Here are all the bear markets since 1950. A bear market is defined as a 20% drop off the highs. The current bear has been the steepest. …
Now let’s look at each bear market separately.
1956-1957: The market declined 21.5% over 14.7 months…bottomed for 8 weeks…then gained 30% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 4 years.
1961-1962: The market declined 28% over 6.4 months…bottomed for 5 months…then gained 33% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just almost 4 years.
1966: The market declined 22.2% over 7.9 months…bottomed for 6 weeks…then gained 33% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 2 years.
1968-1970: The market declined 36.1% over 17.8 months…bottomed for 6 weeks…then gained 43.7% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 2 years, 8 months.
1973-1974: The market declined 48.2% over 20.7 months…bottomed for 2 months…then gained 38% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 6 years, 2 months.
1980-1982: The market declined over 27.1% over 20.4 months…bottomed for 5 months…then gained 58% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just 5 years.
1987: The market declined 33.5% over 3.3 months…bottomed for 7 weeks…then gained 21.4% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 12 years (the 1990 sell-off didn’t reach 20% so technically it wasn’t a bear market).
1990: The market declined 19.9% over 2.9 months…then gained 29.1% off the lows over the next 12 months.
2000-2002: The market declined 49.2% over 30.5 months…bottomed for 7.6 months…then gained 33.7% off the lows over the next 12 months. The entire bull move off the bottom lasted just over 5 years.
2007: So far, the market declined 56.8% over 17 months…
Quick Observation: Every bear market did at least a “double bottom” while some did triple bottoms. So if the low of the current bear market is in and history serves as a good precedent, expect a test of the low in the next couple months. And if the low is taken out by a significant amount, start over and look for a test a few months later.