Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets mostly did great. Japan, China, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines posted big gains; Indonesia was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently up big. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, South Africa, Hungary, Spain, the Netherland, Italy, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are doing great. Index futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Avoiding shutdown
U.S. lawmakers in the Senate are set to vote this afternoon on a Republican-led stopgap federal funding bill, ahead of the midnight deadline. The measure is largely expected to pass, after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) signaled his support to avoid a government shutdown.
Caving in: In an unexpected turn, Schumer said he’d vote to pass the bill, which would fund the government through September 30. “As bad as passing the continuing resolution is, allowing Donald Trump to take even more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option,” he said on Thursday. Schumer later said a shutdown “would give Trump and Elon Musk carte blanche to destroy vital government services at a significantly faster rate than they can right now.”
What’s in the bill: According to the Republican-led House Appropriations Committee, the stopgap bill would maintain government operations without increasing the spending of taxpayer dollars. It added that there are no cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security in the bill. The bill would increase defense spending by $6B from FY2024 and decrease nondefense spending by $13B. It also includes an additional $485M for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and a $20B cut to Internal Revenue Service enforcement.
The stopgap bill was cleared by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives earlier this week. If the Senate passes the bill, Trump must sign it by Friday to avert a shutdown. Lawmakers will then continue working on a budget resolution, with the GOP’s plan calling for $4.5T in tax cuts and reducing federal spending by $2T over ten years. To note, the blueprint instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee – which oversees Medicaid and Medicare – to find at least $880B in cuts.
What else is happening…
Wholesale inflation unexpectedly declines, initial jobless claims dip.
Tesla (TSLA) warns of trade war hit, British Columbia axes rebates.
Tariff uncertainty: Gold futures settle at record high, $3,500 in sight?
Steve Mnuchin: 5%-10% stock market correction ‘makes sense.’
Top decliners as S&P 500 logs first 10% fall from peak since 2023.
Crown Castle (CCI) to sell fiber unit in two deals for combined $8.5B.
Archer Aviation (ACHR), Palantir (PLTR) announce partnership for AI.
U.S., U.K. in talks over ‘backdoor’ request for Apple (AAPL) users’ data.
Comcast keeps Olympics media rights, NFL signs first pharma partner.
Chinese stocks soar on hopes of policy support to boost consumption.
Today’s Economic Calendar
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Malaysia and the Philippines did well, but China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Indonesia were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are split. Denmark, Poland, Turkey, Norway and the Czech Republic are up; France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal are down. Index futures in the States point to a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold is up; silver is down. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Intel Inside
Intel (INTC) has been missing a permanent CEO following the abrupt departure of Pat Gelsinger in December, but there is now a new set of hands to steer the ship. Lip-Bu Tan has been appointed as chief executive at a critical time for the chipmaker, as well as the semiconductor industry as a whole. Intel took off on the news, climbing nearly 5% before the close on Wednesday, and another 12% to $23/share in premarket trading today. Putting it in perspective, INTC was trading in the $60s, when Gelsinger took the reins four years ago.
Background: Tan joined Intel’s board in 2022 after a decade leading chip design software company Cadence (CDNS) – whose stock rose over 4,000% under his leadership – but quit the INTC board last summer over reported disagreements with Gelsinger’s turnaround plans. In the interim, Intel CFO David Zinsner and product chief MJ Holthaus have been running the company, spinning off Intel’s venture capital unit and exploring a stake sale in its chipmaking unit Altera. There have also been loud calls to take more serious action, such as separating Intel’s costly foundry biz to focus on design.
Transforming Intel back into a chip powerhouse won’t be easy. It lost its way due to manufacturing miscalculations (EUV lithography), not staying ahead of the AI revolution (GPUs) and relying on its core business to fund its transition (microprocessors), so bold plans will be needed to fulfill Tan’s objective of pivoting the firm into “an engineering-focused company” and “world-class foundry.” Outside help may also be necessary, with reports of a joint venture led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) that would give the latter a stake in Intel’s foundry business and might involve players like Qualcomm (QCOM), Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO).
SA commentary: “Our strong sell call played out well, with Intel Corporation crashing as much as 25% since we said to step out in February,” Investing Group Leader Tech Stock Pros writes in a new article. “Now, we’re revisiting the [undervalued] stock and upgrading to a buy. Intel now makes for an attractive takeover candidate and could see potential gains on PC Client TAM expansion, although tariff risks remain.”
What else is happening…
Consumer Price Index: Inflation slows to 2.8% in February.
EPA rolls back air, water rules in ‘greatest day of deregulation.’
Tariffs: Steel and aluminum stocks rally; F-150 (F) in spotlight.
Pershing extends standstill pact with Howard Hughes (HHH).
Illegal immigration crackdown: Detention facilities are now full.
Roomba maker iRobot (IRBT) plunges after going concern warning.
vWalmart (WMT) faces pressure in China over supplier price talks.
Trump’s FTC to go ahead with Microsoft (MSFT) antitrust probe.
Premium rebrand coming to once-bankrupt Spirit Air (OTC:SAVEQ).
Stock market may be overplaying fears of a recession – J.P. Morgan.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Jobless Claims
08:30 AM PPI Final Demand
10:00 AM Quarterly Services Report
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
01:00 PM Results of $22B, 30-Year Bond Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia did well; Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Greece, Switzerland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Israel and Sweden are up more than 1%. Denmark is down. Index futures in the States point to a big gap up open for the cash market.
————— Audio Book: Guidelines to Successful Trading – the Intangibles —————
The dollar is up a small amount. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Zooming in
It was only three weeks ago that the S&P 500 (SP500) hit an all-time high, but investors taking a look at their portfolios are seeing some different numbers today. The benchmark index fell into correction territory on Tuesday, registering a decline of 10% in the span of less than a month. While the S&P 500 trimmed some of the losses to end yesterday’s session out of the correction zone, big questions are still swirling over what lies ahead.
Snapshot: Here’s a 10-point checklist that will determine the market’s future trajectory. If more Xs or question marks turn into checks, things may go up as fast as they came down. If uncertainty reigns supreme, expect more volatility ahead, while additional pain can be in store if more Xs make their way onto the list.
Growth and recession fears ❌
Unpredictable trade policy ❌
Cuts to government spending ❌
Lower interest rates ❔
Lower inflation ❔
Looser regulation ❔
Tax cuts ❔
Earnings and investment ✅
Consumer spending ✅
Low unemployment ✅
Investors can keep up to date by staying on top of the latest headlines and economic prints, like the CPI report, which is scheduled to be released today at 8:30 ET. It’s also important to note that the checklist contains some paradoxes, like government spending. Short-term impacts boost business and GDP, which are a net positive for the market, though factors like an unsustainable national debt are not as measurable, and might be just as important for the longer term.
Thought bubble: The Trump administration is attempting to engineer a long-term structural change to the U.S. economy. The reality of that goal is hotly debated, but it is no doubt taking a toll on the short-term animal spirits that enveloped the market since November. “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down, but you know what? We have to rebuild our country,” President Trump told reporters before a Business Roundtable meeting on Tuesday. “When it comes to the stock market, the numbers that we see today, and the numbers that we saw yesterday, and the numbers we will see tomorrow – are a snapshot in a moment of time,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt added during a briefing. “We are in a period of economic transition… to a Golden Age of American manufacturing.”
What else is happening…
Ontario suspends U.S. power surcharge, agrees to trade talks.
Palantir (PLTR) teases upcoming Mar. 13 announcement on X.
Department of Education shutdown? 50% job cuts announced.
Headset strategy: Google (GOOG) nears purchase of AdHawk.
Turnaround plan from Kohl’s (KSS) to focus on private brands.
U.S. may use emergency authority to fire up retired coal plants.
Growing troubles lead to departure of Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY) CEO.
Spotify (SPOT) discloses annual record of $10B in royalty payouts.
U.S. will restore military aid to Ukraine after ceasefire agreement.
Tesla (TSLA): Appeal of Musk pay package and domestic terrorism?
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Consumer Price Index
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
01:00 PM Results of $39B, 10-Year Note Auction
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. China and Thailand did well, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, India, Singapore and the Philippines posted big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Turkey is up; Denmark, Switzerland, Hungary and Israel are down. Index futures in the States point to a positivie open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Most Important Element of Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Trading 24/5
If you thought the recent volatility was hard to digest, get ready for round-the-clock trading. Markets have been dealt a blow by growth and recession fears, the unpredictability of trade policy, and risks to sector-wide investment and spending. Whether it’s a good buying opportunity or another growl towards a bear market is still up for debate, but for traders, the environment they find themselves in is set to speed up even faster.
On the horizon: The Nasdaq (NDAQ) has applied for regulatory permission to offer 24-hour trading of equities, following the likes of Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) and the New York Stock Exchange (ICE). Brokers like Robinhood (HOOD) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) already offer trading beyond traditional hours on alternative trading systems like Blue Ocean, but the next evolution is set to bring the feature mainstream. Note that there is still some time before kickoff, with the Nasdaq targeting the second half of 2026.
“While the promise of round-the-clock trading can further democratize markets, it also demands careful and deliberate planning,” Nasdaq President Tal Cohen wrote on LinkedIn. “Liquidity, transparency and integrity remain the lifeblood of vibrant markets, and any structural change must uphold these principles.”
Forces at play: Nasdaq (NDAQ) attributed its decision to the rise of retail participation, as well as the growth of U.S. stocks across international markets. It’s a big deal as “total foreign holdings of U.S. equities reached $17T as of June 2024, a 97% increase since 2019.” Settlement dates have also sped up in recent years, with the industry moving to T+1 in 2024. The next progression is likely to center around instant or same-day settlement, but those coming discussions will also have to ensure sufficient protection for market participants.
What else is happening…
Kolanovic thinks the bottom for the momentum factor may be in sight.
Tesla (TSLA) sees worst day since 2020; Wedbush’s Ives defends.
CoreWeave (CRWV) signs $11.9B deal with OpenAI ahead of IPO.
Apple (AAPL), Meta (META) set to face ‘modest fines’ from EU.
Illumina (ILMN) dims outlook, cuts spending to mitigate China ban.
Oil CEOs back Trump agenda, Chevron asks for steady approach.
Ontario adds power surcharge to U.S. exports. Is tariff deal possible?
China is now looking to grow bilateral relations with Canada.
Delta (DAL) slides after slashing guidance, other airlines also fall.
Strategy reset: Southwest (LUV) to begin charging for checked bags.
Today’s Economic Calendar
06:00 AM NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
01:00 PM Results of $58B, 3-Year Note Auction
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. New Zealand and the Philippines did well, but Hong Kong, India, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently down big. Denmark, Poland, Greece, the UAE, Hungary, Spain, Portugal, Austria and the Czech Republic are posting the biggest losses. Index futures in the States point to a huge gap down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: The Most Important Element of Trading —————
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold is downp; silver is up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Growth concerns
Bond traders have been preparing for a potential downturn in the U.S. economy in light of recent chaotic tariff decisions, even as the Trump administration seeks to deflect these concerns. When asked if he was expecting a recession, President Donald Trump said he “hates to predict things like that” and said “there is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big.”
Don’t fear: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has declared that “there’s going to be no recession in America.” He told NBC News Trump plans to grow the U.S. economy “in a way we’ve never grown before.” If Trump’s bringing growth to America, “I would never bet on recession, no chance,” Lutnick said. The official also insisted that while some foreign-made products might be more expensive, American products will get cheaper.
Bond watch: But bond traders appear to be more pessimistic and are increasingly buying short-dated Treasuries, with the two-year yield (US2Y) declining sharply over the last two weeks. The US2Y, which is most sensitive to interest rate outlook, is currently 5 basis points lower at 3.95%, while the 10-year yield (US10Y) is down 5 bps at 4.25%. This is despite inflation expectations remaining high due to tariffs and immigration policies, indicating that bond traders are focusing more on long-term growth concerns.
Bigger picture: The odds of a recession remain low, but there are signs of economic slowdown. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects the economy to contract 2.4% in the first quarter. “While the headline number is scary, and those more pessimistic have used it to build their case for an imminent recession, the details are far less ominous,” Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller said. “The sharp contraction was due largely to a huge trade deficit at the start of the year, which subtracted approximately 3.5% from GDP, as U.S. businesses ramped imports to front run Trump’s tariffs.” Take the WSB survey.
What else is happening…
Mark Carney, ex-central banker, to be Canada’s next prime minister.
House Republicans unveil spending bill to avert government shutdown.
Energy secretary to seek $20B to refill depleted strategic oil reserve.
MAHA push: RFK Jr., Big Food CEOs set for first high-stakes meeting.
Elon Musk calls on U.S. to exit NATO, stop paying for Europe’s defense.
Boeing (BA) required to face class-action shareholder suit, judge rules.
XPeng eyes mass production of flying cars, humanoid robots by 2026.
Chinese investors quietly invest millions in Elon Musk’s private firms.
China deflationary woes: Retail inflation falls for the first time in a year.
Merger Monday: Rocket (RKT) to acquire Redfin (RDFN) for $1.75B.
Today’s Economic Calendar
No events scheduled
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