Before the Open (Jul 15)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Taiwan rallied 1.1%, otherwise there were no big winners or losers. Europe is currently mostly down. Stockholm is down 0.9%, otherwise there are no standouts. Futures here in the States point towards a positive open for the cash market.

One week removed from its best week in two years, the market is on the brink of its worst week since last summer. Easy come, easy go. As good as things looked just two weeks ago when many stocks went vertical, the market looks equally bad right now.
The overall trend remains up, but we don’t trade the overall trend. The intermediate term trend is neutral. After all, the market has been range bound since the beginning of the year. On a short term basis, the market is in bad shape right now. Every little intraday pop gets sold into, and all the indexes have closed near their LODs this week. There is no buying interest.
Heading into this week I said the intensity of the correction would tell us how healthy the market is, that if volume was light and sellers lacked enthusiasm and energy, odds favored higher prices, but if the pullback was forceful, everything gets wiped out and we start our short term analysis from scratch. It’s pretty obvious how intense the correction has been.
The one glimmer of hope is the debt ceiling. If it gets raised, the market will certainly surge to the upside. But considering what’s happened this week, a quick surge is likely to be faded.
I posted some set ups on the message board. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
today’s upgrades/downgrades
yesterday’s sector performance
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jul 15)”

  3. The last three trading session we have seen the bulls
    get a grip on things at the opening session, only to
    see the markets fade towards the end of the day.
    “Dumb money buys the markets in the morning, and
    Smart money sells in the afternoon.” HW

    1. Yep, and it looks like they’re doing it today. I’m short the bell.
      AussieJS, what time (ETZ) do you start watching the markets? I’ve noticed increased activity at 6:30AM ETZ on the ESU1.
      Looks like support at 1310 on the ESU1. Oh, well I’m out.

  4. third straight gap up day, not gaining much ground once again. oe might hold the market today, but we may see the ramifications next week.

  6. well i just made a lot more than lunch money on ftse-dax-dji-spx-ndx
    go the bulls i need to reload
    say high to moses for me -i last meet him in london a few years back

  7. I find it puzzling that some on this site insist on criticising Jason’s comments in the apparent belief that everyone who visits the site is a “day trader” or short term trader.
    I find Jason’s comments appropriate for a “swing trader” and take it in that context. Isn’t this an open forum to exchange points of view and trading techniques? I’m all for the light “banter” and kidding around but the people who don’t comment and view this site may actually benefit from thoughtful comments on technical analysis from those who do comment here. None of us has the “Holy Grail” when it comes to trading techniques, or am I wrong?
    Oh well, enough of that. Chuck Plosser called me again. Seems BEN is questioning whether the BOYZ have his back once again. We should know shortly about the bullish “triangle” idea or the bearish “Head & Shoulders”. It will affect my decision to order Neal’s DOW 13,000 T-Shirts or not, which is the real issue on this site!

    1. Pete,as a daytrader i find Jasons common sence comments refreshing and gives me a overall view of things
      to often we can get immersed in our own sytle and i have not found a more senseable easy to understand summary than Jasons
      –i just love this whipsaw–europe bank stress tests out in a hour

  9. Whoopee! I don’t have to dumpster dive this weekend, but the 1308 resistance is kicking in. Darn! I was hoping I get enough to see the Harry Potter movie.
    PeteM, Tell Ben to complement the Boyz. Maybe that’ll get’em on the buy side.

    1. RichE – seriously, I think the markets are at a critical juncture right in here. If we’ve seen the end of the bull run from MAR’09 with the MAY hi, we need to see some downside acceleration soon, like now or in the next few trading days. Otherwise, I think we’re looking at contiuing corrective action off the MAY high and a new high is still possible. I think the SPX 1295 area (particularly 1298) is important support near term.
      The BOYZ will have the ultimate say here. Have they completed their distribution and have they already begun shorting or do they want to run it up one last time and do a “pop & drop”.
      In terms of time, maybe it gets resolved in SEPT or maybe we see it within a week’s trading.

      1. By, ‘seriously’ I assume you mean logic and reason. IMO the market is too emotional to corrupt to apply technical analysis. It’s becoming quite clear that the elected don’t have a clue how to run a balanced budget. Hopefully the not corrupt business stewards will apply pressure to put the U.S. on an honest road before it’s driven off the cliff.
        I don’t think it’s a matter of seeing the end of a BULL or BEAR, but seeing the end of corruption and vote buying.
        Congress has no reason to save money and every reason to spend and buy votes. This won’t change until stewards step up to the plate.

  10. I think KKD has run the course unless they get the latte machine working. Add in IPO DNKN and I think KKD and SBUX will be in trouble. I think DNKN has a better product, doughnuts and coffee, I think mgmt. sees the writing on the wall. If the IPO goes well, DNKN will have cash to expand.

  11. Neal – see, you just can’t help yourself,can you? Chuck Plosser doesn’t know who you are either! But, Apple isn’t part of the DOW and if the Cubs had the Phillies’ pitching staff they might be in first place in their division. See what I mean? I’ll let you know if I still want a DOW 13,000 T-Shirt, perhaps by next week. Tell me where you had them made and I’ll tell you what size I want to order.

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