Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines did well; China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently getting hit hard. Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, and Sweden are down more than 1%. Futures in the States point to a moderate-to-big gap down opens for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Market is Getting Thinner —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Customs currency
The U.S. Treasury is set to see another big cash windfall after fresh tariffs were imposed on much of the globe following an August 1 deadline. Even countries that have reached new trade understandings with the United States have still had to agree to what was once considered steep tariff rates, like the 15% levies imposed on Japan and the European Union. Markets have taken a dip on this new reality, but stocks are still near record highs and have not yet displayed the panic seen in the aftermath of “Liberation Day” in April. Plans for Canada and pause for Mexico
Snapshot: Tariffs are paid to the U.S. government by importers, who look to manage the duties in several ways. That includes raising retail prices, which has sparked fears of inflation, but can also be addressed via other methods like discounts, alternative sourcing, lower profit margins, or cutting company costs. The impacts of each have been ferociously debated, but the one thing that is clear is that tariffs are raising a tremendous amount of money for Uncle Sam.
Besides filling U.S. coffers to pay down debt, Trump is seeking to utilize tariffs as a way to spark a manufacturing renaissance in which America once again becomes an industrial powerhouse. The question is whether much of that can come back to the U.S., and how long it would take. Seeking Alpha subscribers are as polarized as politics on this topic, with a clear 50-50 split on Trump’s trade strategy (note that this was one of the biggest surveys by Wall Street Breakfast, with over 4,000 responses!).
Show me the money: Last month, the U.S. Treasury posted a rare $27B June budget surplus for the first time in nearly a decade. It was helped by tariff-related revenues and customs duties, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects to “be well over $300B by the end of the year.” However, the U.S. is still running a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $1.34T, meaning action will also have to be taken on the spending side of the equation in order to achieve a balanced budget.
More Big Tech
For the dessert at the end of a long earnings week… See why Apple (AAPL) logged its best revenue growth since 2021 and the outlook at Amazon (AMZN) amid big spending on the AI arms race.
What else is happening…
Keep an eye on the unemployment rate in July’s jobs report.
Microsoft (MSFT) next to join the $4T market cap club.
Ray Dalio sells his remaining stake in Bridgewater.
Figma (FIG) IPO: Shares more than triple in market debut.
Trump issues ultimatum for Big Pharma to lower prices.
UnitedHealth replaces CFO in latest leadership shakeup.
Chevron (CVX) to deliver oil to Venezuela under new terms.
Robust forecast from Reddit (RDDT) drives shares higher.
Palantir (PLTR) in U.S. Army enterprise deal worth up to $10B.
SEC’s Atkins unveils ‘Project Crypto’ in big win for industry.
What’s the best way to monetize Fannie and Freddie?
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. Japan and Taiwan did well, but China, Hong Kong, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines posted moderate or big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. Turkey, Germany, Spain, and Portugal are up; Denmark, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and Austria are down. Futures in the States point towards a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: How to Identify the Best Charts —————
The dollar is down slightly. Oil is down; copper is down 22%. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
HONEST Act
While the congressional stock trading question has played out on Capitol Hill for years, the debate saw some renewed momentum this week. A bill sponsored by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) cleared the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee by an 8-7 vote along party lines, with all Republicans voting against the measure except for Hawley. GOP members cited several different reasons for their disapproval, including rushed legislation, discouraging some from holding office, concessions to the executive branch, or just another way to target the White House.
Snapshot: Members of Congress have a lot of privileged and classified information that could move stock prices (think back to COVID pandemic), as well as financial incentives from companies that routinely lobby Congress. Those decisions could also play a role in how much a given stock is worth, and Congress sought to counteract that in 2012 by passing a bill known as the STOCK Act. While the legislation requires lawmakers to disclose trades within 45 days, many say it doesn’t do enough to prevent insider trading and conflicts of interest.
The new bill by Hawley is similar to the PELOSI Act he introduced in 2023, though that one didn’t make it out of committee. While President Trump initially expressed interest in the bill, his tone changed after the partisan divide, as well as Hawley’s vote against an amendment that would have investigated Nancy Pelosi’s past stock trades. Senate Majority Leader John Thune will now have to decide whether to bring the bill to a floor vote, but the chances of it moving forward are looking slim.
What’s in the bill: The new measure, called the HONEST Act, would ban members of Congress and their spouses from trading stocks while in office, requiring them to gradually divest their shares. It would also apply to the president and vice president, but that provision would only apply to an elected official’s next term (meaning after President Trump and JD Vance leave office). The bill would also seek to close other loopholes surrounding trades, as well as written certification requirements and compliance audits.
Big boost from Big Tech
Earnings are propelling markets again… Check out key takeaways from blowout revenues at Meta (META) and the plans by Microsoft (MSFT) to spend more than $30B this quarter.
What else is happening…
Fed’s Powell douses September rate cut hopes, yields jump.
Wedbush: Palo Alto’s (PANW) CyberArk deal is a home run.
Trump announces South Korea trade deal with 15% tariff rate.
U.S. crude hits $70 as Trump threatens India over Russia ties.
Chinese e-commerce stocks fall as ‘de minimis’ loophole ended.
Carvana (CVNA) eyes 3M annual car sales within 10 years.
Ford (F) takes $800M tariff hit, sees bigger impact this year.
Trump baby accounts ‘a backdoor’ for privatizing Social Security?
Newsom seeks $18B more for California utilities wildfire fund.
Comex copper plunges as tariffs only hit semi-finished products.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and Thailand did well; Hong Kong, New Zealand, and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed and mostly quiet. Turkey, Italy, and Saudi Arabia are up; Denmark, Norway, and Israel are down. Futures in the States point towards a slightly positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: How to Identify the Best Charts —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up small amounts. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Timing is everything
Given a solid U.S. economy and low unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve today is widely expected to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The more significant part of the gathering will be whether the decision is unanimous or what signals Fed Chair Jerome Powell can provide about the future. President Trump has consistently urged Powell to cut rates, arguing that the move is needed to lower the government’s interest payments and to make mortgages more affordable.
Bigger picture: A key reason for the Fed holding rates steady since the start of the year is the uncertain effect of tariffs on inflation. “We’re starting to get more clarity on at least the rate of tariffs with sound larger counterparties, with the EU being significant,” Jeffrey Rosenkranz, portfolio manager at Shelton Capital, said in an interview with Seeking Alpha. Mexico and Canada are “also very important,” but the Trump administration hasn’t spoken much about that. “It’s still going to take a while” for tariffs to wend their way to prices, “but I think even the Fed realizes they can’t wait for all of that information to come in.”
“More to the point is: What does the posture look like for September?” Rosenkranz continues. “Which is the bigger risk — to move too fast or to move too slow? There have been some comments that suggest one or two dissents [at the meeting], and it will be interesting to see if Powell gets cohesion and unanimity, or if he allows or is okay with some dissent.” Both Trump appointees (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) may break ranks, marking the first time in over three decades that two governors will have voted against a policy decision.
SA Sentiment: Expectations for only one rate cut in 2025 have skyrocketed since the beginning of the year, with 56% of participants in Seeking Alpha’s Sentiment Survey for July seeing that as the most likely outcome. That’s up from 48% last month and the 23% seen in January. The results are based on an average of around 1,000 responses, with the survey available each month in Wall Street Breakfast.
What else is happening…
Russia earthquake: U.S. West Coast is on tsunami watch.
UnitedHealth (UNH) outlook disappoints amid rising costs.
Starbucks (SBUX) turnaround showing signs of traction.
The creation of the first U.S. transcontinental railroad.
Tesla (TSLA) strikes $4.3B battery deal with LG Energy.
Tariff pain: Procter & Gamble (PG) warns of price hikes.
UPS tumbles after pulling guidance; Selloff hits FedEx (FDX).
Anthropic eyes deal to raise new capital at $170B valuation.
Palo Alto (PANW) acquisition of CyberArk (CYBR) would bolster AI.
New WY data center will use more power than every home in the state.
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. China, South Korea, India, and Thailand did well; Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing well. Denmark is getting hit hard, but Poland, France, Germany, Greece, Spain, Italy, and Sweden are up. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— MoneyShow Presentation: How Far Can AI Take the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Optimism grows
The summer is helping add heat to the IPO market. That’s especially true in the sectors of the future, where new offerings had been on pause pending more favorable conditions. While sluggish activity has been seen in recent years, the successful IPOs of AI cloud player CoreWeave (CRWV) and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) have helped improve sentiment for going public.
Why now? Investors are once again hungry for new returns, with the stock market at fresh record highs. Stability has also been seen with the VIX near a 12-month low amid a return to dealmaking and more clarity surrounding regulatory frameworks. An upcoming easing cycle from the Federal Reserve is additionally anticipated, with a more definitive interest rate environment for raising capital.
Up next: Space startup Firefly Aerospace (FLY) has kicked off its roadshow following a successful moon landing and is set to become the third space IPO of 2025 after Karman (KRMN) and Voyager Technologies (VOYG). A highly anticipated offering from design software maker Figma (FIG) is also scheduled to start trading this week, which could help persuade other large private firms to join the public party. Other contenders on the IPO list include “buy now, pay later” leader Klarna, chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS), and ticket marketplace StubHub (STUB).
SA commentary: “Hopes were high coming into Trump 2.0 that capital markets would open, but the first handful of months into the new administration were anything but an unleashing of animal spirits,” wrote SA analyst Mike Zaccardi. “Instead, Trump and his advisors focused on tariffs, which sent a tsunami of volatility across global markets. Now, though, the tide appears to be shifting.”
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Even split on President Trump’s trade strategy.
Nvidia (NVDA) said to order 300K H20 chips from Taiwan Semi (TSM).
Here’s what the split will look like for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
Is the US-EU $750B energy trade deal an ‘impossible’ goal?
The next expansion of Waymo’s (GOOGL) robotaxi service: Dallas.
U.S. may be considering value-based fee structure on patents.
Truth Social’s (DJT) Bitcoin ETF decision delayed by SEC.
Albertsons (ACI) and Kroger (KR) continue to fight legal battles.
Baker Hughes (BKR) is nearing a $13.6B cash deal for this company.
Report: Medicare Part D premiums will sharply rise in 2026.
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Good morning. Happy Monday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, and Indonesia did well; Japan, India, and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, and Israel are up; Poland, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— MoneyShow Presentation: How Far Can AI Take the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Adding it all up
It was only months ago that markets freaked out over double-digit tariff rates, but that appears to be no longer the case. The S&P 500 (SP500) has continued its record roll since Vietnam agreed to a 20% U.S. tariff earlier this month, while equities climbed further after a 15% tariff was imposed on Japanese goods last week. Futures are once again pointing higher following a weekend trade deal between the U.S. and the EU that imposed a 15% baseline tariff on the latter’s exports. See the full details here
Thought bubble: The agreements will bring heavy investment into the United States, while aiming to reshore America’s industrial base that had moved overseas. They also avoid the prospect of an all-out trade war, giving investors clarity on how things will play out on the trade front. Stock markets of countries getting hit with the higher levies have also soared in response, as the new tariffs – even if elevated – were less than the hefty “Liberation Day” rates unveiled back in April.
“Today’s deal creates certainty in uncertain times,” EU President Ursula von der Leyen declared, bringing up the key word that markets love the most. “It delivers stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic… 15% is not to be underestimated, but it is the best we could get.”
Blueprint: Much of Trump’s strategy playbook has been transplanted from the world of real estate to international trade. That includes Art of the Deal concepts like his negotiating style of “aiming very high, and then pushing and pushing to get what I’m after” and “sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition.” It also involves getting press by doing things that are a “little outrageous, or bold or controversial,” but most importantly, making sure that there is enough leverage to not “seem desperate.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Markets face crucial week with Fed decision and Big Tech.
Earnings: 80% of companies delivered EPS wins last week.
Citi (C) launches high-end credit card to challenge rivals.
Which stocks could benefit from the Golden Dome project?
Boeing (BA) faces union strike threat in St. Louis.
Musk confirms Tesla (TSLA)-Samsung $16.5B chip supply deal.
EPA set to strike down legal foundation of climate regulations.
Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC) nearing merger.
Report: RFK Jr. to fire all members of Obamacare task force.
SA Asks: Are meme stocks back, and, if so, why?
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