Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets finished the week with solid gains. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, Singapore, and Thailand all did well. India was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside, but movement is minimal. Poland, South Africa, and Hungary are up; Sweden is down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is flat.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fresh calculations
There’s a lot of talk out there about whether President Trump would or could fire current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as well as a lot of drama surrounding renovations at the Eccles Building and 1951 Constitution Avenue. It boils down to arguments of independence and competence, but the real fight is the direction of U.S. monetary policy and the impact of tariffs on the economy. These have an outsized influence on the life of everyday Americans and the electorate, making it a hot topic in the current environment. Who will succeed Powell as Fed chair?
Thought bubble: While Powell’s term as board chairman expires in May 2026, he could stay on as Fed governor for another two years, which is the real worry of the Trump administration. In that role, Powell could be somewhat of a shadow Fed chair, especially with around 4 out of the remaining 6 Fed board governors subscribing to his policy views. The real reason why Trump is upping the pressure is that he wants Powell to be uncomfortable (or legally worried) about continuing in a governor spot past next year, which would give him another nomination to the board.
Should that be the case – and Trump replaces Adriana Kugler in January 2026 – he will have nominated a majority of the Fed board, including Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller. While that would set a tone at the board of governors, whose seven members are permanent members of the Federal Open Market Committee, it won’t necessarily translate entirely into monetary policy (more toward bank reserve rates). Remember that it’s the FOMC’s entire twelve-member committee that is responsible for setting the federal funds rate in the U.S., which influences everything from mortgage rates and car loans to credit cards and corporate balance sheets. Waller pushes for rate cut in July
Outlook: Among the five rotating FOMC members next year are notable hawks like Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari and Dallas’ Lorie Logan. That could complicate the picture in achieving a consensus-driven FOMC, and could raise the stakes of internal division or weaken the predictive power of policy direction. Things could get even more turbulent if Powell decides to stay on as a Fed governor or if a FOMC chair revote doesn’t take place later in the year. It could lead to two separate chair roles at the Fed board and FOMC and result in conflicting messaging at the central bank.
What else is happening…
Trucking impacts of a coast-to-coast railroad by UNP and NSC.
CBS (PARA) pulls the plug on late-night franchise after 33 years.
Key takeaways from Netflix’s (NFLX) Q2 earnings as stock dips.
Buoying bitcoin, House passes crypto market structure bill.
Report: White House eyes executive order targeting ‘woke’ AI.
Robotaxi deal: Uber (UBER) to invest in EV maker Lucid (LCID).
Zuckerberg, META investors settle Cambridge Analytica lawsuit.
Trump’s push for cane sugar in Coke (KO) could hurt farmers.
AI search startup Perplexity valued at $18B after new funding.
U.K. moves to lower voting age to 16? Should the U.S. be next?
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did great. Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand all posted solid gains. The Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, the UAE, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, and Sweden are up. Denmark is down. Futures in the States point to a mixed open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Abandoned bid
What could have become a convenience store empire is now being seen as not all that convenient. Canada’s Alimentation Couche-Tard (OTCPK:ANCTF) has withdrawn its $47B proposal to buy 7-Eleven parent company Seven & i Holdings (OTCPK:SVNDY) following a long year of discussions. The tie-up would’ve resulted in a Big Gulp, combining the Circle K operator’s network of more than 17,000 stores with the Slurpee parent’s 85,800 locations.
Backdrop: Interest in a takeover is said to have gone back decades, but things only got serious in 2024, when Couche-Tard launched a formal $39B bid that was rejected. The offer was later raised to $47B, though 7-Eleven appeared to play hardball with the founding Ito family attempting a rival buyout before financing fell through. There might have been careful calculation on how to keep Japan’s most successful brand from falling into hands overseas, though drawn-out valuation, structural and regulatory concerns didn’t help the situation.
The final straw for Couche-Tard was what it called a “calculated campaign of obfuscation and delay” and a “persistent lack of good faith engagement.” “There has been no sincere or constructive engagement that would facilitate the advancement of any proposal,” Couche-Tard wrote in a letter to Seven & i’s board, though the latter classified the stance as a “mischaracterization.” Seven & i shares dropped 9% in Japan following the news.
7-Eleven history: It all began in 1927, when convenience stores were attached to Southland Ice Company shops across the U.S. (this was before mainstream refrigeration). The locations eventually gained in popularity by staying open on weekends and for notable branding efforts that made them known as Tote’m Stores. Their name was changed to 7-Eleven in 1946 to reflect expanded business hours, while in 1973, Japanese chain Ito-Yokado signed an agreement to develop 7-Eleven convenience stores in the country. Two decades later, Ito-Yokado acquired a 70% stake in Southland Corporation, which was later expanded to 100% in 2005, when its collective businesses were reorganized into the holding company Seven & i Holdings.
What else is happening…
SA Asks: Can Trump fire Powell? Who could be his successor?
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 preview: Price hikes and ad growth in focus.
MP Materials (MP) launches stock offering after record high.
$8B high-profile expansion touted by Las Vegas Sands (LVS).
GrabAGun Digital Holdings (PEW) misfires in trading debut.
Coke (KO) might go back to sugar after Trump intervention.
PepsiCo (PEP) gains after strong international results.
Crypto regulation bills back on track after stalled House vote.
United (UAL) posts mixed results amid disruptions in Newark.
This popular U.S. bank is worth more than its next three rivals.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Taiwan and New Zealand did well; South Korea, Australia, Malaysia, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed with very few notable movers. The UAE, Spain, and Portugal are up; Norway, the Netherlands, and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
With a little help from my rivals
What would you think if one of your main competitors gave you a helping hand in getting ahead in the space race? That’s precisely what just happened in the old rivalry between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos as the billionaires take their investments to the final frontier.
Out of tune? At 2:30 AM ET, a SpaceX (SPACE) Falcon 9 rocket carrying 24 of Amazon’s (AMZN) Project Kuiper internet satellites launched to orbit, bringing its total constellation to 78. Its first two batches of satellites were launched by provider United Launch Alliance (LMT) (BA), though it has been under increasing pressure to get its network up and running. Project Kuiper hopes to eventually position more than 3,200 satellites in low Earth orbit, but its license with the FCC mandates that at least half of those must be deployed before August 2026.
Amazon had hoped to rely on Jeff Bezos’ other space venture, Blue Origin (BORGN), to secure its launch capacity, but its New Glenn rocket has flown only once so far (the next launch is scheduled for Aug. 15). In comparison, SpaceX’s reliable Falcon 9 rockets have already helped establish a Starlink (STRLK) constellation of nearly 8,000 satellites, with around 5M customers across the globe. It’ll be tough for Kuiper to gain an edge over its top rival, but the company is hoping to obtain market share in an industry that it can use for its other businesses, like Amazon Web Services.
By the numbers: Bank of America estimates that Project Kuiper could deliver $7.1B in revenue for Amazon by 2032, assuming the firm gains a 30% consumer share. That would translate into a key revenue driver for Amazon with “potentially strong long-term margins,” but it will also be massively expensive to build out the entire constellation, ground terminals and related infrastructure. Boston Consulting Group data mentioned by Bank of America outlined that the global satellite communications service market could approach $40B in revenue by 2030.
What else is happening…
MP Materials (MP) hits high after inking $500M deal with Apple (AAPL).
Stealth transactions by UnitedHealth (UNH) for earnings momentum?
Bessent suggests that Powell should exit the Fed in May.
Indonesia trade deal: 19% tariffs and 50 Boeing (BA) jets.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) boosts 2025 guidance after Q2 double-beat.
… going to be involved in stablecoins, but needs to understand it.
Is a pullback in store as S&P 500 (SP500) flashes overbought signal?
Westinghouse plans to build 10 large nuclear reactors in the U.S.
Mortgage applications plunge amid higher Treasury yields.
SA Asks: Should Tesla (TSLA) invest in Grok chatbot developer xAI?
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Thailand did well while Malaysia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Poland, the UAE, South Africa, the Netherlands, Portugal, Israel, and Sweden are up; South Africa is down. Futures in the States point to a moderate positive open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up slightly. Oil is up a small amount; copper is down a little. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Up and away
A record-breaking rally for bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been seen in recent weeks, months, and over the past year as a whole. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency just zoomed past the $120,000 milestone, doubling in value since July 2024. While bitcoin dipped overnight on some profit taking, optimism appears to remain intact ahead of a big week for crypto.
The latest: Fresh highs have been notched as corporate treasuries ramp up bitcoin purchases and spot exchange-traded funds garner record inflows. However, the biggest catalyst has been U.S. lawmakers moving closer to passing long-awaited crypto legislation. That will set the stage for digital assets to be subject to clearer rules and potentially result in wider acceptance across traditional finance.
Three bills are under consideration in the U.S. House of Representatives this week that, if approved, would mark a huge win for the crypto space:
1) The GENIUS Act, which the Senate recently passed, would establish federal oversight of stablecoin issuers, requiring them to meet reserve, audit and registration standards under a new regulatory framework.
2) The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would seek to clarify when cryptos are treated as securities or commodities, splitting oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and setting rules for token issuers and trading platforms.
3) The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would block the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency.
SA commentary: “Even after bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) huge run, I still think there’s a lot more gas in the tank,” writes SA analyst Motti Sapir. “The market still isn’t seeing the full picture, and there’s a real shot for bitcoin to punch past $150,000 if even a few things break right. Sure, we might get a pullback, and yeah, there’s always noise, but I don’t see a better asymmetric bet out there right now.”
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Mixed outlook on earnings season.
Will core CPI inflation for June reflect tariff impacts?
Export licenses: Nvidia to resume H20 chip sales to China.
Moody’s chief economist fires ‘red flare’ on housing market.
The Trade Desk (TTD) jumps after inclusion in S&P 500.
Secondary tariffs for Russia? Would Zelenskyy hit Moscow?
U.S. imposes a 17% duty on fresh tomatoes from Mexico.
Here are the AI models that just won Pentagon contracts.
Meta (META) to bring first 1GW-plus supercluster online.
Starbucks (SBUX) mandates employees return to the office.
Federal government pulls back from student lending.
House appropriations bill blocks marijuana rescheduling.
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines did well; Taiwan was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the downside. Norway is up, but Denmark, Turkey, Germany, Greece, and Sweden are down. Futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Needs to be strong
Second-quarter earnings are on tap, with a week full of reports from companies in many different sectors. Tuesday will see the big banks publish their numbers, such as JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), while Wednesday will feature the healthcare industry and semiconductors, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and ASML (ASML). Even more diversity is on tap for Thursday and Friday, with figures from Netflix (NFLX), GE Aerospace (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), and American Express (AXP). See the full schedule
Backdrop: Stocks recently logged a major comeback, hitting fresh record highs after getting shaken by “Liberation Day” tariffs only months earlier. Trade deals are starting to be inked with some of America’s largest trading partners, though uncertainty remains amid threats to Japan, the European Union, and others. Macroeconomic data this week will also be important, with releases ranging from the consumer price index to retail sales.
Earnings season can also give a new impetus to equities. The biggest tailwind for S&P 500 (SPY) companies is likely to be the weak dollar, given that the group makes around 40% of its revenue from international markets. Lowered estimates mean that it’ll be easier for corporations to post beats, while expectations of lower interest rates and more certainty can show up in guidance.
SA commentary: “While overall tariff rates are already at a very high level (compared to recent history), these haven’t lifted long-term inflation skepticism to new highs. Furthermore, Trump’s ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill,’ which has been signed into law, promises to deliver a further boost to the U.S. economy, albeit at the cost of higher long-term fiscal debt,” Investing Group Leader JR Research writes in We Better Hope Q2 Earnings Don’t Disappoint. “Despite the S&P 500 reaching new highs, only 63% of stocks are above their 200-day MA, highlighting a worrying bifurcation in market breadth. Market valuations are elevated, with the S&P 500’s forward earnings multiple now above 22x, so strong Q2 earnings and guidance are critical.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Superman (WBD) bags $122M to lead weekend box-office haul.
Hassett: Fed’s Powell may face dismissal over building renovation.
As bitcoin soars past $120K, altcoins draw corporate attention.
Utilities seek big hikes in electricity rates as AI demand booms.
European roundup: EU holds off on tariffs and Patriot to Ukraine.
SpaceX (SPACE) said to commit $2B to Elon Musk’s startup xAI.
Space, defense tech startup Firefly Aerospace (FLY) files for IPO.
Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day drives 30% jump in online spending.
Air India crash report: No immediate action for Boeing (BA), GE.
Don’t worry about Nvidia chips for China’s military – CEO Huang.
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