Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines did well; China and India were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing very well. Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, Italy, and the Czech Republic are leading the way. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Recent Trades —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is flat. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
The fiscal package
Well, the first trade deal under the Trump administration has been ironed out, and more are said to be on the way. Markets continue to applaud the progress, with strong gains for stocks in recent days as American officials prepare to meet their Chinese counterparts in Switzerland this weekend. With trade discussions underway, attention has turned to top legislative priorities, especially given President Trump’s repeated goal of passing “one, big, beautiful bill.”
What’s happening? Reports suggest that Trump made a direct request to House Speaker Mike Johnson this week to raise the upper tax bracket for some of the richest Americans. The new 39.6% tax rate (up from 37%) would be for individuals earning at least $2.5M, or couples making at least $5M. Trump also wants to do away with the carried interest tax break used by hedge funds and private equity, as well as other measures, like imposing higher tax bills on owners of major stadiums and arenas.
It’s a significant departure from past policy for Republicans, who have traditionally sought tax cuts to grow the economy. There is likely to be considerable infighting on the new types of offsets, which are aiming to raise taxes on the rich to pay for tax cuts elsewhere. Trump has already promised no taxes on social security, tips, and overtime pay, but the budget shortfalls from those moves would need serious offsets, especially given struggles on the spending side, such as cutting back on major entitlement programs like Medicaid.
Taxes and your money: “The goal of tax optimization isn’t to avoid paying taxes, but to maximize your wealth on an after-tax basis,” Neuberger Berman writes in The Power Of Tax Deferral, discussing tax-loss harvesting and deferring capital gains. Investing Group Leader Chris DeMuth Jr. also explores a wide range of tax optimization investing strategies in Seeking Alpha article, Give Yourself A Tax Cut.
What else is happening…
Inside the U.K. trade deal to boost U.S. export market access.
Major new Boeing (BA), Airbus order from British Airways owner.
‘Firing on all cylinders:’ Analysts cheer Palantir (PLTR) results.
Google (GOOG) rebuffs Apple (AAPL) exec’s search worries.
American cardinal selected as new pope of Catholic Church.
Pinterest (PINS) boasts user strength, forecasts strong growth.
Stablecoin bill blocked as Trump’s crypto ties fuel pushback.
Here are the reasons WeightWatchers (WW) went bankrupt.
JD Vance says India-Pakistan conflict is ‘none of our business.’
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Attention Investors – This Is Now My #1 Place To Buy Dividends
Nvidia: May 15 Could Be The True Liberation Day
Don’t Get Caught In The Bull Trap
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. China and Hong Kong did well, but India, New Zealand, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing very well. The UK, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are leading the way. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Recent Trades —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Flight to safety
“We have computers, and I kid you not, today in 2025, that are based on Windows 95 and floppy disks,” said Nick Daniels, President of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. It’s just one of several troubling statements made in recent months surrounding air traffic control following the Potomac River mid-air collision and the recent radar outage at Newark Liberty International Airport. United Airlines (UAL) has even slashed its flight schedule due to the latest disruption, while many personnel there took a leave of absence following the “traumatic event.”
How did we get here? Air traffic controller (ATC) hiring goals have not been met in recent years and staffing numbers have not been reported accurately for nearly a decade. Strict application qualifications include being under the age of 31, passing rigorous air-traffic pre-employment tests, and medical requirements like no history of high/low blood pressure or diabetes. There’s also a lot of stress and pressure on the job, like coordinating a myriad of split-second decisions on a daily basis, as well as grueling hours and oftentimes six-day workweeks. Earnings can be substantial, but there’s a mandatory retirement age of 56.
Insufficient staffing is not the only thing to blame amid growing flight volumes. Technological issues have disrupted operations, while attempts to modernize the National Airspace System (NAS) have seen mixed results (old systems still rely on copper lines vs. fiber optic cables and Notice to Airman (NOTAM) is choppy and outdated). From a broader perspective, there are uncertainties over funding, the length of programs, as well as transitioning an entire industry to new complex systems.
What to do? President Trump initially alleged that DEI hiring practices were to blame for air traffic problems, but the administration is now doing more to restore faith for flyers and shore up aging technology. Last week, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced several initiatives to recruit more air traffic controllers, but a bigger announcement will come later today at a news conference in Washington. The massive overhaul, which will require “tens of billions of dollars” from Congress, will “radically transform” everything from telecom and ATC towers to radar infrastructure and approach control facilities.
What else is happening…
Fed holds rates again as Powell (still) sees risks to dual mandate.
Disney (DIS) sets eyes on Abu Dhabi for next theme park resort.
Alphabet tumbles as Apple (AAPL) exec raises search concerns.
Trump to unveil UK trade deal; EU mulls levies on Boeing jets.
Tariff impact: Ford (F) hikes prices on vehicles made in Mexico.
Carvana (CVNA) targets 3M annual sales over next decade.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) CEO after layoffs: AI flattens our hiring curve.
On tap? More geographic name changes for bodies of water.
What it means for trade? Latest results from shipping giant Maersk.
Changes to AI export controls and AI threats to humanity.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
8-12% Dividend Yields From Undervalued REITs
China Is Losing The Trade War
Trapping Value With Every Dividend Collected: AGNC
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy Fed Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, South Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Denmark, Poland, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Austria and the Czech Republic are up; the UK, France, Switzerland and Spain are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Recent Trades —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Latest meeting
According to the U.S. central bank, the economic path ahead has turned more treacherous than what was expected in the last few months of 2024. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee today is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the third straight meeting. It’s a stark contrast to the jumbo 50-basis-point reduction unleashed last September, and the two more cuts immediately after that, as the Fed remains in “wait and see” mode to navigate current uncertainty.
Snapshot: Moves by the Trump administration to slash the size of the federal government and introduce hefty tariffs helped contribute to a downturn in stocks, a jump in bond yields, and a softening dollar. Equity markets have largely recovered from the dramatic drop incurred since “Liberation Day,” but the S&P 500 (SP500) is still down about 4% YTD. So far, the hard data is holding up, but it is getting confusing. Policymakers are still digesting a negative GDP reading that wasn’t really negative, hot inflation data that might not have been all that fiery, and strong jobs reports that might not have reflected recent developments.
A “dot plot” also won’t be released at today’s meeting, so keep an ear out for comments during Jay Powell’s press conference. The Fed Chair has recently faced down pressure from President Trump, with names like “Mr. Too Late,” though Trump has seemingly backed away from discussions on firing Powell. That’s yet another reason the FOMC could hold the line at the next couple of meetings, to stress the independence of the Federal Reserve and not yield to pressure.
Commentary: “From my view, the key thing is that the tight labor market is actually a worst-of-both-worlds scenario for the Fed or for people wanting cuts,” David Russell, Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, said in an interview with Seeking Alpha. “The tight labor market is making up Jerome Powell’s mind for him. It’s making it easy to say ‘no’ to rate cuts. And now that President Trump has said he won’t fire Powell, he’s basically given Jerome Powell more ability to be hawkish.”
What else is happening…
Stock futures rise on U.S.-China trade talks, PBOC eases policy.
WeightWatchers files for bankruptcy as GLP-1 drugs upend market.
Carney: Canada won’t ever be for sale; Trump: ‘never say never.’
Pakistan’s Karachi 100 sinks after India launches airstrikes.
Rivian unlocks $1B investment from Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).
Amazon’s Zoox issues software recall, eyes robotaxi fleet expansion.
Comcast’s (CMCSA) cable TV spinoff entity to be called ‘Versant.’
Gold rallies to another record close amid return to risk-averse mode.
Super Micro (SMCI) shares fall as updated guidance disappoints.
Trump teases ‘very big’ announcement, ‘not necessarily’ on trade.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
Pay, Baby, Pay – 3 Dirt-Cheap Dividend Stocks Pumping Out Cash
Alphabet Is Now A Steal (Technical Analysis)
Nvidia: Selloff Overdone, Huawei 910D Can’t Compete
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and the Philippines did well; India and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Israel is up, but Denmark, Poland, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Recent Trades —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Structurally speaking
Control over one of the biggest players in artificial intelligence keeps getting shuffled around, with OpenAI reshaping its corporate structure (again). It’s a big deal, as OpenAI is one of the highest privately backed companies in the world and has been facing a notable lawsuit from founder Elon Musk (who sued to block the last conversion and now leads competitor xAI). Microsoft (MSFT) also holds a large stake in OpenAI, which announced plans in March to raise up to $40B at a $300B valuation.
Backdrop: Since its founding in 2015, OpenAI’s mission has been to develop cutting-edge AI technologies that would “benefit humanity as a whole, unconstrained by a need to generate financial return.” Only a few years later, the non-profit formed a “capped profit” subsidiary, which eventually helped it attract the billions of dollars in investment that were needed to develop its large language models, ChatGPT, and other expensive generative AI offerings. A schism eventually grew between the OpenAI board skeptical of corporate expansion and CEO Sam Altman’s business vision, leading to the latter’s rapid ouster and subsequent reinstatement in 2023 following an employee revolt.
That wasn’t the end. OpenAI led by Altman later decided to spin off the non-profit division and convert itself into a for-profit firm, before settling on a “public benefit corporation,” which would combine profit-making with social goals. AI safety concerns still lingered, prompting the company to take yet another turn. According to the newest structure, the non-profit will maintain oversight and retain a large ownership stake in the new public benefit corporation. The move was said to be decided upon after “hearing from civic leaders” and “engaging in dialog with AGs in Delaware and California” who had to sign off on the process.
Sounds complicated? It is. The new structure means the public benefit corporation will have “non-profit control,” though questions remain about the level of authority, while communications surrounding the move didn’t provide too many more details. “I won’t pretend that it wouldn’t maybe be easier if we were a fully normal company, but the mission comes first,” Altman declared. “We believe this is well over the bar of what we need to be able to fundraise… The nonprofit will continue to control the PBC, and will become a big shareholder in the PBC, in an amount supported by independent financial advisors.”
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Here is Warren Buffett’s best investment.
Waymo (GOOGL) to expand fleet; Google sets sights on Hollywood.
Going private: Skechers (SKX) to be sold to 3G Capital.
More M&A as DoorDash buys U.K. peer Deliveroo for $3.9B.
Ford (F) pulls guidance; Palantir (PLTR) stumbles after earnings.
Latest executive order to streamline domestic drug production.
State AGs sue to block Trump’s suspension of wind projects.
Radar failure left Newark air-traffic staff blind for 90 seconds.
U.S. government blocks future federal grants for Harvard.
Chevron (CVX) CEO warns against losing ties with Venezuela.
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
The Only 2 Investments You Need To Retire
What Recession? I’m Swimming In Dividends
How To Profit From What Might Be The Craziest Year In Stock Market History
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. India and New Zealand were up; Taiwan, Australia and the Philippines were down. Japan, China, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Germany, Hungary, Portugal, Israel and Austria are up; Poland and France are down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Recent Trades —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A new chapter
A big announcement shook the financial world over the weekend as investing legend Warren Buffett announced he would step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B). The news came in the final minute of Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting, also known as “Woodstock for Capitalists,” which saw as many as 40,000 people descend on Omaha, Nebraska. While Buffett will likely stay on as chairman, the announcement was held close to his chest, with only two company directors (his children) aware of his plans. Who is Greg Abel, set to replace The Oracle at the top?
Greedy when others are fearful: Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965 when it was a failing textile firm with shares trading below $20. As of Friday, its Class A shares closed at a record $809,809, with a whopping market value of $1.2T (8th largest U.S. public company). Its returns over that period have also doubled the S&P 500 (SP500), notching a 19.9% compounded annual growth rate. Speculation has swirled for decades regarding life after Buffett, who embodied foresight and characteristic humility. In 2003, at just 72, he quipped that if he ever started “losing [his] marbles,” it would take his entire family to convince him to step aside.
Berkshire Hathaway itself was a one-of-a-kind vehicle: neither mutual fund nor hedge fund, it offered Buffett the perfect structure to capitalize on long-term opportunities without the burden of investor redemptions or short-term performance pressures. In fact, the long-term investment and growth approach differed tremendously from the current environment of algorithmic and meme trading, where valuations and patience are virtues in contrast to speed and FOMO. Buffett was also able to take money off the table when it was warranted, with Berkshire currently sitting on a cash pile of around $347B, including around 5% of all Treasury bills in circulation. Here are the company’s latest earnings
Highlights from Capitalist Woodstock: See what Buffett had to say about Berkshire’s failed venture with Amazon (AMZN) and JPMorgan (JPM) to transform the U.S. healthcare system. He also discussed the insurance industry at large, including the risk of wildfires, AI applications, and how things will work in the era of self-driving cars. Additional topics covered included “American exceptionalism,” his view on tariffs and trade, and whether he’d choose stocks over real estate. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Oil falls on OPEC+ output boost; Saudis threaten more hikes.
Shell (SHEL) weighs BP takeover as industry pressures mount.
Trump has ‘sweet spot’ for TikTok, will push deadline if no deal.
‘Dying’ Hollywood: Foreign-made films may face 100% tariff.
Netflix (NFLX) co-CEO: Production in India had $2B impact.
Will American troops be sent to Mexico to fight the cartels?
Elon Musk’s ‘Starbase’ is approved as an official Texas city.
Why is United Airlines (UAL) cutting daily flights at Newark?
Australia’s Labor retains power: Here is the immediate focus.
Bulls vs. Bears: Is Super Micro (SMCI) a Buy after selloff?
Here’s the latest Seeking Alpha analysis
A Major Market Disruption Is Likely Coming
9 Dividend Aristocrats Potentially Set To Soar, No Matter What Happens Next
AMD: You May Not Get It This Cheap Again
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