Before the Open (Jun 21)

Good morning from Telluride. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and New Zealand each dropped more than 1%. Europe is currently mixed. Only Norway (down 1%) has moved more than 1%. Futures here in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down.
Normally the market reverses its Fed move, but 1) there is no Fed move to reverse and 2) the announcement came 105 minutes earlier than normal, so traders had plenty of time to unwind or initiate any trades they wished. This means today can be its own day rather than a reaction to yesterday.
I’ve been a little cautious the last two days. The market has been on a nice run (S&P up almost 100 points since the beginning of June) and is in need of a rest. And as a coincidence many groups have recaptured 50% of their downtrends (a key level), and the FOMC provides a nice excuse.
I looked at many charts yesterday; almost nothing stood out and said “trade me.” We’ve had many good trades the last couple weeks, but it’s time to be a little more conservative. I think risk is elevated with regards to chasing stocks higher. Let them come back to you. Let them do some backing and filling. Let them reset. We’ve had a good round of trades; now it’s time to be patient.
The PMI in China dropped. Manufacturers reported the sharpest declined in export orders in three years.
Yields on Spanish 2-year notes dropped…a small amount of relief.
German manufacturing slowed to its lowest pace in three years.
That’s it for now. Play good defense. More after the open.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers