Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets posted big losses. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines were very weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Greece is up, but Turkey, the UAE, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are down moderately or big. Index futures in the States point to a mxied open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: My Favorite Bottoming Pattern —————
The dollar is up slightly. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down big.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Risk-off moves
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropped below $80,000 overnight, losing more than 25% since its record high on January 20 – the day of President Trump’s inauguration – in a dramatic price correction, as looming tariffs drive safe-haven demand. Other cryptocurrencies have also been weighed by the prevailing global risk-off sentiment, and crypto-related stocks are expected to see some pressure.
Fading hype: Bitcoin had been one of the most popular Trump trades, given expectations of a friendlier regulatory environment under the new administration. But investors are now moving towards safer assets as Trump ramps up his tariff threats. “Instead of serving as an alternative to fiat instability, as its proponents have long claimed, crypto has once again been treated like other high-risk assets and sold off accordingly,” SA analyst TMC Research noted in a recent analysis.
If the risk-off sentiment continues, bitcoin could lose all its gains from the post-election rally and outflows from crypto ETFs could swell further. Tuesday alone saw more than $1B pulled out of spot bitcoin ETFs, the largest single-day cash exodus for the ETFs since their debut in last January. The crypto fear and greed index, which tracks trader sentiment in the sector, is now flashing “Extreme Fear.”
Hope remains: Still, crypto bulls are hopeful that bitcoin will rebound soon and a bottom for its price is nearing. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, told CNBC on Thursday that he still expects the top crypto to reach $200,000 this year as the industry sees more institutionalization and regulatory clarity.
What else is happening…
Trump greenlights Mexico, Canada and China tariffs for March.
Trump: U.K. could dodge U.S. tariffs if trade deal is reached.
Quantum leap: Amazon (AMZN) introduces new ‘Ocelot’ chip.
Nasdaq 100 falls from peak, Alphabet (GOOG) now oversold.
CFPB drops lawsuits against Capital One (COF) and others.
Verizon’s DEI practices, Frontier (FYBR) deal under FCC lens.
NEC’s Hassett: DOGE Dividend makes a great deal of sense.
Elliott ramps up pressure on BP as strategic reset disappoints.
Sycamore looking to split Walgreens (WBA) into three parts.
Examining the growing online push to boycott Tesla (TSLA).
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods (Advance)
08:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays
08:30 AM Retail Inventories (Advance)
08:30 AM Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
09:45 AM Chicago PMI
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
03:00 PM Farm Prices
10:15 PM Fed’s Goolsbee Speech
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were weak. Japan did well, but Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Thailand posted solid losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly down. Turkey is up, but Denmark, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal and Saudi Arabia are weak. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: My Favorite Bottoming Pattern —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Solid results
Nvidia’s (NVDA) most-awaited results finally arrived – but it wasn’t the blowout report that investors had been hoping for (or have become accustomed to). The AI darling’s stock seesawed since the results were issued, slipping 1.5% to $129.32/share after hours on Wednesday, and rising 1% before the bell today.
Fine, not great: Nvidia’s fourth-quarter results easily beat Wall Street estimates. However, the pace of its data center revenue growth – which accounts for most of its revenue – slowed considerably. Still, the company recorded $11B of Blackwell revenue in the reported quarter, exceeding its expectations and allaying investor fears of DeepSeek slowing demand. “We’ve successfully ramped up the massive-scale production of Blackwell AI supercomputers, achieving billions of dollars in sales in its first quarter,” CEO Jensen Huang noted.
Looking ahead: Nvidia expects $43B revenue in the first quarter of FY2026, plus or minus 2%, compared to the consensus estimate of $42.3B. The Blackwell ramp-up has weighed on Nvidia’s margins, with first-quarter adjusted gross margin forecast to be 71%. “When fully ramped, we have many opportunities to improve the cost, and gross margin will improve and return to the mid-70s, late this fiscal year,” said CFO Colette Kress. As for the impact of potential tariffs, Kress said, “it’s an unknown until we understand further what the U.S. government’s plan is.”
SA analysts react: Investing Group Leader Jonathan Weber said Nvidia’s fundamentals are still strong, and its market position is compelling. “But margin trends and the ongoing growth slowdown are not very encouraging, and NVDA remains rather pricey,” he cautioned. SA analyst Hunter Wolf Research struck a more bullish tone, saying the key takeaway is robust Blackwell demand and its ramp-up “could continue to drive Nvidia’s growth in the near future.”
What else is happening…
Trump floats 25% tariff on EU, sparks confusion over other duties.
Trump team reevaluates Moderna (MRNA) bird flu vaccine funding.
Verizon (VZ) at risk of losing FAA contract to Elon Musk’s Starlink.
Snowflake (SNOW) pops as results, guidance top expectations.
AppLovin (APP) CEO: Short reports ‘littered with inaccuracies.’
Jeff Bezos announces new editorial policy at Washington Post.
META apologizes for Instagram glitch that pushed graphic Reels.
Ben & Jerry eye buying back eponymous brand from Unilever (UL).
Chevron (CVX) slips as Trump plans to revoke Venezuela oil license.
Petrobras (PBR) pledges $1.6B dividend payout despite surprise loss.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
08:30 AM Durable Goods
08:30 AM GDP Q4
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
09:15 AM Fed’s Schmid Speech
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:00 AM Fed’s Barr Speech
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
11:45 AM Fed’s Bowman Speech
01:15 PM Fed’s Hammack Speech
03:15 PM Fed’s Harker Speech
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan,, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are up big. The UK, Poland, Frane, Turkey, Germany, Finland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are leading. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Market Breadth Stinks —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Budget blueprint
A budget blueprint has been cleared by the Republican-led House of Representatives, the first step towards advancing President Donald Trump’s plan to cut taxes as well as increase funding for border security and the military. The proposal was passed by a narrow 217-215, with all Republicans but one voting for the measure and Democrats rejecting it (one Democrat did not vote).
Plan details: The budget plan calls for $4.5T in tax cuts, which would include the renewal of the cuts Trump introduced in 2017 that are set to expire at the end of the year. The plan also calls for cutting federal spending by $2T over ten years. To note, it instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee – which oversees Medicaid and Medicare – to find at least $880B in cuts. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has insisted that the budget proposal aims to root out “fraud, waste and abuse” in Medicaid.
As for the national debt, which is currently more than $36.5T, the House proposal calls for raising the debt ceiling by $4T. According to think tank Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the debt limit will likely be reached in November 2026 even with the $4T increase. In that case, the Treasury Department would have to resort to extraordinary measures to pay government obligations.
What’s next: The House vote is viewed as procedural, as the Senate last week voted for a contrasting budget blueprint. The Senate proposal does not include tax cuts or raising the debt ceiling. The House and Senate will need to reach an agreement to draft a legislation, which could take months and further divide lawmakers. The current government funding is set to expire on March 14.
What else is happening…
Nvidia (NVDA) results on deck: DeepSeek fears, Blackwell hopes.
Super Micro (SMCI) surges after filing delayed reports just in time.
Lucid (LCID) rallies as it aims to double EV output, CEO steps aside.
Doom and gloom? Latest data signals a highly pessimistic consumer.
Bessent: Trump administration’s goal is to re-privatize the economy.
Tariff watch: Copper may be next, Alcoa (AA) warns of job losses.
U.S., Ukraine reach tentative agreement for mineral resources.
These financial giants dial back DEI references in annual reports.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) caught in ‘strong reversal zone’ – time to buy?
GameStop (GME) hears another call to convert its cash to bitcoin.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Fed’s Barkin Speech
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Survey of Business Uncertainty
11:30 AM Results of $28B, 2-Year FRN Auction
12:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
01:00 PM Results of $44B, 7-Year Note Auction
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand all did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are doing well. Denmark, Poland, Finland, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria are leading. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: Market Breadth Stinks —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Geopolitical shift
It’s been three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically this year, with the U.S. breaking away from European allies and refusing to blame Russia for the invasion.
Shifting alliance: The United Nations General Assembly voted on resolutions aimed at bringing about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. The U.S. joined Russia in voting against a resolution that called on Moscow to completely withdraw its troops from Ukraine, signaling a major reversal in policy. The U.S. then introduced another resolution, calling for “a swift end” to the conflict and lasting peace, but did not call out Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
What’s next: European leaders are working towards maintaining ties with the U.S. amid concerns over waning support for Ukraine. Trump hosted French President Emmanuel Macron in Washington, with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to meet Trump on Thursday. As for a minerals deal with Ukraine, Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may visit Washington this week or next to sign it. To note, Vladimir Putin has offered to let U.S. companies mine rare earth mineral deposits in Russia and parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine.
SA commentary: “A world with fewer geopolitical frictions also has the potential to lower the costs of doing business in a variety of ways, open up new markets,” SA analyst Zoltan Ban said. But failure to redraw the global order combined with a protectionist mindset could risk the global economy. “Regardless of how Trump’s economic and geopolitical pivot works out, it is important to prudently manage risk, and be prepared for the overall market to experience volatility,” Ban added.
What else is happening…
WSB monthly survey results are in, take the poll if you missed it.
Trump says Canada, Mexico tariffs ‘will go forward’ next week.
White House eyes beefing up Biden-era chip curbs on China.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) below $90,000 as crypto selloff deepens.
U.S. egg shortage: Denny’s adds surcharge at some locations.
Apple (AAPL), Indonesia agree on terms to end iPhone 16 ban.
Salesforce (CRM) inks multi-billion dollar deal with Google Cloud.
Nuclear stocks sink as Microsoft said to cancel data center leases.
Dakota Access Pipeline lawsuit threatens Greenpeace’s future.
Bank of Korea cuts policy rate, GDP forecast amid uncertainty.
Today’s Economic Calendar
04:20 AM Fed’s Logan Speech
09:00 AM S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
09:00 AM FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
11:45 AM Fed’s Barr Speech
01:00 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
01:00 PM Results of $70B, 5-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Money Supply
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a great weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand all did poorly. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mixed. Denmark, Turkey, Germany, Spain, Portugal and Austria are up; Poland, Greece, South Africa, Israel and Saudi Arabia are down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate up open for the S&P and Nasdaq.
————— VIDEO: Market Breadth Stinks —————
The dollar is flat. Oil and copper are down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Equity investments
The Oracle of Omaha has spoken. In his latest shareholder letter published over the weekend, Warren Buffett discussed his outlook for stocks and what it takes to own a good business, along with other tips and investment strategies. Here are some of the takeaways as Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) reported operating earnings of nearly $50B in 2024:
How he views equities: Berkshire’s equity activity “is ambidextrous.” One hand maintains near or total control of its 189 subsidiaries, including GEICO, property-casualty insurance, and railroad and utility operations. In the other hand is a “small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly profitable businesses” that are standalone stocks. While many investors increasingly focus on the second hand, whose transactions have recently led to a swelling cash pile, Buffett says that is not the way to look at it.
Quote: “Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won’t change. While our ownership in ‘marketable equities’ moved downward last year from $354B to $272B, the value of our ‘non-quoted controlled equities’ increased somewhat and remains far greater than the value of the marketable portfolio.”
Good businesses over cash-equivalent assets: “Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned. Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge. Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency.”
Wait for the right time: “We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon where we can best deploy savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg [Abel] has vividly shown his ability to act at such times as did Charlie [Munger].”
U.S. exceptionalism: “Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance.” See Buffett’s top U.S. stock holdings
Some outliers: Buffett likes Japan. He touted his five stakes in enterprises like ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo, which “operate in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself.” It’s a “small but important exception to our U.S.-based focus” due to the companies’ “financial records, managements, and attitude in respect to their investors.” Capital deployment is key here, as well as appropriate dividends and repurchases, and “far less aggressive compensation programs than their U.S. counterparts.” Buffett also substantially increased his holdings of Treasury bills in 2024, given improving yields on the highly liquid short-term securities. Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Eyes on Austin: Tesla (TSLA) robotaxi to take on Waymo and UBER.
Tariffs could add new cost pressures to an already-tight power grid.
Zelenskyy ready to quit for NATO membership, Starlink access at risk.
Germany’s next chancellor urges ‘real independence’ from the U.S.
Prosus (OTCPK:PROSY) to buy Just Eat (OTCPK:JTKWY) for €4.1B.
Captain America: Brave New World (DIS) crashes in second weekend.
Take a look at billionaire activist Bill Ackman’s biggest hits and misses.
Alibaba (BABA) plans to invest over $52B in AI, cloud infrastructure.
Coinbase (COIN) stock gains after SEC poised to dismiss suit.
Bybit hack: $1.5B stolen from ethereum wallet in largest crypto heist.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 AM Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
01:00 PM Results of $69B, 2-Year Note Auction
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