Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mostly weak. Japan, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand posted big losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Norway, Hungary, Austria, Sweden and the Czech Republic are down the most. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: What is Gold Trying to Tell Us —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Start your engines
The clock is ticking down to “Liberation Day,” or the date on which President Trump will implement a slew of tariffs, including newly announced ones this week for the auto industry. Starting on April 2, the U.S. will apply a 25% tariff to imported passenger vehicles and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components). It’s an announcement that has rattled the car industry, which has spent decades integrating supply chains with Canada and Mexico, as well as elsewhere across the globe.
Under the microscope: Tracking how much of a car is “Made in America” is a complicated endeavor and can sometimes lead to surprising discoveries. There are many stages of production that cover the thousands of parts that go into a vehicle, including the raw material procurement, melting and castings, parts manufacturing and finishing, and quality control and testing. It’s not just the final assembly of components, or installing them into a vehicle, which is what most people think about when picturing auto manufacturing and production.
When factoring in all of these supply chains and parts, one might find “foreign” companies – like Honda (HMC) in Alabama and Toyota (TM) in Kentucky – that “make” cars which might be more “American” than some vehicles produced by Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA). And then, of course, there is Tesla (TSLA). The EV maker has notable final assembly facilities in California and Texas, and might benefit from the new tariffs, though it also sources motor and battery parts, raw materials, and components, outside of the U.S.
Fine print: The newly signed tariff order appears to recognize some of these complexities, and while it may make a dent in the closely aligned supply chains with Canada and Mexico, the complex logistics systems won’t be totaled (at least initially). “USMCA-compliant automobile parts will remain tariff-free until the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, establishes a process to apply tariffs to their non-U.S. content,” according to the White House Fact Sheet. “Importers of automobiles under the USMCA will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content.”
What else is happening…
February PCE report: The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is on tap.
Massively overvalued? CoreWeave (CRWV) downsizes IPO.
HHS plans to lay off as many as 10,000 full-time employees.
Lululemon’s (LULU) downbeat guidance weighs on shares.
Coffee set to get pricier as companies pass on costs to buyers.
Report: U.S. pauses funding to World Trade Organization.
Short report from Muddy Waters sinks AppLovin (APP).
Three Intel (INTC) board members are retiring amid turnaround.
Nippon pitches billions in investments to revive U.S. Steel (X) deal.
Wyoming starts testing its own stablecoin, targets launch in July.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment
12:15 PM Fed’s Barr Speech
01:00 PM Baker Hughes Rig Count
03:45 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Hong Kong, India, Malaysia and Indonesia were up; South Korea, Taiwan and Australia were down. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mostly down. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Germany, South Africa, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Austria and Sweden are down the most. Index futures in the States point to a down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: What is Gold Trying to Tell Us —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
A revival
The IPO market is starting to defrost in 2025 after several years of sluggish activity. Lower inflation, interest rate cuts, and a return to dealmaking (like Google’s $32B purchase of Wiz) are encouraging companies to return to the public markets. That’s especially true in sectors like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, where new offerings had been on pause pending more favorable conditions.
By the numbers: As investors wrap up the first quarter, 66 IPOs have been filed, marking a 27% increase from the same period last year, according to Renaissance Capital. There have also been 46 IPOs that priced in 2025, up 53% over Q1 of 2024. While headlines in the sector are definitely making waves and getting busier, the question is how well will the new IPOs perform?
Things have been more volatile recently given the uncertainty surrounding trade policy and the impact on supply chains. That could spell trouble for incoming IPOs, but could also give the companies more room to run should there be more clarity and a shift in investor sentiment. It’s also important to analyze each upcoming IPO as an individual investment, as not all are created equal.
Up next: Highly talked about AI cloud player CoreWeave (CRWV) is set to price shares tonight and begin trading on Friday. The hyperscaler, backed by Nvidia (NVDA), could raise as much as $3B at the high end of the proposed price range, though “mounting debt is raising red flags ahead of the IPO,” according to SA analyst Shot Caller. Other IPOs to watch in the weeks and months ahead include ticket reseller StubHub (STUB) and financial services company Klarna (KLAR). Check out the IPO Roundup each week on Seeking Alpha and monthly charts on M&A activity.
What else is happening…
25% tariffs on foreign-made autos… The good, the bad, and the ugly.
Japan, Canada vow to defend interests. S. Korea emergency meeting.
Doubling down: Trump warns of even greater tariffs for retaliation.
Utah law will require Apple, Google app stores to verify user ages.
New York state: Wall Street bonuses jump to record level in 2024.
Tesla to launch in Saudi Arabia next month as funding rift cools.
Retail blockbuster: Dollar Tree (DLTR) rallies on Family Dollar deal.
Trump may reduce tariffs for China to close TikTok (BDNCE) tie-up.
Premium push: Robinhood rolls out wealth management service.
Pfizer (PFE) reportedly faces probe related to COVID vaccine success.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM GDP Q4
08:30 AM International Trade in Goods (Advance)
08:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 AM Corporate Profits
08:30 AM Retail Inventories (Advance)
08:30 AM Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 AM Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
01:00 PM Results of $44B, 7-Year Note Auction
04:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
04:30 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
04:30 PM Fed’s Collins Speech
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the upside. Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia did well; India was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are mixed. Greece, South Africa, Hungary, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic are up; Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Israel and Sweden are down. Index futures in the States point to a flat or down open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: What is Gold Trying to Tell Us —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
All about the outlook
Moody’s is sounding the alarm on the U.S. fiscal picture again. The agency already downgraded America’s top credit rating, along with Fitch, following a debt ceiling battle on Capitol Hill in 2023, while S&P Global Ratings was the first to strip the U.S. government of its AAA score in 2011. The latest from Moody’s comes ahead of new estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, which will detail the government’s long-term economic and budget outlook on Thursday.
Quote: “The evolving U.S. government policy agenda on trade, immigration, taxes, federal spending and regulations could reshape parts of the U.S. and global economy with significant long-term consequences,” Moody’s declared. “Fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline” and there are “increasing risks that the deterioration in U.S. fiscal strength may no longer be fully offset by its extraordinary economic strength… In fact, fiscal weakening will likely persist even in very favorable economic and financial scenarios.”
Credit ratings play a critical role in debt affordability and seek to determine the ability and willingness of a corporation or sovereign government to service their bonds on time. However, there is plenty of criticism of the agencies over past missteps, like their trustworthy ratings for instruments responsible for the financial crisis. There is also a general lack of transparency or oversight surrounding their actual methodologies and quality credit assessments, while the big rating agencies are paid by the sellers of the securities they rate. Companies and sovereigns don’t have much of a choice when it comes to getting their bonds priced and raising debt, with the big rating firms’ status enshrined in current regulatory regimes.
Outlook: Moody’s has assigned a negative outlook to America’s top-notch AAA credit rating since November 2023, which was a controversial decision on Wall Street and came after a similar move by Fitch. “The U.S. is the most prosperous and secure nation on the planet, and has the best economy the world has ever seen,” JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said at the time. “There are a bunch of countries that are rated higher than us, like AAA, but they live under the American enterprise military system. It’s kind of ridiculous. The markets decide. It’s not the ratings agencies who make these big decisions.”
What else is happening…
GameStop (GME) rallies after saying it will buy bitcoin (BTC-USD).
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to idle parts of Michigan steel plant.
Measles cases exceed 320 in Texas; DC confirms case on Amtrak.
SA Sentiment: Readers scale back expectations for S&P 500 (SP500).
Canada halts Tesla rebate payments, moves to block future incentives.
Uranium stocks add to losses on Russia-Ukraine partial ceasefire.
Elliott sues Phillips 66 (PSX), seeking to force board nominations.
Anthropic scores win against music publishers in AI copyright case.
These companies are vying for Navy’s next-gen fighter jet contract.
SA Asks: What’s next for consulting firms amid federal contract cutbacks?
Today’s Economic Calendar
07:00 AM MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 AM Durable Goods
10:00 AM Fed’s Kashkari Speech
10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00 AM Survey of Business Uncertainty
01:10 PM Fed’s Musalem Speech
02:00 PM Treasury Buyback Results
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were split. Taiwan, New Zealand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore did well; Hong Kong, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently doing great. The UK, Denmark, Poland, France, Turkey, Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Norway, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Portugal are leading. Index futures in the States point to a positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: What is Gold Trying to Tell Us —————
The dollar is down. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
New asset class?
Massachusetts is going after Robinhood (HOOD) over its decision to expand its trading offerings to prediction markets. The brokerage recently teamed up with Kalshi to offer event contracts after testing the waters in the 2024 presidential election and a similar push for Super Bowl LIX. While the new prediction hub on Robinhood is focused on things like the NCAA March Madness tournament, there are plans to eventually expand into economic events such as corporate earnings and Fed rates, which are already offered on Kalshi’s website.
Quote: “This is just another gimmick from a company that’s very good at gimmicks to lure investors away from sound investing,” said Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin, adding that Robinhood was “linking a gambling event on a popular sports event that’s especially popular to young people to a brokerage account.”
The state’s securities regulator has sent over a subpoena for details on how many of Robinhood’s users in Massachusetts have requested to trade college sports events. Don’t forget that it also went after Robinhood in 2020, accusing the platform of encouraging risky trades among inexperienced investors via “gamification” strategies, and later secured a $7.5M settlement for the claims, as well as a data security breach in 2021. This time around the accusations are centering around “gambling,” though it might be harder to prove, especially for financial derivatives that are listed on a CFTC-registered exchange.
Gambling or investing? Robinhood is making the case that prediction markets are the future for traders, and has even called them an innovative asset class. “Instead of betting against the house, this is an exchange where buyers and sellers are meeting,” according to CEO Vlad Tenev, similar to futures contracts that are used for commodities or hedging portfolios. Others point to differences in price discovery and the liquidity offered by traditional derivatives, and argue that prediction markets aren’t generally based on solid research or hedging models, but might be the latest iteration of gambling services masked with a financial name (remember binary options?).
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Check out the latest monthly sentiment poll.
FBI launches taskforce to investigate attacks against Tesla (TSLA).
IPO Roundup: CoreWeave (CRWV), StubHub (STUB) and more.
NBC (CMCSA) looking to get $7M for each Super Bowl LX ad.
Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) co-CEO dies due to cardiac arrest.
Trump Media (DJT) to partner with Crypto.com for America-first ETFs.
Report: Boeing (BA) seeks to undo plea deal in 737 Max criminal case.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) soars 30% on lunar missions, data services.
End of the road: Kenworth to discontinue the iconic W900 after 6 decades.
Crude oil gains amid secondary tariffs on Venezuelan oil… Pharma next?
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:40 AM Fed’s Kugler Speech
09:00 AM S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
09:00 AM FHFA House Price Index
09:05 AM Fed’s Williams Speech
10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:00 AM Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
01:00 PM Results of $69B, 2-Year Note Auction
01:00 PM Money Supply
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Good morning. Happy Monday. Hope you had a good weekend.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. Hong Kong and India did well, but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mostly up. Poland, Turkey, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Austria, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic are up; Denmark and Switzerland are down. Index futures in the States point to a relatively big gap up open for the cash market.
————— Free Online Course: Mini Masterclass in Trading —————
The dollar is unchanged. Oil and copper are up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Fall from grace
Once worth $6B after its SPAC merger in 2021, 23andMe (ME) has filed for bankruptcy protection, with a current market valuation of just under $50M. The company led by Anne Wojcicki had promised to revolutionize the healthcare industry with its affordable DNA tests, which detailed genetic lineage and were set to develop drugs that were tailored from the company’s research. The FDA was also once on board, granting 23andMe approval to provide health information to customers based on their DNA, resulting in a surge of genotyped customers that reached into the millions.
Spit kit: The biggest issue facing the company is that it has never reported a net profit. No successful follow-up products or subscriptions were developed with pharma partner GSK (GSK), and the therapeutics development team was slashed in half by mid-2023 as interest rates rose and funding dried up. A massive data breach later that year also exposed the profile information of 6.9M users, nearly half of 23andMe’s reported customers. Trust in the firm was lost, with the stock continuing to slide, and the company eventually announced a restructuring last November that cut its workforce by 40% and stopped the development of all its therapies.
While Wojcicki has explored strategic alternatives, including attempts to take the company private, her bids were rejected by 23andMe’s board. Wojcicki is now out as CEO, but she hopes the move will put her in the “best position to pursue the company as an independent bidder.” In the meantime, 23andMe has secured up to $35M in debtor-in-possession financing to support ongoing operations, with CFO Joe Selsavage serving as interim CEO to help the struggling firm “maximize the value of its business” during the sale process. 23andMe (ME) -44% to $1.00/share in premarket trading.
Thought bubble: 23andMe was only one of the hundreds of SPAC mergers that rode the trading boom of the post-COVID era – only to later go bust. Some notable others include WeWork, Virgin Orbit, Nikola, and Lordstown Motors, and more have issued “going-concern” warnings. It’s a sign that many of these blank-check companies were not yet ready for prime time, with Investing Group Leader Dane Bowler warning of the risks during the height of the boom in Beware The SPAC: How They Work And Why They Are Bad.
What else is happening…
Boeing (BA) needed the F-47 win… Which defense stocks are attractive?
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney calls for election on April 28.
Did Chevron (CVX) pay millions to Venezuela in secret deal with Biden?
Apple (AAPL) eyes adding cameras to watches to power AI features.
Nvidia (NVDA) GTC 2025: Here’s a look at the winners and losers.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to boost U.S. investments to over $55B.
Trump team weighs privatization of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac.
Next tariffs may be more targeted than previously threatened.
Ticketing platform StubHub files for IPO, eyes $726B opportunity.
Top U.S. officials and second lady make a visit to Greenland.
George Foreman, heavyweight champion and businessman, dies at 76.
Today’s Economic Calendar
08:30 AM Chicago Fed National Activity Index
09:45 AM PMI Composite Flash
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