Before the Open (Dec 31)

Good morning. Happy Wednesday. Happy New Years.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mixed. China rallied 2.2%; Hong Kong, India and Taiwan also did well. Japan, Indonesia and South Korea were closed. Most of Europe was closed. Greece, Amsterdam and France did well. Futures here in the States point towards an up open for the cash market.

The dollar is flat. Oil is down, copper is down. Gold and silver are down.
Today is a full day of trading, but I wouldn’t expect much to happen. Besides the market being closed tomorrow for New Years, most of Europe and a few Asian/Pacific markets were closed today.
The range is likely to be very small, volume very low and activity level almost nonexistent.
Don’t force trades.
As I’ve been saying, the biggest story heading into the new year is oil. It could drop into the 40’s or the recent weakness could be a trap, and it can pop into the 60’s. Along with the movement, oil stocks, which are sensitive the movement and will rally or drop much more than crude (on a percentage basis), will either pop again or head back to their lows. I make no predictions going out several months, but in the near term we’re likely to get some big swings – possibly in both directions. Right now crude is down $1.30 – another new low.
But the big money isn’t made playing short term swings – even if those swings are relatively big. It’s made riding trends – trends that last long enough to allow us to size up a little by adding to core positions on reactions and breakouts. Those are what I’ll continue to look for. It’s nice to nail quick moves – they pay the bills – but the real money is made buying at 50 and selling at 65 a month or two later. Multiweek or month swing trades that go for 10-20% are what I’ll continue to focus on.
Have a great New Years. Be safe.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Stifel keeps a ‘Buy’ rating on share of Monsanto (MON -0.28%) and said that seed prices ae likely to rise in 2015.
GrubHub (GRUB -0.11%) climbed nearly 2% in after-hours trading after it was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Market Perform’ at Barrington.
Stifel keeps a ‘Buy’ rating on Cempra (CEMP +2.59%) and raised its price target on the stock to $33 from $22.
According to the NY Post, American Apparel (APP -0.93%) is said to be delaying payments to its suppliers.
Globalstar (GSAT -5.76%) fell nearly 3% in after-hours trading after it filed to sell 12.37 million shares of common stock for holders.
Gabelli reported a 7.91% stake in Media General (MEG -1.84%) .
Perion Network (PERI unch) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Chardan.
Handy & Harman (HNH +3.80%) submitted a proposal to acquire JPS Industries (JPST +7.80%) for $10 per share.
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Today’s economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Chicago PMI
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 PM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
Notable earnings before today’s open: none
Notable earnings after today’s close: none
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers