Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did well. Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines led. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and the Czech Republic are all participating. Futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Employment picture
Wall Street has now recovered nearly all the losses seen since “Liberation Day,” but the Federal Reserve’s job is getting a lot harder. The “data-dependent” central bank may have a hard time parsing through recent economic data before it meets next week, given the negative GDP reading that wasn’t really negative and hot inflation data that might not have been all that fiery. Next up is the potentially market-moving nonfarm payrolls report, which will be published today at 8:30 AM ET.
Snapshot: The average estimate of economists sees 130K added to U.S. payrolls, down from the 228K increase in March. Investors will also be looking at whether the March figure is revised lower, given that last month’s report came in much stronger than expected. The unemployment rate, though, is expected to remain at 4.2%, still near historic lows, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, the same rate as in March. On a year-over-year basis, that translates to a 3.9% increase, up from 3.8% in the prior month.
Don’t make any big bets on market direction. If the numbers come in weak, that would be a bad sign for the economy, and stocks could head south on the news. Alternatively, it might mean the Fed could be more inclined to step in sooner, and equities could rally on the hope of rate cuts. The same equations can occur if the numbers come in stronger than expected, so it’s not a good idea to wager too much on the outcome of today’s report.
SA commentary: “The current labor market can be best described as a low-hire-low-fire market,” writes SA analyst Damir Tokic. “It seems that the labor market is still not weak enough to point to an imminent recession, given that companies are still reluctant to let go of their employees. This likely has to do with a chronic U.S. labor shortage, especially due to the currently stricter immigration policy. Thus, it is likely that the non-farm labor jobs for April remain positive. However, the question is whether new jobs are still being created, in aggregate.”
What else is happening…
China assessing U.S. trade talks as de minimis exemption ends.
Amazon (AMZN) sets cautious tone; Apple (AAPL) warns of tariff hit.
Trump said to tap L3Harris (LHX) for temporary Air Force One.
Buyers of Iran oil won’t be allowed to do business with the U.S.
Analysts upbeat on McDonald’s despite worst quarter since 2020.
Tesla (TSLA) board chair dismisses report of new CEO search.
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) to invest $2B to boost U.S. manufacturing.
Reddit (RDDT) sees 50% revenue growth on strong advertising.
New executive order to slash funding for NPR and PBS.
Japan’s $1T U.S. Treasury holdings could be a negotiating tool.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
Most of the Asian/Pacific markets were close. Japan and New Zealand did well. Most of Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently closed. Denmark is doing well; Saudi Arabia is weak. Futures in the States point to a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Tech resilience
Investors are cheering the blowout earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), with their guidance signaling resilience amid broader economic fears. The tech heavyweights also remain committed to investing heavily in artificial intelligence, even as trade uncertainty has pushed other firms to rein in spending.
Azure strength: Microsoft shares soared 8% in after hours on Wednesday as its third-quarter results beat estimates, driven by its cloud computing unit Azure and AI business. “Cloud and AI are the essential inputs for every business to expand output, reduce costs and accelerate growth,” CEO Satya Nadella said, with continued strength expected into FY 2026. Microsoft continues to expect its capital spending to grow in FY 2026, although at a slower pace than FY 2025. SA analyst Investor’s Compass said the strong results reinforce Microsoft’s long-term thesis.
More AI spending: Meta’s stock jumped 5% in post-market trade on Wednesday following better-than-expected first-quarter results and strong operating margins. The company also raised its capital expenditure plan to reflect more spending on data centers, and higher cost of infrastructure hardware due to tariff uncertainty. “I want to make sure that we’re building out the leading infrastructure and teams that we need to achieve our goals,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said. Investing Group Leader Victor Dergunov said the higher spending target “is another solid sign for Meta and the broader AI industry.”
Next up: The last two Big Tech companies – Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) – will post their quarterly earnings after the bell today. SA analyst A.J. Button said “a lot is riding on” Apple’s report, as the iPhone maker is one of the U.S. tech companies that’s most impacted by President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China. Expectations for Amazon are more optimistic as its cloud and ad services businesses are thriving, according to SA Quant strategist Steven Cress.
What else is happening…
U.S. GDP shrinks as imports swell, Trump calls for patience.
Fed’s preferred inflation measure cools more than expected.
Qualcomm (QCOM) slips despite solid results, guidance.
Robinhood (HOOD) posts earnings beat, boosts buyback.
Trump administration investing $500M on universal vaccines.
Google plans to ink Gemini deal with Apple (AAPL) this year.
Nvidia (NVDA) CEO calls for changes to AI chip export rules.
Apparel sector faces tariff headwinds, mild recession risk.
Trump’s first 100 days were the worst for stocks since Nixon.
U.S. and Ukraine finally sign deal for critical mineral access.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains; New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently split with some noteable movers in both directions. Denmark, France, Germany, the UAE, South Africa, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Sweden are up; Poland, Turkey, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Escaping the worst?
Troubling signs are piling up for China as a trade war threatens the world’s second-largest economy. China’s official manufacturing PMI, which measures factory activity, fell to 49 in April, coming in below the threshold of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. The gauge of new export orders slid even more, plunging to 44.7 in April, marking the lowest reading since the coronavirus pandemic.
Across the Pacific: There are also signs of pain piling up for the world’s largest economy. The Port of Los Angeles has announced that shipping volumes will plunge by a third next week due to “major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs.” Air cargo handlers have observed similar reductions. While many U.S. companies have stocked up on goods, if the situation is not sorted out in the coming months, it might lead to a cascading effect across logistics and transport, businesses, and eventually store shelves.
So far each side is waiting for the right moment they can portray as a win. Are they talking? It’s not really clear, but there is likely some contact going on behind closed doors. In the meantime, both sides appear to be trying to limit the fallout via exemptions, like carveouts for Chinese-built smartphones and electronics or American-made aircraft engines. The economic powers need to make sure they can weather the storm, especially as traditional alliances weaken, like the U.S.-Canada relationship or emerging tensions within the BRICS.
Not that bad? There are many ways to avoid tariffs, and the methods to counteract them have been described as a game of whack-a-mole. There is “white labeling,” which allows companies to easily rebrand products, or altering customs codes, quantities, or “country of origin.” Tariff engineering has also taken the form of new supply chains, or “trans-shipments,” where goods are rerouted through third-party countries. It’s no wonder that Vietnam has seen a manufacturing renaissance in recent years, or that Mexico surpassed China as the biggest importer into the U.S.
What else is happening…
Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) kick off Big Tech earnings.
S&P 500 (SP500) posts six-day win streak ahead of Q1 GDP.
New York moves ahead with smartphone ban in schools.
Amazon (AMZN) denies tariff display plan after White House ire.
Waymo, Toyota (TM) explore self-driving tech for personal cars.
GM (GM) pulls guidance, halts buybacks over tariff uncertainty.
Lutnick lays out relief points to dampen Trump’s auto levy impact.
Hims & Hers (HIMS) surges on deal to sell weight loss drug.
UPS to axe 20K employees amid breakup with Amazon (AMZN).
Volatility: U.S. consumer confidence slides to COVID-era low.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Thailand did well; New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Denmark, Germany, the UAE, South Africa, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal and Austria are up; Turkey, Spain, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is flat.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
…or investor sentiment!
There’s a lot of data scheduled to be released over the next several days. The festivities will begin this morning with the publication of international trade figures, consumer confidence, and job openings. Tomorrow, investors will digest the GDP reading for Q1, as well as the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. The fun will also continue into Friday, with the latest print on employment and wages in the non-farm payrolls report.
Fine print: While much of the series will provide the first “hard data” after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, the numbers are a little complicated. Many companies and consumers have been stocking up on goods before the levies were set to be put into action, while knock-on effects are also uncertain given ongoing trade talks. Have these already impacted company hiring decisions? What percentage of the headlines have materialized in the real economy? And how long does it take for the new dynamics to play out?
“Powell & Co. has been clearly expressing their opinion that the uncertainties surrounding topics such as tariffs and federal government cost-cutting had placed a cloud of sorts over the economic and inflation outlooks,” wrote Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at WisdomTree. “Interestingly, it does not appear as if this cloud will be removed any time in the near future either.”
What does it mean for stocks? While it may be hard to draw specific conclusions from the data, investors have been reacting to announcements and forecasts in real-time. Sentiment might be a more important key here on how equities will trade, which can be seen from measurements like the new Seeking Alpha Market Indicator (see the latest results here). The gauge for short-term market direction is based on a 10-point list, with variables ranging from predictable trade policy to earnings and interest rates.
What else is happening…
Check out other results from April’s WSB Sentiment Survey.
Canada election: Liberals win, but minority government ahead.
Trump to ease auto tariff impact as he marks 100 days in office.
China: Stocking oil, but no need for U.S. farm and energy goods.
Amazon launches internet satellites to rival Starlink (STRLK).
AI retail: OpenAI integrates shopping features into ChatGPT.
UPS (UPS) eyes using humanoid robots for the first time.
Investors worry Big Oil firms could cut dividends and buybacks.
House Republicans mull shifting FTC antitrust actions to DOJ.
Power mostly restored in Spain and Portugal – What caused it?
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. Japan, India, Taiwan, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Indonesia led while China was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Poland, France, Germany, the UAE, Norway, and Spain are up; Turkey, Portugal and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up slightly. Oil is flat; copper is up. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Going to the polls
Federal election day is underway in Canada amid a worsening economic outlook for the country. Up until several months ago, the cost of living had been noted as the most important issue for voters, given slowing productivity growth and stagnant wage levels over the past decade. While affordability is still a priority, the election of Donald Trump has shaken up the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, as well as the polls for both of Canada’s major parties.
Snapshot: Conservative party head Pierre Poilievre had a big lead going into the end of 2024, given the chaos surrounding the exit of longtime leader Justin Trudeau and his minority government. Since then, the heir to Trudeau’s Liberal party, Mark Carney, has closed the gap in the polls due to his hardline stance against U.S. threats and economic nationalism. Other support that has been typically allocated to the NDP and Bloc Québécois might also be redirected towards the two major parties, given the high stakes surrounding the election and its two biggest contenders.
Unlike in the U.S., Canadians don’t vote directly for their top leader. They vote for a local member of parliament, and the leader of the party with the most MPs becomes the prime minister. The platforms of Carney, a two-time central banker that has never held elected office, and Poilievre, the leader of the opposition, have emerged in recent weeks and take different carrot-and-stick approaches in how to reinvigorate the economy.
“The Bank of Canada has now already cut rates at seven consecutive meetings, but the resting point for interest rates is still uncertain,” Seeking Alpha Analyst Russell Investments writes in Election Debrief: Why The Era Of Uncertainty May Continue In Canada. “Should the trade standoff persist, the Canadian economy could face a significant likelihood of tipping into a recession.”
On the ballot: Both candidates have pledged to eliminate taxes for first-time homebuyers, and are targeting supply by – establishing new public development initiatives and benefits for multi-family construction (Carney) or by expediting financing and tying federal funding of municipalities to home construction growth (Poilievre). How will they handle the U.S. trade relationship? Carney has leveled retaliatory tariffs, and pledged additional levies, in response to the ones imposed by President Trump. He has also promised to diversify Canadian trade abroad and remove interprovincial trade barriers domestically. Poilievre wants to take a more targeted approach with the U.S., while increasing deregulatory efforts to boost infrastructure, as well as energy projects by relaxing environmental and climate policies. Take the SA Sentiment Survey for April.
What else is happening…
Healthcare earnings sweep past estimates: Big Tech is next.
How much did cryptocurrency scams cost Americans in 2024?
Shein raises U.S. prices up to 377% with new tariffs looming.
Missed the gold rally? It might not be too late for silver.
Huge explosion rocks Iran’s largest commercial port.
U.S. LNG industry: New shipping rules could undermine exports.
Trump says U.S. ships should travel for free through these canals.
Tariffs might be tied to potential tax cuts for middle-income earners.
Bulls circle Seeking Alpha’s top IT pick amid earnings momentum.
DOGE comes to France? Big cuts to state agencies in the cards.
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