Here’s a video discussing what I see as the current state of things.
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Here’s a video discussing what I see as the current state of things.
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Jason really liked this video. Do you subscribe to Sell in May and Go away at all ?
I’m aware of it like everyone else, but I would never trade off such info. I’ll trade whatever happens. Those types of rules only work if you employ them over and over for many many years.
Is a lower dollar considerd good for the stock market? Also good for exporters. What is it bad for? Bonds? Why does oil do worse with a lower dollar?
If the currency gets devalued, the price of everything goes up…especially commodities.
What’s it bad for? It’s bad for retired folks on fixed income. They get totally screwed.
It’s good for anyone (or anything) that has lots of debt because they can pay off today’s debt with inflated and devalued dollars tomorrow.
Jason you are living on the edge of hope that the market will rise again. Truth is next week is a news week and it will blow the market indices all over. I will Wait a few days to attempt any trades.
Ron’s questions show the confusion that charactrizes the markets today. A weak dollar is bad for a host of reasons, but it is occuring now because there is legimate fear the USA is not taking its debts seriously. Eventually we will raise the debt ceiling and move on.
When the dollar falls everything priced in dollars rises in cost, including stocks oil and gold and silver. But such rises do not reflect a gain in purchasing power. Fed Money printing beggers the citizens who must use the currency to live. Most of us hold some precious metals as a value hedge. When we get a clearer picture the Fed and Treasury will announce a program of financial repression forcing citizens to conform to restrictions on asset deployment, interest rate levels, and cross border transactions. They will also seek 3-5% inflation to make debts payments easier (cheaper dollars) while shrinking the fixed debt in current inflated terms.
You have not seen anything yet. Stocks are where most of will hid out while the government seeks to work out our future. look at foods, medicine, fuels, and consumer necessities of any strip.
whidbey…I don’t disagree with you, but the same could have been said two years ago, and here we are in the midst of one of the greatest rallies in history. Being bullish has paid off very well…whether right or wrong.
ther are always 2 ways of looking at many things—greatest rallies in history or deadcat bounce from 09 lows
my definition of UPTREND IS HH-HL’S—many a index are not at new highs and some even cant get through the 50% retracement–oz–xjo or aord ect
but Jason u make some good points in ur vidio and i love talk about internals
–the 2 or 3 day gap up islands can start a new fast move up and on many a chart i can see a reverse H/S head/shoulders—OR is this a continuation of the sideways distribution needed to end a trend……………..?
i have 1352-5 spx and 10600ish to watch—but atm NO ONE can say witch
for those that think the usa govt and fed want a low usd,BUY OZ ROO’S–no thats not kangaroos the ROO is a aussie gold coin
i personally dont think usa govt will get away with it and u will have deflation before real inflation
we have a sector rotation out of small mid caps with large pe ratios to large caps and if that fails –watch out below
my favourite internal –the NYSE TICK IND,which i use on my 1 and 5 min charts
on the day chart is showing a tick extream over positive 1000 on the 19/4 to a continued loss of momentum divergence to price on the 21/4
the VIX is also setting up as a bearish signal–when the bigboys get set up short it will go up
im not long ,but waiting to dump the pump—i could be wrong –no one knows
Aussie…can you post an example of your TICK chart?
i dont know how to do that Jason
i have it as a proprietry ind on esignal
its a graph that goes from plus2000 to the zero line to minus 2000
but the plus1000 and minus 1000 is consider to be a extreme
it measures the amount of shares at any one time is being traded on the uptick ie ask price
minus those traded at the bid or low price and u get a number
its a fairly comonly used chart i think–i have it at the bottom of my dji 5 min chart and esm1 i min chart
sorry but i only know esignal platform in usa–but at least u know what it does
atm we have opened usa below the zero line but close to
please ask further if u need
Now that I’ve reread your post I realize those are dates you mentioned. After first I thought they were moving averages on the TICK chart. 🙂
i only mentioned it because elliott wave picked up on the divergance as well in their fri short term up date,with a chart posted
i beleive Neals pattern trapper follows it as well
trained to know the significance of it i can almost plot price with out a price chart
but great for divergences and extremes
ah!! yes us aussies use date month year
oops day month
Re: The Put/Call ratio chart.
I assume it’s total PUT’s divided by total CALL’s. If high then PUT’s outnumber CALL’s. Since the $CPC highs are corresponding to $SPX low I’m inferring options are being used as a hedge. Is there a way to determine the premium of the option’s premium? Say option PRICE divided by Black-Scholes. A higher reading would indicate a premium for the premium. Just a thought.
Great video presentation – liked it a lot. When you say “the trend is up” – how far out in the future are you looking; 3 months, 6 months, 1 year? Are you able to give your outlook for 3-years out? Thanks