Good morning. Happy Friday.
The Asian/Pacific markets leaned to the downside. China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines were weak. New Zealand did well. Europe, Africa and the Middle East currently lean down. Germany and Switzerland are doing well; Poland, Turkey, Greece, South Africa, and the Czech Republic are down. Futures in the States point towards a moderate gap down open for the cash market.
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The dollar is up. Oil is down; copper is up. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are flat. Bitcoin is up slightly.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Shift in identity
The “EU Digital Identity Wallet” is set to roll out next year, which will offer the ability for citizens to prove who they are online without giving over their information to external websites. The effort is being aimed at an increasingly digitized world, and will impact everything from travel to ordering prescriptions from pharmacies. The wallet would also give the ability to store verified electronic documents, like tax forms, notarized filings, and personal work certifications, as well as driving licenses and payment cards.
Backdrop: The latest project followed the adoption of the eIDAS regulation in 2014. In 2021, the European Commission proposed a revision called the European Digital Identity Framework, which was updated last year to lay down the rules for the core functionalities and certification of eID Wallets. The latter will be recognized throughout Europe, assisting with domestic and cross-border transactions without the need to remember countless passwords.
Ahead of the launch of the “EU Digital Identity Wallet,” the bloc has revealed that a new white label age-verification app will be out by the summer. The latter could allow for stricter policing and protections for minors online, helping to shield them from accessing harmful content and websites. Services like Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), GOOGL) and Meta (META) are already being probed by the EU under the Digital Markets Act, and the latest push toward digital identification may give fresh impetus to those investigations.
Privacy concerns? It may only be a matter of time before the “EU Digital Identity Wallet” is required by the government or is demanded by the private sector as a strong form of identification. Untold amounts of personal information, transactions, and other data – all stored under one framework – could become a hacker’s paradise despite selective disclosure capabilities. There are also worries about mass surveillance and the potential for rating systems or scores, though others say that ship has sailed a long time ago for any modern digital economy.
What else is happening…
Trump meets with Powell before release of inflation gauge.
Federal appeals court issues stay on tariffs ruling.
Bessent: U.S.-China talks stalled, presidents need to weigh in.
Costco outpaces Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) in the U.S.
Dell (DELL) pops after raising forecast on strong AI demand.
Germany weighs 10% tax on internet giants like Google (GOOG).
JetBlue (JBLU) and United Airlines (UAL) link loyalty programs.
SEC ends legal fight with Binance amid softer stance on crypto.
Meta (META) partners with Anduril to develop XR Army headsets.
Tariff hit: Gap (GAP) warns on profit, Best Buy (BBY) dims outlook.
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Good morning. Happy Thursday.
The Asian/Pacific markets did well overall. Japan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea posted big gains. New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East are currently mixed. France, South Africa, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are up; Poland, Greece, and Hungary are down. Futures in the States point to moderate gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is down slightly. Oil is flat; copper is up. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Blocked (for now)
Were President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs legal? Apparently not, according to a three-judge panel at the U.S. Court of International Trade. It means that most of Trump’s hefty levies – including fentanyl-based ones on Canada, Mexico and China – cannot go into effect, taking away one of his quickest negotiating tools to govern trade. While stocks continue to applaud the latest pause in tariffs (TACO trade?), the White House submitted an immediate appeal to the ruling and was given 10 days to issue new orders based on the permanent injunction.
Backdrop: In April, Trump cited a 1977 law – the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – to set 10% duties on all imports, with even higher percentages for countries that had higher trade deficits with the U.S. IEEPA has been used in recent decades to implement sanctions or commerce controls for threats that can constitute a national emergency, while trade authority continued to be relinquished by Congress. Trump has argued that trade deficits constitute a “national emergency,” which is at the root of all international trade talks currently taking place with the U.S.
“An unlimited delegation of tariff authority would constitute an improper abdication of legislative power to another branch of government… That use is impermissible not because it is unwise or ineffective, but because [federal law] does not allow it,” the judges wrote in response to lawsuits filed by the Liberty Justice Center and a group of 12 attorneys general from Democratic states. “The judicial coup is out of control,” responded White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, while Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai declared, “It is not for unelected judges to decide how to properly address a national emergency.”
What’s next: Industry-specific tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum will remain in place given that those were instituted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. For the other tariffs, the White House will likely continue appealing the case to the Supreme Court, or could impose more “restricted” tariffs in the meantime. The administration might also pursue the levies under other legal frameworks like Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which was the basis of China-based tariffs during Trump’s first term in office.
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What else is happening…
Nvidia (NVDA) results top expectations despite China controls.
FOMC: ‘Unusually elevated’ uncertainty in economic outlook.
Tesla (TSLA) sets robotaxi launch date; Musk exits DOGE.
Salesforce (CRM) climbs as earnings demonstrate AI traction.
Meta (META) to expand retail footprint to drive wearable sales.
Trump vows to maintain guarantees for Fannie and Freddie.
Stellantis names new CEO, hits brakes on project with Amazon.
GameStop (GME) pivot: Ryan Cohen talks upside and bitcoin.
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) pulls outlook, but splashes out on rhode.
Sources: Here are Putin’s demands to end the war in Ukraine.
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Good morning. Happy Wednesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed with minimal movement. South Korea and the Philippines did well; New Zealand was weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. Poland, Greece, Hungary, Israel and Saudi Arabia are up; Denmark, Switzerland and Spain are down. Futures in the States point to positive open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver are up. Bonds are down. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
On tap
It’s the most anticipated earnings announcement of the season. Nvidia (NVDA) will report its latest quarterly results today, marking the last “Magnificent 7” member to reveal its numbers. Keep in mind that it might be a complicated report to digest. A number of recent developments have impacted the most dominant player in the AI industry, which has led the pack with sheer computing power and efficiency.
Sifting through the noise: Nvidia will likely continue its double-beat streak, which it has maintained for the last seven quarters, but investors will be more tuned in to gross margins and levels of growth. Shareholders also want more clarity surrounding China, which should make for lots of discussion during the post-earnings call with CEO Jensen Huang. Nvidia had previously warned of a $5.5B writeoff due to export controls on its H20 chips and related hardware, so stay tuned on what that means for guidance going forward.
While a new China-compliant or repurposed chip might be in the making, new markets are also opening. President Trump’s visit to the Middle East secured Nvidia a place in the Stargate Project for the UAE, while the company will also be selling its GPUs to Saudi Arabia. As a result, capital expenditures will be even more important than usual, so keep an eye on whether those forecasts will fall in line with annual guidance.
About the stock: Along with the Mag7, Nvidia shares have staged a big comeback following the pause in “Liberation Day” tariffs. Trading at $135/share, NVDA is now unchanged YTD, and the results today will determine whether it can juice the broader market to fresh highs. Options trading already indicates that big price swings could be in store, with a gain or loss of as much as 7% for the AI chipmaker after the closing bell.
What else is happening…
WSB survey results: Check out the latest Seeking Alpha Sentiment.
Apple (AAPL) is planning a dedicated app for video games.
Chevron (CVX) granted narrow license for Venezuela assets.
Here’s how crude oil is behaving as OPEC+ meets.
Backtracking on EVs, GM to invest in V-8 engine production.
Global easing: New Zealand marks sixth consecutive rate cut.
India greenlights fighter jet project amid regional tensions.
Block (XYZ) to introduce bitcoin (BTC-USD) payments on Square.
Southwest (LUV) lands an upgrade amid recent strategy changes.
COVID shot recommendations for children and pregnant women?
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Good morning. Happy Tuesday.
The Asian/Pacific markets were mixed. Japan, Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore did well; China, India, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle East lean to the upside. The UK, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Norway, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic are up; Turkey and Saudi Arabia are down. Futures in the States point to big gap up open for the cash market.
————— VIDEO: State of the Market —————
The dollar is up. Oil and copper are down. Gold and silver are down. Bonds are up. Bitcoin is up.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha…
Eye on Japan
Japan has lost its status as the world’s top creditor nation for the first time in 34 years, even as the country has maintained a strong investment appetite abroad. While its overseas assets topped JPY 500T ($3.47T) for the first time ever in 2024, it still trailed Germany’s international investments.
The numbers: Japan’s net external assets totaled a record JPY 533.05T (~$3.71T) in 2024, up 12.9% from a year ago, driven by a weaker yen and increased investments abroad. However, Germany’s net external assets stood at JPY 569.65T (~$3.96T) last year, benefiting from a significant trade surplus. “Given that Japan’s net external assets have also been steadily increasing, the ranking alone should not be taken as a sign that Japan’s position has changed significantly,” said Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato.
Bond market: In other news, Japan’s finance ministry is reportedly considering trimming super-long bond issuance and has sent out a questionnaire to seek input from several market participants. This follows last week’s auction of 20-year government bonds, which attracted the weakest demand in over a decade.
The move comes as Japan seeks to unwind its ultra-loose monetary policy, which has pushed domestic bond yields to multi-year highs and is raising concerns over higher debt-servicing costs. “The recent fragility in the Japanese government bond market seems to have justifiably spooked the finance ministry into action,” said John Hardy, global head of macro strategy at Saxo, adding that “bond vigilantes were clearly on strike beyond the 10-year maturity in JGB auctions.” Take the WSB survey here.
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What else is happening…
Trump delays EU tariffs, reprieve lifts market sentiment.
Tesla (TSLA) struggles in Europe as April sales plunge.
Volvo Cars (OTCPK:VOLAF) to lay off 3,000 workers.
Southwest’s (LUV) checked bag fees kick in this week.
Trump Media (DJT) to raise $3B to spend on crypto.
Russia’s aerial attacks on Ukraine draw Trump’s ire.
France and Vietnam ink major deals, new Airbus order.
European port congestion threatens shipping costs.
SA Asks: What are the best robotaxi stocks now?
Goldman cuts forecast for weight loss drug market.
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