Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a nice weekend.
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So late in the day on Friday the SPX fell to 666 (our target per the daily chart was 665) and then rallied 20 points into the close. I view the move as nothing more than profit taking by the shorts into the weekend. I still believe the charts don’t matter too much. We’re not in unchartered territory, but we are at a level that hasn’t been seen since the mid 90’s.
Every pop gets sold and new lows are made soon after, and as long as “too many” traders continue looking for a bottom, it’s not going to form. Here’s the SPX 60-min chart since the beginning of the year. I guess it’s possible we can grind out way to bottom. At some point in time there will be no one left to sell.
Here’s the SPY chart over the last 7 days. I use it because it shows the gaps better. For what it’s worth, a 10% move off the low only gets us to about 74. That’s how you know the market is in sick condition – when a 10% move only gets you back to a 5-day high.
I don’t have anything else to day right now. I don’t have feel for what will happen today. We got a 20-point rally into the close on Friday, and half that will be given back at today’s open. I could make a case new lows will be made today just as easily as I can fathom some chopping and churning before another move up begins. I’m in cash in will be day trading until I see more clarity.
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today’s upgrades/downgrades
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