPS season, as any positive prints will likely be seen as backward-looking and stable-ish outlooks may be met with skepticism,” wrote UBS analyst Erika Najarian.
Even if there is less of an influence on share prices, the big banks will provide an important snapshot of the economy. Non-interest revenue will detail the state of capital markets activity, while provisions for credit losses can provide a window into financial conditions. Consumer spending will also be in the spotlight, and don’t forget comments on the macro situation – like the recent Treasury market turmoil – from some of the biggest CEOs on Wall Street.
The bottom line: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said this week to “settle down and take a breath,” and the bank’s results will be one of the first out of the gate this morning. Earnings from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are also on tap and commentary there can show how they plan to navigate new uncertainty for divisions like lending, investment banking and capital markets. Will they also factor in a more hawkish Fed in 2025, which can impact expectations for closely watched net interest income?
What else is happening…
Stock roller coaster despite cooler CPI; Gold at new highs.
DOGE review: Hegseth slashes $5.1B in defense spending.
Intel (INTC) CEO’s China investments raise security concerns.
AI race: OpenAI said to cut down testing time for new models.
Google to deploy AI to speed up power grid interconnections.
EIA slashes outlook for oil price, demand from tariff uncertainty.
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) cuts cannabis ties after unit transfer.
Greenland takeover: Trump team eyes swaying public opinion.
FDA to phase out animal testing requirement, adopt AI methods.
Additional U.S. tariffs on China to affect Hollywood film imports.
Amazon (AMZN) CEO: Sellers will pass tariff costs on to shoppers.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
09:00 AM Fed’s Collins Speech
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM Fed’s Musalem Speech
11:00 AM Fed’s Williams Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted huge wins. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand rallied 4% or more. China, Hong Kong, New Zealand and the Philippines also did well. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and the Czech Republic are all participating. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down big. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The second largest economy
The U.S. trade war with the world has morphed into a trade war with China, though a universal tariff of 10% and other duties on autos and metals will remain (pending upcoming trade negotiations to take place over the next 90 days). The pivot by the Trump administration sent stocks soaring on Wednesday for their biggest day since 2008, but volatility is still likely to continue for markets. China was the only nation to “retaliate” to the latest salvo of tariffs, according to the White House, meaning its exports to the U.S. will now face steep levies of 125%, impacting things like consumer goods and the overall supply chain.
Quotes: “China is the most imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world, and they are the biggest source of U.S. trade problems with the rest of the world,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “This escalation is a loser for them. It’s unfortunate that the Chinese actually don’t want to come and negotiate, because they are the worst offenders in the international trading system. If China starts devaluing, then that is a tax on the rest of the world, and everyone will have to keep raising their tariffs to offset the devaluation.”
That hasn’t stopped Beijing, which has pledged to “fight to the end.” The PBOC already loosened its grip on the yuan to make exports cheaper, while increasing tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%. It has also imposed export controls on critical minerals like rare earths, used in the tech and defense industries, as well as targeting U.S. companies with probes and investigations. Meanwhile, more American firms have been added to the unreliable entities list, interventions have been present in financial markets to bolster prices, and there is a willingness to cut borrowing costs or even expand the fiscal deficit.
Toe to toe: While China’s biggest customer is the U.S., a trade war won’t cripple its economy despite struggles since the pandemic. China has been strongly preparing for this scenario since the U.S. attempted to rope off Russia from the rest of the world, and officials there see negotiations as blackmail and legitimizing the tariff blitz. As for President Trump, China has been singled out to send a message to other countries on potential retaliation. While he pushes the Chinese to come to the table, there is a bigger strategy of containment at play, as well as the ability to decouple amid an aggressive push towards American re-industrialization.
What else is happening…
Chinese sellers on Amazon mull price hikes or U.S. exit.
Constellation Brands (STZ) to divest mainstream wines.
Trump doesn’t want to see U.S. Steel (X) go to Japan.
WW International (WW) sinks on bankruptcy filing report.
U.S. Postal Service eyes raising stamp prices to 78 cents.
Australia won’t ‘join hands’ with China to counter U.S. tariffs.
EU mulls buying more U.S. gas, green transition still in focus.
White House backs off Nvidia (NVDA) H20 chip crackdown.
Alphabet’s Waymo on track to start mapping Tokyo streets.
Trump directs revival of U.S. shipbuilding, maritime capabilities.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
09:30 AM Fed’s Logan Speech
10:00 AM Fed’s Schmid Speech
10:00 AM Fed’s Bowman Speech
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
12:00 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Harker Speech
01:00 PM Results of $22B, 30-Year Bond Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Statement
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split with big movers in both directions. China, Hong Kong, Thailand and the Philippines did well; Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Malaysia and Singapore were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and the Czech Republic are all suffering big losses. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is unchanged.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Crude awakening
Stocks and bonds are continuing their wild swings as “Liberation Day” tariffs from the U.S. formally went into effect just after midnight. Those include varying rates, from universal tariffs of 10% to a whopping 104% levy on imported goods from China. Nearly every asset class has been impacted by the news, but one of the biggest stories coming out of the tariff drama is not getting as much attention.
Slippery out there: Oil prices have extended their recent slide, dropping firmly below the $60 per barrel mark. At the time of writing, WTI crude (CL1:COM) is down 4.3% to $57.02/bbl, which is nearly 30% lower than the $80/bbl seen just before President Trump took office. It also comes days after OPEC+ hiked output for the group, which prompted the Saudis to immediately cut prices after previously signaling a planned dividend cut from state-backed energy giant Saudi Aramco.
The news could hit other oil-based economies amid concerns about global energy demand. On the flip side, it might be a boon for consumer-driven economies, like the U.S., which can see lower prices at the pump during a time when there are fears about resurgent inflation. It’s also despite renewed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, with Goldman Sachs warning that Brent oil (CO1:COM) could even fall below $40 in an “extreme scenario” due to OPEC opening the taps and a worldwide GDP slowdown from American tariff policy.
Thought bubble: While trade negotiations could have happened earlier, President Trump likely wants countries to experience what the pain can look like before any agreements. That could give additional leverage in coming discussions and a stark reminder that he is set on his trade agenda at all costs. The maximalist position also grants the ability to see what countries across the globe can offer and then demand those favorable concessions from any number of trading partners.
What else is happening…
Fear gauge (VIX) ends above 50 for the first time since COVID crash.
Long-term Treasury yields surged due to unwinding of ‘basis trade.’
Peabody Energy (BTU) gets lift from Trump orders to boost coal.
Microsoft (MSFT) reclaims title of most valuable public company.
Apple (AAPL) selloff: Can iPhones be built in the United States?
FDIC to ease banks’ living will rules soon, acting chair says.
Micron (MU) to add tariff-related surcharge on products.
More tariffs: Elon Musk slams Trump’s trade adviser.
Pharma set to be targeted next. Drug stocks on watch.
Stock Market Meltdown: We Have 30 Days To Fix This.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:30 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
01:00 PM Results of $39B, 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM FOMC Minutes
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets are split with big movers in both directions. Japan, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines are up big, and Taiwan, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand are down big. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are all participating. Futures in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Robo Resources
Markets aren’t the only area experiencing some big swings. The way companies go about employment and hiring is also set for a shakeup. E-commerce software giant Shopify (SHOP) is out with a new memo stating that it will not bring aboard any new workers unless managers can prove artificial intelligence isn’t able to do the same job.
Quote: “Before asking for more Headcount and resources, teams must demonstrate why they cannot get what they want done using AI,” Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke wrote on X. “What would this area look like if autonomous AI agents were already part of the team? Frankly, I don’t think it’s feasible to opt out of learning the skill of applying AI in your craft; you are welcome to try, but I want to be honest – I cannot see this working out today, and definitely not tomorrow.”
Many companies are experimenting with AI, and how it can assist with productivity, but the new announcement shows just how far things can be taken in terms of replacing human workers. “Reflexive AI usage is now a baseline expectation at Shopify,” Lütke added, saying it applied to everyone at the company, including himself and other top brass. Shopify will also start to include AI usage in employee performance and peer reviews, with the technology set to “totally change Shopify, our work, and the rest of our lives.”
Outlook: While there are some questions about guardrails, it might just be the latest iteration of “move fast and break things” for the tech world. To help employees adapt to the new culture, Shopify is offering as many cutting-edge AI tools as possible, like Copilot, Cursor, and Claude code, as well as AI-powered chat platform chat.shopify.io. The company has also been active on the M&A front to boost productivity and its offerings, scooping up seven AI-focused startups over the past year, including the latest one – Vantage Discovery – which builds AI-powered search functions for retailers.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Not much of an impact from earnings season.
China pledges to ‘fight to the end’ against new U.S. tariffs.
US Steel (X) jumps as Trump orders fresh review of Nippon deal.
Tariffs: Levi’s (LEVI) loads up and Apple (AAPL) to source from India?
EPA and HHS to study fluoridization of public drinking water.
BlackRock’s (BLK) Fink sees ‘buying opportunity’ during market selloff.
Health insurers rally as CMS raises payment rates for Medicare plans.
Trump team weighs exporter tax credit as reciprocal tariffs loom.
Direct or indirect? U.S. set for talks with Iran over nuclear program.
Harvard University plans $750M bond sale amid funding threat.
SA Asks: Which retailers are best positioned for higher tariffs?
Today’s Economic Calendar
06:00 AM NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
11:00 AM Treasury Buyback Announcement
01:00 PM Results of $58B, 3-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
02:00 PM Fed’s Daly Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets got hit hard. Japan, China, South Korea, Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, and the Philippines suffered huge losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently getting hit. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are down big. Futures in the States point towards a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: A Warning About Holding Stocks During a Downtrend —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Next steps
There is absolute carnage out there. Markets across the globe are in freefall after President Trump doubled down on his commitment to broad-based tariffs, stating he would only “make a deal” with other countries if they “solve their trade surpluses” and “pay a lot of money” to the U.S. “These deficits are not sustainable and were one of the biggest reasons I got elected,” Trump declared aboard Air Force 1. “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
Trade negotiations: “Just so you understand the power of what I’m doing, every country is calling and being very solicitous of us,” he continued, saying he spoke with five to six major European and Asian leaders over the weekend. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has also arrived in Washington, and the recently announced 17% tariffs on his country will be on the agenda. Israel had cut all of its remaining tariffs on U.S. goods in the lead-up to Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement, so if any new framework is announced that can relieve some of the new duties, it might be followed as a template for other nations.
A serious bout of selling is still taking place across the globe, with circuit breakers triggered in Asia and European stocks plunging another 6% at the open. Things don’t look any prettier based on futures movement in the U.S., where the Nasdaq joined the Russell 2000 in bear market territory on Friday as U.S. stocks lost a combined $5T in only two trading sessions. It also hasn’t helped that the Chinese government slapped a 34% retaliatory levy on all U.S. goods, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s stance to “wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
Commentary: “At the moment, escalation looks more likely than resolution and that supports a continued decline,” analysts at Matrix Trade wrote in a research note. “Several countries could remove tariffs in the coming days which would allow Trump to claim victory and say some soothing words to the markets. However, China and the E.U. are the most important trading partners, and markets are likely to stay on edge until deals are made with them.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Crude selloff deepens, U.S. oil futures drop below $60 a barrel.
‘Tariff Armageddon’: Dan Ives slashes PTs for these Mag 7 stocks.
Favorites and underdogs to build a casino in the New York City area.
Verizon (VZ) shows off portable private 5G network powered by AI.
A Minecraft Movie blows up weekend box office with $157M haul.
Meta (META) unveils Llama 4 herd, teases ‘most powerful model.’
Rite Aid (OTC:RADCQ) considering another bankruptcy filing.
Texas investigating WK Kellogg (KLG) over artificial food dyes.
China puts TikTok (BDNCE) deal on hold over Trump’s tariffs.
SA Asks: Which space stocks are attractive right now?
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