Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan, Indonesia, Australia and Hong Kong posted the biggest losses. India and New Zealand did fine. Europe is currently mixed, and there are no big movers. Greece (down 0.55%) is the biggest down market; Spain (up 0.32%) is the biggest up market. Futures here in the States point towards a flat open for the cash market.
The dollar is flat. Oil is up, copper down. Gold and silver are up.
Two days ago I posted the oil chart, noting it was on the brink of breaking out of a 4-month triangle pattern. Game on right now. Oil is up $2.05 as of this writing and has cleared itself from the pattern. Here’s a chart…
Oil has been a mainstay on the Long List for a couple months. Hopefully you’ve played a few set ups from the group…this is where the easy money has come from.
In my eyes the market hasn’t changed this week. Everything that existed when the week began still exists. The trend is up…volume has been ok…volatility has been non-existent. Right now the indexes are consolidating within an uptrend – in fact the S&P is forming a little flag pattern. If the market pulls back, that’s fine. But I’m more interested in buying a dip for a bigger move up than making a few bucks on the way down. The trend is what it is until it changes…and it’s best not to guess when it will change. More after the open.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Statoil (STO -0.75%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Deutsche Bank.
Argus kept a ‘Buy’ rating on Apache (APA +0.38%) and raised its price target on the stock to $118 from $103.
Lufthansa (DLAKY -14.25%) was downgraded to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ at Jefferies.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU -2.59%) fell 7% in pre-market trading after the company lowered guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $1.71-$1.76 from $1.80-$1.90, below consensus of $1.89.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ -1.07%) rose 1.2% in pre-market trading after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell.’
Senator Investment Group reported a 5.5% passive stake in Peabody (BTU +0.37%) .
ImmunoGen (IMGN -1.30%) was upgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Sell’ at UBS.
Vale (VALE -0.15%) was downgraded to ‘Equal Weight’ from ‘Overweight’ at Morgan Stanley.
Achillion (ACHN -6.42%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS.
Restoration Hardware (RH +2.82%) jumped over 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q1 adjusted EPS of 18 cents, well above consensus of 11 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS to $2.24-$2.30 from $2.14-$2.22, higher than consensus of $2.20.
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Today’s economic calendar:
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Import/Export Prices
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Business Inventories
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Notable earnings before today’s open: LULU
Notable earnings after today’s close: FNSR
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers
0 thoughts on “Before the Open (Jun 12)”
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The move down didn’t materialize to the extent I expected Wed. Towards the end of the day,
the bulls rebounded and have held a bullish level overnight. But that hold is tenuous at best.
FYI, behind the scenes, the rollover from the June Futures contract to the Sept is taking place
today so there may be some unusual moves as traders close (sell) Jun and open (buy) Sept.
Just be aware, nothing you can do about it.
Levels:
1943 is the line of demarcation. Above it, bullish. Below it, bearish.
If it holds, target is 1951.
If it breaks, target is 1935 and we’ll stair step lower as I’ve mentioned. If that is the course they take, expect 1925. Then we’ll see if 1925 holds.
If for some reason the market goes ballistic and breaks 1947 thru 1950, that would be bullish. IMHO, that is unlikely today.
Futures were +3.75 to -2.50, now are -2.50 at 9 am.
Interesting perspective. I suspect Jason is correct.
At Mondays close I generated a sell signal. Does not mean the market will drop all that much.. It probably will not go up until the put call ratio approaches one. At that point be long or be wrong.