Before the Open (May 16)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down – Australia, Hong Kong, India and Taiwan lost more than 1%. Europe is currently down across the board – France, Germany and Amsterdam are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towads a gap dow for the cash market which will open the indexes at or below Friday’s low.

The dollar is up. Gold, silver and oil are down.
I don’t have much to say that I didn’t say over the weekend in the report posted Sunday morning. The market was in a fragile position when last week began, and after 5 days of trading, nothing was resolved, and the fragile condition remains. The difference now is prices have had more time to coil up due to at least one lower high and one higher low. Here are the 60-min index charts. For two weeks dips have gotten bought and rallies sold, but sooner or later odds favor a trending move out of these patterns.

Options expire this week – this has tended to be a positive for the market. I’ll be posting my monthly Open-Interest report after today’s close. The other positives such as the presidential cycle are longer term positives and therefore have no bearing on what happens day to day or even week to week.
I sold my longs the day after bin-Laden was killed and have been mostly laying low since. I like to play trends, and obviously we haven’t had a trend the last couple weeks. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (May 16)”

    1. Whidbey, gosh! what happened? Last Friday you said
      that the S&P was going to 1370. Now, all of a
      sudden you got bearish? Better tweak those
      indicators of yours buddy boy. HW

  2. i have sols and am waiting for my 2nd reaload
    these markets are good for daytraders only
    position and swing traders need to wait,–their turn is coming

  4. Are the results from the polls in yet regarding Neal’s future on this site? Exit polls on FRI seemed to indicate a low turnout and “too close to call” vote.
    Howard – please look into this.

  5. McHugh (famous for his Elliott Wave Theory) states these
    up and down violent movements should resolve itself
    one way or anther. Isn’t that always the case? HW
    Ps. Neal is in the doghouse for an indefinite
    period of time.

  6. If you believe that the Russell 2000 (RUT) leads the indexes both ways, please note that there are signs of a “head & shoulders” top forming with the neckline corresponding to the 50 day ema. Today’s low is below the neckline so the bears have every opportunity to pressure the market. I know Neal frowns on such chart formations, but given all the negative divergences out there, etc., it may be something worth watching.
    Howard – how does Max feel about Neal being in the doghouse? Whose doghouse is it, anyway?

  7. Howard – you and I are doing our best to make up for Neal’s absence. Someone else will have to step up today.
    I’m leaving soon to have lunch with Chuck Plosser from the Philly FED. I’m going to load his arteries up with a cheesesteak and prod him to spill the beans on the FED’s plans for the stock, commodity, gold & currency markets – both short & longer term. I’ll share the info exclusively on this site later in the week. I’m meeting Chuck at noon EDT near the Liberty Bell. Wish me luck, everyone!

  8. well ndx was the best short,but made money on all the indexes plus europe
    –all both premarket and just gone flat for this run
    opts ex looks like playing out similar to mar quad witching
    they take it to bottom then work their way up intra day then down again
    the bears won the march event–lets see what happens this time
    i will look forward to Jasons open interest report
    –nite all

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