Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. Hong Kong dropped, South Korea and Taiwan rallied. Europe is currently down across the board. Austria, France, Germany, Amsterdam and Greece are posting sizable losses. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down.
The market was doing pretty well yesterday…until the last 90 minutes when the bottom fell out. Was everyone assuming the sequester would be dealt with, and when late afternoon rolled around and reality set in, investors ran for the hills? Who could blame them? There are several reasons the economy has slowly improved and the market is near its highs. One is government spending. Yes we’re a capitalist society blah blah blah, but lets face it. The government spends huge amounts of money, and if they cut back, it will have an affect.
In the last couple years, major issues came and went without a hiccup. Debt ceiling, down grade of US debt, fiscal cliff…all billed as catastrophic and none amounted to anything, so who could blame traders for assuming a deal would agreed upon at the 11th hour? But it didn’t happen. Some industries could be hit hard. Others won’t be effected much.
In the very near term (today), anything goes.
In the intermediate term (next month), my bias is to the downside. With volatility expanding and other indicators indicative of a top, the risk/reward favors a move down.
On a long term basis (entire year), the overall trend is up, and I’m looking for a pretty good 2013.
We’ll see. And as far as trading goes, swing trading is out right now. There are too many swings and sudden reversals to hold traditional swing trades, so we gotta kept things short term.
headlines at Yahoo Finance
headlines at MarketWatch
today’s upgrades/downgrades
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers