Before the Open (Jan 25)

Posted on by Jason Leavitt

Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy Fed Day.
Europe is currently trading mostly down. Austria is up 1.3%. Switzerland is down 1.2%. Futures here in the States point towards a negative open for the cash market.

The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down.
Today is Fed Day. It’s the day the Fed sets the Discount Rate and targets the Overnight Rate. Since the Fed has been pretty open about their position, it’s silly to expect them to change anything. Their statement on the other hand will be closely read, but I don’t think anything noteworthy will happen. In my opinion, Wall St. just wants to get this over with so they can re-focus on earnings and Greece etc.
When I look at the index charts I see a broken record…same old same old day after day…prices are grinding up, and since we haven’t had back to back down days in over a month, there has been no pullback or correction or resting period to speak of. It’s been very one dimensional – not easy to trade. The reason why is simple. When the market dips within an uptrend, we get to see which stocks fall out of their patterns and which hold up well. This anecdotal relative strength reading helps us decide which stocks to buy on the following leg up. The market tells us which stocks are the leaders and which are the laggards. This is happening right now but to a much lessor extent. Oh well.
My near term target remains cautiously bullish. My intermediate term target remains bullish.
Keep in mind the market tends to reverse its post-Fed move the following day, so a move up into today’s close is likely to get sold into tomorrow and vice versa. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jan 25)”

  1. Kept my last 3rd of AAPL into earnings, it is now spiking again in pre mrkt. Long term charts are showing it has started going parabolic. closed 300 in after mrkt, looking to close last 200 in pre mrkt / at the open.
    Still looking for more upside after a pullback / horizontal wash out and looking for a split.
    This may mark a top for AAPL. As for the rest of the mrkt?? There are other opportunities.
    Good luck.

  7. sold the ndx100 -dji-spx on asian open
    what a great 30 odd point ndx100 move
    could it be as simple as the top is in world wide—who cares
    i trade the reality of the 1 -5 min markets
    i had a email from that dow 13000 site–he was baging daytraders on leavitt bros site
    bitter losser—i wish him well

  8. I wish you luck on the 1-5m. Maybe works for futures but for me anything below 30m is noise, thats not how the big money is made. As great trader and friend once advised, trade less, analyze more. Go for the big moves not the chicken ‘bleep’ noise.

      1. Yes, agree.
        I am working on trading in all time frames but 30m, sometimes 10m is my limit. Can’t move large funds that fast unless its a fatty like AAPL CMG BIDU etc.
        I do wish Ben would stop his PR sessions seems to make the mrkts take a nap. Just give us the candy and go away.

    1. Raymond – in line with your comments, we could be looking at an EW 4th wave triangle forming in SPX prior to a 5th wave upward move. I note the Dow is weaker looking while the NDX & RUT charge ahead. Risk trade is on.
      As you say, “the shell game continues” as Benny & the FEDS continue their charade. How long can they and their world bank buddies continue to delay the inevitable? Maybe weeks or maybe months, but not much beyond that, IMO.

      1. You know we should not curse the Feds nor get suckered by the pundits that can’t trade worth a damn taking the seeming moral high road and blabbing about how the Feds of the world manipulate things when they probably never worked a real job or contributed to society in their lives.
        Almost every boom has been initiated and ended by the Feds around the world. Read Ken Fisher’s and Niall Ferguson’s works, go back in history and judge for yourself.
        Pop quiz-
        Q – What caused the internet boom? mass greed histeria?
        A – In Feb 1998 Clinton signed the tax relief bill for iternet bznss
        Was it a useless hand out? Tax relief gone, intern is now big bznss, provides jobs….
        Lots of stupid and useless quips but follow the Fed is not one of them, just gotta figure where the heck the Fed is going and if the Mrkt will follow…;)

      2. The shell game I am referring to is the game between the big money and us dumb money.
        Spikes and drops to make us blink, smug comforting rhetoric to make use warm and fuzzy before they rip off our heads…. 😉
        The only shell game the Feds play are
        – we need to make the $ strong – right, lets listen to the trailer trash, keep us too expensive for jobs, keep manufacturing and other jobs overseas, make us perma-slob consumers
        – we need to get rid of the deficit – yes, lets get liquidity out of the economy and the mrkts, great idea!
        The Feds know what they are doing, they are just too slow to react, serve too many masters and are misguided once in a while.

    1. Aussie JS – seems like a 3 wave rally from yesterday’s low in SPX. If so, it could wave “b” of an “abcde” triangle and wave “b” could end around 1319. I’m looking for a reversal in here for a low risk short (but only after a reversal pattern)position. Downside could be minimal, but in case it’s not a triangle and a deeper corrective pattern, I’ll get short with a tight stop loss in mind.

  20. As the great Dan Zanger once said –
    When she buck, jump on and dig the spurs in until her legs buckle….get off when she calms down ….jump on when she get perky and do it again 😉

  22. I’m short SPX at 1320 on what appears to be a reversal pattern with downside impulsive action. As usual, I’ll cover if downside follow through doesn’t occur.

  24. My SPX short position failed to follow through to the downside and I exited earlier at 1321.50 for a small loss. For me, the wave structure in the shorter term is too complicated. When in doubt, I guess I should stay out. As Raymond commented, it’s a slow grind higher.

  26. as Jason says—reversal of fed tomorrow
    where does all the shares/futures the fed buyers go
    good by shy tim grinder
    maybe now a top—who cares
    cheif crazy horse—-cheif sitting bull was my brother
    after hours heading lower—i will keep a eye on it—but its australia day

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