Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Hong Kong, South Korea, and India did well; Japan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. The UK, France, Turkey, Germany, the UAE, Germany, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, and Austria are doing great. Denmark is down. Futures in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Two weeks
President Donald Trump has once again set a two-week timeframe to decide on a complex issue – this time on whether the U.S. should launch an attack on Iran. The deadline is aimed at pressuring Tehran to come to the negotiating table for a nuclear deal, as the escalating Israel-Iran conflict enters its second week.
Diplomacy first: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” Trump said in a message delivered by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt. The deadline comes as Israel and Iran continue to exchange attacks by air, targeting military and nuclear sites, as well as civilian infrastructure.
British, French, German and EU foreign ministers will meet with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva on Friday to discuss the situation. “The president supports diplomatic efforts from our allies that could bring Iran closer to taking his deal,” a White House official said. While diplomatic efforts are ongoing, Trump weighing a potential strike on Iran has split his support base in the U.S., as many allies want to avoid a repeat of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
Eye on oil: Iran is reportedly racing to get its oil out into the world, as satellite images show storage tanks at the Kharg Island export terminal are brimming with crude. At the same time, Iran has been driving up its crude exports. This likely means that Iran is directing more crude into the facility to ensure that it can send as much oil as possible to the global market. Meanwhile, energy and shipping industries are closely watching developments at the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway “is the artery through which the world’s energy flows, and if that artery is blocked, it’ll have a huge impact on global trade,” Shell (SHEL) CEO Wael Sawan warned.
What else is happening…
SoftBank’s Son pitches $1T AI hub to TSMC (TSM), Trump team.
Musk’s X eyes in-app stock trading, more consolidation ahead?
Mars mission: SpaceX’s (SPACE) Starship explodes during test.
Amazon (AMZN) directs staff to relocate to be near managers.
Trump extends deadline for TikTok (BDNCE) ban for third time.
Bidding war? Home Depot (HD) makes offer for GMS (GMS)
Biggest sports deal: LA Lakers set to be sold at $10B valuation.
Gilead (GILD) wins FDA nod for twice-yearly HIV PrEP shot.
China’s rare earth magnet exports slump to five-year low in May.
Swiss central bank’s rate hits zero, Bank of England holds steady.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy FOMC day.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan did well; Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Hungary is up, but Denmark, Poland, Turkey, the UAE, Greece, Finland, and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point towards a slight positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold is flat; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fed watch
Wall Street Breakfast won’t be published tomorrow with markets closed for Juneteenth, but tune back in on Friday. Enjoy the holiday!
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision this afternoon, with hard data portraying an economy with receding inflation and a relatively solid labor market. That would usually indicate that central bankers are likely to lower policy rates. But not this time.
Economists and Fed officials are considering the range of potential outcomes for the Trump administration’s tariff and immigration policies. Geopolitical events further complicate the matter. “I’ve heard so many people say – and I would agree with them – that uncertainty is at an all-time high right now,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told Seeking Alpha. “And just when you think it’s getting a little easier, something else comes along – in this case the Middle East conflict – that continues to breed more uncertainty.”
That backdrop has markets betting that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, a move that would likely anger President Donald Trump. Trading of interest rate futures doesn’t see a rate cut until the September meeting, and many expect only one or two cuts this year. The uncertainty is likely to show up in the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections. In March, the SEP showed the median expectation was for two rate cuts this year, bringing the fed funds rate to ~3.9% at year-end.
SA commentary: SA analyst Jeremy LaKosh doesn’t expect the Fed to cut rates within the next six months, as trade uncertainties cloud its ability to confidently stand behind inflation data. He said the stronger-than-expected labor market will provide the cover that the Fed needs to keep rates at current levels for the remainder of the year. Investing Group Leader Jack Bowman sees the Fed maintaining rates through the summer, with the next cut being a small 25-basis-point cut in September.
What else is happening…
$13B cash burn at Musk’s xAI, Tesla (TSLA) fundamentals worsen.
Amazon (AMZN) CEO: AI will reduce total corporate workforce.
FDA to shorten drug review time, agency head talks up AI tools.
Insurers likely to cover vaccines without ACIP recommendations.
U.S. Senate passes landmark stablecoin bill, House vote next.
Coinbase eyes tokenized stocks, JPMorgan pilots deposit token.
Credit Pulse: Card delinquencies, net charge-offs extend decline.
Toy companies petition Supreme Court to overturn Trump’s tariffs.
PBOC chief eyes new global currency order as dollar appeal fades.
Want to predict a crisis? Pentagon pizza orders may hold the key.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and New Zealand did well; Indonesia, Thailand, and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East mostly did well. France, Norway, Hungary, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden, and Saudi Arabia are doing well; Denmark, Germany, and Finland are down. Futures in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is flat. Gold is down; silver is up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Aviation in focus
The Paris Air Show, historically a showcase for mega-deals and aerospace pageantry, opens on Monday under a cloud of crisis and uncertainty. More than 2,400 exhibitors from 48 countries have gathered at Le Bourget for the event, with aircraft makers like Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF), Embraer (ERJ) and Boeing (BA) expected to secure new orders and fleet renewal deals. Aviation intelligence platform IBA expects orders for up to 800 commercial aircraft at the event.
Backdrop: Last week’s fatal crash of an Air India 787 Dreamliner that killed at least 265 people has cast a long shadow over the Paris Air Show. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg pulled out of the event to oversee the investigation into the crash, which disrupted what had been a modest recovery under new leadership after years of safety and production concerns. Adding to the aviation industry’s woes are the mounting costs and supply chain disruptions in the wake of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
Escalating geopolitical tensions also loom large, with the widening conflict between Israel and Iran stirring fears of broader instability in the Middle East. Additionally, the ongoing Ukraine war has led to increased defense budgets and renewed interest in combat aircraft. As a result, military displays are taking up a significant share of the air show, including high-profile appearances from the Lockheed Martin (LMT) F-35 and the Dassault (OTCPK:DASTY) Rafale.
Eye on the future: Despite the heavy atmosphere, innovation still peeks through the clouds. U.S. startup JetZero is attracting attention with its futuristic blended-wing design – a triangular aircraft concept that could disrupt traditional fuselage thinking. The company is targeting a full-scale test flight by 2027. There’s also growing interest in space ventures, with European firms like Airbus and Thales (OTCPK:THLEF) exploring partnerships to challenge SpaceX’s (SPACE) orbital dominance.
What else is happening…
Israel-Iran conflict: More attacks launched, Trump urges peace.
White House reviews contracts awarded to SpaceX (SPACE).
Nippon to ‘promptly’ close U.S. Steel (X) deal after Trump nod.
Another death reported in Sarepta (SRPT) gene therapy trial.
Amazon (AMZN) to invest $13B in data centers in Australia.
Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) faces more activist investor pressure.
Southwest (LUV) adds Honeywell’s (HON) cockpit alert software.
From resorts to crypto: Trump discloses over $600M in income.
Over 170 companies expected to announce job cuts this month.
Free shipping isn’t so free anymore as retailers adjust to tariffs.
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