Before the Open (Jul 14)

Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed with a lean to the upside, but gains were small. Hong Kong (up 1.1%) and Japan (up 1.0%) led the way. Indonesia fell 1.0%. Europe is currently mostly up. Switzerland is up more than 2%, and Germany, France, the Netherlands, Turkey, Italy and Portugal are up more than 1%. Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Greece and Spain are also doing well. Futures here in the States point towards a big gap up open for the cash market.
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The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down.
The S&P moved to a new all-time high a few days ago; yesterday the Dow posted its own all-time high. Now we’re going to get a big gap up and some separation.
I’ve said all along the S&P is moving to 2300-2400, and I have no reason to alter this expectation.
The fundamentals matter in the very long term. The technicals matter in the intermediate term. The psychology of the market dictates most of the short term movement because the market can do anything it wants day to day, even if it’s opposite of what *should happen. The psychology of the market had turned down. The bears were getting much more vocal. Famous operators (George Soros) joined the bears. So up we go.
This is a fun game we play, isn’t it.
My bias remains to the upside. For what it’s worth, options expire tomorrow. This is supposed to be the summer doldrums, but as of today’s open the S&P will be 165 off its low of just three weeks ago. That’s a big move considering the market is *supposed to be quiet. 🙂
Stock headlines from barchart.com…
JPMorgan Chase (JPM -0.06%) climbed over 2% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 EPS of $1.55, higher than consensus of $1.43.
Procter & Gamble (PG +0.16%) was upraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ at UBS with a 12-month price target of $96.
Newmont Mining (NEM +2.30%) was upgraded to ‘Buy’ from ‘Sell’ at Veritas Investment Research with a 12-month price target of $42.
Yum! Brands (YUM -0.57%) climbed over 3% in pre-market trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 75 cents, better than consensus of 74 cents, and then forecast operating profit growth this year up “at least” 14%, higher than an April view of up 12%.
Eaon Corp PLC (ETN -0.14%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
The WSJ reports that Viacom (VIA -1.20%) is in talks to sell a 49% stake in its Paramount Pictures move studio to China’s Dalian Wanda.
LSB Industries (LXU -2.91%) dropped 2% in after-hours trading after it registered 4.5 million shares for top holder LSB Funding.
Coeur Mining (CDE +5.34%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Sector Perform’ at RBC Capital Markets with a 12-month target price of $18.
Novovure Ltd. (NVCR -1.97%) jumped nearly 6% in after-hours trading after the FDA approved its second-generation Optune System for glioblastoma patients.
Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF +1.12%) fell 1% in after-hours trading after it was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Bernstein.
Summit Materials (SUM -0.18%) said its preliminary Q2 adjusted EPS will be 43 cents-44 cents, below consensus of 47 cents.
Monsanto (MON -1.17%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after people familiar with the matter said the company has revived talks with BASF about a possible combination of their agrochemicals businesses.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker (non-voter) said “considering the economic projections, he anticipates it may be appropriate for up to two additional rate hikes this year and that the funds rate will approach 3% by the end of 2018.”
Wednesday’s Key Earnings
CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) +1% AH after topping expectations.
Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) +3.1% AH boosting its profit forecast.

Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Producer Price Index
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Fed’s Bullard speech
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:15 Fed’s Lockhart speech
1:15 PM Fed’s George: U.S. Economy
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
7:00 PM Fed’s Kaplan: Monetary Policy

Today’s Earnings here
Other
today’s upgrades/downgrades from briefing.com
this week’s Earnings
this week’s Economic Numbers

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