Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. China, Hong Kong, South Korea and New Zealand did well; Japan, India, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philppines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are very quiet. Only South Africa, Portugal and Austria stand out as winners. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is essentially flat.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
How much?
A lot. Or more precisely, an “unprecedented” 3,500 terawatt hours for the globe over the next three years. That corresponds to adding more than the equivalent of a Japan to the world’s electricity consumption each year, according to the International Energy Agency, which is out with a new report called, “Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027.”
Snapshot: “Strong growth in electricity demand is raising the curtain on a new Age of Electricity,” per the report. “Electrification of buildings, transportation and industry combined with a growing demand for air conditioners and data centers is ushering a shift toward a global economy with electricity at its foundations.” Most of the additional demand for electricity through 2027 will come from emerging and developing economies, led by China, which are expected to make up 85% of the growth.
Perhaps surprisingly, in advanced economies like the U.S., total and per capita demand has stayed relatively flat or even declined since 2009. That’s due to increased efficiency across all end-use sectors (like lighting, appliances, and the restructuring/relocation of heavy industries), but things are starting to change amid higher consumption from data centers, EVs, crypto, 5G networks, and heat pumps. In fact, U.S. electricity demand is now estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 2% over the 2025-2027 period, which is equivalent to adding the total electricity demand of California over the next three years.
Power needs: Stocks like Vistra (NYSE:VST), NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) all surged in 2024 as key beneficiaries of electricity demand from the AI revolution. That’s set to continue, according to Seeking Alpha Head of Quant Steve Cress, who shares a new list of “Top Stocks For The AI Power Draw.” He also points to some quick stats in his latest SA forum, like a “ChatGPT query consumes nearly 10x more electricity than a Google search” and “electricity demands from AI data centers are projected to increase power consumption by 160% over the next decade.”
What else is happening…
Trump signs memorandum that could lead to reciprocal tariffs.
Bridgewater takes new stake in Tesla (TSLA), but exits others.
Winning streak… Meta (META) increases dividend by 5%.
TikTok (BDNCE) back on Google and Apple app stores in the U.S.
GameStop (GME) considers bitcoin and other crypto investments.
2025 priorities: Coinbase (COIN) focuses on international expansion.
Airbnb (ABNB) bookings and nights continue double-digit growth.
Defense stocks slide after Trump’s comments on spending cuts.
Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook teases launch of iPhone SE.
Russian revenues from oil exports rose despite new sanctions.
Today’s Economic Calendar
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Import/Export Prices
9:15 AM Industrial Production
10:00 AM Business Inventories
1:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Fed’s Logan Speech
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines did well; China, Malaysia and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are doing great. Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Finland, Switzerland, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are up; the UK and Denmark are down. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold is up; silver is unchanged. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Ending the war?
While a hot inflation report on Wednesday initially made waves on Wall Street, the S&P 500 (SP500) ended the session just fine, while Treasury yields edged down after an earlier jump. Analysts are still discussing the developments (as well as reciprocal tariffs), though geopolitical headlines continue to make waves in the news cycle. First, it was President Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza, followed by discussions toward a peace plan for Russia and Ukraine.
Quote: “The warmer tone in the risk environment across the region reflects some shrug-off of the higher-than-expected U.S. inflation,” noted Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia Pte. “More inflation data is needed to establish a trend and markets were already positioned for a prolonged Fed hold.”
Crude oil also continues to fall ahead of the Munich Security Conference on Friday, with the price of WTI (CL1:COM) sliding from around $80/bbl when President Trump took office to hit $70 this morning. The new dynamic between Trump and Putin already resulted in the release of imprisoned American teacher Marc Fogel, who was exchanged for Russian national Alexander Vinnik. However, there are growing concerns in European capitals about who will be on the hook for any reconstruction in Ukraine, as well as the needed troops there or non-NATO peacekeeping force.
More details: Trump quoted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said that it’s “not practical” for Ukraine to have NATO membership, and while “some of the land will come back,” returning to the borders of 2014 is an “unrealistic objective.” Europe “must [additionally] provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine” and any future U.S. funding would be issued with security guarantees. To accomplish that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is visiting Kyiv this week to “be assured, in some form, that we are going to get this money back,” like deals that would give the U.S. access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals or inking agreements for resources like oil and gas.
What else is happening…
New York Stock Exchange (ICE) plans to launch NYSE Texas.
Chevron (CVX) to slash up to 20% of workforce to cut costs.
FCC boss Carr to probe Comcast’s (CMCSA) DEI programs.
Apple’s (AAPL) TV+ service set to launch on Android phones.
JPMorgan’s (JPM) Dimon slams employee petition on hybrid work.
Bank of Canada minutes: U.S. tariffs could permanently hit GDP.
Baidu’s (BIDU) AI chatbot Ernie will be free for all from April.
Nathan’s Famous (NATH) is said to be considering a sale.
Up 700% over the past year, this stock continues latest surge.
AI boom: Top power grid gets speedy FERC review of projects.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Producer Price Index
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
01:00 PM Results of $25B, 30-Year Bond Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did well. China, Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains; Taiwan was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. Poland, South Africa, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are up; Denmark, Norway and Israel are down. Index futures in the States were flat-to-up, but when the CPI was released, they crashed. The indication is now for a big gap down.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up a little. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Some relief
“With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Monday during his semiannual monetary policy testimony on Capitol Hill. He’s back for Round 2 today, so make sure to check the latest headlines on Seeking Alpha.
Quote: “If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward 2%, we can maintain policy restraint for longer,” Powell told the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. “If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly. We are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate, and policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face.”
It all means that the central bank is in wait-and-see mode, and policy will be quickly dictated by the upcoming data. On that note, the Consumer Price Index for January will be released at 8:30 AM ET – and will be more notable than usual as it will be the reference point for costs going into 2025. Similarly, any inflation prints from here will be linked to the performance of the Trump administration, which has vowed to “bring down the U.S. cost of living” and “end the devastating inflation crisis.” See a CPI preview
What to watch: Pressure had already been alleviated on Powell after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) would be the focus in bringing down borrowing costs instead of Trump’s prior “demand that interest rates drop immediately.” In the past, Powell has also been targeted for falling behind the curve on inflation (remember transitory?), but it seems that majority lawmakers are now willing to move on and even lent him support during yesterday’s grilling. “It seems to me that you and some of your colleagues deserve some credit,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) declared. “I’m not saying things are perfect, but I never imagined that our landing could be this soft.”
What else is happening…
SA Heatmap: With $3,000/oz in sight, is gold a buy at current levels?
Intel (INTC) gains as VP Vance says AI chips will be made in U.S.
Super Micro (SMCI) sees $40B FY26 revenue driven by AI, Blackwell.
Staples superstar: Coca-Cola (KO) continues to outpace sector.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) offers 24-hour trading to all retail clients.
BYD’s God’s Eye driver-assistance tech shakes up EV industry.
Wedbush: Musk’s bid aimed to slow down OpenAI capital raise.
Goldman ends IPO diversity pledge; Disney (DIS) tweaks DEI efforts.
In brick-and-mortar push, Amazon (AMZN) opens new beauty store.
Adios Gulf of Mexico: Top map apps rename to Gulf of America.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
10:00 AM Jerome Powell Speech
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
01:00 PM Results of $42B, 10-Year Note Auction
02:00 PM Treasury Statement
05:05 PM Fed’s Waller Speech
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand did well; China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean to the upside. Poland, the UAE, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic are up; Israel is down. Futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is down slightly. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A closer look
How does the stock market perform after the implementation of tariffs? With some positivity, it seems. The S&P 500 (SP500) closed up 0.7% to 6,066 on Monday after levies were leveled on imported steel and aluminum, while the benchmark index is also up 1.2% since Chinese tariffs were signed on Feb. 4. The truth is these aren’t as broad-based or economically interconnected as the ones threatened against Canada and Mexico, but it also might outline an inverse adage that traders could apply in the era of Trump 2.0: “Sell the rumor, buy the news.”
A strong consumer: The main fear here is that prices will increase for the American consumer if companies pass on the added costs of tariffs. However, while the two are strongly intertwined, the stock market is not the economy. If some price tags increase, corporations will still maintain their margins and earnings growth, as long as consumers keep buying. As it stands, robust consumer spending in the U.S. has kept up in past years even during periods of elevated inflation, helping the U.S. achieve a soft landing.
Again, these aren’t the sweeping tariffs that were initially threatened, which could impact consumer spending and corporate profits, but those too should be assessed pragmatically. Next up, appear to be tariffs on the European Union, as well as “reciprocal tariffs” on every trading partner of the U.S. Are those the heavily interconnected type, more targeted, or merely threats to ink a new deal?
What to watch: As investors decide, there has been a series of other trades being closely tracked by the markets. Aside from stocks, gold has been on a complete tear over the past month due to safe-haven demand and just topped the $2,900 level for the first time. Industrial metals like copper, aluminum and steel are also getting some love amid a rush to secure supplies as tariff uncertainty reigns supreme.
Snap survey: With $3,000/oz in sight, is gold a buy at current levels? Take the poll here and share how it might impact markets in the comments section.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: The U.S. penny needs to be retired.
Elon Musk’s OpenAI bid: Sam Altman says ‘No thank you.’
Super Micro (SMCI) up nearly 50% heading into earnings.
McDonald’s (MCD) bets on value deals to boost foot traffic.
Strategy (MSTR) continues bitcoin (BTC-USD) buying binge.
GameStop (GME) soars as CEO post sparks crypto chatter.
DEA official: Marijuana rescheduling ‘delayed, but not dead.’
Spirit Aero (SPR) to issue another going-concern disclosure.
Amazon faces second union vote, this time in North Carolina.
Podcast push at Fox (FOX) amid purchase of Red Seat Ventures.
Today’s Economic Calendar
06:00 AM NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
08:50 AM Fed’s Hammack Speech
10:00 AM Jerome Powell Speech
01:00 PM Results of $58B, 3-Year Note Auction
03:30 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
03:30 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. China and Hong Kong did well; India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly up. The UK, Poland, Germany, Finland, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Isreael, Austria and Sweden are up; Turkey and Greece are down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— BLOG: Studies Based on January’s Performance and the November – January Quarter —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Chunk of change
The days of the U.S. penny appear to be numbered after President Trump added to his cost-cutting agenda by instructing the Treasury Department to stop minting the coins. Any move is likely to require an act of Congress, but support could be there this time around. Countries like Canada, Australia and New Zealand all stopped using one-cent pieces in recent decades, and further arguments can be made following years of inflation.
Penny saved: The purpose of money is to make it easier to conduct commerce, so from that standpoint, pennies are not economically efficient. They waste a lot of time during transactions (paying or giving change) and aren’t universally accepted everywhere (vending machines, toll booths, parking meters, etc.). Perhaps the biggest argument for abolishing the penny is its production cost is triple what it’s worth, and that’s with cheaper zinc taking over as the dominant metal (95%) since 1982.
Why has the U.S. held out until now? There’s the nostalgia aspect, as well as arguments that all price tags would be rounded up or could make sales tax difficult to calculate. The pro-penny lobby in D.C. has been funded by Artazn, the sole manufacturer of planchets used in the production of the coin. The company was once owned by Newell Brands (NWL), which happened to record its largest daily percentage decline on Friday, but was sold to private equity firm One Rock Capital Partners in 2019. Private equity is also found on the other side of the money trail, with Apollo-owned (NYSE:APO) Coinstar recycling billions of pennies each year.
Are nickels next? There is a camp that wants to round things to the nearest 0, which would eliminate the next smallest coin in denomination – the nickel. Each of these costs 13.78 cents to mint, so it could make sense to do away with those as well from a price perspective. However, it has been quite a while since the U.S. withdrew any low-denomination coin. The last one to occur was in 1857, when the half-cent was discontinued by Congress. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Super Bowl Indicator? Eagles dominate the Chiefs with blowout win.
Gold hits record high as Trump announces steel and aluminium tariffs.
Global trade war: China’s levies go into effect amid ‘reciprocal’ threat.
Executives are starting to worry about costly Disney (DIS) vacations.
Elliott builds stake in BP (BP); Ackman bets big on Uber (UBER).
Nippon said to weigh ‘bold’ change to U.S. Steel (X) buyout bid.
Musk’s DOGE blocked from accessing Treasury payment system.
T-Mobile (TMUS) starts trial for Starlink-powered texting service.
Chevron (CVX): Slowing U.S. oil output jeopardizing terminal projects.
BMW exec: EV shift will be a rollercoaster ride, not a one-way road.
India and U.S. account for one-fourth of new users on DeepSeek app.
Today’s Economic Calendar
No events scheduled
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