Before the Open (Jun 27)

Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down – Australia, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea each lost around 1%. Europe currently leans to the upside, but other than Stockholm (up 0.9%), gains and losses are very small. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Gold, silver and oil are down but not by much.
I don’t have much to add to my weekend comments. Most traders are bearish (they should be, the trend since early May has been down). Some are so bearish, they expect the market to take out its March low and completely fall apart. Others believe such movement will eventually play out but are open to a bounce in the near term since the indexes are near support and several indicators are at oversold levels. I’m bearish too, but I don’t think taking out the March low guarantees the market will collapse. I’ve seen too many false breakdowns for me to get overly excited about a huge move down. I’ve seen too many topping patterns that morphed into falling wedges to assume taking out a single level will make all the bulls run for cover. And I also see a support level between 1185 and 1200 on the S&P (see chart below).

You have to be short here because that’s the direction of the trend. But we’re close to a critical level, so I don’t think it’s wise to assume something will happen. The unexpected does somethings happen, so be on your toes. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers