Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did great. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains; India was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Germany, South Africa, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Sweden and the Czech Republic are up; Denmark and the UAE are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Is the bottom in?
That was fast. The benchmark S&P 500 (SP500) nearly fell into a bear market (down 20% from all-time highs) just two weeks ago, but a new shift in market direction has been happening almost as quickly as it started. Over the past 12 trading sessions, outsized moves have been bolstered by easing tariff talk and trade policy. On Thursday, the S&P 500 even finished at a level 10% higher than its recent low, marking a recovery that some define as an exit from correction territory.
Quote: “A positive trade headline a day keeps the bears away. Today was another day where investors used any positivity they could find to buy stocks, as it becomes increasingly clear the United States and China will be forced to cut a deal, as the de-facto trade embargo is hurting trade flows to an unsustainable extent,” Leo Nelissen, part of SA Investing Group iREIT+HOYA Capital, told Seeking Alpha.
“While this also means that any negative headline could cause a substantial pullback, it’s good to see that willingness to take risks has returned. As long as fundamentals refrain from pointing at a recession, we will likely see more upside in the days ahead.”
China mulls exempting select U.S. goods from 125% tariffs
Bessent sees trade war with China de-escalating
Are things speeding up? It doesn’t just seem that trading activity has been moving at a faster pace since the COVID boom… it actually is. Summer 2023 was the last time the S&P 500 entered correction territory and the index recovered from its bottom in only 24 days. Historically speaking, it has taken 133 days for the S&P to find a bottom after falling into a correction, according to data from CFRA Research that goes back to the end of WWII.
What else is happening…
Key takeaways from Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Q1 earnings.
Waymo robotaxis available for personal ownership?
Intel (INTC) slumps on outlook and spending targets.
China plans to exempt select U.S. goods from 125% tariffs.
Apple’s (AAPL) manufacturing shift to India presents hurdles.
7-Eleven owner eyes cost control amid tough retail backdrop.
Trump moves to fast-track approval for energy projects.
New executive order on deep-sea mining of critical minerals.
U.S. arms package for Saudis might be valued at over $100B.
India, Pakistan suspend key treaties after Kashmir terror attack.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Australia and New Zealand did well; Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Turkey, South Africa, Switzerland, Italy and Saudi Arabia are up; Finland is down. Futures in the States point to a flat open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
No hands!
Self-driving cars? How about self-driving trucks? While the robotaxi revolution continues with Alphabet’s Waymo (GOOG) (GOOGL) and repeated promises from Tesla’s (TSLA) Elon Musk, autonomous trucking has taken more of a backseat in discussions surrounding the transport of the future. One can already hail a driverless cab in California, Arizona and Texas, but never before has a truck completed a route without a driver behind the wheel.
Until now: Similar to the (really) early days of robotaxis, a pair of hands was needed inside a robotruck to take over in case of a traffic incident, failure, or emergency. Things are now changing as Aurora Innovation (AUR) takes the next step in removing safety drivers from its vehicles. By the end of this month, the company plans on putting its first fully autonomous truck on a 200-mile stretch of the I-45, a notable freight route between Dallas and Houston, and hopes to have tens more on the road by the end of 2025.
It’s a big deal. Trucking accounts for 70% of all freight moved in the United States, leading to the old slogan, “If you got it, a truck brought it.” Demand is only expected to increase in the coming years at a time when the industry is experiencing driver shortages and high turnover rates. If they deliver on their promise, driverless trucks can help tackle these problems, as well as combat rising costs and supply chain challenges.
About the company: Aurora (AUR) was founded in 2017 by ex-Waymo tech chief Chris Urmson, Tesla Autopilot head Sterling Anderson, and Drew Bagnell, who helped lead Uber’s self-driving division. While it has experienced several delays and pushed-back timelines, Aurora has already inked partnerships with FedEx (FDX) and Uber Freight (UBER), and is one of the only pure-play autonomous vehicle stocks in the market. The next Tesla? Caution warranted? See what Seeking Alpha analysts are saying as Aurora (AUR) trades at around $6 per share.
What else is happening…
Gold falls by most since 2021 as Trump softens stance.
Some tariff relief for carmakers after industry pushback?
Google orders remote staff to return to office or else.
Palantir (PLTR) partners to bring Google Cloud to FedStart.
$1T valuation ‘dependent on executing well’ – Netflix co-CEO.
Amazon’s (AMZN) Starlink competitor is running behind schedule.
Boeing (BA) downplays effect of China tensions on deliveries.
First time Chipotle (CMG) same store sales contract in five years.
OPEC+ discord, more production hikes weigh on crude prices.
Trump: Zelenskyy is prolonging war by resisting calls to cede Crimea.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did great. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand posted big gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, the UAE, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, Israel, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are up more than 1%. Futures in the States point to a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
By a mile
In the latest example of how unpredictable stock movement can be following earnings, Tesla (TSLA) widely missed the mark late Tuesday, but its stock initially shook off the matter and eventually took off. Shares advanced 5.4% to $250 in post-market trading as CEO Elon Musk took the mic during a conference call, and drove as high as 7% in the premarket this morning. For those focused on guidance, things didn’t appear any better on that front. The company admitted that “rapidly evolving trade policy” and “changing political sentiment” could have a meaningful impact on demand in the near term, while it pulled its outlook for 2025.
So, what happened? Despite the dismal report, there was messaging that traders bought into, along with a bold vision from Elon. He has recently spent much of his time in Washington heading up the Department of Government Efficiency, but starting early next month, Musk will only be allocating a day or two per week to DOGE. “The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars,” Elon added, as well as “large-scale, large-volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.” It’s a needed transition as cheaper Chinese rivals significantly eat into its EV market share, though Tesla does plan affordable vehicle production early this year and things to stabilize in the medium to long term. Read the full earnings call transcript
Will he or won’t he? Elon Musk surely has an impressive resume, with most of his companies pioneering big industry breakthroughs. Investors liked to hear him double down on Tesla’s mission of revolutionizing the world through robotaxis and robots, while analysts who believe in that vision are banking their price targets on that reality. “If we do execute well, I think Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world by far,” Musk declared. “It may be as valuable as the next five companies combined.” The statements helped recharge the stock, which has fallen 40% YTD, even if that meant shrugging off the actual numbers displayed in the latest results. See Tesla earnings in four charts
From the SA comments section: “Tesla can’t make an operating profit without tax credits on the higher value vehicles so how are they going to make money selling a lower priced car?,” asks SA Premium user Managing, while SPDY84 writes that “any other stock would be down 20% on this type of report vs valuation… not TSLA.” Elon Musk is the “genius of our time,” counters SA Investing Group subscriber Iamnorthcoast. “Everyone is so caught up in disliking Tesla. Let the haters hate. It might not be pretty now but it will be everlasting successful.”
What else is happening…
Stock futures soar as Trump says ‘no intention’ of axing Fed’s Powell.
Unsustainable? Bessent sees trade war with China de-escalating.
EU’s China policy remains focused on de-risking, not decoupling.
IMF slashes global growth forecasts as tariffs set to fuel slowdown.
Meta’s (META) oversight board concerned over policy overhaul.
Florida sues Snapchat (SNAP) over alleged addictive features.
Nielsen report: YouTube (GOOGL) dominates TV viewership.
Union remains opposed to U.S. Steel (X)-Nippon merger.
Solar stocks rise as U.S. tariffs hit Southeast Asian panels.
Report: Trump may lower U.S. drug prices to international levels.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
09:00 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
09:35 AM Fed’s Waller Speech
09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:00 AM Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 AM Results of $30B, 2-Year FRN Auction
01:00 PM Results of $70B, 5-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
02:35 PM Fed’s Musalem Speech
06:30 PM Fed’s Hammack Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand did well; Taiwan, New Zealand and Malaysia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. Poland, Greece, South Africa, Hungary and Portugal are up; Denmark, Switzerland, Norway and Italy are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fresh fight
Stock volatility continues, with somewhat of a rebound after another big selloff, while the dollar sinks and gold tops $3,500/oz. The latest catalyst was attributed to the prospect of President Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, though many legalists are still wrangling over if and how he could have the authority, as well as whether it could impact Powell’s other roles at the central bank. Even if he were to get the boot, it wouldn’t have an immediate impact on the Federal Open Market Committee’s view of rates, with most of the other 12 voting members aligning with Powell’s policy stance.
What’s at play: The FOMC sets the federal funds rate, or the interest rate at which banks can borrow money. If those rates are lowered, banks can offer their customers lower rates on mortgages, and car, business, or other loans, which tends to result in more demand and the heating up of the economy. The question is how long things take, known as the lag effects of monetary policy, which is currently at the center of the dispute between President Trump and his Fed Chair.
The time frames are what can cause tensions between the federal government, which is focused on the here and now of its electorate, and the Federal Reserve, which is looking at prices and employment in the long term. These perspectives have traditionally been reflected in the time served by federal lawmakers or the president (2, 4, or 6-year terms) vs. Federal Reserve Board members (which hold staggered 14-year terms). It’s also what many say makes the Fed “independent,” or the ability to have long-term goals and views, as well as “accountable” – having been appointed and confirmed by the U.S. President and the Senate.
How long is too long? In an attempt to influence policy, President Trump has repeatedly called Jay Powell “Mr. Too Late,” especially when “Europe has already ‘lowered’ seven times.” One doesn’t have to look too far to Powell’s infamous transitory call in 2021 as price pressures were spiraling out of control, and there are fresh alarm bells as the Fed Chair began using the phrase again. However, there is a separation of powers and never before has a president fired a Fed Chair. Powell has successfully navigated to a “soft landing,” while much uncertainty remains as to how tariffs will play out. He has also signaled that rate cuts lie ahead and the central bank could feel somewhat safe given its backstop of emergency tools that can be deployed should things take a turn for the worse.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Don’t bank on rescheduling of cannabis.
Tesla (TSLA) bulls dig in for the long haul ahead of earnings.
DOJ: Google must be prevented from using AI to boost monopoly.
Manufacturing boost: Roche to invest $50B in the U.S.
RFK Jr. set to phase out eight widely used synthetic food dyes.
New EV tech from China’s CATL sets new bar for battery range.
Dept. of Education to start collecting on student loans in default.
FTC says Uber (UBER) subscription uses deceptive practices.
Moody’s (MCO), MSCI to roll out platform for private credit risk.
Vietnam cracks down on illegal transhipment as tariffs loom.
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:00 AM Fed’s Jefferson Speech
09:30 AM Fed’s Harker Speech
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
01:00 PM Results of $69B, 2-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Money Supply
01:40 PM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
02:30 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
06:00 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. China, India and Singapore did well; Japan, Taiwan and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly closed. Turkey is up; Israel and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a relativel big gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Looking ahead
Guidance is always the most important factor of earnings season, and it’s even more significant this time around. The problem is there’s not going to be too much of it as corporate results kick into high gear. Big Tech and more than one hundred S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, but clarity surrounding tariffs and the near-term business environment has reduced visibility and put estimates in limbo. See the full list
What does it mean? While suspended outlooks or the scaling back of guidance typically weigh on shares, this time around the trend is being felt across sectors. Investors are likely to be sympathetic to the uncertainty, with stocks already punished over the lack of economic transparency. Investors know that it is currently hard for the C-suite to project a forecast with any degree of confidence, but it could also spark some creative ways to satisfy questioning shareholders.
An example of that was seen last week when United Airlines (UAL) was among the first to report Q1 results. The carrier issued two sets of guidance – one catered to a “stable environment” and the other in the event of a “recession.” More companies may take a similar approach if they decide to issue any forward-looking numbers, along with likely revisions that could reflect the multiple scenarios currently facing many firms.
SA commentary: “Given earnings patterns over the years, and because Q1 ’25 was pre-Liberation Day, Q2 ’25 earnings are expected – from the results this past week – to be up 10-12% for the quarter,” writes Seeking Alpha Analyst Brian Gilmartin. “However, Q2 ’25 S&P 500 EPS estimates have already started getting cut, and that reduction will likely continue for another 11-12 weeks. How far Q2 ’25 S&P 500 EPS estimates get revised lower over the next 3-4 weeks will be critical.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Pope Francis dies at age 88 on Easter Monday.
In a global first, UAE is planning to use AI in lawmaking.
China warns against inking U.S. trade deals at its expense.
Gold above $3,380/ounce: See latest news and analysis.
EPA exempts 66 coal plants from mercury, air toxics limits.
Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF) slams brakes on hydrogen jets.
Malaysia plans to buy Boeing planes dropped by China.
South Korea election frontrunner vows to end ‘Korea Discount.’
Fed independence from politics is crucial – Goolsbee.
Government COVID website replaced with China ‘lab leak’ theory.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
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