The market continues to drift down. Let’s check out the S&P and several key indicators to see when a bottom may be put in place, if a bottom is even in the cards.
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Jason
Nice work.
I also believe we have not seen the bottom. I think we need to see a washout before a significant rally. I would be playing for a wash out but looking at the strong volume on Thursday an up day in the market in small caps such as IWM suggest a period of strength. Fridays gap up and reversal was predicable (that’s how we make money isn’t it). I suspect we may have an upward week this week.
Paul
This was brief yet very detailed overall view of the underlying forces in the market, presented with precision and deep knowledge of the topic. I would strongly recommend listening to. No B.S. approach, not a single word wasted.
Useful review Jason.Suspicious that its is an election market ready to respond to perceptions thatmay be highly transitory. No easy fix is open to Congress, no matter who is president. Taxes rise inevitability in 2013. Exports will hold back manufacturing if the US$ rises over the spring of 2013.
Overall, I do expect gold to move to 1570 eventually, there in to new highs in gold, (~2000) in 2013. My Forex shows the US$ to move to wards 83 at year end; a negative for equities.The Bond might spike to 150 before the top in fixed income and maybe outflows from bonds to equities. But don’t expect a smooth transition. The S&P looks like it wants to return to its JUNE low ~ 1250 in the next months of 2012. It is likely a buy at that point, but no one knows about equities until the Cliff is resolved which is a political problem. If the President is returned to office I will take a major position in platinum