Good morning. Happy Friday. Happy Employment Numbers Day.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Thailand and the Philippines did well, but Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Malaysia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East also lean down. Norway and Portugal are up, while France, Germany, the UAE, Finland, Hungary, Austria and Saudi Arabia are down. Index futures in the States point to a slight positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Most Important Element of Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is unchanged.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Payrolls watch
In the backdrop of global trade uncertainty, investors will closely watch the nonfarm payrolls report due this morning and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in the afternoon. Consumer and business confidence have already taken a hit, and some view today’s jobs report as the final snapshot of the labor market, before it reflects significant impacts of the Trump administration’s recent policies.
What to expect: Economists expect 160,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in February, up modestly from the 143,000 jobs created in January. Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0%. “We’re going to see kind of mild-to-moderate growth similar to January, carrying over some of that strength from the end of the year,” Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board, told Seeking Alpha. Headlines dominating the news in the past couple of weeks aren’t expected to impact February’s numbers.
Word on the Street: Evercore ISI’s Stan Shipley expects a lower February reading, at 145,000. “Our data, combined with recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers, as they assess the economic climate ahead,” he wrote in a note to clients. Analysts say the Trump administration’s efforts to streamline the federal government, including its effects on the private sector, could erase about a quarter of all jobs created last year by the end of 2025. Private sector job growth already cooled markedly in February, with job cuts reaching the highest monthly total since July 2020.
Looking ahead: For March and beyond, four government-related factors will stand out – federal layoffs, spending cuts that will lead to staff cuts at government contractors, immigration policies, and tariffs. But some government layoffs and spending cuts are being challenged in court, and tariffs have been delayed again. “Given some of the volatility and again some of the plans that keep getting retracted, I think all of that uncertainty is starting to build up,” The Conference Board’s Barnes said.
What else is happening…
Trade chaos: Trump delays tariffs again, Canada ‘not backing down.’
ECB cuts rates again, dims growth outlook amid trade uncertainty.
Broadcom pops as results show AI spending isn’t slowing down.
Stargate Project to require 64,000 Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs by 2026.
Walgreens (WBA) to be taken private in $11B deal, stock jumps.
ZIM Integrated (ZIM) gains amid speculation of CEO-led buyout.
LUNR moonshot status unclear, SpaceX’s Starship explodes again.
Trump inks order for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, crypto stockpile.
U.S. gold stockpiles reach record high, doubling in three months.
Trump tells Cabinet they’re in charge of departments, not Musk.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
10:15 AM Fed’s Williams Speech
10:15 AM Fed’s Bowman Speech
12:20 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
12:30 PM Jerome Powell Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
01:00 PM Fed’s Kugler Speech
03:00 PM Consumer Credit
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines posted solid gains while Taiwan, Australia, and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East also lean down. Poland, South Africa, Austria and the Czech Republic are up; the UK, Denmark, the UAE, Greece, Switzerland, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Israel and Saudi Arabia are down. Index futures in the States point to a big gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Most Important Element of Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
New AI contender
Chinese companies are continuing to make big strides in artificial intelligence, as Alibaba (BABA) unveiled its latest reasoning model with fewer parameters than existing models. Alibaba claims that the new model more or less matched the performance of DeepSeek’s R1 breakthrough and OpenAI’s cost-efficient o1 mini.
What’s new: Alibaba’s new model, called QwQ-32B, was developed with 32B parameters (referring to the training data that enables the model to generate desired outputs). The company’s Qwen team evaluated the model across a range of benchmarks to assess its mathematical reasoning, coding and general problem-solving. The team claimed QwQ-32B can achieve performance comparable to DeepSeek’s R1, which boasts 671B parameters.
The launch sent the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares soaring 8.4% on Thursday, while its ADRs (BABA) are up 3% premarket in the U.S. The new model comes as Alibaba announced a commitment to invest more than $52B in its cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years. This major investment would exceed the tech giant’s total AI and cloud spending over the past decade.
Bigger picture: Another notable release from China is the new general AI agent called Manus, which claims to outperform OpenAI’s Deep Research on some metrics when performing tasks. The launches this week follow the Chinese government’s pledge to step up support for emerging technologies such as AI and quantum computing, ensuring self-sufficiency. These new developments indicate that China is gaining steam in the global AI race, and is showing no signs of slowing down.
What else is happening…
Trump pauses tariffs for Big Three automakers for a month.
Private sector hiring cools markedly, economy grows slightly.
ECB set to cut rates by 25 bps amid economic, trade concerns.
SpaceX denies reports of it taking over Verizon’s (VZ) FAA deal.
YouTube Premium Lite being tested in U.S. for $7.99 a month.
Seven & i (OTCPK:SVNDY) overhaul: New CEO, 7-Eleven IPO.
Allegro calls ON Semiconductor’s (ON) $6.9B bid ‘inadequate.’
JPMorgan, Goldman (GS) offering more Russia-linked trades.
GOP eyes Medicaid expansion reforms, DOGE targets FDA lab.
Report: Draft order aims to shut down Department of Education.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:30 AM Challenger Job-Cut Report
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods and Services
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Productivity and Costs
08:45 AM Fed’s Harker Speech
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
03:30 PM Fed’s Waller Speech
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
07:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did well. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines posted solid gains while Australia and New Zealand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are up big. Denmark, France, Poland, Turkey, Germany, Greece, South Africa, Finland, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Sweden, and the Czech Republic are all participating. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: My Favorite Bottoming Pattern —————
The dollar is down. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Show of confidence
With the looming U.S. trade war, China has stuck to its growth target of around 5% this year as it resolves to “meet difficulties head-on,” the country’s premier Li Qiang said. He also unveiled more stimulus measures to support the economy, and called for a more proactive fiscal policy.
State of the economy: “Internationally, changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world at a faster pace,” Li said at the opening of the annual parliamentary meeting on Wednesday. “An increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science, and technology.” On the domestic front, Li noted that consumption remains sluggish and the pace of policy implementation is too slow. Still, he insisted that “the underlying trend of long-term economic growth has not changed and will not change.”
More support: China set the deficit-to-GDP ratio target for this year at around 4%, up 1 percentage point from last year. The government will also issue more ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special-purpose bonds, as well as special treasury bonds to re-capitalize large state-owned banks. New government debt will total CNY 11.86T ($1.63T) to enable a notably higher level of spending this year. “Various funds will be allocated more quickly to local governments to ensure that actual spending begins as soon as possible,” Li said.
Bigger picture: According to ING Economic and Financial Analysis, China repeating its 5% GDP goal despite a more challenging external environment “is a show of confidence and a harbinger of stronger policy support for domestic demand.” Meanwhile, the new debt targets “imply that we will see a stronger fiscal policy push this year, while still keeping in mind long-term debt sustainability considerations,” ING added. Chinese stocks ended higher on Wednesday, while the yuan (CNY:USD) was slightly weaker against the U.S. dollar following its rise on Tuesday.
What else is happening…
Mexico and Canada may get tariff relief, Trump defends trade moves.
Natural gas extends rally as Ontario retaliates with power export tax.
Trump eyes energy output boost, Chevron ordered to exit Venezuela.
Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) urges DOJ not to break up the company.
CFPB drops lawsuit against Zelle payment network, these banks.
KKR, Walmart (WMT) to sell Japanese supermarket chain Seiyu.
Amazon (AMZN) in oversold territory for the first time since August.
Severe flu season may have pushed up earnings for some stocks.
Measles outbreak in Texas leads to 159 cases, 1 death this year.
Hundreds of ‘non-core’ federal buildings identified for potential sale.
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:15 AM ADP Jobs Report
09:45 AM PMI Composite Final
10:00 AM Factory Orders
10:00 AM ISM Service Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
02:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand were all weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are down big. The UK, Denmark, France, Poland, Germany, Finland, Norway, Hungary, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Israel, Austria, Sweden, South Africa and the Czech Republic are posting big losses. Index futures in the States point to moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: My Favorite Bottoming Pattern —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Tariffs kick in
And so it begins. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have gone into effect today, while duties on Chinese goods have been doubled to 20%. Trade war concerns have already hit business and consumer confidence, and a key GDP forecast signaled that the economy is shrinking at a faster pace than previously thought.
Retaliatory moves: In response, China said it will impose additional 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports next week, and expanded export controls on U.S. companies. Canada is responding with immediate 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth more than $20B, and will expand the duties to imports worth over $86B if Trump’s tariffs remain for 21 days. Mexico is also expected to retaliate, with an announcement likely later today.
Reciprocal tariffs: Trump also declared that his proposed reciprocal tariffs will go into effect next month. These tariffs will be decided on a country-specific basis, depending on the duties imposed by other countries – “a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount,” Trump said previously. Tariffs on “external” agricultural products will also begin in April, although it’s unclear what the rate would be. Trump has also set sights on lumber imports, while stocks most sensitive to tariff shocks are being sold off.
vSA commentary: “Economic indicators show a sharp deterioration, with significant drops in GDP and consumer spending, indicating increased odds of a recession,” SA analyst Jeremy Blum noted, recommending that investors reduce exposure to economically vulnerable sectors. But Investing Group Leader Victor Dergunov views the current market fear as a potential buying opportunity. “Job losses, potential inflation, and other growth fears can be offset by Fed easing, continued AI growth, tax cuts, deregulation, fiscal stimulus, and other constructive economic events.”
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Crypto is seen as too risky despite Trump hype.
Crypto reserve raises eyebrows, bitcoin (BTC-USD) erases gains.
Oil hits three-month low as OPEC agrees on April production hike.
Earnings Snapshot: Target (TGT) sees ‘meaningful’ profit pressure.
Make in U.S.: TSMC’s (TSM) $100B plan, Honda’s (HMC) new Civic.
Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook teases launch of new MacBook Air.
Reddit (RDDT) co-founder joins Frank McCourt’s bid for TikTok.
23andMe (ME) committee rejects CEO’s second takeover offer.
U.S. pauses Ukraine aid, officials eye easing Russia sanctions.
Trump: China, Japan can’t continue driving down their currencies.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Auto sales
02:20 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, Australia and Indonesia did well; Taiwan and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing very well. The UK, France, Turkey, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Israel, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are participating. Index futures in the States point to moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: My Favorite Bottoming Pattern —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up big.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Rallying support
European leaders have rallied to support Ukraine in the wake of the heated meeting between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump on Friday, which once again fueled concerns of the U.S. potentially pulling support for Kyiv. A proposed plan towards a peace deal could potentially include an initial one-month truce with Russia, which would cover air, sea and energy infrastructure – but not ground fighting.
Path to peace: Following a summit with European leaders in London on Sunday, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the U.K., France and others will work with Ukraine on a plan to end the fighting, and then present the plan to the U.S. Starmer said Europe must do the “heavy lifting,” but insisted that the effort “must have strong U.S. backing.” The leaders also agreed to keep military aid flowing to Ukraine and keep increasing economic pressure on Russia, ensure Ukraine’s sovereignty and security, and develop a “coalition of the willing” to defend a potential peace deal.
Starmer also announced a more than $2.7B loan to provide more military aid to Ukraine – backed by profits from frozen Russian assets – and a new deal for Ukraine to use around $2B of U.K. export finance to buy over 5,000 air defense missiles. The European Council will meet on Thursday to discuss a military aid package for Ukraine, likely worth more than $20B, and steps to increase defense spending.
Bigger picture: “While the U.S. has taken a step back from brokering a peace deal, markets are not pricing out the chance of a Ukraine-Russia truce,” Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, noted. As a result, hopes of increased military spending are driving European defense stocks higher. The Stoxx 600 Aerospace and Defense index surged nearly 7% on Monday. Notable gainers include the U.K.’s BAE Systems (OTCPK:BAESY), France’s Dassault Aviation (OTCPK:DUAVF), Thales SA (OTCPK:THLEF), and Germany’s Rheinmetall (OTCPK:RNMBF). The pan-European STOXX 600 index (STOXX) was up nearly 1%, starting the week on a high note after nine straight weekly gains.
What else is happening…
Crypto revival? Trump hypes strategic reserve, SEC nixes probes.
Servers in Singapore fraud case may contain Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
China telling AI execs to avoid U.S. travel over security concerns.
Google (GOOG) co-founder urges AI staff to ‘turbocharge’ efforts.
AbbVie (ABBV) forays into obesity market with $2.2B Gubra deal.
IRA tax credit repeal could drive up electricity prices, reports say.
Prada (OTCPK:PRDSY) nears €1.5B deal to buy Versace (CPRI).
‘Tesla Takedown’ protesters target CEO Elon Musk’s bottom line.
Hedge funds selling indexes, ETFs at fastest pace in a year.
Jeremy Grantham warns U.S. stock market in a ‘super bubble.’
Today’s Economic Calendar
09:45 AM PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM Construction Spending
11:35 AM Fed’s Musalem: U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
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