Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly up. Australia (up 1.8%) and Hong Kong (up 1.5%) led; Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan also did well. Europe is currently mostly up. Italy (up 1.2%) and Austria (up 1%) are leading; Prague is also doing well. Greece is down 1.3%. Futures here in the States point towards a down open for the cash market.
Don’t forget to check out my worst trade ever video.
The dollar is up. Oil is down, copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are mixed (10-year up, 5- and 2-year down).
The market surged yesterday after the Fed released its statement. Additional language was inserted that gives the Fed the ability to hold off raising rates if “international developments” warrant playing it safe. Wall St. liked the dovish tone and celebrated by buying stocks virtually across the board.
The small caps closed at their highest level ever. The mid caps did the same. The large caps, which have much more exposed to the negative effects of the strong dollar, are lagging but are still in good shape.
Oil bounced $3.50 off its low but between the late-day sell-off yesterday and continued selling today, it’s already given back $2.50 of the gains. The leveraged inverse oil ETF (SCO) has been all over the place. It dropped from 104 to 90 yesterday and is back up to 98 premarket today.
Charts of individual stocks have improved a bunch the last week. I may start posting some trading ideas on a public list at stockcharts.com. If you want me to to this, vote for me. If you don’t care, then don’t. If I get some votes, I’ll keep the list live and updated.
The market has a tendency to reverse its post-FOMC move, so be on the lookout for some selling pressure. But with the introduction of “international developments” as a factor in raising rates, odds favor rates staying low well passed the June meeting. Wall St. loves this. Don’t fight the trend…regardless of your personal opinion of things. Trading isn’t always easy, but it is simple…or at least can be kept simple.
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
Tech Data (TECD +1.50%) reported Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.96, below consensus of $2.03.
Lennar (LEN +1.76%) reported Q1 EPS of 50 cents, above consensus of 45 cents.
Newmont Mining (NEM +3.39%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Neutral’ at HSBC.
Integrated Core Strategies reported a 5.1% passive stake in Dynegy (DYN +3.07%) .
Aetna (AET +1.97%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at Sterne Agee.
Cintas (CTAS +1.06%) reported Q3 EPS of 85 cents, higher than consensus of 78 cents, and then raised guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.31-$3.34 from $3.20-$3.25, above consensus of $3.27.
Wynn Resorts (WYNN -1.33%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Brean Capital with a price target of $174.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS +2.74%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Brean Capital with a price target of $65.
MGM Resorts (MGM +3.59%) was initiated with a ‘Buy’ at Brean Capital with a price target of $27.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM -3.47%) reported Q4 EPS ex-items of $1.52, right on consensus, but then lowered guidance on fiscal 2015 EPS to $3.35-$3.45, well below consensus of $3.63.
Guess (GES -2.45%) jumped 10% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 EPS of 63 cents, above consensus of 57 cents.
Jabil Circuit (JBL +0.04%) reported Q2 core EPS of 50 cents, stronger than consensus of 45 cents.
Cerner (CERN +0.39%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at RW Baird.
Smart & Final Stores (SFS +0.06%) raised guidance on fiscal 2015 adjusted EPS to 67 cents-70 cents, above consensus of 63 cents.
Herman Miller (MLHR +0.45%) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 37 cents, higher than consensus of 34 cents.
Earnings and Economic Numbers from seekingalpha.com…
Today’s economic calendar:
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Current Account
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Notable earnings before today’s open: CRCM, LEN, TECD, TNP
Notable earnings after today’s close: CTRP, GMAN, MFRM, NKE, NWY, RALY, YOKU
Other…
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers