Before the Open (Dec 23)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Friday.
The market was incredibly slow yesterday; today it’ll be even slower. So instead making a few meaningless comments here, I’ll leave you with some words of wisdom as we move closer to a new year.

headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Dec 23)”

  2. “I’d rather a full bottle in front of me than a full frontal lobotomy”
    Make the following statement to someone and see if they recognise that you are speaking English:
    “In mud eels are; in clay none are”
    Merry Christmas to all, and all the best for 2012.
    Interesting times are upon us. – CH

  3. what if the market breaks out to uptrend
    what if it is held at spx res 1260-67
    ……..oh well…….
    london closed at quad witch strike——5500
    as was always intended

  4. PeteM – On Wednesday I trusted your analysis regarding 1225-1231. In all honesty I was able to go in quicker with my TYH long bc my portfolio was uncomfortably slightly net short on Weds AM.
    Otherwise, I like u, may have waited in vain for the SPX 1225 entry.
    Thanks for what u bring to the board.

    1. Chris – Last eve, I took a step back to look at the longer term daily/weekly charts before getting back to the hourly charts. The 200 day SMA (1259)has everyone’s focus as it intersects the triangle formation trendline pointed out by Jason and others.
      From an EW perspective, this level now has significance as well since a breach of this level leaves open a more bullish advance potential. Here’s what I mean by that. Going back to the OCT low of SPX 1075, the rally to 1292 is best interpreted as a 3 wave advance for a wave A and the pullback to the the NOV low of 1158 is also a 3 wave decline (wave B). The question now is, what from does wave C upward take, i.e. 3 (less bullish targeting 1300-1330) or 5 waves (more bullish targeting 1370 or even higher)?
      IMO, you can count a smaller 5 waves up from 1158 to 1267 as either wave 1 (of an anticpated 5 waves up to complete larger wave C) with the pullback to 1202 as wave 2 OR it’s something I didn’t consider until last eve, i.e. the rally from 1158 to 1267 is wave “a” (of an anticipated 3 wave advance for wave C) AND WAVE “b” IS TAKING THE FORM OF A TRIANGLE. Within that triangle it’s now imperative that we see a decline from 1259ish (or from lower than 1267) to keep this idea alive. Otherwise, we are now in wave 3 upward (as long as 1242ish isn’t broken first). Either way, we should have at least some form of pullback now.

  8. Just in case we’re seeing a “wedge” formation forming here (aka “ending diagonal” in EW terms)on the 5, 15 minute charts etc, I’m preparing to take a short position if I think I see signs of a completion of that pattern.

  9. Trying to remain objective, the “wedge” (EW “ending diagonal”) pattern ain’t happening and, IMO, the idea of a more bullish 3rd wave upward “extension” since WED SPX 1230ish is getting more compelling. In addition, if you look at the daily chart of the DJIA, there appears to be a bullish H&S formation with a breakout occuring in conjunction with the SPX triangle breakout. The fact that SPX is “drifting” upward may coincide with the idea of a 3rd wave extention in progress, where there are smaller internal 1 & 2 wave patterns forming prior to a more explosive 3rd within a 3rd etc wave thrust with big upside momentum. That may wait until next week on a test/breakthrough of 1267. At this point, I think there’s a growing probability that next week could see an explosive rally in a short time frame going into the early new year. At this point, I’d need to see at least a break below 1254 to reconsider again.

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