Good morning. Happy Friday. Happy Employment numbers day.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed down across the board. Japan and S. Korea lost about 1.5%. Europe is currenly mixed and without any standout winners or losers. Futures here in the States suggest a positive open for the cash market, but this of course can change when the employment data is released.
Here are the numbers:
unemployment rate: 9.0% (from 8.8%)
nonfarm payrolls: up 244K (vs. 186K estimated)
private payrolls: up 268K (vs. 200K estimated)
average workweek: will post when I get data
hourly earnings: 0.1% (vs. 0.2% estimated)
The market’s reaction to the news has been very positive. Futures have jumped and now indicate a large gap up for the cash market that will put the S&P near yesterday’s high and Wednesday’s close.
I still consider the long term trends to be up. The indexes continue to make higher lows and higher highs, and other than a couple commodities (silver, oil), this week’s pullback has not been out of the ordinary. This doesn’t mean I hold longs, I don’t. I sold my longs on Monday and bought reverse ETFs. Then I sold those ETFs yesterday.
Given that it’s a Friday and the charts are looking messy, I don’t see a reason to be super aggressive here. There are very few good looking long set ups, and most shorts are too far gone to chase. Trading is not hard when you take the easy and obvious trade and let the rest go by. Right now there aren’t many high-probability set ups, so that means I do much more watching than trading…especially considering it’s a Friday.
My hunch is we go down again, take out yesterday’s low and have a more complete wash out. I’d be very surprised if the market gapped up today and took off. Then again, we know many big moves start with an unfilled gap up. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (May 6)”
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I tell you why I am still bullish, and it’s got nothing to do
with technicsl analysis at all. If we were truly in a bear
market you would wake up and find the futures down 100 to 200.
So this week it has been a soft move to the downside with the
exception of the commodities. As long as the Fed remains
in the background they will prevent any big meltdowns. HW
Howard’s innocence is touching, “Someone is in charge”.
Grow up Howie boy before it hurts, “Random” is thy middle name.
Trend is up and I went long on the close yesterday to be greedy.
And I am playing bonds on long side.
Still short of silver and gold, expecting a further
down movement over the summer.
Whidbey, if you are still short silver and gold
you’d better crack open your piggy bank and
start counting your pennies. HW
Would anyone care to comment on why interest rates (short & long term) continued to fall while the stock market, commodities, gold etc were rising to new highs until this week? Seems to me that interest ratres are signaling an economic slow down, deflation over inflation etc. in the coming quarters. Who’s right – the bond or the stock/commodity/gold markets? I need to know before I order those T-Shirts from Neal, or are they sold out?
I am saddened by the fact that Neal did not mention
me or my dog Max in his last post. Poo-hoo. HW
i just woke up–telepathic u know–so maybe we will go down now–for a while
—am short now
closed out part of dji-spx-ndx-ftse-dax at tick extreme–will let the rest run to piviot
flat now at main piviot and another tick extreme
euro and usd have broke some key levels
Neal–ive emailed Bob
nite all
Fri 2pm It looks like Silver is getting ready
to break out one way or the other right now.
Neal – about the T-Shirt(s). I’d like for you to send it to Max, care of Howard. Max should be a size “S”. As for me, I’d like a tin foil hat, if you have any in stock. Please let me know asap and the price. I’m a size 6&7/8.
The bond boys seem to be sending a bearish message for the stocks/comodities/precious metals. Maybe Ben wants (needs) a big correction to get everyone begging for QE3 later this year. I’m going to stay long bonds for now and wait for the next Bernanke “inflate or die” attempt to stop the “deleveraging” process. My guess is deflation first and then we buy hard assets again later for the hyper inflation that follows. You’re right, Neal, it’s a rigged game. I’m beginning to think it really is about destroying the $ & setting up a world currency. So send me that tin foil hat, pronto!
Pete, just to catch you up on things: Leavitt Brothers is
doing a fine job, and is about to re-launch their options
trading service. Stay in touch, have a good weekend. HW
Jason,
When you got short through the etf’s on Monday, did you post this idea in your before the open blog or did you mention on the premium service?
thanks. Peter
Hi Peter,
I posted my note on the message board of the paid service. Then on Thursday I posted that I was taking profits. I usually don’t post my trades, but because the market had changed so fast, I felt obligated because I didn’t want to wait until I wrote my report after the close.
Jason