Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did very well. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Australia, Indonesia and Singapore posted solid gains; Taiwan was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Poland is up, but the UK, France, Germany, Sweden and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
To Russia With Cash
Holiday reminder: Wall Street Breakfast won’t be published tomorrow, with markets closed for Good Friday.
Russia is working on a legal framework for foreign companies to re-enter the country, amid hopes that Western sanctions will eventually be lifted. While companies are exploring options to return and carrying out due diligence, many are wary of making concrete plans till a permanent Russia-Ukraine peace deal is reached.
Conditions apply: Russia’s finance ministry has been drafting a legal framework for foreign companies seeking to return to the country, which will reportedly include requirements for localizing some production and agreeing to technology transfers. To maintain their competitive advantage, Russian businesses would also be given a say on international companies returning to certain sectors.
Many companies sold their Russian subsidiaries after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The deals included buyback clauses, which would enable them to reclaim the assets at a cheaper price. “All new investors who want to come to Russia will receive the most favorable working conditions,” Anatoly Aksakov, head of the financial markets parliamentary committee, told Bloomberg. But companies that exited Russia will have to pay full market prices to reclaim the assets they sold, he added.
Gearing up: Italian heating systems maker Ariston is set to resume operations in Russia after it was given back control of its local unit, which had been placed under the temporary control of Gazprom. South Korea’s LG Electronics reportedly restarted operations at its plant near Moscow, while Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMTF) and Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) are said to be assessing the feasibility of operating in a post-war Russian market.
What else is happening…
Fed’s Powell: Tariffs larger than expected, risking stagflation.
Retail sales rise as shoppers stock up ahead of price hikes.
Export rule targets China’s AI, AMD (AMD) sees $800M hit.
Ford (F) warns of price hike as tariffs threaten to raise costs.
Tesla (TSLA) loses traction in California as registrations drop.
Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral GLP-1 pill succeeds in first late-stage trial.
Valero (VLO) to shut refinery in California, books $1B charge.
Oil rises as U.S. sanctions Chinese importers of Iranian crude.
Bank of Canada keeps rate unchanged, ECB expected to cut.
U.S. alcohol retailers want to be in charge of marijuana sales.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Housing Starts and Permits
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:45 AM Fed’s Barr Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. India, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand did well; Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. South Africa, Portugal, Austria and Sweden are up; Denmark, France, Turkey, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy and Israel are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
$5.5B setback
As the U.S.-China trade war escalates, Washington has informed Nvidia (NVDA) that it needs a special license to export its H20 graphic processing units or related hardware to China. As a result, the company expects to book up to around $5.5B of charges in the first quarter, with the update sending its shares down 6% after hours on Tuesday.
New requirement: The mandate will be in effect indefinitely, and will apply to Nvidia’s “H20 integrated circuits and any other circuits achieving the H20’s memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, or combination thereof,” the chipmaker disclosed. The U.S. government said this addresses the risk that the chips may be used in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China. “Even if the company loses some China sales this year, it is still increasing overall revenues at a rate that’s much faster than its competitors, and the valuation is quite fair for that growth,” SA analyst Bill Maurer noted.
Bigger picture: The H20 is the most advanced chip that Nvidia is permitted to ship to China, and was designed to adhere to Biden-era export controls. China accounted for 13% of Nvidia’s total revenue in the fiscal year ending January 26, 2025. Chinese companies have been ramping up H20 orders, bracing for potential U.S. export curbs. The increase in orders was also driven by growing demand for DeepSeek’s (DEEPSEEK) AI models, which were developed at much lower costs compared to U.S. rivals.
Cloudy outlook: In other news, ASML’s (ASML) CEO Christophe Fouquet warned of uncertainty due to tariffs on the macro-level, and indirectly on the semiconductor equipment maker’s potential market demands. But he noted that there’s still a lot of strength in AI, and some of the demand for this year and the next “has solidified.” The Dutch firm’s shares fell 4% in premarket trade on Wednesday following its quarterly earnings report.
What else is happening…
Trade war: Boeing (BA) orders, Tesla (TSLA) output, J&J (JNJ) impact.
United (UAL) tops estimates, but warns on profit if economy stalls.
These banks’ trading revenues get a boost from market volatility.
S&P 500 (SP500) forms ‘death cross’ for first time since 2022.
Google sued for $6.6B for allegedly abusing search monopoly.
Trump targets Medicare price negotiations in executive order.
Critical minerals imports to be investigated, may lead to tariffs.
Canada throws lifeline to automakers reliant on U.S. inputs.
DOGE requests some SEC data access, but faces pushback.
OpenAI said to be working on building social media network.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Retail Sales
09:15 AM Industrial Production
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Housing Market Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 PM Fed’s Hammack Speech
01:00 PM Results of $13B, 20-Year Bond Auction
01:30 PM Jerome Powell Speech
04:00 PM Treasury International Capital
07:00 PM Fed’s Schmid Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, South Korea, India, Taiwan and Singapore did well; New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well too. The UK, Denmark, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Norway, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are all up moderately. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up Oil and copper down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Uncertainty lingers
Market participants remain wary of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, with latest updates indicating more tariffs – and rollbacks – may be on the way. Pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports are under scrutiny for potential tariffs, while the automobile sector may be offered some respite in the days ahead.
Review underway: On April 1, the Trump administration began investigating the impact of pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports on national security, likely setting the stage for tariffs on the sectors. The Department of Commerce’s pharma investigation covers generic and non-generic drugs, active pharma ingredients, and derivative products. The semiconductor probe covers items including leading-edge chips, chipmaking equipment, silicon wafers, and “downstream products that contain semiconductors.”
The probes will look into current and projected demand for the pharma and semiconductor products, the ability of domestic production to meet demand, and potential for export restrictions. The chip probe will also assess “the ability of foreign nations to weaponize their control over semiconductors and SME supply chains.” The investigations were initiated under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to adjust imports that are found to threaten national security.
Tariff relief? In other news, Trump floated a potential reprieve for the 25% tariffs on automobile and auto part imports, given the industry’s deeply-integrated North American supply chains. “I’m looking at something to help some car companies with it,” Trump told reporters. “They’re switching to parts that were made in Canada, Mexico and other places… they need a little bit of time, because they’re going to make them here.” Trump’s signal was enough to lift top automakers’ shares – GM, F, STLA – which ended on a higher note on Monday.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Better trade deals for the U.S. are expected.
Yellen: Bond selloff signals ‘loss of confidence’ in policymaking.
Consumer polls – Mixed inflation outlook, confidence worsens.
Trump administration to end rule capping credit card late fee.
Lawmakers call on White House to get rid of AI Diffusion rule.
Palantir-NATO deal places it in ‘prime position’ for AI in defense.
Bristol Myers’ (BMY) heart disease drug fails in late-stage trial.
Wall Street-backed crypto bank Anchorage under investigation.
Air travel slumps: U.S. airports see noticeable decline in traffic.
Over $2B of Harvard University’s federal funding gets blocked.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Empire State Mfg Survey
08:30 AM Import/Export Prices
11:35 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
07:10 PM Fed’s Cook Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted solid gains. Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines all did great. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, Greece, the UAE, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are all participating. Futures in the States point to a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper up. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Courting allies
As Donald Trump’s turbulent tariff moves rattle global markets, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to use his first overseas trip of the year to present China as a more stable trade partner. Xi is visiting three Southeast Asian countries this week, starting with Vietnam on Monday, followed by Malaysia and Cambodia.
Working together: “We should work together with the Global South to uphold the common interests of developing countries,” Xi wrote in an article published in the official newspaper of Vietnam’s Communist Party. “The trade war will produce no winner, and protectionism will lead nowhere. Our countries should resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system, stable global industrial and supply chains, and open international environment.”
Two sides: China is a major trading partner of Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. But once the 90-day pause on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs ends, Vietnam will face a 46% tariff rate, Malaysia 24%, and Cambodia 49%. These countries are seeking exemptions, for which the U.S. laid out clear terms. “We will want to hear from countries including Cambodia, Mexico and Vietnam that you will stop allowing China to evade U.S. tariffs by trans-shipping exports through your countries,” Trump’s key adviser Peter Navarro said.
And it’s not just in Southeast Asia. China also aims to strengthen ties with the European Union as part of its diplomatic strategy to counter Washington’s moves to isolate the country. The bloc’s leaders are scheduled to meet with Xi in Beijing in July, at a time when the EU’s ties with Washington are strained. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Tariff respite for smartphones, but supply chain under review.
China halts rare earth exports in response to U.S. tariff hikes.
Plunging oil prices could force U.S. producers to idle rigs.
Canadian, Danish pension funds rethink U.S. investments.
Gold rally: Goldman boosts year-end forecast once again.
Japan rules out using Treasuries as leverage in tariff talks.
Pfizer (PFE) slips after discontinuing weight loss candidate.
Alphabet, Nvidia (NVDA) invest in Safe Superintelligence.
CK Hutchison ports: Italian tycoon’s business may lead bid.
Report: Federal spending swells despite DOGE efforts.
Today’s Economic Calendar
12:00 PM Fed’s Barkin: “Driving Through the Economic Fog”
07:40 PM Fed’s Bostic: Monetary Policy
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