Before the Open (Oct 16)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan dropped more than 2%, and India, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore fell more than 1%. Europe is currently posting big, across-the-board losses. Spain is down almost 4%, Italy, France, Austria, Belgium, Norway, Switzerland and Prague are down more than 2% and Amsterdam, Stockholm, Greece, London and Germany are down more than 1%. Futures here in the States point toward a big gap down open for the cash market.

The dollar is up. Oil is down another buck, copper is down. Gold and silver are down.
Yesterday, the market staged an impressive rally off its lows. The small caps posted solid gains; the other indexes posted moderate losses but closed well off their lows. Getting follow through on the afternoon rally will be difficult today – or at the very least very challenging – because of the opening hole the market will start in and because oil continues to fall. Oil stocks comprise one of the biggest and most influential groups, so it’ll be very hard for the market to sustain a move up without their participation. Many traders look at tech or the transports as a harbinger for the market. Oil is equally important.
When the closing bell rang yesterday, my very near term bias was to the upside, but given the expected big gap down today, the opening levels will have to hold for me to maintain this.
The overall trend is down. A lot of damage has been done, so for now the bears deserve the benefit of the doubt, not the bulls.
If the movement is driving you nuts, sit out. It takes a skilled short term trader to navigate some of these big intraday swings. More after the open.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Mattel (MAT -0.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 98 cents, below consensus of $1.02.
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB -3.48%) reported Q3 EPS of 39 cents, less than consensus of 43 cents.
Baxter International (BAX -0.76%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.35, better than consensus of $1.31.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH -0.80%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.63, higher than consensus of $1.53.
Goldman Sachs (GS -0.82%) reported Q3 EPS of $4.57, well above consensus of $3.21.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 4.9% passive stake in Dynegy (DYN -1.20%) .
HNI Corporation (HNI +0.39%) reported Q3 EPS of 81 cents, well above consensus of 71 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2014 EPS view to $1.95-$2.00, better than consensus of $1.82.
Transocean (RIG +1.62%) said it received $610 million in new contracts since its September 22 fleet update.
United Rentals (URI +1.06%) rose over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.20, higher than consensus of $2.08.
eBay (EBAY -0.69%) slipped over 2% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 68 cents, better than consensus of 67 cents, although Q3 revenue of $4.35 billion was below consensus of $4.37 billion. The company then lowered gidance on fiscal 2014 revenue to $17.85 billion – $17.95 billion, weaker than consensus of $18.15 billion.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS +1.19%) reported Q3 EPS of 84 cents, lower than consensus of 85 cents.
American Express (AXP -2.19%) reported Q3 EPS of $1.40, higher than consensus of $1.36.
Netflix (NFLX -0.12%) plunged over 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 EPS of 96 cents, better than consensus of 93 cents, but then said its sees Q4 EPS of only 44 cents, well below consensus of 85 cents.
Universal Forest (UFPI +4.29%) reported Q3 EPS of 96 cents, weaker than consensus of 99 cents.
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Thursday’s economic calendar:
8:00 Fed’s Plosser: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:15 Industrial Production
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:30 PM Fed’s Kocherlakota Speech
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Notable earnings before today’s open: ADS, BAX, BBT, BHI, BX, CY, DAL, DHR, DOV, FCFS, FCS, FITB, FRC, GS, GWW, HLSS, HOMB, MAT, NTCT, ORB, PM, PPG, PVTB, SNA, SON, SVU, SYNT, TSM, TZOO, UNH, VAC, WBS, WGO
Notable earnings after today’s close: AMD, ASBC, ATHN, CCK, COF, CPHD, CYT, GOOG, PBCT, QLGC, SLB, SNDK, SYK, WAL, WDFC, WTFC, XLNX
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers